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NESC Peer-Review of the Flight Rationale for Expected Debris Report

Since the loss of Columbia on February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) has significantly improved the understanding of launch and ascent debris, implemented hardware modifications to reduce debris, and conducted tests and analyses to understand the risks associated with expected debris. The STS-114 flight rationale for expected debris relies on a combination of all three of these factors. A number of design improvements have been implemented to reduce debris at the source. The External Tank (ET) thermal protection system (TPS) foam has been redesigned and/or process improvements have been implemented in the following locations: the bipod closeout, the first ten feet of the liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank protuberance air load (PAL) ramp, and the LH2 tank-to-intertank flange closeout. In addition, the forward bipod ramp has been eliminated and heaters have been installed on the bipod fittings and the liquid oxygen (LO2) feedline forward bellows to prevent ice formation. The Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) bolt catcher has been redesigned. The Orbiter reaction control system (RCS) thruster cover "butcher paper" has been replaced with a material that sheds at a low velocity. Finally, the pad area has been cleaned to reduce debris during lift-off.

Harris, Charles E.↗

Characterization of Space Shuttle Ascent Debris Aerodynamics Using CFD Methods

An automated Computational Fluid Dynamics process for determining the aerodynamic Characteristics of debris shedding from the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle during ascent is presented. This process uses Cartesian fully-coupled, six-degree-of-freedom simulations of isolated debris pieces in a Monte Carlo fashion to produce models for the drag and crossrange behavior over a range of debris shapes and shedding scenarios. A validation of the Cartesian methods against ballistic range data for insulating foam debris shapes at flight conditions, as well as validation of the resulting models, are both contained. These models are integrated with the existing shuttle debris transport analysis software to provide an accurate and efficient engineering tool for analyzing debris sources and their potential for damage.

Murman, Scott M.↗

Improving The Near-Earth Meteoroid And Orbital Debris Environment Definition With LAD-C

To improve the near-Earth meteoroid and orbital debris environment definition, a large area particle sensor/collector is being developed to be placed on the International Space Station (ISS). This instrument, the Large Area Debris Collector (LAD-C), will attempt to record meteoroid and orbital debris impact flux, and capture the same particles with aerogel. After at least one year of deployment, the whole system will be brought back for additional laboratory analysis of the captured meteoroids and orbital debris. This project is led by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) while the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Space Test Program (STP) is responsible for the integration, deployment, and retrieval of the system. Additional contributing team members of the consortium include the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, JAXA Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Chiba University (Japan), ESA Space Debris Office, University of Kent (UK), and University of California at Berkeley. The deployment of LAD-C on the ISS is planned for 2008, with the system retrieval in late 2009.

Liou, J.-C.↗

Improvements to NASA's Debris Assessment Software

NASA's Debris Assessment Software (DAS) has been substantially revised and expanded. DAS is designed to assist NASA programs in performing orbital debris assessments, as described in NASA s Guidelines and Assessment Procedures for Limiting Orbital Debris. The extensive upgrade of DAS was undertaken to reflect changes in the debris mitigation guidelines, to incorporate recommendations from DAS users, and to take advantage of recent software capabilities for greater user utility. DAS 2.0 includes an updated environment model and enhanced orbital propagators and reentry-survivability models. The ORDEM96 debris environment model has been replaced by ORDEM2000 in DAS 2.0, which is also designed to accept anticipated revisions to the environment definition. Numerous upgrades have also been applied to the assessment of human casualty potential due to reentering debris. Routines derived from the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool, Version 6 (ORSAT 6), determine which objects are assessed to survive reentry, and the resulting risk of human casualty is calculated directly based upon the orbital inclination and a future world population database. When evaluating reentry risks, the user may enter up to 200 unique hardware components for each launched object, in up to four nested levels. This last feature allows the software to more accurately model components that are exposed below the initial breakup altitude. The new DAS 2.0 provides an updated set of tools for users to assess their mission s compliance with the NASA Safety Standard and does so with a clear and easy-to-understand interface. The new native Microsoft Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is a vast improvement over the previous DOS-based interface. In the new version, functions are more-clearly laid out, and the GUI includes the standard Windows-style Help functions. The underlying routines within the DAS code are also improved.

