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NASA NTRS1998

Global tropospheric ozone investigations

Ozone (O3) is one of the most important trace gases in the troposphere, and it is responsible for influencing many critical chemical and radiative processes. Ozone contributes to the formation of the hydroxyl radical (OH), which is central to most chemical reactions in the lower atmosphere, and it absorbs UV, visible, and infrared radiation which affects the energy budget and atmospheric temperatures. In addition, O3 can be used as a tracer of atmospheric pollution and stratosphere troposphere exchange. At elevated concentrations, O3 can also produce detrimental biological and human health effects. The US National Research Council (NRC) Board on Sustainable Development reviewed the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) [NRC, 1995], and it identified tropospheric chemistry as one of the high priority areas for the USGCRP in the next decade. The NRC identified the following specific challenges in tropospheric chemistry. Although we understand the reason for the high levels of 03 over several regions of the world, we need to better establish the distribution of O3 in the troposphere in order to document and understand the changes in the abundance of global tropospheric O3. This information is needed to quantify the contribution of O3 to the Earth' s radiative balance and to understand potential impacts on the health of the biosphere. Having recognized the importance of particles in the chemistry of the stratosphere, we must determine how aerosols and clouds affect the chemical processes in the troposphere. This understanding is essential to predict the chemical composition of the atmosphere and to assess the resulting forcing effects in the climate system. We must determine if the self-cleansing chemistry of the atmosphere is changing as a result of human activities. This information is required to predict the rate at which pollutants are removed from the atmosphere. Over nearly two decades, airborne Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) systems have been used in over fifteen major field experiments conducted all over the world to address important atmospheric processes affecting the amount and distribution of 03 and aerosols across the troposphere. This paper discusses some of these wide-ranging field experiments and their results and presents a direction for future global studies of O3 and aerosols from space.

Browell, Edward V.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Turbulent separated flow past a backward-facing step: A critical evaluation of two-equation turbulence models

The ability of two-equation models to accurately predict separated flows is analyzed from a combined theoretical and computational standpoint. Turbulent flow past a backward facing step is chosen as a test case in an effort to resolve the variety of conflicting results that were published during the past decade concerning the performance of two-equation models. It is found that the errors in the reported predictions of the k-epsilon model have two major origins: (1) numerical problems arising from inadequate resolution, and (2) inaccurate predictions for normal Reynolds stress differences arising from the use of an isotropic eddy viscosity. Inadequacies in near wall modelling play a substantially smaller role. Detailed calculations are presented which strongly indicate the standard k-epsilon model - when modified with an independently calibrated anisotropic eddy viscosity - can yield surprisingly good predictions for the backstep problem.

Thangam, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Turbulent flow past a backward-facing step - A critical evaluation of two-equation models

Thangam, S.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Douglas, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Forecast Skill: Two Studies

This talk briefly describes two recent studies on the impact of soil moisture information on hydrological and meteorological prediction. While the studies utilize soil moisture derived from the integration of large-scale land surface models with observations-based meteorological data, the results directly illustrate the potential usefulness of satellite-derived soil moisture information (e.g., from SMOS and SMAP) for applications in prediction. The first study, the GEWEX- and ClIVAR-sponsored GLACE-2 project, quantifies the contribution of realistic soil moisture initialization to skill in subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and air temperature (out to two months). The multi-model study shows that soil moisture information does indeed contribute skill to the forecasts, particularly for air temperature, and particularly when the initial local soil moisture anomaly is large. Furthermore, the skill contributions tend to be larger where the soil moisture initialization is more accurate, as measured by the density of the observational network contributing to the initialization. The second study focuses on streamflow prediction. The relative contributions of snow and soil moisture initialization to skill in streamflow prediction at seasonal lead, in the absence of knowledge of meteorological anomalies during the forecast period, were quantified with several land surface models using uniquely designed numerical experiments and naturalized streamflow data covering mUltiple decades over the western United States. In several basins, accurate soil moisture initialization is found to contribute significant levels of predictive skill. Depending on the date of forecast issue, the contributions can be significant out to leads of six months. Both studies suggest that improvements in soil moisture initialization would lead to increases in predictive skill. The relevance of SMOS and SMAP satellite-based soil moisture information to prediction are discussed in the context of these studies.

