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DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

The increasing electrification of aircraft propulsion systems is leading to new control architectures being developed to address integration between electric machines and gas-based turbine engines. For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, current conceptual architectures often couple electric machines with the shafts of gas turbine engines and introduce energy storage. Leveraging the electrical power system of hybridized engines, Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) is a recent control approach that improves transient operability in an effort to enable more efficient and lighter weight turbomachinery. This study seeks to expand TEEM’s application beyond traditional proportional-integral (PI) control by presenting linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes to execute the TEEM concept. Through constraint selection and cost function design, transient operability goals for TEEM are considered with no external logic or saturation. Unique to the designs are the use of a washout filter, which simplifies transient detection and motor activation logic. The proposed architectures are implemented with both centralized MPC and distributed MPC approaches, and comparisons are drawn to a benchmark PI controller simulated on a nonlinear turbofan engine model at one ground condition and one cruise condition. Performance is evaluated using compressor maps, stall margin performance, and two novel metrics: transient stack usage and transient excursion integral. Results reveal the linear MPC scheme performs comparably to the baseline controller and can be implemented in at least two distinct configurations with potential for further modifications, thus establishing the groundwork for future investigations.

Model Predictive Control↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

The increasing electrification of aircraft propulsion systems is leading to new control architectures being developed to address integration between electric machines and gas-based turbine engines. For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, current conceptual architectures often couple electric machines with the shafts of gas turbine engines and introduce energy storage. Leveraging the electrical power system of hybridized engines, Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) is a recent control approach that improves transient operability in an effort to enable more efficient and lighter weight turbomachinery. This study seeks to expand TEEM’s application beyond traditional proportional integral (PI) control by presenting linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes to execute the TEEM concept. Through constraint selection and cost function design, transient operability goals for TEEM are considered with no external logic or saturation. Unique to the designs are the use of a washout filter, which simplifies transient detection and motor activation logic. The proposed architectures are implemented with both centralized MPC and distributed MPC approaches, and comparisons are drawn to a benchmark PI controller simulated on a nonlinear turbofan engine model at one ground condition and one cruise condition. Performance is evaluated using compressor maps, stall margin performance, and two novel metrics: transient stack usage and transient excursion integral. Results reveal the linear MPC scheme performs comparably to the baseline controller and can be implemented in at least two distinct configurations with potential for further modifications, thus establishing the groundwork for future investigations.

Model Predictive Control↗

NASA NTRS2023

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

Model Predictive Control↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

NASA NTRS2012

Prediction of BVI Noise for an Active Twist Rotor Using a Loosely Coupled CFD/CSD Method and Comparison to Experimental Data

Numerical predictions of the acoustic characteristics of an Active Twist Rotor (ATR), using two methods to compute the rotor blade aerodynamics and elastic blade motion are compared to experimental data from a wind tunnel test in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) in 2000. The first method, a loosely coupled iterative method, utilizes the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code OVERFLOW 2 and the Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD) code CAMRAD II. The second method utilizes the CAMRAD II free-wake model only. The harmonic active-twist control to the main rotor blade system is identified with three parameters - harmonic actuation frequency, actuation amplitude, and control phase angle. The resulting aerodynamics and blade motion data from the two methods are then used in the acoustics code PSU-WOPWOP to predict acoustic pressure on a spherical array of equally spaced observers surrounding the rotor. This spherical distribution of pressure is used to compute the sound power level representing baseline and actuated conditions. Sound power levels for three categories of noise are defined as - blade-vortex interaction sound power level (BVIPWL), low frequency sound power level (LFPWL), and overall sound power level, OAPWL. Comparisons with measured data indicate the CFD/CSD analysis successfully captures the trends in sound power levels and the effects of active-twist control at advance ratios of 0.14 and 0.17. The free-wake model predictions show inconsistent sound power levels relative to the trends in the experimental and CFD data. This paper presents the first ever comparison between CFD/CSD acoustic predictions for an active-twist rotor and experimental measurements.

