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NASA NTRS1988

Implications of asteroid composition for the geochemistry of the ancient terrestrial projectile flux

The discovery of enhanced siderophile abundances at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary has provoked many searches for geochemical signatures which could reveal other catastrophic impacts in Earth's history. These searches implicitly assume that most large impactors are of chondritic, iron, or stony-iron composition, with a greatly enhanced abundance of siderophile elements. Impactors composed of asteroidal crust or mantle rocks analogous to the achondritic meteorites would not leave a distinct geochemical trace since their siderophile abundances are grossly similar to those of the Earth's crust. In recent years studies of the mineralogical composition of the current asteroid belt have suggested that the composition of impacting projectiles may be highly variable with both projectile size and time. In particular it seems possible that in the distant past projectiles derived from asteroid mantle material may have caused a large fraction of the cratering events on Earth. Such impacts would be missed by any geochemical search relying on iridium or any other siderophile element. The questions of the effect of size and time variations on projectile composition and the significance of hidden impacts missing in current geochemical searches are examined.

Bell, Jeffrey F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On magnetodynamic effects initiated by a high-speed impact of a large cosmic body upon the Earth's surface

The impact of a large cosmic body with typical size R approximately = 1 km (mass M approximately = 4-10 Gt for a stony or icy body) moving with velocity V approximately = 50-70 km/s (kinetic energy of the order of 10 exp 21 J or 10 exp 6 Mt of TMT) on the Earth's surface leads to a full vaporization of a body and of a significant part of substance of the upper layers of the Earth and even to the ionization of this vapor cloud. As a result, a hypersonic jet of air and erosion plasma is formed. The kinetic energy E sub J is far above the total energy of the geomagnetic field of the Earth (approximately equivalent to the energy of 100 Mt) and the total mass of a fast-moving part of the jet M sub j approximately = 10 exp 12 kg is far above the mass of atmosphere in the jet expansion cone. Thus, the jet will propagate practically inertially with the constant mean velocity U approximately = 10-20 km/s and even higher. The interaction of this plasma jet with the Earth's magnetic field causes magnetodynamic effects similar to those which are produced by cosmic nuclear explosions but of a larger scale. The preliminary results of experimental and numerical modeling of the plasma jet-magnetosphere interaction are presented.

Nemchinov, I. V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗
NASA NTRS1988

Biospheric traumas caused by large impacts and predicted relics in the sedimentary record

When a large asteroid or comet impacts the Earth the supersonic plume ejected on impact causes severe shock heating and chemical reprocessing of the proximal atmosphere. The resultant NO is converted rapidly to NO2, foliage damage due to exposure to NO2 and HNO3, toxicosis resulting from massive mobilization of soil trace metals, and faunal asphyxiation due to exposure to NO2. One class of relic evidence for the above effects arises because extinction of species caused by these chemically induced traumas would be selective. A second class of relic evidence arises because the acid rain will cause massive weathering of continental rocks and soils characterized by large ratios of the relatively insoluble metals, to the more soluble metals. This weathering would be best recorded in fossils in unperturbed deltaic, neritic, or limnetic sediments and for metals with very long oceanic residence times in deep ocean sediments as well. This evidence is discussed.

Prinn, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Big Science in Small Packages: a Constellation of Cubesats to Search for Near Earth Asteroids

Astronomers for many decades have been searching for Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) that could potentially impact the Earth in the future. Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), when completed, would be by far the most powerful tool for a ground-based search for NEAs. In space, IR telescopes are undergoing detailed design studies. These facilities are projected to find 90% of potentially hazardous NEAs in about a dozen years. We introduce a different approach to search for these objects by using multiple micro- and nano-spacecraft distributed in orbit around the Sun. Their ability to faint moving objects with small telescopes is based on a new generation of low noise, fast-frame cameras combined with processors that can execute 100’s of gigaflops in a low power space environment.

