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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1973

Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes.

Development of a conceptual framework for dealing with systems which are too complex or too ill-defined to admit of precise quantitative analysis. The approach outlined is based on the premise that the key elements in human thinking are not numbers, but labels of fuzzy sets - i.e., classes of objects in which the transition from membership to nonmembership is gradual rather than abrupt. The approach in question has three main distinguishing features - namely, the use of so-called 'linguistic' variables in place of or in addition to numerical variables, the characterization of simple relations between variables by conditional fuzzy statements, and the characterization of complex relations by fuzzy algorithms.

Zadeh, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A new approach to performance optimization of the 1975 Mars Viking lander.

The design of the 1975 Viking lander is based, in part, upon performance optimization analyses and a requirement to maximize operational flexibility. The analysis technique is characterized by a graphical tradeoff approach found to be the most effective for evaluating lifting-entry trajectory performance. The analysis eliminates the constraint of a level flight trajectory and allows the lander to reach positive flight-path angles before parachute deployment. Updated Mars environmental knowledge and recent test results and design decisions are analysis factors. The entry-phase analysis indicates that a hypersonic lift-to-drag ratio of 0.18 and an entry flight-path-angle corridor of -15 to -19 deg satisfy the requirements of optimum performance (maximum payload and sufficient terrain height capability).

Zeiner, H. N.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Direct Measurement of the Spectral Structure of Cosmic-Ray Electrons+Positrons in the Tev Region With Calet on the International Space Station

Detailed measurements of the spectral structure of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons from 10.6 GeV to 7.5 TeV are presented from over 7 years of observations with the CALorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) on the International Space Station. The instrument, consisting of a charge detector, an imaging calorimeter, and a total absorption calorimeter with a total depth of 30 radiation lengths at normal incidence and a fine shower imaging capability, is optimized to measure the all-electron spectrum well into the TeV region. Because of the excellent energy resolution (a few percent above 10 GeV) and the outstanding e/p separation (10 5 ), CALET provides optimal performance for a detailed search of structures in the energy spectrum. The analysis uses data up to the end of 2022, and the statistics of observed electron candidates has increased more than 3 times since the last publication in 2018. By adopting an updated boosted decision tree analysis, a sufficient proton rejection power up to 7.5 TeV is achieved, with a residual proton contamination less than 10%. The observed energy spectrum becomes gradually harder in the lower energy region from around 30 GeV, consistently with AMS-02, but from 300 to 600 GeV it is considerably softer than the spectra measured by DAMPE and Fermi-LAT. At high energies, the spectrum presents a sharp break around 1 TeV, with a spectral index change from −3.15 to −3.91, and a broken power law fitting the data in the energy range from 30 GeV to 4.8 TeV better than a single power law with 6.9 sigma significance, which is compatible with the DAMPE results. The break is consistent with the expected effects of radiation loss during the propagation from distant sources (except the highest energy bin). We have fitted the spectrum with a model consistent with the positron flux measured by AMS-02 below 1 TeV and interpreted the electron+positron spectrum with possible contributions from pulsars and nearby sources. Above 4.8 TeV, a possible contribution from known nearby supernova remnants, including Vela, is addressed by an event-by-event analysis providing a higher proton-rejection power than a purely statistical analysis.

O. Adriani↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planning for the storm: Considering renewable energy for critical infrastructure resilience

This study uses the renewable energy optimization model to assess three critical facilities in North Carolina. Techno-economic results were then compared to analyses completed for critical facilities in California and New York to assess energy system cost effectiveness. Though solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays are cost-effective across each of the three North Carolina facilities, adopting battery storage to enable PV to operate with existing diesel generators in a hybrid energy system reduces the economic value of the system. This is in contrast to more economically viable systems in California and New York. All of these systems also offer unquantified resilience benefits by extending operation from hours to weeks across the facilities. If decision makers were able to value the resilience benefits offered by each system or utility rate structures were changed to incentivize battery storage during normal operations, it would impact these assessments. Even so, this analysis provides decision makers a key set of cost benchmarks when considering how they might improve resilience at their critical operations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Cooperative Automation Supporting Pilot-Dispatch Negotiation of Enroute Trajectory Change Requests

