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DOE OSTI2026

Flash flourishing of Northern Hemisphere vegetation and its drivers

Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO 2 , while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing University of Information S↗

NASA NTRS1991

Advanced life support study

Summary reports on each of the eight tasks undertaken by this contract are given. Discussed here is an evaluation of a Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS), including modeling and analysis of Physical/Chemical Closed Loop Life Support (P/C CLLS); the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) evolution - Intermodule Ventilation study; advanced technologies interface requirements relative to ECLSS; an ECLSS resupply analysis; the ECLSS module addition relocation systems engineering analysis; an ECLSS cost/benefit analysis to identify rack-level interface requirements of the alternate technologies evaluated in the ventilation study, with a comparison of these with the rack level interface requirements for the baseline technologies; advanced instrumentation - technology database enhancement; and a clean room survey and assessment of various ECLSS evaluation options for different growth scenarios.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1991

Impact of diet on the design of waste processors in CELSS

The preliminary results of a design analysis for a waste processor which employs existing technologies and takes into account the constraints of human diet are presented. The impact of diet is determined by using a model and an algorithm developed for the control and management of diet in a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). A material and energy balance model for thermal oxidation of waste is developed which is consistent with both physical/chemical methods of incineration and supercritical water oxidation. The two models yield quantitative analysis of the diet and waste streams and the specific design parameters for waste processors, respectively. The results demonstrate that existing technologies can meet the demands of waste processing, but the choice and design of the processors or processing methods will be sensitive to the constraints of diet. The numerical examples are chosen to display the nature and extent of the gap in the available experiment information about CELSS requirements.

Waleh, Ahmad↗

NASA NTRS1994

Overview of the Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research Project

The Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) project is a study of ecosystem functions in coniferous forests using the methods of computer modeling, experimental and theoretical remote sensing, and ecological field and laboratory techniques. The study is focused on predicting the major fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water, and the factors that dynamically regulate them. The OTTER project was conceived to test two major questions: (1) Can a generalized ecosystem simulation model, designed to use mainly parameters available from remote sensing, predict the functioning of forests across an environmentally variable region? and (2) To what extent can the variables required by this model be derived from remotely sensed data? The scientific objectives and scope of the project demanded that a coordinated effort be made to link ground measurements with remote sensing and modeling requirements. OTTER was selected as a focus for a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-sponsored Multi-sensor Aircraft Campaign (MAC; combining NASA aircraft and sensors with those of others) on the basis of experience gained in past ecosystem studies and remote-sensing projects, and the importance of the OTTER objectives to NASA's long-range science goals and plans. Having several independent approaches available, both on the ground and from various remote-sensing platforms, proved valuable in estimating and validating many of the critical variables. This experience and cross comparison should help simplify future studies of a similar nature. Edited data sets from the OTTER project are now available to the scientific community on optical disks or via on-line data banks at NASA (Washington, D.C., USA) and Oregon State University (Corvallis, Oregon, USA).

Peterson, David L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Arctic (Wild) Fires

Wildland fires in the boreal and Arctic are increasing in frequency and severity, with extreme fire seasons documented across the Pan-Arctic and boreal in five of the last seven years – including an early start to extreme fires in 2023.Human-caused and wildland fires above 60°N were larger sources of black carbon and methane than current modeled estimates of anthropogenic sectors like energy extraction and transportation. Further, these large boreal and Arctic fires have the potential to release large amounts of carbon dioxide and subsequent methane emissions from degraded permafrost and peat fires, as well as negatively impacting air quality thousands of miles south. By end of this century, current extreme fire years in the Arctic will likely be a normal fire year for much of Greenland, North America, Northern Europe, and Eurasia. As a new horizon in global wildland fire science, novel scientific pathways must be undertaken to improve our understanding and management of wildfires in the High Northern Latitudes – including understanding how NASA and U.S. researchers can enhance collaboration and develop near-real-time fire and smoke monitoring and modeling between North American and European ecology, fire, and climate scientists and stakeholders. Issues of inclusion, diversity, and equity are inherent to understanding fire ecology, impacts, and management in the Arctic and boreal, including centering and deferring to Indigenous and local communities when constructing best management practices.

