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DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Detailed Pyrolytic Gas-Phase Kinetic Model for the Volatiles of Polyethylene Thermal Degradation

This work presents a semi-detailed kinetic model to address the pyrolytic gas-phase reactivity of volatiles formed during thermal degradation of polyethylene (PE). The model builds on a validated multi-step condensed-phase model and employs validated lumping approaches. Short-chain compounds are modelled with high detail, while long-chain ones are described by surrogate species representative of diesel-cuts (NC16H32) and waxes (NC30H60). The reactivity of short chains is described through the comprehensive CRECK kinetic model, updated to align C5-C7 olefins based on recent literature experimental data. Due to the lack of experimental data for longer olefins, their reactivity is modeled by analogy to the shorter ones, ensuring an asymptotic behavior with increasing carbon numbers. The semi-detailed model is validated through experimental data on PE pyrolysis, assuming an instantaneous mixing of the inert inlet flow with released volatiles, followed by a segregated plug-flow behavior. Validation across different reactor setups confirms the model’s capability to predict detailed product distributions. Despite minor discrepancies, the proposed model effectively captures experimental trends. Further work will address modelling the reactivity in oxygen-containing environments.

kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Detailed Pyrolytic Gas-Phase Kinetic Model for the Volatiles of Polyethylene Thermal Degradation

kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Membrane Degradation in PEM Fuel Cells: Part I. Modeling Gas Crossover and the Pt Band

Understanding chemical degradation of the proton-exchange membrane in fuel cells is crucial for extending their lifetimes. Herein, various degradation reactions reported in literature are organized and analyzed, including direct radical generation and an indirect (Fenton) pathway. To understand the transport of dissolved H 2 and O 2 crossover gases as they relate to membrane degradation, an agglomerate-scale model is introduced, treating gas, ionomer, and catalyst as discrete phases. The model reveals a key phenomenon: at working potentials, dissolved gases are mostly consumed at the interface between the catalyst layer and the membrane, leaving little gas to cross the membrane. Under open-circuit conditions, dissolved gases are not consumed and can then cross the membrane. This explains high H 2 O 2 concentrations and degradation rates seen in experiments but not captured in previous models. Following mixed-potential theory, crossover gases supply the hydrogen-oxidation and oxygen-reduction reactions, which occur simultaneously on individual Pt particles comprising the Pt band in the membrane, forming reactive species (H 2 O 2 , OH·). Results show crossover gas almost entirely reacts on the Pt band, allowing little to reach the opposite electrode. Furthermore, the micro-scale geometry of the catalyst-layer/membrane interface impacts the gas crossover at working potentials, indicating that cell construction affects membrane durability.

Johnson, Evan F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phenothiazines Rapidly Induce Laccase Expression and Lignin-Degrading Properties in the White-Rot Fungus Phlebia radiata

Phlebia radiata is a widespread white-rot basidiomycete fungus with significance in diverse biotechnological applications due to its ability to degrade aromatic compounds, xenobiotics, and lignin using an assortment of oxidative enzymes including laccase. In this work, a chemical screen with 480 conditions was conducted to identify chemical inducers of laccase expression in P. radiata. Among the chemicals tested, phenothiazines were observed to induce laccase activity in P. radiata, with promethazine being the strongest laccase inducer of the phenothiazine-derived compounds examined. Secretomes produced by promethazine-treated P. radiata exhibited increased laccase protein abundance, increased enzymatic activity, and an enhanced ability to degrade phenolic model lignin compounds. Transcriptomics analyses revealed that promethazine rapidly induced the expression of genes encoding lignin-degrading enzymes, including laccase and various oxidoreductases, showing that the increased laccase activity was due to increased laccase gene expression. Finally, the generality of promethazine as an inducer of laccases in fungi was demonstrated by showing that promethazine treatment also increased laccase activity in other relevant fungal species with known lignin conversion capabilities including Trametes versicolor and Pleurotus ostreatus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗

DOE OSTI2020

Maximising the investment returns of a grid‐connected battery considering degradation cost

Energy storage systems (ESSs) are being deployed widely due to numerous benefits including operational flexibility, high ramping capability, and decreasing costs. This study investigates the economic benefits provided by battery ESSs when they are deployed for market‐related applications, considering the battery degradation cost. A comprehensive investment planning framework is presented, which estimates the maximum revenue that the ESS can generate over its lifetime and provides the necessary tools to investors for aiding the decision making process regarding an ESS project. The applications chosen for this study are energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. Lithium‐ion batteries are considered due to their wide popularity arising from high efficiency, high energy density, and declining costs. A new degradation cost model based on energy throughput and cycle count is developed for Lithium‐ion batteries participating in electricity markets. The lifetime revenue of ESS is calculated considering battery degradation and a cost–benefit analysis is performed to provide investors with an estimate of the net present value, return on investment and payback period. The effect of considering the degradation cost on the estimated revenue is also studied. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and historical data from PJM Interconnection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of moisture transfer in cement-based materials: Use of a porous network model to access transfer parameters

Knowing the water transport phenomena is fundamental for understanding the durability of cement-based materials. The moisture content within cementitious materials is of primary importance because it has a direct influence on mechanical (shrinkage, creep) and chemical (penetration of aggressive agents) degradation. Many models based on the determination of the transfer properties of the material under study already exist but require fitting of the parameters to find the experimental kinetics. Transfer parameters are generally estimated from the empirical approaches developed for soils by Van Genuchten and the water vapour diffusion reduction factor is often calculated via Millington's semi-empirical model. In this paper, we make a proposal to improve the prediction of moisture transfer, through mechanisms such as drying, capillary imbibition and water vapour permeability in cement-based materials, by using a porous network model to access the transfer parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanics-Driven Anode Material Failure in Battery Safety and Capacity Deterioration Issues: A Review

Abstract High-capacity anodes, such as Si, have attracted tremendous research interest over the last two decades because of the requirement for the high energy density of next-generation lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The mechanical integrity and stability of such materials during cycling are critical because their volume considerably changes. The volume changes/deformation result in mechanical stresses, which lead to mechanical failures, including cracks, fragmentation, and debonding. These phenomena accelerate capacity fading during electrochemical cycling and thus limit the application of high-capacity anodes. Experimental studies have been performed to characterize the deformation and failure behavior of these high-capacity materials directly, providing fundamental insights into the degradation processes. Modeling works have focused on elucidating the underlying mechanisms and providing design tools for next-generation battery design. This review presents an overview of the fundamental understanding and theoretical analysis of the electrochemical degradation and safety issues of LIBs where mechanics dominates. We first introduce the stress generation and failure behavior of high-capacity anodes from the experimental and computational aspects, respectively. Then, we summarize and discuss the strategies of stress mitigation and failure suppression. Finally, we conclude the significant points and outlook critical bottlenecks in further developing and spreading high-capacity materials of LIBs.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Client Sampling in Federated Learning with Client-level Heterogeneous Differential Privacy