The advent of advanced technologies in communication, navigation, and surveillance is enabling more integration between the aircraft and the ground systems in managing air traffic operations. As a result, automation has evolved to provide the flight crew, air traffic controllers, and traffic flow managers with capabilities for collaborating on information access, analysis, and decision making. In this paper, we investigate different cooperative schemes between these agents, supported by automation, in managing dynamic trajectory changes while the flight is en route to improve flight and system performance. The analysis was conducted using an abstract cognitive tasking framework to identify trajectory change tasks independently from the agent performing them. Cooperation schemes were then derived by assessing different levels of cooperation on each task between the air and ground agents and their automation. The assessment was based on which automation-supported agent is more capable of performing the task and the expected benefit mechanisms that result from cooperating. The cooperation schemes were compared based on a qualitative, but objective, assessment of the benefits expected from cooperation.

air-ground integration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Governing in Time: Temporal Capacity and the Feasibility of Energy Transitions

Energy systems function as both technological systems and temporal institutions that shape how societies coordinate, justify, and support collective choices over time. This paper introduces the concept of governance horizons to explain why energy transitions can remain morally supported yet become institutionally weak under increasing pressure. We argue that governability depends on institutions' capacity to synchronize across multiple timeframes - aligning short-term decisions with intermediate coordination and long-term commitments. When this synchronization fails, transitions struggle not because their goals are dismissed, but because governance lacks sufficient time to justify, coordinate, and uphold decisions. Comparative analysis of San Antonio, Texas, and Interior Alaska reveals how energy system pressures generate distinct temporal configurations: San Antonio exhibits governance horizon stretching, where institutions must simultaneously meet near-term reliability demands and long-term transformation goals, while Interior Alaska exhibits horizon compression, where extreme environmental constraints force decision-making into short stabilization cycles. In both contexts, public support for sustainability goals coexists with institutional strain because evaluative judgments are unevenly distributed over time. A temporal configuration analysis is introduced as a diagnostic analytic stance for identifying these patterns. By treating temporal alignment as an explanatory variable rather than a background condition, this approach clarifies how feasibility, sequencing, and legitimacy are shaped by constraints on institutional time. The analysis demonstrates that successful energy transitions depend not only on technological innovation or institutional support, but on governance systems’ ability to sustain credible coordination across multiple time horizons.

Comparative case study↗

NASA NTRS2007

Determining a Method of Enabling and Disabling the Integral Torque in the SDO Science and Inertial Mode Controllers

During design of the SDO Science and Inertial mode PID controllers, the decision was made to disable the integral torque whenever system stability was in question. Three different schemes were developed to determine when to disable or enable the integral torque, and a trade study was performed to determine which scheme to implement. The trade study compared complexity of the control logic, risk of not reenabling the integral gain in time to reject steady-state error, and the amount of integral torque space used. The first scheme calculated a simplified Routh criterion to determine when to disable the integral torque. The second scheme calculates the PD part of the torque and looked to see if that torque would cause actuator saturation. If so, only the PD torque is used. If not, the integral torque is added. Finally, the third scheme compares the attitude and rate errors to limits and disables the integral torque if either of the errors is greater than the limit. Based on the trade study results, the third scheme was selected. Once it was decided when to disable the integral torque, analysis was performed to determine how to disable the integral torque and whether or not to reset the integrator once the integral torque was reenabled. Three ways to disable the integral torque were investigated: zero the input into the integrator, which causes the integral part of the PID control torque to be held constant; zero the integral torque directly but allow the integrator to continue integrating; or zero the integral torque directly and reset the integrator on integral torque reactivation. The analysis looked at complexity of the control logic, slew time plus settling time between each calibration maneuver step, and ability to reject steady-state error. Based on the results of the analysis, the decision was made to zero the input into the integrator without resetting it. Throughout the analysis, a high fidelity simulation was used to test the various implementation methods.

Vess, Melissa F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic R&D Portfolio Management Applied to Energy Storage