Koster, Randal↗

NASA NTRS2019

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Temperature Material Property Data and Challenges to Thermal Process Model Predictions and In-Situ/Ex-Situ Measurements for Metallic Additive Manufacturing

Understanding and predicting performance properties of parts produced by metallic additive manufacturing has improved significantly over the past decade; however, difficult to measure material properties and process outcomes continue to be challenges. The qualification or certification of aerospace parts require extensive measures to quantify variable part properties in order to buy down the risk of component failure. The variability, inherent to the additive manufacturing, process adds unwanted uncertainty in the production of load critical structural components. Process modeling has proven valuable in providing predictions and context for understanding outcomes of the additive manufacturing process; however, these physically informed process models require material properties at temperatures that are difficult to measure and rarely available. Further, calibrating or validating such models is difficult because the process itself is challenging to measure. This talk will explore some of the challenges resulting from difficult to acquire input data by relating thermal process model predictions to in-situ and ex-situ optical microscopy measurements.

Process Model↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparisons of Solar Wind Coupling Parameters with Auroral Energy Deposition Rates

Measurement of the global rate of energy deposition in the ionosphere via auroral particle precipitation is one of the primary goals of the Polar UVI program and is an important component of the ISTP program. The instantaneous rate of energy deposition for the entire month of January 1997 has been calculated by applying models to the UVI images and is presented by Fillingim et al. In this session. A number of parameters that predict the rate of coupling of solar wind energy into the magnetosphere have been proposed in the last few decades. Some of these parameters, such as the epsilon parameter of Perrault and Akasofu, depend on the instantaneous values in the solar wind. Other parameters depend on the integrated values of solar wind parameters, especially IMF Bz, e.g. applied flux which predicts the net transfer of magnetic flux to the tail. While these parameters have often been used successfully with substorm studies, their validity in terms of global energy input has not yet been ascertained, largely because data such as that supplied by the ISTP program was lacking. We have calculated these and other energy coupling parameters for January 1997 using solar wind data provided by WIND and other solar wind monitors. The rates of energy input predicted by these parameters are compared to those measured through UVI data and correlations are sought. Whether these parameters are better at providing an instantaneous rate of energy input or an average input over some time period is addressed. We also study if either type of parameter may provide better correlations if a time delay is introduced; if so, this time delay may provide a characteristic time for energy transport in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system.

Elsen, R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling in-time Prognostics with Surrogate Modeling through Physics-enhanced Dynamic Mode Decomposition Method

Computational models provide essential quantitative tools for assessing and predicting the health and performance of physical systems. However, high-fidelity models are rarely used in real-time operations or large optimization loops, due to their time-intensive nature. A common approach to improving computational efficiency of prognosis is to employ surrogate models. Such models can significantly decrease computation time for some accuracy loss. In this context, use of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is proposed to generate surrogate models for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery discharge. DMD has been suggested and used successfully in the area of fluid dynamics for over a decade, but it has not been applied to the PHM domain, where far-ahead prediction of nonlinear behavior is crucial to propagate faults or predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL). For Li-ion battery health management, the standard application of DMD using only the observable quantities of interest was unable to capture the nonlinear discharge of batteries exhibited in lab testing. The Koopman theory, however, provides a mechanism to tradeoff low dimensional nonlinear models with high-dimensional linear ones in a DMD framework, by augmenting nonlinear state variables into the system representation. In this way, DMD allows for configurable simulation accuracy dependent on the dimensionality of the Koopman operator. For battery health management, we augmented the observable variables with the hidden states of a higher-fidelity physics model to build the DMD surrogate. In comparison to a high-fidelity model, the surrogate improved computational efficiency with only a minimal loss of accuracy, and enabled long-term prognostics horizons. A generalized method for this was implemented in the prog models python package.

