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DOE OSTI2020

The influence of wintertime SST variability in the Western North Pacific on ENSO diversity

Abstract Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) have been linked to the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events a full year in advance. However, the contribution of the WNP precursor to the temporal evolution and spatial complexity of ENSO remains unclear. Using the preindustrial experiment of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, a partially coupled experiment is conducted in which WNP SSTa are restored to the model climatology. By comparing the perturbed experiment to the control, we are able to clearly characterize ENSO’s response to WNP SST variability. We find that the WNP is predominantly linked to eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. Without SST variability in the WNP, central Pacific (CP) ENSO events are more likely to develop. This variation in ENSO flavor is controlled by how the WNP projects onto wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, which in turn impacts the discharge and recharge of ocean heat during the ENSO cycle. Specifically, the removal of SSTa in the WNP weakens the buildup of ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific, which then hinders the development of EP-type events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX)

The NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) is a series of airborne campaigns focused on understanding physical processes in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. ATTREX is using the high-altitude, long-duration NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Air System to make in situ and remote-sensing measurements spanning the Pacific. A particular ATTREX emphasis is to better understand the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold tropical tropopause region. The ATTREX payload contains 12 in situ and remote sensing instruments that measure water vapor, clouds, multiple gaseous tracers (CO, CO2, CH4, NMHC, SF6, CFCs, N2O), reactive chemical compounds (O3, BrO, NO2), meteorological parameters, and radiative fluxes.ATTREX flight series have been conducted in the fall of 2011 from Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) in California, in the winter of 2013 from AFRC, and in the winterspring of 2014 from Guam. The first two flight series provided extensive sampling of the central and eastern Pacific, whereas the last flight series permitted sampling in the western Pacific. The sampling strategy has primarily involved repeated ascents and descents through the depth of the TTL (about 13-19 km). Over 100 TTL profiles were obtained on each flight series. The ATTREX dataset includes TTL water vapor measurements with unprecedented accuracy, ice crystal size distributions and habits. The cloud and water measurements provide unique information about TTL cloud formation, the persistence of supersaturation with respect to ice, and dehydration. The plethora of tracers measured on the Global Hawk flights are providing unique information about TTL transport pathways and time scales. The meteorological measurements are revealing dynamical phenomena controlling the TTL thermal structure, and the radiation measurements are providing information about heating rates associated with TTL clouds and water vapor.This presentation will provide an overview of the ATTREX flights, examples of measurements from the flights, and plans for modelinganalysis of the ATTREX dataset.

Jensen, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX)

The NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) is a series of airborne campaigns focused on understanding physical processes in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. ATTREX is using the high-altitude, long-duration NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Air System to make in situ and remote-sensing measurements spanning the Pacific. A particular ATTREX emphasis is to better understand the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold tropical tropopause region. The ATTREX payload contains 12 in situ and remote sensing instruments that measure water vapor, clouds, multiple gaseous tracers (CO, CO2, CH4, NMHC, SF6, CFCs, N2O), reactive chemical compounds (O3, BrO, NO2), meteorological parameters, and radiative fluxes. ATTREX flight series have been conducted in the fall of 2011 from Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) in California, in the winter of 2013 from AFRC, and in the winter/spring of 2014 from Guam. The first two flight series provided extensive sampling of the central and eastern Pacific, whereas the last flight series permitted sampling in the western Pacific. The sampling strategy has primarily involved repeated ascents and descents through the depth of the TTL (about 13-19 km). Over 100 TTL profiles were obtained on each flight series. The ATTREX dataset includes TTL water vapor measurements with unprecedented accuracy, ice crystal size distributions and habits. The cloud and water measurements provide unique information about TTL cloud formation, the persistence of super-saturation with respect to ice, and dehydration. The plethora of tracers measured on the Global Hawk flights are providing unique information about TTL transport pathways and time scales. The meteorological measurements are revealing dynamical phenomena controlling the TTL thermal structure, and the radiation measurements are providing information about heating rates associated with TTL clouds and water vapor. This presentation will provide an overview of the ATTREX flights, examples of measurements from the flights, and plans for modeling/analysis of the ATTREX dataset.