Future↗

NASA NTRS2023

A GeoNEX-Based High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Product of Land Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation and Photosynthetically Active Radiation

Surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play critical roles in the Earth’s surface processes. As the main inputs of various ecological, hydrological, carbon, and solar photovoltaic models, increasing requirements for high-spatiotemporal-resolution DSR and PAR es- timation with high accuracy have been observed in recent years. However, few existing products satisfy all of these requirements. This study employed a well-established physical-based lookup table (LUT) approach to the GeoNEX gridded top-of-atmosphere bidirectional reflectance factor data acquired by the Advanced Hi- mawari Imager (AHI) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) sensors. It produced a data product of DSR and PAR over both AHI and ABI coverage at an hourly temporal step with a 1 km spatial resolution. GeoNEX DSR data were validated over 63 stations, and GeoNEX PAR data were validated over 27 stations. The vali- dation showed that the new GeoNEX DSR and PAR products have accuracy higher than other existing prod- ucts, with root mean square error (RMSE) of hourly GeoNEX DSR achieving 74.3Wm−2 (18.0%), daily DSR estimation achieving 18.0 W m−2 (9.2 %), hourly GeoNEX PAR achieving 34.9 W m−2 (19.6 %), and daily PAR achieving 9.5 W m−2 (10.5 %). The study also demonstrated the application of the high-spatiotemporal- resolution GeoNEX DSR product in investigating the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of surface solar radiation. The data product can be freely accessed through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division GeoNEX data portal: https://data.nas.nasa.gov/geonex/geonexdata/GOES16/GEONEX-L2/DSR-PAR/ (last ac- cess: 12 March 2023) and https://data.nas.nasa.gov/geonex/geonexdata/HIMAWARI8/GEONEX-L2/DSR-PAR/ (last access: 12 March 2023) (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7023863; Wang and Li, 2022).

Surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR)↗

NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Water Limitation and Competition on Tree Carbon Allocation in an Earth System Modeling Framework

Earth system models (ESMs) have a limited capacity to represent plant functional diversity and shifts in trait distributions. Approaches to improving the representation of this complexity in ESMs include (i) optimality-based approaches that predict trait–environment responses and (ii) explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly. These approaches are expected to converge only when optimality-based approaches identify competitively dominant strategies, which often differ from strategies that maximize ecosystem functioning or fitness components in monoculture. We used two models, LM3-PPA (a vegetation demographic model designed as an ESM component) and BiomeE (a computationally efficient analog for LM3-PPA), to explore how water limitation affects carbon allocation strategies of canopy trees. We compared competitive allocation strategies and those that maximize biomass or productivity in monoculture. We did not explicitly model coexistence or community assembly. Rather, we used model experiments to identify competitive and maximizing strategies in a two-dimensional trait space under different precipitation and mortality scenarios. At 10 eastern US locations, we simulated historical, wet and dry climate scenarios, novel drought and three different mortality scenarios (low, medium or high sensitivity to water deficit). For each site and scenario, we identified the competitive strategy and three maximizing strategies (maximum biomass, productivity or drought-tolerance). Root: leaf ratios tended to increase and leaf area tended to decrease with increasing water stress (increasing water limitation and its effects on mortality). However, relative to maximizing strategies, competitive strategies shifted towards greater allocation to roots and leaves with increasing water stress. Competitive overinvestments (greater allocation to roots and leaves by competitive strategies compared with maximizing strategies) were robust across different modelling contexts, including vegetation parameter sets (Acer vs. Populus), models (LM3-PPA vs. BiomeE) and uncalibrated vs. calibrated BiomeE versions. Synthesis: The theoretical prediction that competitive and maximizing allocation strategies differ under water limitation is confirmed for a demographic model designed as an ESM component. Optimality-based trait predictions can simplify representing trait diversity in ESMs but do not always correspond to competitive outcomes. Explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly in ESMs is challenging but is likely the most general approach to representing trait diversity.

vegetation demographic model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Accounting for Herbaceous Communities in Process-Based Models Will Advance Our Understanding of “Grassy” Ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Flexibility and Environmental Tradeoffs Analysis

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

Columbia River↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Physics of Life: A Model for Non-Newtonian Properties of Living Systems

This innovation proposes the reconciliation of the evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics via the introduction of the First Principle for modeling behavior of living systems. The structure of the model is quantum-inspired: it acquires the topology of the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced with the information potential. As a result, the model captures the most fundamental property of life: the progressive evolution; i.e. the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The mathematical structure of the model can be obtained from the Newtonian equations of motion (representing the motor dynamics) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equation (representing the mental dynamics) via information forces. All these specific non-Newtonian properties equip the model with the levels of complexity that matches the complexity of life, and that makes the model applicable for description of behaviors of ecological, social, and economical systems. Rather than addressing the six aspects of life (organization, metabolism, growth, adaptation, response to stimuli, and reproduction), this work focuses only on biosignature ; i.e. the mechanical invariants of life, and in particular, the geometry and kinematics of behavior of living things. Living things obey the First Principles of Newtonian mechanics. One main objective of this model is to extend the First Principles of classical physics to include phenomenological behavior on living systems; to develop a new mathematical formalism within the framework of classical dynamics that would allow one to capture the specific properties of natural or artificial living systems such as formation of the collective mind based upon abstract images of the selves and non-selves; exploitation of this collective mind for communications and predictions of future expected characteristics of evolution; and for making decisions and implementing the corresponding corrections if the expected scenario is different from the originally planned one. This approach postulates that even a primitive living species possesses additional, non-Newtonian properties that are not included in the laws of Newtonian or statistical mechanics. These properties follow from a privileged ability of living systems to possess a self-image (a concept introduced in psychology) and to interact with it. The proposed mathematical system is based on the coupling of the classical dynamical system representing the motor dynamics with the corresponding Liouville equation describing the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of the probability density and representing the mental dynamics. The coupling is implemented by the information-based supervising forces that can be associated with self-awareness. These forces fundamentally change the pattern of the probability evolution, and therefore, lead to a major departure of the behavior of living systems from the patterns of both Newtonian and statistical mechanics. This innovation is meant to capture the signature of life based only on observable behavior, not on any biochemistry. This will not prevent the use of this model for developing artificial living systems, as well as for studying some general properties of behavior of natural, living systems.