Fogarty, David E.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Linking structural and transport properties in three-dimensional fracture networks

Here, we investigate large scale particle motion and solute breakthrough in sparse three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFN) characterized by power-law distributed fracture lengths. The three networks we consider have the same fracture intensity values but exhibit different percolation densities, geometric properties and topological structures. We considered two different average transport models to predict solute breakthrough, a streamtube model and a Bernoulli CTRW model, both of which provide insights into the flow fields within the networks. The streamtube model provides acceptable predictions at short distances in two of the networks, but fails in all cases to predict breakthrough times at the outlet plane, which indicates that particle motion in such fracture networks cannot be characterized by a constant velocity between the inlet and control plane at which the breakthrough curve is detected. Rather the structure of the network requires that frequent velocity transitions be made as particles move through the system. Despite the relatively broad distribution of fracture radii and relatively small number of independent velocity transitions, the CTRW approach conditioned on the initial velocity distribution provides reasonable predictions for the breakthrough curves at different distances from the inlet. The application of these averaged transport models provides a richer understanding of the link from the fracture network structure to ow and transport properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Fluid Physics in a Fluctuating Acceleration Environment

Our program of research aims at developing a stochastic description of the residual acceleration field onboard spacecraft (g-jitter) to describe in quantitative detail its effect on fluid motion. Our main premise is that such a statistical description is necessary in those cases in which the characteristic time scales of the process under investigation are long compared with the correlation time of g-jitter. Although a clear separation between time scales makes this approach feasible, there remain several difficulties of practical nature: (i), g-jitter time series are not statistically stationary but rather show definite dependences on factors such as active or rest crew periods; (ii), it is very difficult to extract reliably the low frequency range of the power spectrum of the acceleration field. This range controls the magnitude of diffusive processes; and (iii), models used to date are Gaussian, but there is evidence that large amplitude disturbances occur much more frequently than a Gaussian distribution would predict. The lack of stationarity does not constitute a severe limitation in practice, since the intensity of the stochastic components changes very slowly during space missions (perhaps over times of the order of hours). A separate analysis of large amplitude disturbances has not been undertaken yet, but it does not seem difficult a priori to devise models that may describe this range better than a Gaussian distribution. The effect of low frequency components, on the other hand, is more difficult to ascertain, partly due to the difficulty associated with measuring them, and partly because they may be indistinguishable from slowly changing averages. This latter effect is further complicated by the lack of statistical stationarity of the time series. Recent work has focused on the effect of stochastic modulation on the onset of oscillatory instabilities as an example of resonant interaction between the driving acceleration and normal modes of the system, and on cavity flow as an example of how an oscillatory response under periodic driving becomes diffusive if the forcing is random instead. This paper describes three different topics that illustrate behavior that is peculiar to a stochastic acceleration field. In the first case, we show that g-jitter can induce effective attractive or repulsive forces between a pair of spherical particles that are suspended in an incompressible fluid of different density provided that the momentum diffusion length is larger than the interparticle separation (as in the case in most colloidal suspensions). Second, a stochastic modulation of the control parameter in the vicinity of a pitchfork or supercritical bifurcation is known not to affect the location of the threshold. We show, however, that resonance between the modulation and linearly stable modes close to onset can lead to a shift in threshold. Finally, we discuss the classical problem of vorticity diffusion away from a plane boundary that is being vibrated along its own plane. Periodic motion with zero average vorticity production results in an exponential decay of the vorticity away from the boundary. Random vibration, on the other hand, results in power law decay away from the boundary even if vorticity production averages to zero.

Drolet, Francois↗

DOE OSTI2020

C{sub 2}N{sub 2} Vertical Profile in Titan’s Stratosphere

In this paper, we present the first measurements of the vertical distribution of cyanogen (C{sub 2}N{sub 2}) in Titan’s lower atmosphere at different latitudes and seasons, using Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer far-infrared data. We also study the vertical distribution of three other minor species detected in our data: methylacetylene (C{sub 3}H{sub 4}), diacetylene (C{sub 4}H{sub 2}), and H{sub 2}O, in order to compare them to C{sub 2}N{sub 2}, but also to get an overview of their seasonal and meridional variations in Titan’s lower stratosphere from 85 km to 225 km. We measured an average volume mixing ratio of C{sub 2}N{sub 2} of 6.2±0.8×10{sup −11} at 125 km at the equator, but poles exhibit a strong enrichment in C{sub 2}N{sub 2} (up to a factor 100 compared to the equator), greater than what was measured for C{sub 3}H{sub 4} or C{sub 4}H{sub 2}. Measuring C{sub 2}N{sub 2} profiles provides constraints on the processes controlling its distribution, such as bombardment by Galactic Cosmic Rays which seem to have a smaller influence on C{sub 2}N{sub 2} than predicted by photochemical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of Dynamic Polarization Interactions in the Electrical Double Layer at Calcite (104) Interfaces with Aqueous Solutions