ATTREX↗

NASA NTRS2014

Overview of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EX

The NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) is a series of airborne campaigns focused on understanding physical processes in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. ATTREX is using the high-altitude, long-duration NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Air System to make in situ and remote-sensing measurements spanning the Pacific. A particular ATIREX emphasis is to better understand the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold tropical tropopause region. The ATTREX payload contains 12 in situ and remote sensing instruments that measure water vapor, clouds, multiple gaseous tracers (CO, CO2, CH4, NMHC, SF6, CFCs, N2O), reactive chemical compounds (O3, BrO, NO2), meteorological parameters, and radiative fluxes. ATTREX flight series have been conducted in the fall of 2011 from Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) in California, in the winter of 2013 from AFRC, and in the winter/spring of 2014 from Guam. The first two f light series provided extensive sampling of the central and eastern Pacific, whereas the last flight series permitted sampling in the western Pacific. The sampling strategy has primarily involved repeated ascents and descents through the depth of the TTL (about 13-19 km). Over 100 TTL profiles were obtained on each flight series. The ATTREX dataset includes TTL water vapor measurements with unprecedented accuracy, ice crystal size distributions and habits. The cloud and water measurements provide unique information about TTL cloud formation, the persistence of supersaturation with respect to ice, and dehydration. The plethora of tracers measured on the Global Hawk flights are providing unique information about TTL transport pathways and time scales. The meteorological measurements are revealing dynamical phenomena controlling the TTL thermal structure, and the radiation measurements are providing information about heating rates associated with TTL clouds and water vapor. This presentation will provide an overview of the ATTREX flights, examples of measurements from the flights, and plans for modeling/analysis of the ATTREX dataset.

Airborne↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRS2003

Large-scale Distribution of CH4 in the Western North Pacific: Sources and Transport from the Asian Continent

Methane (CH4) mixing ratios in the northern Pacific Basin were sampled from two aircraft during the TRACE-P mission (Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific) from late February through early April 2001 using a tunable diode laser system. Described in more detail by Jacob et al., the mission was designed to characterize Asian outflow to the Pacific, determine its chemical evolution, and assess changes to the atmosphere resulting from the rapid industrialization and increased energy usage on the Asian continent. The high-resolution, high-precision data set of roughly 13,800 CH4 measurements ranged between 1602 ppbv in stratospherically influenced air and 2149 ppbv in highly polluted air. Overall, CH4 mixing ratios were highly correlated with a variety of other trace gases characteristic of a mix of anthropogenic industrial and combustion sources and were strikingly correlated with ethane (C2H6) in particular. Averages with latitude in the near-surface (0-2 km) show that CH4 was elevated well above background levels north of 15 deg N close to the Asian continent. In the central and eastern Pacific, levels of CH4 were lower as continental inputs were mixed horizontally and vertically during transport. Overall, the correlation between CH4 and other hydrocarbons such as ethane (C2H6), ethyne (C2H2), and propane (C3H8) as well as the urban/industrial tracer perchloroethene (C2Cl4), suggests that for CH4 colocated sources such as landfills, wastewater treatment, and fossil fuel use associated with urban areas dominate regional inputs at this time. Comparisons between measurements made during TRACE-P and those of PEM-West B, flown during roughly the same time of year and under a similar meteorological setting 7 years earlier, suggest that although the TRACE-P CH4 observations are higher, the changes are not significantly greater than the increases seen in background air over this time interval.

Bartlett, Karen B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The wet tropospheric range correction - Product intercomparisons and the simulated effect for tropical Pacific altimeter retrievals

Four data sets used to correct satellite altimetry for the effects of tropospheric water vapor over the tropical Pacific Ocean are evaluated statistically, with a focus on the period 1979-1983. Satellite altimeter measurements are simulated by degrading model sea-level solutions with selected water-vapor data, and seasonal and interannual variations are investigated. The results are presented in extensive contour maps and characterized in detail. The standard deviation between two satellite-based data sets (Nimbus-7 SMMR and TOVS) was found to be 2-4 cm, while both the rms difference between seasonal cycles of the two sets and the difference between the mean fields were 1-2 cm. Larger differences (4-8 cm) were found between these data sets and those based on operational analyses (ECMWF and Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center). The maximum interannual anomaly in the water-vapor correction was 12 cm, for the eastern Pacific at the peak of the 1982-1983 ENSO event.