Shao, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Impact Hazard

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS1986

Impact-induced atmospheres and oceans on earth and Venus

The effects of planetesimal-impact induced atmosphere formation on the earth and Venus are modeled to gain an indication why the two planets, at relatively equal distances from the sun, evolved so differently. Both planets gained approximately 10 to the 21 kg of water from the impacts. The water mass of the accreting planetesimals would have remained, initially, as a hot atmosphere. A two-stream approximation is defined for the temperature profile of a plane parallel atmosphere in radiative equilibrium. It is shown that the Venus atmosphere did not, as happened on earth, condense into a hot ocean after the impact epoch. Instead, the greenhouse effect caused the Venus equilibrium thermal structure to remain higher than the vapor pressure, keepinig the atmosphere in a vapor phase until the vapor dissociated and H2 atoms eventually escaped into space.

Matsui, T.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Thermal equilibration of the earth following a giant impact

A thermal evolution model for the cooling of a terrestrial planet, a prescribed fraction of which is melted during a giant impact, is described. Two model geometries are considered, one having a laterally inhomogeneous distribution of melt and solid through a mega-crater geometry and the other having a global magma ocean. It is found that almost the whole planet may melt if the impact originally melted half of the planet and if the first melt temperature was double a typical planet melting temperature. For reasonable choices of parameter values it is determined that thermal equilibration of the earth occurs on a time-scale of 1 to ten million years.

Spohn, Tilman↗
NASA NTRS1992

Impacts and tectonism in Earth and moon history of the past 3800 million years

The moon's surface, unlike the Earth's, displays a comparatively clear record of its past bombardment history for the last 3800 Myr, the time since active lunar tectonism under the massive premare bombardment ended. From Baldwin's (1987) tabulation of estimated ages for a representative sample of large lunar craters younger than 3800 Ma, six major cratering episodes can be discerned. These six bombardment episodes, which must have affected the Earth too, appear to match in time the six major episodes of orogenic tectonism on Earth, despite typical resolution errors of +/- 100 Myr and the great uncertainties of the two chronologies. Since more highly resolved events during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras suggest the same correlation, it is possible that large impacts have influenced plate tectonics and other aspects of geologic history, perhaps by triggering flood basalt eruptions.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Invited review: gravitational biology of the neuromotor systems: a perspective to the next era

Earth's gravity has had a significant impact on the designs of the neuromotor systems that have evolved. Early indications are that gravity also plays a key role in the ontogenesis of some of these design features. The purpose of the present review is not to assess and interpret a body of knowledge in the usual sense of a review but to look ahead, given some of the general concepts that have evolved and observations made to date, which can guide our future approach to gravitational biology. We are now approaching an era in gravitational biology during which well-controlled experiments can be conducted for sustained periods in a microgravity environment. Thus it is now possible to study in greater detail the role of gravity in phylogenesis and ontogenesis. Experiments can range from those conducted on the simplest levels of organization of the components that comprise the neuromotor system to those conducted on the whole organism. Generally, the impact of Earth's gravitational environment on living systems becomes more complex as the level of integration of the biological phenomenon of interest increases. Studies of the effects of gravitational vectors on neuromotor systems have and should continue to provide unique insight into these mechanisms that control and maintain neural control systems designed to function in Earth's gravitational environment. A number of examples are given of how a gravitational biology perspective can lead to a clearer understanding of neuromotor disorders. Furthermore, the technologies developed for spaceflight studies have contributed and should continue to contribute to studies of motor dysfunctions, such as spinal cord injury and stroke. Disorders associated with energy support and delivery systems and how these functions are altered by sedentary life styles at 1 G and by space travel in a microgravity environment are also discussed.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of NASA's Earth Observations on Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts

NASA's suite of Earth-observing satellites provides a unique view of many processes on Earth, with relevance on timescales ranging from hours to weeks and even years. NASA's observations span all parts of the Earth system: atmospheric, ocean, land and cryosphere, and include physical, chemical and biological components. This presentation explores use of NASA observations in extended-range prediction, from many days to months, using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation and predictive modeling capabilities. The skill of a weather forecast is linked to the fidelity of the initialization process (data assimilation) and the realistic representation of "fast" physical processes in the model. At longer time horizons, the slower "feedback" processes in the Earth System begin to take a more prominent role in the accuracy of the forecast. Simultaneously, forecast-skill attribution transitions away from feature-based metrics that emphasize smaller scales (e.g., representations of fronts and vortices) to metrics that emphasize the statistical distributions of large-scale features (e.g., ENSO diagnostics and teleconnections). This presentation will summarize studies performed using the GEOS-S2S (subseasonal to seasonal) system that explore the impacts of NASA observations on the fidelity of the forecasts. The GEOS-S2S system is configured for the atmosphere-ocean-land-ice model and is initialized using in-situ and space-based observations, including atmospheric aerosols and ozone which are not typically analyzed in such systems. The GEOS-S2S model routinely includes aerosol feedbacks, which systematically impact the realism of the forecasts, providing a first example of how suitable NASA observations impact the performance of the GEOS-S2S system. Studies in which a stratospheric chemistry module is activated in the GEOS-S2S system allow the impacts of ozone radiative feedbacks to be isolated. Space-based observations of sea-surface temperature and altimetry are routinely analyzed for the initialization of the GEOS-S2S system; recent advances allow the use of NASA's sea-surface salinity data, which are shown to impact the long-range skill of the forecasts.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cloudy with a Chance of Solar Flares: The Sun as a Natural Hazard

Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that represents a quantifiable risk to space- and ground-based infrastructure as well as society at large. Space weather hazards include permanent and correctable faults in computer systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-frequency communication disturbances, increased airline passenger and astronaut radiation exposure, and electric grid disruption. From the National Space Weather Strategy, published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in October 2015, space weather refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the Sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth's magnetic field, potentially disrupting technologies and infrastructures. Space weather is measured using a range of space- and ground-based platforms that directly monitor the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field, the conditions in interplanetary space and impacts at Earth's surface, like neutron ground-level enhancement. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Research Center and their international collaborators in government, industry, and academia are working towards improved techniques for predicting space weather as part of the strategy and action plan to better quantify and mitigate space weather hazards. In addition to accurately measuring and predicting space weather, we also need to continue developing more advanced techniques for evaluating space weather impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructure. Within the Earth's atmosphere, elevated neutron flux driven by atmosphere-particle interactions from space weather is a primary risk source. Ground-based neutron sources form an essential foundation for quantifying space weather impacts in a variety of systems.

neutron flux↗
NASA NTRS2007

Earth Observations to Assess Impact of Hurricane Katrina on John C. Stennis Space Center

The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.

Graham, William D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Water Impact Prediction Tool for Recoverable Rockets

Reusing components from a rocket launch can be cost saving. NASA's space shuttle system has reusable components that return to the Earth and impact the ocean. A primary example is the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) that descends on parachutes to the Earth after separation and impacts the ocean. Water impact generates significant structural loads that can damage the booster, so it is important to study this event in detail in the design of the recovery system. Some recent examples of damage due to water impact include the Ares I-X First Stage deformation as seen in Figure 1 and the loss of the SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage.To ensure that a component can be recovered or that the design of the recovery system is adequate, an adequate set of structural loads is necessary for use in failure assessments. However, this task is difficult since there are many conditions that affect how a component impacts the water and the resulting structural loading that a component sees. These conditions include the angle of impact with respect to the water, the horizontal and vertical velocities, the rotation rate, the wave height and speed, and many others. There have been attempts to simulate water impact. One approach is to analyze water impact using explicit finite element techniques such as those employed by the LS-Dyna tool [1]. Though very detailed, this approach is time consuming and would not be suitable for running Monte Carlo or optimization analyses. The purpose of this paper is to describe a multi-body simulation tool that runs quickly and that captures the environments a component might see. The simulation incorporates the air and water interaction with the component, the component dynamics (i.e. modes and mode shapes), any applicable parachutes and lines, the interaction of winds and gusts, and the wave height and speed. It is capable of quickly conducting Monte Carlo studies to better capture the environments and genetic algorithm optimizations to reproduce a flight.

Rooker, William↗