Opiela, J.↗

Optical Observations of GEO Debris with Two Telescopes

For several years, the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan s 0.6/0.9-m Schmidt telescope on Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile has been used to survey the debris population at GEO in the visible regime. Magnitudes, positions, and angular rates are determined for GEO objects as they move across the telescope s field-of-view (FOV) during a 5-minute window. This short window of time is not long enough to determine a full six parameter orbit so usually a circular orbit is assumed. A longer arc of time is necessary to determine eccentricity and to look for changes in the orbit with time. MODEST can follow objects in real-time, but only at the price of stopping survey operations. A second telescope would allow for longer arcs of orbit to obtain the full six orbital parameters, as well as assess the changes over time. An additional benefit of having a second telescope is the capability of obtaining BVRI colors of the faint targets, aiding efforts to determine the material type of faint debris. For 14 nights in March 2007, two telescopes were used simultaneously to observe the GEO debris field. MODEST was used exclusively in survey mode. As objects were detected, they were handed off in near real-time to the Cerro Tololo 0.9-m telescope for follow-up observations. The goal was to determine orbits and colors for all objects fainter than R = 15th magnitude (corresponds to 1 meter in size assuming a 0.2 albedo) detected by MODEST. The hand-off process was completely functional during the final eight nights and follow-ups for objects from night-to-night were possible. The cutoff magnitude level of 15th was selected on the basis of an abrupt change in the observed angular rate distribution in the MODEST surveys. Objects brighter than 15th magnitude tend to lie on a well defined locus in the angular rate plane (and have orbits in the catalog), while fainter objects fill the plane almost uniformly. We need to determine full six-parameter orbits to investigate what causes this change in observed angular rates. Are these faint objects either the same population of high area-to-mass (A/M) objects on eccentric orbits as discovered by the ESA Space Debris Telescope (Schildknecht, et al. 2004), or are they just normal debris from breakups in GEO?

Seitzer, P.↗

Improving the Near-Earth Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Environment Definition with LADC

The Large Area Debris Collector (LADC) is a 10 m(sup 2) aerogel and acoustic sensor system designed to characterize and collect submillimeter micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the International Space Station (ISS). The project is led by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) with major collaboration by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center. The U.S. Department of Defense Space Test Program (STP) is responsible for the integration, deployment, and retrieval of the system. The deployment is scheduled for August 2007 with an orbital collection period of one to two years. The combined area time product of LADC will provide a much needed orbital debris population update in the size regime that is important to the safety community - 100 mm and larger. Another key element for LADC is the source identification of the collected samples. Impact features such as track length and track volume can be used to estimate the impact speed and direction of any selected residual embedded in aerogel. Acoustic sensors can provide impact timing and impact location information. The combined dynamical signatures make it possible to reconstruct the orbits of some of the collected samples and lead to their source identification. Compositional analysis on the residuals can also separate debris from meteoroids and provide additional population breakdown for orbital debris (e.g., Al, paint, steel, Al2O3). To maximize the science return and minimize potential contamination from other ISS modules, a careful selection of the location and orientation of LADC on the ISS is needed. Key issues and engineering constraints encountered during mission preparation, and the expected science return based on the mission configuration, are summarized in this paper.

