Energy flexibility quantification of a tropical net-zero office building using physically consistent neural network-based model predictive control
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Energy consumption in buildings has been steadily increasing and contributing up to 40% of the total energy use in developed countries [1]. In developing countries, the share of building energy consumption is smaller, but given population growth, urbanization, and rising demands for building services and comfort, the sharp rise of building energy use is probably inevitable. Thus, reducing building energy consumption plays a very important role in controlling global energy demand and mitigating climate change, so as to develop a sustainable environment. Solar energy, as the most important source of renewable energy, features the characteristics of clean, renewable, inexhaustible, and widely distributed energy, relative to other kinds of energy sources. Solar energy systems can now generate electricity at a cost equal to or lower than local grid-supplied electricity [2]. More importantly, solar energy can provide almost all forms of energy needed by buildings, through active or passive methods.
A novel approach using decoupled processes to harness offshore renewable energy, from marine hydrokinetics, ocean waves, wind, and solar to produce liquid air, is presented here. Offshore renewables interconnection using submarine medium- and high-voltage direct current technologies are used to produce liquid air that can be transported to end-use locations using repurposed liquefied natural gas tankers. Two important possibilities arise from using the proposed technology. The first possibility allows the integration with conventional thermal cycles to improve efficiency. This approach can be used to leverage efficiencies of thermal systems that have already reached a plateau in the maximum achievable efficiency via design and operation optimization. The second possibility is related to the incorporation of low temperature cycles to recover waste heat from other thermal processes. This is important considering that waste heat accounts for more than 60% of the consumed energy in the United States. A detailed technical description of the complete cycle from cryogen generation to end-use of energy is provided. Estimation of efficiency enhancement for thermal plants using liquid air including waste heat recovery is presented.
Heat pumps represent an important opportunity for energy savings and decarbonization. This work investigates the techno-economic performance of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) for use in the U.S. dairy industry. The studied heat pump performs a 50 °C temperature lift on a waste heat stream of cleaning water and applies the upgraded heat stream to a fluid milk pasteurization process. This work involved the creation of a HTHP model that estimated the coefficient of performance (COP), internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PBP), and emissions saved for a heat pump replacing a natural gas boiler. Capital costs, operations, and maintenance (O&M) cost, heat pump lifetime, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and a cost of carbon were varied to perform a parametric study on the factors affecting the break-even price of HTHPs. The results show that HTHP economics are highly sensitive to COP and energy price environment, and less sensitive to capital and O&M cost variance, leading to a large scatter of positive and negative NPVs based on U.S. location. PBPs demonstrate a defined threshold, based on energy price environment, below which favorable two-to-three-year PBPs predominate. This work is focused on the U.S. dairy industry, but international application in relation to fossil vs. electricity price regimes. Heat pumps have seen wider adoption in regions with a high ratio of fossil energy to electricity prices ($/MMBTU vs. $/kWh). The U.S. has plentiful natural gas resulting in lower fossil energy prices which has reduced heat pump adoption. This paper identifies potential first mover industries for HTHP adoption and their associated price regimes even in regions with lower ratios of fossil energy to electricity prices that exist many places globally.
Household energy resilience, particularly maintaining essential energy services within an acceptable and affordable level, is critical during extreme weather events (e.g., winter storms, heat waves) with power shortages or outages. However, the research on the importance and acceptable compromise levels of energy services, HVAC usage behavior changes, and willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services during disasters is limited. Therefore, this study investigates the importance and compromise of household energy services, HVAC usage behaviors, and WTP, as three key dimensions of household energy resilience, in both normal days and disaster scenarios through surveys (n=485). First, 12 common residential end-uses are grouped into high, mid, and low-priority services using hierarchical clustering, in which high-priority services (perceived as important and un-compromisable) include food cooking and storage (refrigerator and freezer) and thermal comfort (space heating and cooling), mid-priority services involve water heating and lighting, while low-priority services are mostly related to entertainment and housework (e.g., TV, laundry). Also, HVAC use patterns demonstrate that occupants become more energy conservative during disasters, e.g., reducing durations of running HVAC and adjusting temperature setpoints to save energy. In terms of energy cost, approximately 60% of respondents are willing to pay more to maintain energy services during disasters, although only 13% are prepared to pay over double the normal energy prices. The regression models further reveal that household energy resilience varies across different sociodemographic groups (e.g., age, income, family size) and is impacted by disaster experience and beliefs in clean energy and climate. In conclusion, these research findings provide important perspectives to understand household energy resilience and inform measures for disaster adaptation of households in extreme weather events.
Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.
This paper reviews empirical data from evaluations of the influence of residential energy efficiency retrofits on indoor environmental quality conditions and self-reported thermal comfort and health. The data were extracted from 36 studies described in 44 papers plus two reports. Nearly all reviewed studies were performed in Europe or United States. Most studies evaluated retrofits of homes with low-income occupants. Indoor radon and formaldehyde concentrations tended to increase after retrofits that did not add whole-house mechanical ventilation. Study-average indoor concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and volatile organic compounds other than formaldehyde increased and decreased with approximately equal frequency. Average indoor temperatures during winter typically increased after retrofits, usually by less than 1.5 °C. Dampness and mold, usually based on occupant's reports, almost always decreased after retrofits. Subjectively reported thermal comfort, thermal discomfort, non-asthma respiratory symptoms, general health, and mental health nearly always improved after retrofits. For asthma symptoms, the evidence of improvement slightly outweighed the evidence of worsening. There was insufficient evidence to determine whether changes in thermal comfort and health outcomes varied depending on the type of energy efficiency retrofit. The published research has numerous limitations including a lack of data from retrofits in warm-humid climates and minimal data on changes in objective health outcomes. Suggestions for future research are provided.
Maintaining indoor air quality (IAQ) through effective ventilation is essential for the well-being and productivity of building occupants. Control strategies aimed at improving the efficiency of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems must jointly determine ventilation and heating and cooling processes. Here, in this paper, we study the problem of minimizing the energy consumption of the HVAC system in a multi-zone building, while meeting thermal comfort and IAQ requirements. We first perform a steady state analysis of the zonal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and the temperature dynamics. The resulting expressions are convex in the zonal mass flow rates and zonal temperatures. Guided by the steady state solutions for meeting the thermal comfort constraints, we develop two control policies for improving the energy efficiency of building HVAC systems while jointly satisfying indoor temperature and IAQ constraints. We compare the performance of our proposed approaches with those of multiple baseline approaches which implement separate regimes for controlling zonal temperature and IAQ for a typical work-day in a multi-zone campus building. We have evaluated the performance of our proposed approaches under varying levels of flexibility in zonal temperatures. We have shown that zonal temperature flexibility can result in energy savings up to 32% (for the same control strategies) as compared to the case where no such flexibility is permitted. Our proposed approaches were seen to offer potential savings of nearly 29% compared to the baseline.
Row houses, a prevalent medium-density urban archetype, were popularized during industrial era to accommodate the working class in the U.S. cities. Today, many of these structures are deteriorating, exacerbating the energy cost for residents with limited economic resources. Moreover, many households that lack Air Conditioning (AC) are vulnerable to extreme summer heat, an issue expected to worsen in the future. Energy-efficient retrofits can help mitigate these challenges. However, current literature provides limited insight into how existing building energy codes impact the energy efficiency and thermal resilience of row houses in current and future weather scenarios. This study provides a detailed method to address this gap by employing calibrated representative energy models of row houses as a baseline, and evaluating the annual energy savings and summertime thermal safety improvements from code compliant retrofits under current and future typical weather conditions. Using Baltimore City as a case study, results show that under current weather, retrofitting row houses yields significant energy savings along with notable thermal resilience improvements. The end unit row house realizes higher energy savings, whereas the interior unit experiences greater thermal resilience improvement after retrofitting. In future, retrofitted row houses can still save energy, but residents will face numerous hours of fatal indoor temperatures without AC in summer. Additionally, findings reveal stark zone-wise variations in thermal safety, and elevated humidity risks in certain zones post-retrofit, emphasizing the need for zonal retrofit strategies and better natural ventilation strategies.