prognostics and health management↗

NASA NTRS1996

Sulfur, Chlorine and Fluorine Degassing and Atmospheric Loading by the Roza eruption, Columbia River Basalt Group, Washington

In this study we attempt to quantify the amount of S, Cl and F released by the 1300 cu km Roza member (approximately 14.7 Ma) of the Columbia River Basalt Group, which was produced by a moderate-size flood basalt eruption in the mid-Miocene. Our results are the first indication of the potential atmospheric SO2 yield from a flood basalt eruption, and indicate the mechanism by which flood basalt eruptions may have seriously affected the environment. Glass inclusions in phenocrysts and quenched glass in products from various stages of the eruption were analyzed for concentrations of S, Cl and F and major elements. Glass inclusions contain 1965 +/- 110 ppm S, 295 +/- 65 ppm Cl and 1310 +/- 110 ppm F. Groundmass glass of Roza dike selvages contains considerably lower concentrations: 1110 +/- 90 ppm S, 245 +/- 30 ppm Cl and 1020 +/- 25 ppm F. Scoria clasts from near vent deposits contain 665 +/- 75 ppm S, 175 +/- 5 ppm Cl and 950 +/- 20 ppm F, and the groundmass glass of lava selvages contains 520 +/- 30 ppm S, 190 +/- 30 ppm Cl and 890 +/- 55 ppm F. In crystalline lava, the concentrations are 195 ppm S, 100 ppm Cl and 830 ppm F. Volatile element concentrations in these samples represent the progress of degassing through the eruption and can be used to estimate the potential amount of the volatiles S, Cl and F released by the magma into the atmosphere, as well as to evaluate the amount liberated by various phases of the eruption. The total amount of volatiles released by the Roza eruption is estimated to have been approximately 12,420 MtSO2, approximately 710 MtHCI and approximately 1780 MtHF. The Roza magma liberated approximately 9620 MtSO, (77% of the total volatile mass released), approximately 400 MtHCI (56%) and approximately 1450 MtHF (81%) at the vents and lofted by the eruption columns to altitudes of 7-13 km. Degassing of the lava is estimated to have released an additional approximately 2810 MtSO2, approximately 310 MtHCI and approximately 330 MtHF. The Roza eruption is likely to have lasted for approximately 10 years, indicating an annual H2SO4-mass loading of approximately 1800 Mt. Thus, the atmospheric perturbations associated with the Roza eruption may have been of the magnitude predicted for a severe "nuclear" or "volcanic" winter, but lasting up to a decade or more.

Thordarson, Th.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Ground-Based Gas-Liquid Flow Research in Microgravity Conditions: State of Knowledge

During the last decade, ground-based microgravity facilities have been utilized in order to obtain predictions for spacecraft system designers and further the fundamental understanding of two-phase flow. Although flow regime, pressure drop and heat transfer coefficient data has been obtained for straight tubes and a limited number of fittings, measurements of the void fraction, film thickness, wall shear stress, local velocity and void information are also required in order to develop general mechanistic models that can be utilized to ascertain the effects of fluid properties, tube geometry and acceleration levels. A review of this research is presented and includes both empirical data and mechanistic models of the flow behavior.

McQuillen, J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Direct Numerical Simulations of Transitional/Turbulent Wakes