Zimbelman, Darrell F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño-and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

climate models↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Extratropical Pathway for the Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract This study investigates the combined impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and extratropical anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) on subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their physical connections. Our results show that during MJO phases 2–3 (enhanced Indian Ocean convection) and 6–7 (enhanced tropical Pacific convection), there are significant changes in basinwide TC activity. The MJO and AWB collaborate to suppress basinwide TC activity during phases 6–7 but not during phases 2–3. During phases 6–7, when AWB occurs, various TC metrics including hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and rapid intensification probability decrease by ∼50%–80%. Simultaneously, large-scale environmental variables, like vertical wind shear, precipitable water, and sea surface temperatures become extremely unfavorable for TC formation and intensification, compared to periods characterized by suppressed AWB activity during the same MJO phases. Further investigation reveals that AWB events during phases 6–7 occur in concert with the development of a stronger anticyclone in the lower troposphere, which transports more dry, stable extratropical air equatorward, and drives enhanced tropical SST cooling. As a result, individual AWB events in phases 6–7 can disturb the development of surrounding TCs to a greater extent than their phases 2–3 counterparts. The influence of the MJO on AWB over the western subtropical Atlantic can be attributed to the modulation of the convectively forced Rossby wave source over the tropical eastern Pacific. A significant number of Rossby waves initiating from this region during phases 5–6 propagate into the subtropical North Atlantic, preceding the occurrence of AWB events in phases 6–7.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗

NASA NTRS1994

Geosat-derived sea level and surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-1989 El Nino and La Nina

Equatorial wave dynamics are essential in most oceanic models for reproducing aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Observational evidence of first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and first symmetric meridional Rossby waves is found in Geosat-derived sea level anomalies (SLA) and surface zonal current anomalies (ZCA) in the equatorial Pacific ocean during the 1986-1987 El Nino and the ensuing 1988-1989 La Nina. This was made possible after extensive quality control and specific processing of the recently improved Geosat geophysical data records pertaining to the 17-day Exact Repeat Mission. In particular, the processing was made so that the Geosat-derived ZCA best fit near-surface zonal currents from three equatorial moorings at 165 deg E, 140 deg W, and 110 deg W. The Geosat-derived SLA and ZCA are decomposed into first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and gravest Rossby modes. The emphasis is then put on the chronology of the ZCA at the equator where the currents are the most energetic and where Kelvin and first symmetric Rossby waves explain most of the variance in ZCA, in similar proportion. The 1986-1987 El Nino is mostly characterized by a strong downwelling Kelvin wave in December 1986, a series of downwelling Kelvin waves in March-October 1987, and a strong upwelling Rossby wave in March-September 1987. These waves are consistent with wind forcing, and all give rise to notable eastward ZCA for almost an entire year. During El Nino-La Nina transition period there is the occurrence of two downwelling Rossby waves originating from the eastern Pacific at times of favorable wind forcing. These Rossby waves switch the basin-wide ZCA from eastward to westward, terminating the warm event. Then, the 1988-1989 La Nina shows the generation of a series of upwelling Kelvin waves which are clearly identified in March/April and September/October 1988. These upwelling Kelvin waves are apparently related to the enhencement of the trade wind in the western half of the basin. These waves maintain the basin-wide westward ZCA for more than a year, although the ZCA is slightly reduced ba front of upwelling Rossby waves in phase with the normal seasonal cycle. The Kelvin wave forcing and sign of kelvin wave contribution versus Rossby wave contribution to ZCA in the western Pacific are discussed, and we conclude that neither pleads in favor of the delayed action oscillator mechanism.

Delcroix, Thierry↗

NASA NTRS1997

Near-Surface Phytoplankton Pigment from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner in the Subantarctic Region Southeast of New Zealand

Primarily based on satellite images, the phytoplankton concentration southeast (down- stream) of New Zealand in the High Nitrate - Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) Subantarctic water between the Subtropical Convergence (STC) and the Polar Front (PF) is believed to be higher than in the remainder of the Pacific Sector. Iron enrichment is assumed to be the reason, To study the question, near-surface phytoplankton pigment estimates from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner for up to 7 yr were reprocessed with particular attention to interference by clouds. Monthly mean images were created for the U,S. JGOFS Box along 170 deg W and means for individual dates calculated for 7 large areas between 170 deg E and 160 deg W, 45 deg and 58 deg S, well offshore of New Zealand and principally between and away from the STC and PF. The areal means are about as low as in other HNLC regions (most values between 0.1 and 0.4 or 0.5 mg/ sq m, with very few winter images; median of seasonal means, 0.26 mg/sq m) except at times near the STC, The higher means tend to occur in late summer and autumn, However, contrary to expectations, neither the PF nor the environs of the Subantarctic Front are distinguished by a zone of increased pigment. Also, of 24 spring-summer images of oceanic islands in mostly pigment-poor water, 17 yielded no recognizable elevated pigment; islands were 5 times surrounded by approximately doubled concentrations (ca 100 km in diameter), and 2 cases may have been associated with an extensive bloom. Inspection of offshore images showed concentrations of 1 greater than or equal to(up to 5) mg/sq m in rare patches of 65 to 200 km size on approximately one-tenth of the dates; such patches were not seen in Sub-antarctic waters of the eastern Pacific Sector. A case is made for Australian airborne iron supply being the cause that, presumably, would enhance large-celled phytoplankton. Since, however, the putative iron supply from the seabed around the oceanic islands or the near-by Campbell Plateau normally does not lead to phytoplankton increase, patches of neritic mesozooplankton advected from the shelves might be another mechanism that generates blooms of small-cetled phytoplankton, but there are no data. These alternatives can easily be field-tested from concentration and size composition of the phytoplankton.