Liou, J.-C.↗

Orbital Debris: the Growing Threat to Space Operations

For nearly 50 years the amount of man-made debris in Earth orbit steadily grew, accounting for about 95% of all cataloged space objects over the past few decades. The Chinese anti-satellite test in January 2007 and the accidental collision of two spacecraft in February 2009 created more than 4000 new cataloged debris, representing an increase of 40% of the official U.S. Satellite Catalog. The frequency of collision avoidance maneuvers for both human space flight and robotic operations is increasing along with the orbital debris population. However, the principal threat to space operations is driven by the smaller and much more numerous uncataloged debris. Although the U.S. and the international aerospace communities have made significant progress in recognizing the hazards of orbital debris and in reducing or eliminating the potential for the creation of new debris, the future environment is expected to worsen without additional corrective measures.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

Updating the NASA LEO Orbital Debris Environment Model with Recent Radar and Optical Observations and in Situ Measurements

The Low Earth Orbit (LEO, between 200 and 2000 km altitudes) debris environment has been constantly measured by NASA Johnson Space Center's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) since 1996 (Africano et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28826) and by Haystack and Haystack Auxiliary radars at MIT Lincoln Laboratory since 1990 (Settecerri et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28744). Debris particles as small as 3 mm can be detected by the radars and as small as 3 cm can be measured by LMT. Objects about 10 cm in diameter and greater are tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network. Much smaller (down to several micrometers) natural and debris particle populations can be estimated based on in situ measurements, such as Long Duration Exposure Facility, and based on analyses of returned surfaces, such as Hubble Space Telescope solar arrays, European Retrievable Carrier, and Space Shuttles. To increase our understanding of the current LEO debris environment, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA JSC has initiated an effort to improve and update the ORDEM96 model (Kessler et al. 1996, NASA TM-104825) utilizing the recently available data. This paper gives an overview of the new NASA orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000.

Liou, J.-C.↗

First Stage Solid Propellant Multi Debris Thermal Analysis

The crew launch vehicle considered for the Constellation (Cx) Program utilizes a first stage solid rocket motor. If an abort is initiated in first stage flight the Crew Module (CM) will separate and be pulled away from the launch vehicle via a Launch Abort System (LAS) in order to safely and quickly carry the crew away from the malfunction launch vehicle. Having aborted the mission, the launch vehicle will likely be destroyed via a Flight Termination System (FTS) in order to prevent it from errantly traversing back over land and posing a risk to the public. The resulting launch vehicle debris field, composed primarily of first stage solid propellant, poses a threat to the CM. The harsh radiative thermal environment induced by surrounding burning propellant debris may lead to CM parachute failure. A methodology, detailed herein, has been developed to address this concern and quantify the risk of first stage propellant debris leading to radiative thermal demise of the CM parachutes. Utilizing basic thermal radiation principles, a software program was developed to calculate parachute temperature as a function of time for a given abort trajectory and debris piece trajectory set. Two test cases, considered worst-case aborts with regard to launch vehicle debris environments, were analyzed using the simulation: an abort declared at Mach 1 and an abort declared at maximum dynamic pressure (Max Q). For both cases, the resulting temperature profiles indicated that thermal limits for the parachutes were not exceeded. However, short duration close encounters by single debris pieces did have a significant effect on parachute temperature, with magnitudes on the order of 10 s of degrees Fahrenheit. Therefore while these two test cases did not indicate exceedance of thermal limits, in order to quantify the risk of parachute failure due to radiative effects from the abort environment, a more thorough probability-based analysis using the methodology demonstrated herein must be performed.

Toleman, Benjamin M.↗

Engineering Challenges for Active Debris Removal

Recent modeling studies on the instability of the debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have underlined the need for active debris removal. A 2009 analysis by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office shows that, in order to maintain the LEO debris population at a constant level for the next 200 years, an active debris removal of about five objects per year is needed. The targets identified for removal are those with the highest mass and collision probability products in the environment. Many of these objects are spent upper stages with masses ranging from 1 to more than 8 metric tons, residing in several altitude regions and concentrated in about 10 inclination bands. To remove five of those objects on a yearly basis, in a cost-effective manner, represents many challenges in engineering, technology development, and operations. This paper outlines a conceptual end-to-end debris removal operation, including launch, precision tracking, rendezvous, stabilization (of the tumbling targets), capture, and deorbit of the targets; and highlights major challenges associated with the operations. Pros and cons of several proposed removal techniques are also evaluated.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