The interest in transitional/turbulent wakes spans the spectrum from an intellectual pursuit to understand the complex underlying physics to a critical need in aeronautical engineering and other disciplines to predict component/system performance and reliability. Cylinder wakes have been studied extensively over several decades to gain a better understanding of the basic flow phenomena that are encountered in such flows. Experimental, computational and theoretical means have been employed in this effort. While much has been accomplished there are many important issues that need to be resolved. The physics of the very near wake of the cylinder (less than three diameters downstream) is perhaps the most challenging of them all. This region comprises the two detached shear layers, the recirculation region and wake flow. The interaction amongst these three components is to some extent still a matter of conjecture. Experimental techniques have generated a large percentage of the data that have provided us with the current state of understanding of the subject. More recently computational techniques have been used to simulate cylinder wakes, and the data from such simulations are being used to both refine our understanding of such flows as well as provide new insights. A few large eddy and direct numerical simulations (LES and DNS) of cylinder wakes have appeared in the literature in the recent past. These investigations focus on the low Reynolds number range where the cylinder boundary layer is laminar (sub-critical range). However, from an engineering point of view, there is considerable interest in the situation where the upper and/or lower boundary layer of an airfoil is turbulent, and these turbulent boundary layers separate from the airfoil to contribute to the formation of the wake downstream. In the case of cylinders, this only occurs at relatively large unit Reynolds numbers. However, in the case of airfoils, the boundary layer has the opportunity to transition to turbulence on the airfoil surface at a relatively lower unit Reynolds number because the characteristic length of the airfoil is typically one to two orders of magnitude larger than the trailing edge diameter. This transition to turbulence would occur unless there is a strong favorable pressure gradient that results in the boundary layer remaining laminar or transitional over the surface of the airfoil. This presentation will focus on two direct numerical simulations that have been performed at NASA ARC. The first is of a cylinder wake with laminar separating boundary layers. The second is the wake of a flat plate with a circular trailing edge. The upper and lower plate surface boundary layers are both turbulent and statistically identical. Thus the computed wake is symmetric in a statistical sense. This flow is more representative of airfoil wakes than cylinder wakes. Results from the two simulations including flow visualization and turbulence statistics in the near wake will be presented at the seminar.

wakes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

Bauer, Frank H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Probability of False Go/No-Go Determined by GOES Proton Flux: Proposed Launch Constraints for Avoiding Damaging Solar Energetic Particle Events

The space environment is full of harmful radiation and high energy particles that can cause damage to materials and affect computer systems by e.g., single event effects (SEEs), total ionizing dose (TID), etc. There are three main sources of high energy particles: Trapped radiation in Earth's Van Allen belts (electrons and protons); Solar energetic particles (SEPs) (protons and heavy ions); Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) (protons and heavy ions). In this study, we focus on the SEPs and their time series and energy spectrum to quantify probabilities of launch go/no-go. The SEPs originate from solar particle events (SPEs) that are associated with a solar flare and/or a coronal mass ejection (CME). These events are difficult to predict. Recent work has been done on these prediction techniques. The Geostarionary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) has been observing SEPs for decades. The greater than 10 megaelectronvolt proton flux is shown in Figure 2 since 1986. The SEPs are influenced by the 11-year solar cycle and typically come from active regions on the Sun.

DeStefano, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Development and Experimental Validation of a Path-Dependent Spin Forming Finite Element Model

Spin forming is an advanced manufacturing process widely used in the aerospace and defense sectors to produce lightweight, high-strength cylindrical components with tight dimensional tolerances. This study explores the applicability of the path-dependent Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) constitutive model by simulating the evolution of geometry, machining forces, and plastic deformation during the spin forming of a 10-mm thick 6061-O aluminum cylinder. While numerical modeling of spin forming has advanced substantially over the past decade, systematic verification and experimental validation of material models remain limited, particularly in predicting through-thickness process evolution. The MTS model, incorporating a Voce hardening rule, is employed for its ability to represent cyclic loading, rapidly varying temperature fields, and strain rates characteristic of spin forming. Numerical convergence analysis indicates discretization uncertainties between 0.3% and 9.2% for key quantities of interest. Experimental validation demonstrates that the MTS model, when implemented with a verified mesh, accurately reproduces both elastic and plastic behavior of 6061-O aluminum, predicting peak roller loads within 11–18% of measurements, geometric tolerances within 3%, and plastic strain distributions within 10% of experimental values. Collectively, these results establish a validated computational framework for predictive spin-forming simulations with quantified confidence, providing a foundation for extension to other alloys, geometries, and forming conditions.