Zak, Michail↗

NASA NTRS2000

Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

From an ecological perspective, the search for life on distant planets begins from several key assumptions. The first of these is that, viewed from a remote location in space, the signature of life on a distant planet will be the result of net gas exchange of organisms with their environment. On the basis of extensive biogeochemical measurements and biogenic trace gas fluxes in modem Earth environments, it is probable that certain groups of organisms both produce and consume the same trace gas(es) within a single bioprofile of Solid (porous) substrate or surface water. The net gas exchange rate with the atmosphere measured at the living surface is frequently the result of competing metabolic reactions, which may carried out by different functional groups of organisms located at dissimilar 'climatic' or chemical microsites within the same bioprofile. Biogenic gases produced at one (deep) level of a bioprofile may be consumed by another functional group of organisms located closer to the level of surface exchange with the atmosphere. A second key assumption is that the net biogenic fluxes of atmospheric gases on Earth can be used to infer relative abundance and functional composition of the major organisms on a distant planet. Examples of this principle include the presence of methanogenic microorganisms abundant today in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, which are major source of atmospheric methane and its seasonal variability in Earth's atmosphere. A third assumption is that scaling up biogenic gas fluxes from a single biological community to the planetary level requires flux measurements at the whole ecosystem level. This implies that measurements of biogenic gas exchange with the global atmosphere cannot be easily inferred from measurements of gas production rates of single organisms, which may have been isolated in some manner from the setting of their native ecosystem. Hence, the unit of biological organization used in modern Earth Science for scaling up to biosphere effects on atmospheric composition is the ecosystem level. These assumptions are the foundation for developing modern emission budgets for biogenic gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, isoprene, nitrous and nitric oxide, and ammonia. Such emission budgets commonly include information on seasonal flux patterns, typical diurnal profiles, and spatial resolution of at least one degree latitude/longitude for the globe. On the basis of these budgets, it is possible to compute 'base emission rates' for the major biogenic trace gases from both terrestrial and ocean sources, which may be useful benchmarks for defining the gas production rates of organisms, especially those from early Earth history, which are required to generate a detectable signal on a global atmosphere. This type of analysis is also the starting point for evaluation of the 'biological processes to global gas budget' extrapolation procedure described above for early Earth ecosystems.

Christopher, Potter S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microbial species and intraspecies units exist and are maintained by ecological cohesiveness coupled to high homologous recombination

Abstract Recent genomic analyses have revealed that microbial communities are predominantly composed of persistent, sequence-discrete species and intraspecies units (genomovars), but the mechanisms that create and maintain these units remain unclear. By analyzing closely-related isolate genomes from the same or related samples and identifying recent recombination events using a novel bioinformatics methodology, we show that high ecological cohesiveness coupled to frequent-enough and unbiased (i.e., not selection-driven) horizontal gene flow, mediated by homologous recombination, often underlie these diversity patterns. Ecological cohesiveness was inferred based on greater similarity in temporal abundance patterns of genomes of the same vs. different units, and recombination was shown to affect all sizable segments of the genome (i.e., be genome-wide) and have two times or greater impact on sequence evolution than point mutations. These results were observed in bothSalinibacter ruber, an environmental halophilic organism, andEscherichia coli, the model gut-associated organism and an opportunistic pathogen, indicating that they may be more broadly applicable to the microbial world. Therefore, our results represent a departure compared to previous models of microbial speciation that invoke either ecology or recombination, but not necessarily their synergistic effect, and answer an important question for microbiology: what a species and a subspecies are.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Numerical Modeling Framework for Flocculation and Cohesive Sediment Transport in the Wave Bottom Boundary Layer