Here this paper proposes a methodology to analyze the potential of several alternative technologies in advancing a research and development portfolio. The methodology considers technology maturation, use case requirements, performance goals, cost projections, and existing research and development (R&D) efforts to predict the impact of various R&D investment tracks across several energy storage technologies. Technology maturation and cost projections are derived from a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation, yielding results that incorporate uncertainty in modeling the impact of future R&D. This framework allows the researcher to perform a robust sensitivity analysis to uncover critical pathways and areas where investment will have a high impact.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Association of Serum Bile Acid and Unsaturated Fatty Acid Profiles with the Risk of Diabetic Retinopathy in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Aim: We aimed to identify the ability of serum bile acids (BAs) and unsaturated fatty acids (UFAs) profiles to predict the development of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. Methods: We first used univariate and multivariate analysis to compare 15 serum BA and 11 UFA levels in healthy control (HC) group (n = 82), T2DM patients with DR (n = 58) and T2DM patients without DR (n = 60). Forty T2DM patients were considered for validation. Then, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and decision curve analysis were used to assess the diagnostic value and clinical benefit of serum biomarkers alone, clinical variables alone or in combination, and the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to further assess whether the addition of biomarkers significantly improved the predictive ability of the model. Results: Orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) of serum BAs and UFAs separated the three cohorts including HC, T2DM patients with or without DR. The difference in serum BA and UFA profiles of T2DM patients with or without DR was mainly manifested in the three metabolites of taurolithocholic acid (TLCA), tauroursodeoxycholic acid (TUDCA) and arachidonic acid (AA). Together, they had an AUC of 0.785 (0.918 for validation cohort) for predicting DR in T2DM patients. After adjusting for numerous confounding factors, TLCA, TUDCA, and AA were independent predictors that differentiated T2DM with or without DR. The results of AUC, IDI, and NRI demonstrated that adding these three biomarkers to a model with clinical variables statistically increased their predictive value and were replicated in our independent validation cohort. Conclusion: These findings highlight the association of three metabolites, TLCA, TUDCA and AA, with DR and may indicate their potential value in the pathogenesis of DR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning-based analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on US research networks

Here in this study we explore how fallout from the changing public health policy around COVID-19 has changed how researchers access and process their science experiments. Using a combination of techniques from statistical analysis and machine learning, we conduct a retrospective analysis of historical network data for a period around the stay-at-home orders that took place in March 2020. Our analysis takes data from the entire ESnet infrastructure to explore DOE high-performance computing (HPC) resources at OLCF, ALCF, and NERSC, as well as User sites such as PNNL and JLAB. We look at detecting and quantifying changes in site activity using a combination of t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) and decision tree analysis. Our findings bring insights into the working patterns and impact on data volume movements, particularly during late-night hours and weekends.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantification of Design Trade-Offs When Comparing Transonic Truss-Braced Wing to Advanced Tube and Wing Aircraft

Interest in novel aircraft configurations has continued to grow in response to increasing demand for improved fuel efficiency. One such configuration of interest is the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW). Because the improvement of the TTBW comes from increased efficiency during cruise, it offers increasing returns as the mission distance increases. As a result, there is often a crossover point which represents the minimum mission range where the TTBW will offer a fuel burn reduction relative to a similar Tube and Wing aircraft with similar component technology levels. Aircraft rarely fly missions at their maximum range, so it is important to investigate not only the maximum benefit, but also the most likely benefit. Design decisions and analysis assumptions that significantly impact this crossover point include whether to put fuel in body tanks, how weight build-up estimation is calibrated, engine technology selection, and flight Mach number. This study, conducted under NASA’s Sustainable Flight Demonstration project and inspired by differing assumptions made by different research teams, details the impacts of changing these design decisions and assumptions.

Carl J Recine↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantification of Design Trade-Offs When Comparing Transonic Truss-Braced Wing to Advanced Tube and Wing Aircraft

Carl J Recine↗

NASA NTRS2005

Using Perilog to Explore "Decision Making at NASA"

Perilog, a context intensive text mining system, is used as a discovery tool to explore topics and concerns in "Decision Making at NASA," chapter 6 of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) Report, Volume I. Two examples illustrate how Perilog can be used to discover highly significant safety-related information in the text without prior knowledge of the contents of the document. A third example illustrates how "if-then" statements found by Perilog can be used in logical analysis of decision making. In addition, in order to serve as a guide for future work, the technical details of preparing a PDF document for input to Perilog are included in an appendix.

McGreevy, Michael W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling error structures of precipitation datasets using decision trees

Characterizing error structures in precipitation products not only facilitates their proper applications for scientific and practical purposes but also helps improve their retrieval algorithms and processing methods. Despite the fact that multiple precipitation products have been assessed in the literature, factors that affect their error structures remain inadequately addressed. By interpreting 60 binary decision trees, this study disentangles the error characteristics of precipitation products in terms of their spatiotemporal patterns and geographical factors. Three independent precipitation products - two satellite-based and one reanalysis datasets: the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) late run (IMERG-L), Soil Moisture to Rain-Advanced SCATterometer (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 uncorrected precipitation output (MERRA2-UC), are evaluated across the contiguous United States from 2010 to 2019. Here, the ground-based Stage IV precipitation dataset is used as the ground truth. Results indicate that the MERRA2-UC outperforms the IMERG-L and SM2RAIN-ASCAT with higher accuracy and more stable interannual patterns for the analysis period. Decision trees cross-assess three spatiotemporal factors and find that the underestimation of MERRA2-UC occurs in the east of the Rocky Mountains, and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimates precipitation over high latitudes, especially in winter. Additionally, the decision tree method ascribes system errors to nine different geographical characteristics, of which the distance to the coast, soil type, and DEM are the three dominant features. On the other hand, the land cover type, topography position index, and aspect are three relatively weak factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using NASA Environmental Data to Enhance Public Health Decision Making

