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DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2023

Correlated Trajectory Uncertainty for Adaptive Sequential Decision Making

One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.

Offline Reinforcement Learning↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Sensitivity of Chemical Kinetic Models on Flame Transfer Functions in Acoustic Fluctuation Environments with Varying Equivalence Ratios

Various factors affect the heat release response of flames – thermodynamics, hydrodynamics, acoustics, etc. The coupling of heat release rate and acoustics, in particular, is essential to the design of combustion devices so as to avoid adverse effects during their operation. Modeling flames in acoustic environments requires an accurate understanding of the fundamental physics that occurs when flames interact with a fluctuating pressure field. Over the past couple of decades, researchers have been quantifying the impact of this fluctuating pressure field on the unsteady heat release rate. The flame transfer functions computed have also been shown to depend on the level of detail in the chemical kinetic model. This paper attempts to bridge the gap between these studies to understand how sensitive the flame transfer function is to various kinetic models. The problem is studied by performing multiple one-dimensional simulations using the low-Mach solver NGA. The detailed GRI-Mech 3.0 will be used for comparison. Also, the pressure amplitude and reactant equivalence ratio are varied to understand how the environment affects this sensitivity.

Girdhar, Anant↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing resource allocation in Miscanthus breeding via sparse testing designs for genomic prediction

Phenotyping high-biomass perennial crops is laborious and the rate of genetic gain in conventional perennial crop breeding programs is typically low. So, it is especially important to identify methods that produce efficiency gains in the breeding process. Miscanthus is a C4 perennial grass with favorable characteristics for producing biomass as a feedstock for biofuels and diverse bio-based products. Increasing biomass yield will increase profitability and environmental benefits, so it is a key target for Miscanthus breeding. In addition, the identification of well-adapted genotypes across a wide range of environmental conditions requires the establishment of multi-environment trials (METs). Sparse testing is a genomic prediction-based strategy that reduces the phenotyping costs in METs by selecting a subset of genotypes to evaluate in a subset of environments and then predicts the performance of the unobserved genotype-environment combinations. A Miscanthus sacchariflorus (MSA) population comprising 336 genotypes observed across three environments was analyzed implementing sparse testing designs. Three prediction models considering main effects (environments, genotypes, genomic) and interaction effects (genotype-by-environment; G×E interaction) were implemented for forecasting dry biomass yield (YDY), total culm (TCM), average internode length (AIL), and culm node number (CNN). Multiple calibration sets based on different compositions and sizes were considered to evaluate performance in terms of the predictive ability (PA) and the mean square error (MSE) for a fixed testing set size. The training set size ranged from 52 to 112 to predict a fixed set of 224 unobserved genotypes across all three environments. The results showed that the model accounting for G×E interaction consistently presented the highest PA and the lowest MSE: for CNN (PA: ~0.77, MSE: ~0.5) and YDY (PA: ~0.70, MSE: ~1.3) while for TCM and AIL these ranged from ~0.28 to 0.41 and ~1.3 to 4.3, respectively. Overall, varying training sets and allocation strategies did not affect PA and MSE, with 52 non-overlapping and 0 overlapping genotypes per environment as the optimal cost-effective allocation framework. This suggests that implementing sparse testing designs could significantly reduce phenotyping costs by fivefold, without compromising PA in breeding programs for perennial crops such as Miscanthus.

Miscanthus sacchariflorus (MSA)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mechanistic modeling of copper corrosions in data center environments

Air-side economizers are increasingly used to take advantage of “free-cooling” in data centers with the intent of reducing the carbon footprint of buildings. However, they can introduce outdoor pollutants to indoor environment of data centers and cause corrosion damage to the information technology equipment. Here, to evaluate the reliability of information technology equipment under various thermal and air-pollution conditions, a mechanistic model based on multi-ion transport and chemical reactions was developed. The model was used to predict Cu corrosion caused by Cl2-containing pollutant mixtures. It also accounted for the effects of temperature (25 °C and 28 °C), relative humidity (50%, 75%, and 95%), and synergism. It also identified higher air temperature as a corrosion barrier and higher relative humidity as a corrosion accelerator, which agreed well with the experimental results. The average root mean square error of the prediction was 13.7 Å. The model can be used to evaluate the thermal guideline for data centers design and operation when Cl2 is present based on pre-established acceptable risk of corrosion in data centers’ environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF A PCM-BASED OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY HARVESTER FOR POWERING UNMANNED UNDERWATER VEHICLES

As oceans cover over 70% of the planet’s surface, they represent a large reservoir of resources that remained vastly untapped. Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are becoming key technology for ocean exploration. Ocean thermal gradient is a permanent and reliable energy source that can be used to power UUVs using phase change material (PCM)-based thermal engines. However, the main drawback of this technology is its low conversion efficiency. When using PCM-based thermal engines to power UUVs, there are different energy conversion stages, thermal-hydraulic, hydraulic-kinetic, kinetic-electrical, dependent of a wide variety of parameters. Thus, optimization of the overall energy conversion is still a challenge for powering the increasing energy demanding UUVs for long missions. The goal of this study is to propose a PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting system for powering the Solo II float. Using the ocean thermal energy reduces the cost for battery replacement and expands the float’s mission time. For this purpose, we developed a multiphysics model for a system consisting of thermal material, hydraulic, and electrical systems. This system is designed to provide the electrical power needed for the instruments aboard the underwater vehicle. The models of the hydraulic and the electric systems are implemented in MATLAB-Simulink/Simscape environment. The final model developed can provide 13.66 kJ of electrical energy, which is more than 1.5 times the energy requirement per cycle for the SOLO II float.