Flocculation, a critical process in coastal and estuarine systems, plays a significant role in sediment transport, nutrient cycling, and ecological health. This study develops a cohesive sediment transport modeling framework tailored to the wave bottom boundary layer under dilute and equilibrium conditions, explicitly incorporating flocculation effects via a Population Balance Equation (PBE). Using Direct Numerical Simulation, six baseline cases, each with a distinct sediment concentration profile resulting from a constant settling velocity and critical erosion shear stress, are generated to drive the PBE flocculation model for given floc yield strength and stickiness. Results reveal that flocculation significantly influences sediment concentration profiles promoting three distinct stages, well‐mixed, transition to lutocline, and well‐developed lutocline. At low concentrations with well‐mixed profiles, cohesive floc properties are less significant, and turbulence is a main flocculation driver. In contrast, as concentration increases, cohesive floc properties become crucial, facilitating lutocline formation. Here, the analysis also highlights limitations of depth‐averaged settling velocity as a parameterization. It is suitable for well‐mixed and transitional profiles but fails in well‐developed lutoclines, where empirical formulations that explicitly incorporate turbulent shear rate and sediment concentration better capture variability. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating flocculation effects into sediment transport models to enhance predictions of sediment dynamics in wave bottom boundary layers.

Penaloza‐Giraldo, Jorge A. [Oak Ridge National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Global Spectra-Trait Initiative: A database of paired leaf spectroscopy and functional traits associated with leaf photosynthetic capacity

Accurate assessment of leaf functional traits is crucial for a diverse range of applications from crop phenotyping to parameterizing global climate models. Leaf reflectance spectroscopy offers a promising avenue to advance ecological and agricultural research by complementing traditional, time-consuming gas exchange measurements. However, the development of robust hyperspectral models for predicting leaf photosynthetic capacity and associated traits from reflectance data has been hindered by limited data availability across species and environments. Here we introduce the Global Spectra-Trait Initiative (GSTI), a collaborative repository of paired leaf hyperspectral and gas exchange measurements from diverse ecosystems. The GSTI repository currently encompasses over 7500 observations from 397 species and 41 sites gathered from 36 published and unpublished studies, thereby offering a key resource for developing and validating hyperspectral models of leaf photosynthetic capacity. The GSTI database is developed on GitHub (https://github.com/plantphys/gsti, last access: 4 January 2026) and published to ESS-DIVE https://doi.org/10.15485/2530733, Lamour et al., 2025). It includes gas exchange data, derived photosynthetic parameters, and key leaf traits often associated with traditional gas exchange measurements such as leaf mass per area and leaf elemental composition. By providing a standardized repository for data sharing and analysis, we present a critical step towards creating hyperspectral models for predicting photosynthetic traits and associated leaf traits for terrestrial plants.

Lamour, Julien [Université of Toulouse (France); U↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Game-Theoretic Modeling of Vegetation Composition, Structure, and Dynamics: Physical Constraints, Fundamental Processes, and Emergent Properties

Vegetation structural and compositional dynamics emerge from plant physiological and demographic processes, individual-based competition, vegetation-soil feedbacks, and environmental variations and disturbance events. Predicting long-term changes in vegetation requires scaling plant individual behavior to large scale ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we summarize our studies in the modeling of vegetation demographic processes, competitively dominant plant traits, plant hydraulic processes, and stochastic disturbance effects on ecosystems, and illustrate the roles of the underlying ecological processes and eco-evolutionary optimization in vegetation modeling. With the case studies of evolutionarily stable strategy of allocation, leaf traits, and plant hydraulic processes, we show how the ecosystem processes and vegetation dynamics are determined by the individual-based plant competition and variations of soil and climate conditions. The predictions of ecosystem carbon dynamics can be greatly different with those from the traditional “single-tree” models. We also discuss the tradeoffs of plant traits and evolutionarily optimal strategies in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in an Earth system model.

vegetation models↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impact of Pacific Ocean Heatwaves on Phytoplankton Community Composition

Since 2013, marine heatwaves have become recurrent throughout the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean and are expected to increase in intensity relative to historic norms. Among the ecological ramifications associated with these high temperature anomalies are increased mortality of higher trophic organisms such as marine mammals and seabirds, which are likely triggered by changes in the composition of phytoplankton, the base of the marine trophic food web. Here, we assimilated satellite ocean color data into an ocean biogeochemical model to describe changes in the abundance of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) during the last decade's (2010s) warm anomalies in the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean. We find important changes associated with the "Blob" warm anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska, where reduced silica supply led to a switch in community composition from diatoms to dinoagellates, resulting in an increase in surface ocean chlorophyll during the Summer-Fall of 2014. A more dramatic change was observed in the equatorial Pacific, where the extreme warm conditions of the 2016 El Niño resulted in a major decline of about 40 % in surface chlorophyll, which was associated with a nearly total collapse in diatoms.

Pacific Ocean↗