The Universities Space Research Association at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is collaborating with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to address issues of environmental health and enhance public health decision making by utilizing NASA remotely sensed data and products. The objectives of this collaboration are to develop high-quality spatial data sets of environmental variables, and deliver the data sets and associated analyses to local, state and federal end-user groups. These data can be linked spatially and temporally to public health data, such as mortality and disease morbidity, for further analysis and decision making. Three daily environmental data sets have been developed for the conterminous U.S. on different spatial resolutions for the time period 2003-2008: (1) spatial surfaces of estimated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures on a 10-km grid utilizing the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground observations and NASA s MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data; (2) a 1-km grid of Land Surface Temperature (LST) using MODIS data; and (3) a 12-km grid of daily Solar Insolation (SI) and maximum and minimum air temperature using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) forcing data. These environmental data sets will be linked with public health data from the UAB REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) national cohort study to determine whether exposures to these environmental risk factors are related to cognitive decline and other health outcomes. These environmental datasets and public health linkage analyses will be made available to public health professionals, researchers and the general public through the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system and through peer reviewed publications. To date, two of the data sets have been released to the public in CDC WONDER, Daily Air Temperature and Heat Index for years 1979-2010, and Daily Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) air quality measures for years 2003-2008. These data in CDC WONDER can be aggregated to the county-level, state-level, or regional-level as per users need and downloaded in tabular, graphical, and map formats. The summary statistical output are available to web and app developers via the WONDER Application Programming Interface (API). The linkage of these data with the CDC WONDER system provides a significant addition to CDC WONDER, allowing public health researchers and policy makers to better include environmental exposure data in the context of other health data available in CDC WONDER online system. It also substantially expands public access to NASA environmental data, making their use by a wide range of decision makers feasible.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

DOE OSTI2022

System Analysis Modeling and Intermodal Transportation for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy is applying knowledge and understanding in the areas of systems level engineering, analysis, and decision making to better inform the waste management pathways for U.S. spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Currently there are 93 operating and 23 shutdown commercial nuclear reactors in the United States. SNF at most of these locations is being stored in spent fuel pools, dry storage, or both [1, 2]. This paper initially goes over the basics of the agent-based simulation tool known as the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) that has the capability to model interaction and movements of individual components or groups like casks, railcars etc. The next section covers some of the methods implemented in the Java Transportation Operations Model (JTOM) to facilitate the movement of assemblies, casks, railcars etc. and the various intermodal transfer options. This section also covers the current cask loading and intermodal transfer times implemented in NGSAM. The last section goes over the proposed values for intermodal transportation, and cask transfer/loading operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Decision Support Framework for Feasibility Analysis of International Space Station (ISS) Research Capability Enhancing Options

The assembly and operation of the ISS has generated significant challenges that have ultimately impacted resources available to the program's primary mission: research. To address this, program personnel routinely perform trade-off studies on alternative options to enhance research. The approach, content level of analysis and resulting outputs of these studies vary due to many factors, however, complicating the Program Manager's job of selecting the best option. To address this, the program requested a framework be developed to evaluate multiple research-enhancing options in a thorough, disciplined and repeatable manner, and to identify the best option on the basis of cost, benefit and risk. The resulting framework consisted of a systematic methodology and a decision-support toolset. The framework provides quantifiable and repeatable means for ranking research-enhancing options for the complex and multiple-constraint domain of the space research laboratory. This paper describes the development, verification and validation of this framework and provides observations on its operational use.

Ortiz, James N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reducing the Risk and Improving Mission Success for NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid: How Many Robotic Surveyors?

NASA's recent attention and interest in sending a human mission to land on a Near-Earth asteroid raises the question of need for a robotic surveyor. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending (versus not sending) one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The probability of finding an asteroid suitable for landing was derived from an analysis of more than 1200 asteroids in order to define a quantitative estimate of suitability. The low cost of the surveyors relative to the human mission underlined the multi-surveyor strategy as relatively inexpensive insurance against the risks of encountering an unsuitable asteroid for landing on arrival by a human mission.

decision analysis↗