Reactions at mineral interfaces with aqueous solutions control many geochemical and biogeochemical processes in the Earth’s critical zone. At the molecular level, insights into important properties such as the structure of the electrical double layer (EDL) at specific mineral interfaces continue to improve due to the increasing fidelity of laboratory instrumentation and computational approaches. However, molecular simulation approaches suffer from limited reach into relevant scales of time, length, and system complexity. To span this gap, a novel hybrid approach that couples first principle plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) with classical DFT (cDFT) is demonstrated and applied to calcite (104) interfaces with various electrolytes. In this approach, a region of interest described using DFT interacts with the surrounding medium described using cDFT to arrive at a self-consistent ground state. Benchmarking against experimental observations and entirely first principle DFT simulations demonstrates that this hybrid model efficiently encompasses the key short-range and collective interactions in the EDL. Simulations of calcite (104)/solution interfaces reveal the key static and dynamic polarization interactions that give rise to structuring of ions and water. Ion hydration interactions have the strongest effect on the depth of the first minimum in the density distribution of counterions at the surface, and the position and width of the first density peak is largely determined by the strength of ion-correlation forces. Finer details of ion distributions are controlled by mutual polarization of the calcite surface and interfacial electrolyte. Finally, this new ability to efficiently and rigorously predict EDL structure at mineral surfaces in contact with complex solutions paves the way to accurately modeling sorption, nucleation, dissolution, and growth in realistic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1996

Predictions of Control Inputs, Periodic Responses and Damping Levels of an Isolated Experimental Rotor in Trimmed Flight

Since the early 1990s the Aeroflightdynamics Directorate at the Ames Research Center has been conducting tests on isolated hingeless rotors in hover and forward flight. The primary objective is to generate a database on aeroelastic stability in trimmed flight for torsionally soft rotors at realistic tip speeds. The rotor test model has four soft inplane blades of NACA 0012 airfoil section with low torsional stiffness. The collective pitch and shaft tilt are set prior to each test run, and then the rotor is trimmed in the following sense: the longitudinal and lateral cyclic pitch controls are adjusted through a swashplate to minimize the 1/rev flapping moment at the 12 percent radial station. In hover, the database comprises lag regressive-mode damping with pitch variations. In forward flight the database comprises cyclic pitch controls, root flap moment and lag regressive-mode damping with advance ratio, shaft angle and pitch variations. This report presents the predictions and their correlation with the database. A modal analysis is used, in which nonrotating modes in flap bending, lag bending and torsion are computed from the measured blade mass and stiffness distributions. The airfoil aerodynamics is represented by the ONERA dynamic stall models of lift, drag and pitching moment, and the wake dynamics is represented by a state-space wake model. The trim analysis of finding, the cyclic controls and the corresponding, periodic responses is based on periodic shooting with damped Newton iteration; the Floquet transition matrix (FTM) comes out as a byproduct. The stabillty analysis of finding the frequencies and damping levels is based on the eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis of the FTM. All the structural and aerodynamic states are included from modeling to trim analysis. A major finding is that dynamic wake dramatically improves the correlation for the lateral cyclic pitch control. Overall, the correlation is fairly good.

Gaonkar, G. H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

When and Where Lithium Plating Occurs, Its Correlation with Microstructure Heterogeneity, and the Mechanisms That Initiate and Self-Regulate Electrochemical Heterogeneity (A02-0444)

A microstructure scale electrochemical LIB model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. Model predicts active material particle surface roughness and size distribution (respectively, non-uniform curvature within and between particles) initiate in-plane heterogeneity, and that particle size heterogeneity at the separator interface controls the lithium plating preferential deposition ("Where"). These in-plane heterogeneities are then exacerbated by through-plane heterogeneities induced at fast charge as electrolyte depletion occurs and concentrates intercalation reaction near the anode-separator interface. Also, magnitude and occurrence of lithium plating is controlled by effective, or macroscale, microstructure parameters ("When"). As local states of charge start to diverge between nearby active material regions, overpotential differences induced by OCP difference kick in and contribute to reduce these SOC local heterogeneities. However, for staged materials such as graphite, with OCP profile alternating between plateaus and varying regions, this balancing mechanism is, respectively, inactive and active. This leads to a dynamic, non-monotonic, in-plane heterogeneity time evolution for state of charge and Faraday current density, for which their respective in-plane heterogeneity magnitude alternates. Such behavior has been modeled both for the whole electrode at the microstructure scale and at the particle scale. In-plane heterogeneities are usually considered to be detrimental, as they result in material non-uniform utilization (i.e., under and over stressed regions) and earlier degradations. However, this work provides a more granular approach as it discriminates between a harmful in-plane heterogeneity (non-uniform curvature) that triggers SOC in-plane heterogeneity, and a beneficial in-plane heterogeneity (Faraday current density) that contributes to reduce SOC in-plane heterogeneity. This work comprehensively explains the mechanisms that initiate, exacerbate, and regulate heterogeneity at the microstructure scale, while providing some design suggestions to reduce both in-plane and through-plane heterogeneities, as summarized in the graphical abstract.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗

NASA NTRS2003

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. This includes completion of a literature survey regarding Weibull size effect in MEMS and strength testing techniques. Also of interest is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in tensile specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. Another potential item of interest is analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structuredlife (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. Along these lines work may also be performed on transient fatigue life prediction methodologies.

Jadaan, Osama M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Physically Based and Stochastic Models for Greenland Moulin Formation, Longevity, and Spatial Distribution

Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially, from the surface to the bed, via moulins. Identification of moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form remain poorly understood. We seek to leverage information gained from the development of a physical model of moulin formation, remotely sensed ice-sheet data products, and an analytic model of ice-flow perturbations to develop a predictive stochastic model of moulin distribution across Greenland. Here we present initial results from the physical model of moulin formation and characterize the sensitivity of moulin geometry to a range of model parameters. This parameterization of moulin formation is the first step in developing a stochastic model that will be a predictive, computationally efficient representation of the englacial hydrologic system.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Control over emergence and alignment of transient blisters in thermo-responsive gels using hierarchically patterned substrates

Surfaces with tunable microscale textures are vital in a large variety of technological applications, including heat transfer, antifouling and adhesion. To facilitate such broad-scale use, there is a need to create surfaces that undergo reconfigurable changes in topology and thus, enable switchable functionality. To date, there is a relative dearth of methods for engineering surfaces that can be actuated to change topography over a range of length scales, and hence, form tunable hierarchically structured layers. Combining modeling and experiments, we design a geometrically patterned, thermo-responsive poly (N-isopropylacrylamide) gel film that undergoes controllable hierarchical changes in topology with changes in temperature. At the bottom, the film is covalently bound to a solid, curved substrate; at the top, the film encompasses longitudinal rectangular ridges that are oriented perpendicular to the underlying cylindrical curves. At temperatures below lower critical solution temperature (LCST), the swollen gel exhibits 3D variations in polymer density and thickness defined by the gel's top and bottom topography. As the temperature rises above LCST, the interplay between the upper ridges and lower curves in the gel drives non-uniform, directional solvent transport, the nucleation and propagation of a phase-separated higher-density skin layer, and the resulting pressure buildup within the film. These different, interacting kinetic processes lead to an instability, which produces transient microscopic blisters in the film. Through simulations, we show how tuning the width of the ridges modifies the propagation of a skin layer and creates localized pressure build-up points, which enables control over the emergence, distribution, and alignment of the microscopic blisters. Futhermore, we provide a simple argument to predict the size of such microscopic features. Experiments confirm our predictions and further highlight how our computational model enables the rational design of topographical transitions in these tunable films. The development of actuatable, hierarchically structured films provides new routes for achieving switchable functionality in actuators, drug release systems and adhesives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2008

Using an Informative Missing Data Model to Predict the Ability to Assess Recovery of Balance Control after Spaceflight

Astronauts show degraded balance control immediately after spaceflight. To assess this change, astronauts' ability to maintain a fixed stance under several challenging stimuli on a movable platform is quantified by "equilibrium" scores (EQs) on a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 represents perfect control (sway angle of 0) and 0 represents data loss where no sway angle is observed because the subject has to be restrained from falling. By comparing post- to pre-flight EQs for actual astronauts vs. controls, we built a classifier for deciding when an astronaut has recovered. Future diagnostic performance depends both on the sampling distribution of the classifier as well as the distribution of its input data. Taking this into consideration, we constructed a predictive ROC by simulation after modeling P(EQ = 0) in terms of a latent EQ-like beta-distributed random variable with random effects.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