Federated Learning with client-level differential privacy (DP) provides a promising framework for collaboratively training models while rigorously protecting clients’ privacy. However, classic approaches like DP-FedAvg struggle when clients have heterogeneous privacy requirements, as they must uniformly enforce the strictest privacy level across all clients, leading to excessive DP noise and significant degradation in model utility. Existing methods to improve the model utility in such heterogeneous privacy settings often assume a trusted server and are largely heuristic, resulting in suboptimal performance and lacking strong theoretical foundations. Here, in this work, we address these challenges under a practical attack model where both clients and the server are honest-but-curious. We propose GDPFed, which partitions clients into groups based on their privacy budgets and achieves client-level DP within each group to reduce the privacy budget waste and hence improve the model utility. Based on the privacy and convergence analysis of GDPFed, we find that the magnitude of DP noise depends on both model dimensionality and the per-group client sampling ratios. To further improve the performance of GDPFed, we introduce GDPFed+, which integrates model sparsification to eliminate unnecessary noise and optimizes per-group client sampling ratios to minimize convergence error. Extensive empirical evaluations on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of GDPFed+, showing substantial performance gains compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Xu, Jiahao [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML), specifically neural networks, has grown significantly and has spurred research in its applicability to digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). While ML models have shown promise in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of using such algorithms has not been adequately assessed. Failures of ML integrated systems are not well understood, and the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness in these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) [1] and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) [2], they indicate that trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier and will play a vital role in the safe, accountable, and secure operation of intelligent systems. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a dynamic model-agnostic method to quantify the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that most ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but experience significant performance degradation at extrapolation. The method, referenced as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets which can used to the relative reliability of AI/ML predictions. LADDR is then demonstrated on a feedforward neural network based digital twin used for the prediction of safety significant factors during a loss-of-flow transient. LADDR is used to demonstrate how training data can be used as evidence to support the relative reliability of ML/AI predictions enhancing the overall trustworthiness of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Stochastic Mixing in Idealized Convection-Permitting Simulations of Squall Lines

This study investigates impacts of altering subgrid-scale mixing in “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale horizontal-grid-spacing (Δ h ) simulations by applying either constant or stochastic multiplicative factors to the horizontal mixing coefficients within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In quasi-idealized 1-km Δ h simulations of two observationally based squall-line cases, constant enhanced mixing produces larger updraft cores that are more dilute at upper levels, weakens the cold pool, rear-inflow jet, and front-to-rear flow of the squall line, and degrades the model’s effective resolution. Reducing mixing by a constant multiplicative factor has the opposite effect on all metrics. Completely turning off parameterized horizontal mixing produces bulk updraft statistics and squall-line mesoscale structure closest to an LES “benchmark” among all 1-km simulations, although the updraft cores are too undilute. The stochastic mixing scheme, which applies a multiplicative factor to the mixing coefficients that varies stochastically in time and space, is employed at 0.5-, 1-, and 2-km Δ h . It generally reduces midlevel vertical velocities and enhances upper-level vertical velocities compared to simulations using the standard mixing scheme, with more substantial impacts at 1- and 2-km Δ h compared to 0.5-km Δ h . Further, the stochastic scheme also increases updraft dilution to better agree with the LES for one case, but has less impact on the other case. Stochastic mixing acts to weaken the cold pool but without a significant impact on squall-line propagation. It also does not affect the model’s overall effective resolution unlike applying constant multiplicative factors to the mixing coefficients.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Operation of Solid-Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems Considering Synergistic Chemical and Physical Degradation

This poster summarizes work on synergistic degradation of Solid-Oxide Cells under physical and chemical degradation. We present operational insights that extend the useful life of SOCs while maintaining high efficiencies and economic viability. We also provide insights on how often the SOC must be replaced to ensure the reliability of the process. All these decisions are made through a dynamic optimization framework that utilizes new models for degradation that were developed as a part of the IDAES project.

Giridhar, Nishant↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Quantum-Based Approach to Predict Primary Radiation Damage in Polymeric Networks

Initial atomistic-level radiation damage in chemically reactive materials is thought to induce reaction cascades that can result in undesirable degradation of macroscale properties. Ensembles of quantum-based molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations can accurately predict these cascades, but extracting chemical insights from the many underlying trajectories is a labor-intensive process that can require substantial a priori intuition. We develop here a general and automated graph-based approach to extract all chemically distinct structures sampled in QMD simulations and apply our approach to predict primary radiation damage of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), the main constituent of silicones. A postprocessing protocol is developed to identify underlying polymer backbone structures as connected components in QMD trajectories. Furthermore, these backbones form a repository of radiation-damaged structures. A scheme for extracting and updating a library of isomorphically distinct structures is proposed to identify the spanning set and aid chemical interpretation of the repository. The analyses are applied to ensembles of cascade QMD simulations in which the four element types in PDMS are selectively excited in primary knock-on atom events. Our approach reveals a much higher degree of combinatorial complexity in this system than was inferred through radiolysis experiments. Probabilities are extracted for radiation-induced network changes including formation of branch points, carbon linkages, cycles, bond scissions, and carbon uptake into the Si–O siloxane backbone network. The general analysis framework presented here is readily extendable to modeling chemical degradation of other polymers and molecular materials and provides a basis for future quantum-informed multiscale modeling of radiation damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Center for Performance and Design of Nuclear Waste Forms and Containers (WastePD) Energy Frontier Research Center (Final Report)

