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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Graph Representation Learning for Dengue Forecasting

In 2017, the largest recorded dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka’s history occurred. Since then, dengue has continued to threaten national health across Sri Lanka. The development of an effective Early Warning System (EWS) for dengue outbreaks is essential for Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Health to take preventative measures. We propose the use of Graph Neural Networks as EWS. Using earth observational data from NASAs global satellites and dengue incidence data from Sri Lanka s Ministry of Health, we developed a series of traditional and graph representation EWS to forecast Dengue cases across Sri Lanka’s 25 districts between 2013 and 2022. We demonstrate empirically that Graph Neural Networks which incorporate spatiotemporal relations significantly outperform traditional EWS such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our source code is available on GitHub and will be provided in the final submission.

Graph Neural Networks↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Staged progression epidemic models for the transmission of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) with treatment

We develop and analyze a stage-progression compartmental model to study the emerging invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS bloodstream infections are often fatal, and the diverse and non-specific clinical features of iNTS make it difficult to diagnose. We focus our study on identifying approaches that can reduce the incidence of new infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, transmission and mortality are correlated with the ongoing HIV epidemic and severe malnutrition. We use our model to quantify the impact that increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infected adults and reducing malnutrition in children would have on mortality from iNTS in the population. We consider immunocompromised subpopulations in the region with major risk factors for mortality, such as malaria and malnutrition among children and HIV infection and ART coverage in both children and adults. We parameterize the progression rates between infection stages using the branching probabilities and estimated time spent at each stage. We interpret the basic reproduction number R 0 as the total contribution from an infinite infection loop produced by the asymptomatic carriers in the infection chain. The results indicate that the asymptomatic HIV+ adults without ART serve as the driving force of infection for the iNTS epidemic. We conclude that the worst disease outcome is among the pediatric population, which has the highest infection rates and death counts. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the most effective strategies to reduce iNTS mortality in the studied population are to improve the ART coverage among high-risk HIV+ adults and reduce malnutrition among children.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Post-Combat-Injury Opioid Prescription and Alcohol Use Disorder in the Military

Previous studies have identified combat exposure and combat traumatic experience as problematic drinking risk factors. Increasing evidence suggests that opioid use increases the risk of alcohol use disorder. This study investigated the association between opioid prescription use after injury and (1) alcohol use disorder and (2) severity of alcohol use disorder among deployed military servicemembers. Deidentified health records data of 9,029 deployed servicemembers from a retrospective cohort study were analyzed. Data were randomly selected from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry and included servicemembers with combat injuries during deployment in Iraq or Afghanistan (2002–2016). Pharmacy records and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision diagnosis codes were used. Three groups were identified (no opioid prescription use, nonpersistent opioid prescription use, and persistent opioid prescription use) and were compared on the basis of alcohol use disorder risk using Cox proportional hazard models. Data analyses were performed in 2021. Of the 9,029 servicemembers with combat injury, 2,262 developed alcohol use disorder (1,322 developed severe alcohol use disorder). Compared with no opioid prescription use, increased alcohol use disorder risk was associated with persistent opioid prescription use, with a hazard ratio of 1.13 (95% CI=1.02, 1.26). After covariate adjustment, increased risk remained statistically significant (hazards ratio=1.24; 95% CI=1.10, 1.39). There was no significant difference in alcohol use disorder risk between no opioid prescription use and nonpersistent opioid prescription use. The risk of severe alcohol use disorder did not vary by opioid use among servicemembers with alcohol use disorder diagnosis. Furthermore, the findings of the study suggest that the incidence of alcohol use disorder was higher among injured servicemembers with persistent opioid prescription use than among those without opioid use. If replicated in prospective studies, the findings highlight the need for clinicians to consider the current and history of alcohol use of patients in initiating treatment involving opioids.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coccidioides undetected in soils from agricultural land and uncorrelated with time or the greater soil fungal community on undeveloped land