Banse, Karl↗

DOE OSTI2023

Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photochemical and Cloud and Aerosol Aqueous Contributions to Regionally-Emitted Shipping and Biogenic Non-Sea-Salt Sulfate Aerosol in Coastal California

Aerosol nonsea-salt sulfate (NSS sulfate) forms in the atmosphere by secondary reactions of emissions from marine phytoplankton and shipping, with gas-phase as well as cloud and aerosol aqueous reactions controlling production. Twelve months of Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier in La Jolla, California, showed the highest NSS sulfate mass concentrations occurred for the northwesterly back-trajectories over 64% of the year, with an average of 0.90 μg/m 3 that contributed 76% of annual NSS sulfate concentration. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and a refractory black carbon tracer method attributed 76–80% of the regionally emitted sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) sources of submicron NSS sulfate to marine biogenic emissions and 20–24% to shipping emissions. MLR for oxidation processes explained 21% of the variability with Downwelling Shortwave Radiation (DSW) driving photochemical reactions to account for 34% of annual regional sulfate production, Upwind Cloud Vertical Fraction (UCVF) controlling cloud-associated oxidation to account for 29%, and relative humidity (RH) describing aerosol-phase oxidation to account for 36%. NSS sulfate was correlated moderately to UCVF during April-June and August but to RH in October-January. These findings show the apportionment of SO 2 emissions to biogenic and shipping sources and provide observational constraints for the mechanisms for sulfate production from SO 2 in the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nearby Sites Show Similar Upwind Sources and Differing Semivolatile Concentrations in Coastal Aerosol Particles

The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) characterized aerosol composition using measurements at two sites within 3 km (Scripps Pier and Mt. Soledad) from 15 February 2023 to 14 February 2024. Comparing the two sites shows the strong influence of upwind sources that results in similar monthly compositions at both sites. The seasonal changes in chemical mass concentrations were largely driven by the upwind source regions, with coastal northwesterly back-trajectories occurring 63−65% of the year and bringing submicrometer mass concentrations that were lower than the EPCAPE average for all trajectories at each site. In contrast, refractory black carbon (rBC) and nonrefractory (NR)-organics and nitrate mass concentrations exceeded EPCAPE average concentrations for back-trajectories from urban areas such as Los Angeles-Long Beach. For hourly measurements, NR-organics and non-sea-salt (NSS)-sulfate mass concentrations at Mt. Soledad were correlated strongly (r = 0.73−0.82) to those measured at Scripps Pier, but NR-nitrate was correlated only moderately (r = 0.63). The explanation for the lower correlation of NR-nitrate is both emissions between the sites and semivolatility, with semivolatility accounting for site-to-site changes in daily averages of +0.01 μg m −3 per percentage site-to-site difference in relative humidity and −0.07 μg m −3 per degree Celsius site-to-site difference in temperature. On average, comparing Scripps Pier to Mt. Soledad, NR-nitrate was higher by 29% because of relative humidity and lower by −26% because of temperature. NR-nitrate and rBC mass concentrations at Scripps Pier for nighttime were 13−15% higher than those for daytime because land breezes brought higher inland concentrations. Concentrations of rBC were 52% higher at Mt. Soledad than those measured at Scripps Pier, accompanied by increases in tracers for brake wear because of traffic on the steep roads within 10 m of that site. The implications are that these nearby sites had comparable monthly concentrations of measured components due to their similar backtrajectories, but hourly and daily concentration differences supported quantification of the meteorological effects from relative humidity and temperature on semivolatile NR-nitrate as well as minor differences from land−sea breezes and local emissions.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