The DOE Office of Environmental Management is responsible for high level nuclear waste that must be safely isolated from humans and the environment for extremely long periods. The waste forms and containers are made of glass, ceramics, and metals. Verified safe disposal requires understanding the fundamental mechanisms of waste form degradation and the design of new waste forms with improved performance, which comprise the goals of the Energy Frontier Research Center known as the Center for the Performance and Design of Nuclear Waste Forms and Containers, WastePD. WastePD was constructed to develop innovative approaches and solutions to those goals through the synergistic interactions of individuals who are experts in the degradation behavior, modeling, and design of glasses, ceramics and metal alloys. WastePD is the first center ever created to address this diverse group of materials in a comprehensive and coordinated manner. The science goals are grouped into three common topics: corrosion mechanisms via advanced characterization, environmental impacts, and materials design. Synergistic interactions in these areas were a key component of WastePD. The fundamental understanding of the degradation mechanisms of the waste forms and containers as well as the development of new materials with improved properties will allow DOE to prevent environmental contamination and to explore totally new repository concepts. WastePD was operational from August 2016 through July 2022, but the DOE support was drastically reduced for the last two years. This final technical report covers the full period of performance. However, much of what was accomplished in the first four years is nicely summarized in a review paper published in 2021, which is appended to this report. Therefore, this final report focuses on the technical findings from the last two years of WastePD activities. Considerable progress was made in the areas of a) the environmental and compositional impacts on the corrosion of borosilicate and aluminosilicate glasses, b) the mechanism of glass corrosion and the structure and evolution of the surface alteration layer, c) the effects of environment and composition on the corrosion of pyrochlore, perovskite, hollandite, and other oxide ceramics, d) the corrosion mechanism of multi-principal element metallic alloys, and e) a new framework for understanding the pitting corrosion of metals.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

ENSO-Induced Teleconnection: Process-Oriented Diagnostics to Assess Rossby Wave Sources and Ambient Flow Properties in Climate Models

Climate model fidelity in representing ENSO-induced teleconnection is assessed with process-oriented diagnostics that examine a chain of processes, from equatorial Pacific precipitation to the midlatitude circulation pattern over the Pacific–North American regions. Such processes are rarely addressed during model development. Using an upper-tropospheric divergent level, local vorticity gradient of the ambient zonal flow (∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 ) and a restoring force for Rossby waves (β * ) are estimated, the equivalent barotropic vorticity equation is solved, and an anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS') quantified. The analysis is applied to AMIP5 and AMIP6 simulations. For a realistic circulation response representation, the hypothesis that models accurately represent the strength and location of RWS', and spatial variations in β * is tested. Compared to AMIP5, in AMIP6 there are clear improvements in representing RWS' and β * . To validate the hypothesis, the analysis identifies two metrics: spatially coherent RWS' in the subtropical North Pacific, and longitudes of negative β * over the western-central North Pacific. By projecting these metrics in two and three-dimensional views, improvements or degradations in model versions are apparent. If a model’s fidelity in representing ∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 and RWS' are compromised, then radiated Rossby waves are reflected more equatorward, resulting in zonally elongated circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific. Thus, during climate model development, applying this analysis frequently will keep a regular check on the fidelity of the modeled response to anomalous El Niño convection in conjunction with changing model ambient flow dependencies. As a result, this analysis is intended to form a process-oriented diagnostics package, a community contribution to the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