Coccidioidomycosis is a typically respiratory fungal disease that, in the United States, occurs primarily in Arizona and California. In California, most coccidioidomycosis cases occur in the San Joaquin Valley, a primarily agricultural region where the disease poses a risk for outdoor workers. We collected 710 soil samples and 265 settled dust samples from nine sites in the San Joaquin Valley and examined how Coccidioides detection varied by month, site, and the presence and abundance of other fungal species. We detected Coccidioides in 89 of 238 (37.4%) rodent burrow soil samples at five undeveloped sites and were unable to detect Coccidioides in any of 472 surface and subsurface soil samples at four agricultural sites. In what is the largest sampling effort undertaken on agricultural land, our results provide no evidence that agricultural soils in the San Joaquin Valley harbor Coccidioides . We found no clear association between Coccidioides and the greater soil fungal community, but we identified 19 fungal indicator species that were significantly associated with Coccidioides detection in burrows. We also did not find a seasonal pattern in Coccidioides detection in the rodent burrow soils we sampled. These findings suggest both the presence of a spore bank and that coccidioidomycosis incidence may be more strongly associated with Coccidioides dispersal than Coccidioides growth. Finally, we were able to detect Coccidioides in only five of our 265 near-surface settled dust samples, one from agricultural land, where Coccidioides was undetected in soils, and four from undeveloped land, where Coccidioides was common in the rodent burrow soils we sampled. Our ability to detect Coccidioides in few settled dust samples indicates that improved methods are likely needed moving forward, though raises questions regarding aerial dispersal in Coccidioides , whose key transmission event likely occurs over short distances in rodent burrows from soil to naïve rodent lungs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Environmental and Socio-Demographic Determinants of Dengue Fever in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

Dengue fever has increased exponentially in Sri Lanka, from 24.4 cases per 100,000 in 2003 to 165.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. Although early warning systems using predictor models have been previously developed in other settings, it is important to develop such models in each local setting. Further, the ability of these models to be applicable at smaller geographic units will enhance current vector control and disease surveillance measures. The aim of this paper was to identify environmental and socio-economic status (SES) risk factors that may predict dengue fever at the Gram Niladhari Divisions (GND) level (smallest administrative unit) in Colombo city, Sri Lanka. These factors included landcover classes, amount of vegetation, population density, water access and neighborhood SES as determined by roof type. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to develop the prediction model. A total 55 GND units covering an area of 37 sq km were investigated. We found that GND units with decreased vegetation, higher built-up area, higher population density and poor access to tap-water supply were associated with high risk of dengue; the pertinent GND units were concentrated in the center of the city. This is the first study in Sri Lanka to include both environmental and socio-demographic factors in prediction models for dengue fever. The methodology may be useful in enhancing ongoing dengue fever control measures in the country, and to be extended to other countries in the region that have an increasing incidence of dengue fever.

Tipre, Meghan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Risk of Cardiac Rhythm Problems During Spaceflight

NASA has concerns regarding the incidence and clinical significance of cardiac arrhythmias that could occur during long-term exposure to the spaceflight environment, such as on the International Space Station (ISS) or during a prolonged (e.g., up to 3 years) sojourn to Mars or on the Moon. There have been some anecdotal reports and a few documented cases of cardiac arrhythmias in space, including one documented episode of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The potential catastrophic nature of a sudden cardiac death in the remote space environment has led to concerns from the early days of the space program that spaceflight might be arrhythmogenic. Indeed, there are known and well-defined changes in the cardiovascular system with spaceflight: a) plasma volume is reduced, b) left ventricular mass is decreased, and c) the autonomic nervous system adapts to the weightless environment. Combined, these physiologic adaptations suggest that changes in cardiac structure and neuro-humoral environment during spaceflight could alter electrical conduction, although the evidence supporting this contention consists mostly of minor changes in QT interval (the time between the start of the Q wave and the end of the T wave on an electrocardiogram tracing) in a small number of astronauts after long-duration spaceflight. Concurrent with efforts by NASA Medical Operations to refine and improve screening techniques relevant to arrhythmias and cardiovascular disease, as NASA enters the era of exploration-class missions it will be critical to determine with the highest degree of certainty whether spaceflight by itself alters cardiac structure and function sufficiently to increase the risk of arrhythmias.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