Ouro-Koura, Habilou↗

DOE OSTI2023

phenix v. 7.0

SAND2021-6741 O phenix is Sandia's orchestration tool that allows users to quickly deploy, un-deploy, and interact with SCEPTRE ICS environments. phenix is an orchestration tool used for managing the creation, configuration, and deployment of modeling and simulation environments. As an abstraction layer on top of an underlying virtual machine manager called minimega, phenix organizes the network, application, and scenario information for a given deployment. It allows users to create, configure, and deploy experiments in a repeatable and rapid fashion. An application framework provides the flexibility to manipulate an experiment to suit various needs and requirements. phenix also includes a web-based graphical user interface (GUI) where experiments can be created, configured, and interacted with.

Sahakian, Meghan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Frequency Emitter Geolocation Using Signal Strength Fingerprinting Informed By 3D Propagation Modeling

This work focuses on the problem of RF geolocation in complex multipath environments. Using 3D electromagnetic propagation modeling to characterize environments of interest will enable more accurate RF geolocation. Specifically, a path-loss radio map can be generated in simulation for use in received signal strength indicators (RSSI) fingerprinting, or pattern matching. RSSI fingerprinting is an example of data-based method that takes site specific information into account which should allow for better performance than other model-based methods that use a generalized model of electromagnetic propagation. This modeling capability will also be used to evaluate the relative performance of RSSI fingerprinting, pathloss model based RSSI methods such as differential received signal strength circles (DRSS), RSSI joint gaussian estimation, and time-difference of arrival (TDOA). New methods using this simulation derived electromagnetic characterization could improve the efficacy of currently deployed and future RF spectral monitoring solutions. Wireless InSite developed by Remcom is used as the simulation tool of choice in this work. An indoor location is simulated with a grid of fixed receivers and a grid of transmit locations. Using the output of the Wireless InSite simulation the response from a given transmit location to a given receive location can be generated. During the first year of the project various geolocation methods evaluated on purely synthetic, but realistic, data. The second year focused on testing and validating the efficacy of simulation informed RF geolocation using two physical testbeds. This work has shown that data-based approaches are more accurate than model-based ones at the expensive of requiring measured or simulated site-specific training data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Bias Correction on Large–Scale Environment of High–Impact Weather Systems in E3SM Atmosphere Model

Large–scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes are common environmental drivers of high–impact weather systems causing extreme weather events. However, such large–scale environmental conditions often display systematic biases in climate simulations, posing challenges to evaluating high–impact weather systems and extreme weather events. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach was employed to bias correct the large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity simulated by the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) at ~1° resolution. The usefulness of the ML approach for extreme weather analysis was demonstrated with a focus on three high–impact weather systems, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). We show that the ML model can effectively reduce climate bias in large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity while preserving their responses to imposed climate change perturbations. The bias correction is found to directly improve water vapor transport associated with ARs, and representations of thermodynamical flows associated with ETCs. When the bias–corrected large–scale winds are used to drive a synthetic TC track forecast model over the Atlantic basin, the resulting TC track density agrees better with that of the TC track model driven by observed winds. In addition, the ML model insignificantly interferes with the mean climate change signals of large–scale storm environments as well as the occurrence and intensity of three weather systems. This study suggests that the proposed ML approach can be used to improve the downscaling of extreme weather events by providing more realistic large–scale storm environments simulated by low–resolution climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A multi-modal scanning system to digitize CBRNE emergency response scenes

A handheld system developed to digitize a contextual understanding of the scene at a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and/or explosives (CBRNE) events is described. The system uses LiDAR and cameras to create a colorized 3D model of the environment, which helps domain experts that are supporting responders in the field. To generate the digitized model, a responder scans any suspicious objects and the surroundings by carrying the system through the scene. The scanning system provides a real-time user interface to inform the user about scanning progress and to indicate any areas that may have been missed either by the LiDAR sensors or the cameras. Currently, the collected data are post-processed on a different device, building a colorized triangular mesh of the encountered scene, with the intention of moving this pipeline to the scanner at a later point. The mesh is sufficiently compressed to be sent over a reduced bandwidth connection to a remote analyst. Furthermore, the system tracks fiducial markers attached to diagnostic equipment that is placed around the suspicious object. The resulting tracking information can be transmitted to remote analysts to further facilitate their supporting efforts. The paper will discuss the system's design, software components, the user interface used for scanning a scene, the necessary procedures for calibration of the sensors, and the processing steps of the resulting data. The discussion will close by evaluating the system's performance on 11 scenes.