First Stage Solid Propellant Multiply Debris Thermal Analysis

Destruction of a solid rocket stage of a launch vehicle can create a thermal radiation hazard for an aborting crew module. This hazard was assessed for the Constellation Program (Cx) crew and launch vehicle concept. For this concept, if an abort was initiated in first stage flight, the Crew Module (CM) will separate and be pulled away from the malfunctioning launch vehicle via a Launch Abort System (LAS). Having aborted the mission, the launch vehicle will likely be destroyed via a Flight Termination System (FTS) in order to prevent it from errantly traversing back over land and posing a risk to the public. The resulting launch vehicle debris field, composed primarily of first stage solid propellant, poses a threat to the CM. The harsh radiative thermal environment, caused by surrounding burning propellant debris, may lead to CM parachute failure. A methodology, detailed herein, has been developed to address this concern and to quantify the risk of first stage propellant debris leading to the thermal demise of the CM parachutes. Utilizing basic thermal radiation principles, a software program was developed to calculate parachute temperature as a function of time for a given abort trajectory and debris piece trajectory set. Two test cases, considered worst case aborts with regard to launch vehicle debris environments, were analyzed using the simulation: an abort declared at Mach 1 and an abort declared at maximum dynamic pressure (Max Q). For both cases, the resulting temperature profiles indicated that thermal limits for the parachutes were not exceeded. However, short duration close encounters by single debris pieces did have a significant effect on parachute temperature. Therefore while these two test cases did not indicate exceedance of thermal limits, in order to quantify the risk of parachute failure due to radiative effects from the abort environment, a more thorough probability-based analysis using the methodology demonstrated herein must be performed.

Toleman, Benjamin M.↗

Spaceborne Sensors Track Marine Debris Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

Marine debris is a problem for coastal areas throughout the world, including the Gulf of Mexico. To aid the NOAA Marine Debris Program in monitoring marine debris dispersal and regulating marine debris practices, sea surface height and height anomaly data provided by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, were utilized to help assess trash and other discarded items that routinely wash ashore in southeastern Texas, at Padre Island National Seashore. These data were generated from the NASA radar altimeter satellites TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, and Jason 2, as well as the European altimeter satellites ERS-1, ERS-2 (European Remote Sensing Satellite), and ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite). Sea surface temperature data from MODIS were used to study of the dynamics of the Loop Current. Sea surface height and MODIS data analysis were used to show that warm water in the core of eddies, which periodically separate from the Loop Current, can be as high as 30 cm above the surrounding water. These eddies are known to directly transfer marine debris to the western continental shelf and the elevated area of water can be tracked using satellite radar altimeter data. Additionally, using sea surface height, geostrophic velocity, and particle path data, foretracking and backtracking simulations were created. These simulation runs demonstrated that marine debris on Padre Island National Seashore may arise from a variety of sources, such as commercial fishing/shrimping, the oil and gas industry, recreational boaters, and from rivers that empty into the Gulf of Mexico.

Reahard, Ross↗

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores "The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures in an operational setting."

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures in an operational setting.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

A Peculiar Class of Debris Disks from Herschel/DUNES: A Steep Fall Off in the Far Infrared