Spin forming↗

NASA NTRS2018

Investigations of Spot-to-plume Mode Transition in a Hollow Cathode Discharge Using 2-D Axisymmetric Plasma Simulations

After decades of laboratory investigations that provided invaluable measurements and insight, the physics behind the transition from spot to plume modes in hollow cathodes remains one of the longest standing theoretical problems in electric propulsion. This has prohibited the development of ab initio models that allow for the prediction of the transition across different cathodes and operating conditions. Since the beginning of its development over a decade ago, simulations with the 2-D axisymmetric Orificed Cathode (OrCa2D) code have helped elucidate a wide range of processes in hollow cathode discharges. However, the code has never been used to investigate the onset of plume mode. We present results from the first OrCa2D simulations of a 25-A LaB6 cathode for a range of flow rates (5-20 sccm) in which transition from spot to plume modes is known to occur. The cathode in this study was one of the two technologies considered for the 12.5 kW Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) and operates nominally at 21 A and 14.8 sccm. The simulations capture the characteristic rise of the peak-to-peak amplitude in the keeper voltage oscillations and underscore the significance of the plume neutral gas in the transition. The plasma inside the cathode is found to be relatively quiescent throughout the transition, in agreement with previous experimental observations. The computed keeper voltage fluctuations at low flow rates (<8 sccm) are found to be driven by oscillations of the same frequency in the plasma plume with the following main characteristics: (1) they are of low frequency (<10 kHz), and associated with small longitudinal motion in the direction of the applied magnetic field, (2) they occur in a region of the plume where the neutral gas provided by the cathode has been fully depleted, and (3) they have a (small) wave velocity of about 100 m/s, which is at least ~10 smaller than the drift, thermal and acoustic speeds of the ions. At 8 sccm, when the transition to the large-amplitude oscillations begins, the ionization frequency in the neutral-depleted plume region ranges ~2-100 kHz. The frequency of the oscillations in the plasma (and keeper voltage) is found to be equal to the ionization frequency (~5 kHz) at the center of this region. The findings suggest that the transition to plume mode is driven by ionization processes in the near-plume of the cathode, in line with previous conjectures that were based solely on laboratory observations.

Polk, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Habitable-Zone Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) Baseline 4-M Telescope Design and Predicted Performance

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory Mission (HabEx) is one of four missions under study for the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. Its goal is to directly image and spectroscopically characterize planetary systems in the habitable zone around nearby sun-like stars. Additionally, HabEx will perform a broad range of general astrophysics science enabled by 100 to 2500 nm spectral range and 3 x 3 arc-minute FOV. Critical to achieving its the HabEx science goals is a large, ultra-stable UV/Optical/Near-IR (UVOIR) telescope. The baseline HabEx telescope is a 4-meter off-axis unobscured three-mirror-anastigmatic, diffraction limited at 400 nm with wavefront stability on the order of a few 10s of picometers. This paper summarizes the opto-mechanical design of the HabEx baseline optical telescope assembly, including a discussion of how science requirements drive the telescope’s specifications, and presents analysis that the baseline telescope structure meets its specified tolerances.

Space Telescope Technology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Habitable-zone Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) Baseline 4-m Telescope Design and Predicted Performance

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory Mission (HabEx) is one of four missions under study for the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. Its goal is to directly image and spectroscopically characterize planets in the habitable zone around nearby sun-like stars. Additionally, HabEx will perform a broad range of general astrophysics science enabled by 115 to 1700 nm spectral range and 3x3 arc-minute FOV instruments. Critical to achieving its science goals is a large, ultra-stable UV/Optical/Near-IR (UVOIR) telescope. The baseline HabEx telescope is a 4-meter off-axis unobscured three-mirror-anastigmatic, diffraction limited at 400 nm with wavefront stability on the order of a few 10s of picometers. This paper summarizes the opto-mechanical design of the HabEx baseline optical telescope assembly, including a discussion of how science requirements drive the telescope’s specifications, and presents analysis that the baseline telescope structure meets its specified tolerances.

HabEx↗