SAR backscatter from coniferous forest gaps

A study is in progress comparing Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) backscatter from coniferous forest plots containing gaps to backscatter from adjacent gap-free plots. Issues discussed are how do gaps in the range of 400 to 1600 sq m (approximately 4-14 pixels at intermediate incidence angles) affect forest backscatter statistics and what incidence angles, wavelengths, and polarizations are most sensitive to forest gaps. In order to visualize the slant-range imaging of forest and gaps, a simple conceptual model is used. This strictly qualitative model has led us to hypothesize that forest radar returns at short wavelengths (eg., C-band) and large incidence angles (e.g., 50 deg) should be most affected by the presence of gaps, whereas returns at long wavelengths and small angles should be least affected. Preliminary analysis of 1989 AIRSAR data from forest near Mt. Shasta supports the hypothesis. Current forest backscatter models such as MIMICS and Santa Barbara Discontinuous Canopy Backscatter Model have in several cases correctly predicted backscatter from forest stands based on inputs of measured or estimated forest parameters. These models do not, however, predict within-stand SAR scene texture, or 'intrinsic scene variability' as Ulaby et al. has referred to it. For instance, the Santa Barbara model, which may be the most spatially coupled of the existing models, is not truly spatial. Tree locations within a simulated pixel are distributed according to a Poisson process, as they are in many natural forests, but tree size is unrelated to location, which is not the case in nature. Furthermore, since pixels of a simulated stand are generated independently in the Santa Barbara model, spatial processes larger than one pixel are not modeled. Using a different approach, Oliver modeled scene texture based on an hypothetical forest geometry. His simulated scenes do not agree well with SAR data, perhaps due to the simple geometric model used. Insofar as texture is the expression of biological forest processes, such as succession and disease, and physical ones, such as fire and wind-throw, it contains useful information about the forest, and has value in image interpretation and classification. Forest gaps are undoubtedly important contributors to scene variance. By studying the localized effects of gaps on forest backscatter, guided by our qualitative model, we hope to understand more clearly the manner in which spatial heterogeneities in forests produce variations in backscatter, which collectively give rise to scene texture.

Day, John L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Signature of Many-Body Localization of Phonons in Strongly Disordered Superlattices

Many-body localization (MBL) has attracted significant research attention due to its immunity to thermalization, role in logarithmic entanglement entropy growth, and opportunities to reach exotic quantum orders. However, experimental realization of MBL in solid-state systems has remained challenging. Here we report evidence of a possible phonon MBL phase in disordered GaAs/AlAs superlattices. Through grazing-incidence inelastic X-ray scattering, we observe a strong deviation of the phonon population from equilibrium in disordered samples doped with ErAs nanodots at low temperature, signaling a departure from thermalization. This behavior occurs within finite phonon energy and wavevector windows, suggesting a localization-thermalization crossover. We support our observation by proposing a theoretical model for the effective phonon Hamiltonian in disordered superlattices, and showing that it can be mapped exactly to a disordered 1D Bose-Hubbard model with a known MBL phase. The large on-site repulsion qualitatively explains the experimental findings. Furthermore, our work provides mode-resolved experimental evidence of phonon localization, potentially extending the scope of MBL to disordered solid-state systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing Exogenous Surfactant as a Pulmonary Delivery Vehicle for Chicken Cathelicidin-2

The rising incidence of antibiotic-resistant lung infections has instigated a much-needed search for new therapeutic strategies. One proposed strategy is the use of exogenous surfactants to deliver antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), like CATH-2, to infected regions of the lung. CATH-2 can kill bacteria through a diverse range of antibacterial pathways and exogenous surfactant can improve pulmonary drug distribution. Unfortunately, mixing AMPs with commercially available exogenous surfactants has been shown to negatively impact their antimicrobial function. It was hypothesized that the phosphatidylglycerol component of surfactant was inhibiting AMP function and that an exogenous surfactant, with a reduced phosphatidylglycerol composition would increase peptide mediated killing at a distal site. To better understand how surfactant lipids interacted with CATH-2 and affected its function, isothermal titration calorimetry and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy as well as bacterial killing curves against Pseudomonas aeruginosa were utilized. Additionally, the wet bridge transfer system was used to evaluate surfactant spreading and peptide transport. Phosphatidylglycerol was the only surfactant lipid to significantly inhibit CATH-2 function, showing a stronger electrostatic interaction with the peptide than other lipids. Although diluting the phosphatidylglycerol content in an existing surfactant, through the addition of other lipids, significantly improved peptide function and distal killing, it also reduced surfactant spreading. A synthetic phosphatidylglycerol-free surfactant however, was shown to further improve CATH-2 delivery and function at a remote site. Based on these in vitro experiments synthetic phosphatidylglycerol-free surfactants seem optimal for delivering AMPs to the lung.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