Context. The existence of debris disks around old main sequence stars is usually explained by continuous replenishment of small dust grains through collisions from a reservoir of larger objects. Aims. We present photometric data of debris disks around HIP 103389 (HD199260), HIP 100350 (HN Peg, HD206860), and HIP 114948 (HD 219482), obtained in the context of our Herschel Open TIme Key Program DUNES (DUst around NEarby Stars). Methods. We used Herschel/PACS to detect the thermal emission of the three debris disks with a 30 sigma sensitivity of a few mJy at l00 micron and 160 micron. In addition, we obtained Herschel/PACS photometric data at 70 micron for HIP 103389. These observations are complemented by a large variety of optical to far-infrared photometric data. Two different approaches are applied to reduce the Herschel data to investigate the impact of data reduction on the photometry. We fit analytical models to the available spectral energy distribution (SED) data using the fitting method of simulated therma1 annealing as well as a classical grid search method. Results. The SEDs of the three disks potentially exhibit an unusually steep decrease at wavelengths >= 70 micron. We investigate the significance of the peculiar shape of these SEDs and the impact on models of the disks provided it is real. Using grain compositions that have been applied successfully for modeling of many other debris disks, our modeling reveals that such a steep decrease of the SEDs in the long wavelength regime is inconsistent with a power-law exponent of the grain size distribution -3.5 expected from a standard equilibrium collisional cascade. In contrast, a steep grain size distribution or, alternatively an upper grain size in the range of few tens of micrometers are implied. This suggests that a very distinct range of grain sizes would dominate the thermal. emission of such disks. However, we demonstrate that the understanding of the data of faint sources obtained with Herschel is still incomplete and that the significance of our results depends on the version of the data reduction pipeline used. Conclusions. A new mechanism to produce the dust in the presented debris disks, deviations from the conditions required for a standard equilibrium collisional cascade (grain size exponent of -3.5), and/or significantly different dust properties would be necessary to explain the potentially steep SED shape of the three debris disks presented.

Ertel, S.↗

Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

Debris Disk Structure and Morphology as Revealed by Aggressive STIS Multi-Roll Coronagraphy: A New Look at Some Old Friends

We present new imaging results from a well-selected sample of II circumstellar debris disks, all with HST pedigree, using STIS visible-light 6-roll PSF-template subtracted coronagraphy (PSFTSC). These new observations, pushing HST to its highest levels of coronagraphic performance, simultaneously probe both the interior regions of these debris systems, with inner working distances < app 8 AU for half the stars in this sample (corresponding to the giant planet and Kuiper belt regions within our own solar system), and the exterior regions far beyond. These new images enable direct inter-comparison of the architectures of these exoplanetary debris systems in the context of our own Solar System: These observations also permit us, for the first time, to characterize material in these regions at high spatial resolution and identify disk sub-structures that are signposts of planet formation and evolution; in particular, asymmetries and non-uniform debris structures that signal the presence of co-orbiting perturbing planets, and dynamical interactions (e.g., resulting in posited small grain stripping and disk "pollution") with the ISM. We focus here on recently acquired and reduced images of he circumstellar debris systems about: AU Mic (edge-on, and @ 10 pc the closest star in our sample), HD 61005, HD 32297 and HD 15115 (all with morphologies strongly suggestive of ISM wind interactions), HD 181327 & HDI07146 (close to face-on with respectively narrow and broad debris rings), and MP Mus (a "mature" proto-planetary disk hosted by a cTTS). All of our objects were previously observed in the near-IR with inferior spatial resolution and imaging efficacy, but with NICMOS r = 0.3" inner working angle (IWA) comparable to STIS multi-roll coronagraphy. The combination of new optical and existing near-IR imaging can strongly constrain the dust properties, thus enabling an assessment of grain processing and planetesimal populations. These results will directly inform upon the posited planet formation mechanisms that occur after the approximately 10 My epoch of gas depletion, a time in our solar system when giant planets were migrating and terrestrial planets were forming, and directly test theoretical models of these processes. These observations lmiquely probe both into the interior regions of these systems and are sensitive to and spatially resolve low surface-brightness (SB) material at large stellocentric distances with spatial resolution comparable to ACS and with augmenting NICMOS near-IR disk photometry in hand.

Grady, Carol A↗

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publicly released within the last year. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper describes the population generation and categorization of both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population verification. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are presented and discussed. Future collaborative analysis is noted.

Krisko, P. H.↗