Salathe, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2022

A multi-modal scanning system to digitize CBRNE emergency response scenes

Prins, Nicholas↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid electric buses fuel consumption prediction based on real-world driving data

Estimating fuel consumption by hybrid diesel buses is challenging due to its diversified operations and driving cycles. Here, long-term transit bus monitoring data were utilized to empirically compare fuel consumption of diesel and hybrid buses under various driving conditions. Artificial neural network (ANN) based high-fidelity microscopic (1 Hz) and mesoscopic (5–60 min) fuel consumption models were developed for hybrid buses. The microscopic model contained 1 Hz driving, grade, and environment variables. The mesoscopic model aggregated 1 Hz data into 5 to 60-minute traffic pattern factors and predicted average fuel consumption over its duration. The prediction results show mean absolute percentage errors of 1–2% for microscopic models and 5–8% for mesoscopic models. The data were partitioned by different driving speeds, vehicle engine demand, and road grade to investigate their impacts on prediction performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A quantum algorithm for evolving open quantum dynamics on quantum computing devices

Abstract Designing quantum algorithms for simulating quantum systems has seen enormous progress, yet few studies have been done to develop quantum algorithms for open quantum dynamics despite its importance in modeling the system-environment interaction found in most realistic physical models. In this work we propose and demonstrate a general quantum algorithm to evolve open quantum dynamics on quantum computing devices. The Kraus operators governing the time evolution can be converted into unitary matrices with minimal dilation guaranteed by the Sz.-Nagy theorem. This allows the evolution of the initial state through unitary quantum gates, while using significantly less resource than required by the conventional Stinespring dilation. We demonstrate the algorithm on an amplitude damping channel using the IBM Qiskit quantum simulator and the IBM Q 5 Tenerife quantum device. The proposed algorithm does not require particular models of dynamics or decomposition of the quantum channel, and thus can be easily generalized to other open quantum dynamical models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

CGSim: A Simulation Framework for Large Scale Distributed Computing Environment

Large-scale distributed computing infrastructures such as the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) require comprehensive simulation tools for evaluating performance, testing new algorithms, and optimizing resource allocation strategies. However, existing simulators suffer from limited scalability, hardwired algorithms, lack of real-time monitoring, and inability to generate datasets suitable for modern machine learning approaches. We present CGSim, a simulation framework for large-scale distributed computing environments that addresses these limitations. Built upon the validated SimGrid simulation framework, CGSim provides high-level abstractions for modeling heterogeneous grid environments while maintaining accuracy and scalability. Key features include a modular plugin mechanism for testing custom workflow scheduling and data movement policies, interactive real-time visualization dashboards, and automatic generation of event-level datasets suitable for AI-assisted performance modeling. We demonstrate CGSim’s capabilities through a comprehensive evaluation using production ATLAS PanDA workloads, showing significant calibration accuracy improvements across WLCG computing sites. Scalability experiments show near-linear scaling for multi-site simulations, with distributed workloads achieving 6 × better performance compared to single-site execution. The framework enables researchers to simulate WLCG-scale infrastructures with hundreds of sites and thousands of concurrent jobs within practical time budget constraints on commodity hardware.

Vatsavai, Sairam Sri [Brookhaven National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Arctic boundary layer cloud streets at grey-zone resolutions

To better understand how model resolution affects the formation of Arctic boundary layer clouds, we investigated the influence of grid spacing on simulating cloud streets that occurred near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska on 2 May 2013 and were observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the clouds using nested domains with increasingly fine resolution ranging from a horizontal grid spacing of 27 km in the boundary-layer-parameterized mesoscale domain to a grid spacing of 0.111 km in the large-eddy-permitting domain. We investigated the model-simulated mesoscale environment, horizontal and vertical cloud structures, boundary layer stability, and cloud properties, all of which were subsequently used to interpret the observed roll-cloud case. Increasing model resolution led to a transition from a more buoyant boundary layer to a more shear-driven turbulent boundary layer. The clouds were stratiform-like in the mesoscale domain, but as the model resolution increased, roll-like structures, aligned along the wind field, appeared with ever smaller wavelengths. A stronger vertical water vapor gradient occurred above the cloud layers with decreasing grid spacing. With fixed model grid spacing at 0.333 km, changing the model configuration from a boundary layer parameterization to a large-eddy-permitting scheme produced a more shear-driven and less unstable environment, a stronger vertical water vapor gradient below the cloud layers, and the wavelengths of the rolls decreased slightly. In this study, only the large-eddy-permitting simulation with gird spacing of 0.111 km was sufficient to model the observed roll clouds.

Lai, Hui-Wen↗