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Building owners usually select energy efficiency measures (EEMs) by referring to return on investment (ROI). Current studies tend to apply static energy price to estimate ROI. However, more and more buildings are adopting dynamic electricity pricing programs. To understand how electricity pricing programs impact the selection of EEMs, this paper presents an analysis of the ROIs of EEMs under different pricing programs using U.S. medium office buildings as an example. Eight EEMs in four typical cities are selected as case studies. Considering five electricity pricing programs scenarios (one static program and four dynamic programs), EEMs are selected based on their ROIs. The main findings are: (1) The ROIs of EEMs change under different pricing programs. (2) In Honolulu, Buffalo, and Denver, replacing interior fixtures with higher-efficiency fixtures has a significantly higher ROI than the rest EEMs under all five pricing programs. However, the ROI of this EEM in Honolulu ranges from 28% to 47% for different pricing programs. (3) Similarly, in Fairbanks, replace heating coil with higher-efficiency coil produce higher ROI than the rest under all five pricing programs. (4) For other EEMs, their ROI rankings vary according to electricity pricing programs.
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The residential building sector accounts for a substantial portion of total energy consumption in the United States and offers a significant opportunity for energy reduction and decarbonization through improvements in energy efficiency. Heating and air conditioning are the primary contributors to residential energy usage and electricity system peak demand. However, due to the diversity of the housing stock and the complexity of factors affecting heating and cooling demand, identifying the relative contributions to heating and cooling loads poses challenges. To address this, we applied the ResStock analysis tool to simulate 550,000 building energy models, providing statistical representation of residential buildings in the contiguous United States. We introduced outputs that quantified the heating and cooling influence of different components of a home, such as air leakage, envelope components (ceilings, walls, windows, foundations), internal heat gains from people, lighting, plug loads, and duct losses and gains. Leveraging the granularity of ResStock, we present a dataset to enable deeper understanding of the contributors to heating and cooling loads as a function of housing characteristics such as location, envelope efficiency, and building type. This work aims to support prioritization of research and development and informed decision-making for residential building decarbonization.
The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.
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Energy decision models are widely used to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of renewable energy, as well as to help inform the deployment of these technologies. However, a gap exists between the optimal model solutions and what is deployed. This paper explores why these gaps exist in the public sector using the results of interviews with 20 federal, state, and city government agencies that have used the Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt™) model to inform energy decisions. We then propose adaptations to technical modeling capabilities, and communication of results, which may help increase clean energy deployment. This research may be useful to both analytical modelers and the organizations using such decision tools to inform policy, regulation, planning, and deployment of clean energy systems.
Here, this paper examines the relationships between energy efficient (EE) capital technology and household energy insecurity in the United States. The theoretical model of these relationships employs household production theory to capture the demand for and production of household energy services, and a stochastic production frontier approach to describe how having access to and the usage intensity of EE capital technology could help alleviate inefficiency in the production of household energy services. A working hypothesis formulated from the theoretical model posits that having EE capital technology in the home will reduce the level of household energy insecurity experienced. The extent of energy insecurity experienced is inferred from an energy insecurity index value assigned to each household, generated via the application of a dichotomous Rasch model to questions contained in the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey. Noting the potential simultaneous relationship that exists between a household having access to and the usage intensity of EE capital technology and the experience of being energy insecure, an instrumental variables approach was employed to estimate a series of ordered logit models. Results suggest access to EE capital technology in the form of Energy Star® appliances, Energy Star® windows, or a SMART thermostat does not reduce the probability of experiencing a greater level of energy insecurity. Nor does the usage intensity of EE capital. Thus, policy instruments designed to alleviate household energy insecurity may need to go beyond simply helping households obtain EE capital technology.