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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Probabilistic Marching Cubes by Deep Learning for Time-Varying Scalar Ensembles

Visualizing the uncertainty of ensemble simulations is challenging due to the large size and multivariate and temporal features of en-semble data sets. One popular approach to studying the uncertainty of ensembles is analyzing the positional uncertainty of the level sets. Probabilistic marching cubes is a technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of multivariate Gaussian noise distributions for positional uncertainty visualization of level sets. However, the technique suffers from high computational time, making interactive visualization and analysis impossible to achieve. This paper introduces a deep-learning-based approach to learning the level-set uncertainty for two-dimensional ensemble data with a multivariate Gaussian noise assumption. We train the model using the first few time steps from time-varying ensemble data in our workflow. We demonstrate that our trained model accurately infers uncertainty in level sets for new time steps and is up to 170X faster than that of the original probabilistic model with serial computation and 10X faster than that of the original parallel computation.

Han, Mengjiao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convection-Permitting Ensembles of an Isolated Mountain Thunderstorm during RELAMPAGO/CACTI

Abstract The north–south-oriented Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) ridge in central Argentina is noted for initiating thunderstorms that may grow into intense mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It also initiates more isolated, shorter-lived cells under weaker synoptic forcing. These cells are less impactful than MCSs but may be difficult to predict in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to their strong sensitivities to subgrid and partially resolved processes. To study the mechanisms and predictability of such cells, convection-permitting ensemble simulations were conducted of an isolated, diurnally forced SDC thunderstorm during Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI)/Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO). The rich observational data facilitated detailed ensemble verification, where dry biases in the surface energy balance and soil moisture were identified. These biases promoted rapid removal of convective inhibition and an early onset of precipitating cells over the SDC that were shallower and weaker than the observed cell. Correction, and then overcorrection, of the soil moisture bias in two successive ensembles was required to rectify the surface energy balance and improve the representation of the SDC cell. Nevertheless, substantial ensemble variability in convective precipitation was found, with some members producing more widespread convection than observed and others producing no deep convection at all. This variability was largely explained by a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, dominated by a positive sensitivity of convective precipitation to preconvective moist instability over the ridge. Secondary sensitivities were found to low-level upward mass flux and midlevel cross-barrier winds, the latter of which caused gravity waves with elevated downdrafts that tended to suppress incipient clouds.

Lopez, Andres [Department of Atmospheric and Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Emulation of Spatial Deposition from a Multi-Physics Ensemble of Weather and Atmospheric Transport Models

In the event of an accidental or intentional hazardous material release in the atmosphere, researchers often run physics-based atmospheric transport and dispersion models to predict the extent and variation of the contaminant spread. These predictions are imperfect due to propagated uncertainty from atmospheric model physics (or parameterizations) and weather data initial conditions. Ensembles of simulations can be used to estimate uncertainty, but running large ensembles is often very time consuming and resource intensive, even using large supercomputers. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-based method which can be used to quickly emulate spatial deposition patterns from a multi-physics ensemble of dispersion simulations. We use a hybrid linear and logistic regression method that can predict deposition in more than 100,000 grid cells with as few as fifty training examples. Logistic regression provides probabilistic predictions of the presence or absence of hazardous materials, while linear regression predicts the quantity of hazardous materials. The coefficients of the linear regressions also open avenues of exploration regarding interpretability—the presented model can be used to find which physics schemes are most important over different spatial areas. A single regression prediction is on the order of 10,000 times faster than running a weather and dispersion simulation. However, considering the number of weather and dispersion simulations needed to train the regressions, the speed-up achieved when considering the whole ensemble is about 24 times. Ultimately, this work will allow atmospheric researchers to produce potential contamination scenarios with uncertainty estimates faster than previously possible, aiding public servants and first responders.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Early Fault Detection in Particle Accelerator Power Electronics Using Ensemble Learning

Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators). Following an advanced experimental facility setup that mimics SNS operating conditions, the authors successfully conducted 21 early fault detection experiments, where fault precursors are introduced in the system to a degree enough to cause degradation in the waveform signals, but not enough to reach a real fault. Nine different machine learning techniques based on ensemble trees, convolutional neural networks, support vector machines, and hierarchical voting ensembles are proposed to detect the fault precursors. Although all 9 models have shown a perfect and identical performance during the training and testing phase, the performance of most models has decreased in the next test phase once they got exposed to realworld data from the 21 experiments. The hierarchical voting ensemble, which features multiple layers of diverse models, maintains a distinguished performance in early detection of the fault precursors with 95% success rate (20/21 tests), followed by adaboost and extremely randomized trees with 52% and 48% success rates, respectively. The support vector machine models were the worst with only 24% success rate (5/21 tests). The study concluded that a successful implementation of machine learning in the SNS or particle accelerator power systems would require a major upgrade in the controller and the data acquisition system to facilitate streaming and handling big data for the machine learning models. In addition, this study shows that the best performing models were diverse and based on the ensemble concept to reduce the bias and hyperparameter sensitivity of individual models.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI ensemble for signal detection of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers

We introduce spatiotemporal-graph models that concurrently process data from the twin advanced LIGO detectors and the advanced Virgo detector. We trained these AI classifiers with 2.4 million IMRPhenomXPHM waveforms that describe quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers with component masses m{1,2}∈[3M⊙,50M⊙], and individual spins sz{1,2}∈[−0.9,0.9]; and which include the (ℓ,|m|)={(2,2),(2,1),(3,3),(3,2),(4,4)} modes, and mode mixing effects in the ℓ=3,|m|=2 harmonics. We trained these AI classifiers within 22 hours using distributed training over 96 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer. We then used transfer learning to create AI predictors that estimate the total mass of potential binary black holes identified by all AI classifiers in the ensemble. We used this ensemble, 3 classifiers for signal detection and 2 total mass predictors, to process a year-long test set in which we injected 300,000 signals. This year-long test set was processed within 5.19 minutes using 1024 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer (for AI inference) and 128 CPU nodes in the ThetaKNL supercomputer (for post-processing of noise triggers), housed at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. These studies indicate that our AI ensemble provides state-of-the-art signal detection accuracy, and reports 2 misclassifications for every year of searched data. This is the first AI ensemble designed to search for and find higher order gravitational wave mode signals.

Tian, Minyang↗
DOE OSTI2023

An ensemble of 48 physically perturbed model estimates of the 1/8° terrestrial water budget over the conterminous United States, 1980–2015

Terrestrial water budget (TWB) data over large domains are of high interest for various hydrological applications. Spatiotemporally continuous and physically consistent estimations of TWB rely on land surface models (LSMs). As an augmentation of the operational North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) four-LSM ensemble, this paper describes a dataset simulated from an ensemble of 48 physics configurations of the Noah LSM with multi-physics options (Noah-MP). The 48 Noah-MP physics configurations are selected to give a representative cross-section of commonly used LSMs for parameterizing runoff, atmospheric surface layer turbulence, soil moisture limitation on photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance. The dataset spans from 1980 to 2015 over the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a monthly temporal resolution and a 1/8° spatial resolution. The dataset variables include total evapotranspiration and its constituents (canopy evaporation, soil evaporation, and transpiration), runoff (the surface and subsurface components), as well as terrestrial water storage (snow water equivalent, four-layer soil water content from the surface down to 2 m, and the groundwater storage anomaly). The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7109816. Evaluations carried out in this study and previous investigations show that the ensemble per forms well in reproducing the observed terrestrial water storage, snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff. Noah-MP complements the NLDAS models well, and adding Noah-MP consistently improves the NLDAS es timations of the above variables in most areas of CONUS. Besides, the perturbed-physics ensemble facilitates the identification of model deficiencies. The parameterizations of shallow snow, spatially varying groundwater dynamics, and near-surface atmospheric turbulence should be improved in future model versions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

QSO emission line profiles from Keplerian cloud ensembles

Quasar broad emission line profile calculations are presented for spherically symmetric ensembles of flattened broad-line clouds in elliptical Keplerian orbits. In general, it is found that high eccentricity monoenergetic orbital ensembles tend to provide more acceptable profiles than low eccentricity monoenergetic ensembles. The investigation of elliptical cloud orbits evolving under the influence of Poynting-Robertson drag or drag from an intercloud media shows that acceptable line profiles naturally result from the decay of initially monoenergetic, high eccentricity ensembles independent of the assumed emission anisotropy, provided the drag is not so great as to cause the immediate capture or disruption of the clouds.

Bradley, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ensemble Data Mining Methods

Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes

Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.

enumerators↗
NASA NTRS2008

Ensemble: an Architecture for Mission-Operations Software

Ensemble is the name of an open architecture for, and a methodology for the development of, spacecraft mission operations software. Ensemble is also potentially applicable to the development of non-spacecraft mission-operations- type software. Ensemble capitalizes on the strengths of the open-source Eclipse software and its architecture to address several issues that have arisen repeatedly in the development of mission-operations software: Heretofore, mission-operations application programs have been developed in disparate programming environments and integrated during the final stages of development of missions. The programs have been poorly integrated, and it has been costly to develop, test, and deploy them. Users of each program have been forced to interact with several different graphical user interfaces (GUIs). Also, the strategy typically used in integrating the programs has yielded serial chains of operational software tools of such a nature that during use of a given tool, it has not been possible to gain access to the capabilities afforded by other tools. In contrast, the Ensemble approach offers a low-risk path towards tighter integration of mission-operations software tools.

Norris, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Ensemble Canon

Ensemble is an open architecture for the development, integration, and deployment of mission operations software. Fundamentally, it is an adaptation of the Eclipse Rich Client Platform (RCP), a widespread, stable, and supported framework for component-based application development. By capitalizing on the maturity and availability of the Eclipse RCP, Ensemble offers a low-risk, politically neutral path towards a tighter integration of operations tools. The Ensemble project is a highly successful, ongoing collaboration among NASA Centers. Since 2004, the Ensemble project has supported the development of mission operations software for NASA's Exploration Systems, Science, and Space Operations Directorates.

applications programs (computers),↗
NASA NTRS2012

Ensemble Averaged Probability Density Function (APDF) for Compressible Turbulent Reacting Flows

In this paper, we present a concept of the averaged probability density function (APDF) for studying compressible turbulent reacting flows. The APDF is defined as an ensemble average of the fine grained probability density function (FG-PDF) with a mass density weighting. It can be used to exactly deduce the mass density weighted, ensemble averaged turbulent mean variables. The transport equation for APDF can be derived in two ways. One is the traditional way that starts from the transport equation of FG-PDF, in which the compressible Navier- Stokes equations are embedded. The resulting transport equation of APDF is then in a traditional form that contains conditional means of all terms from the right hand side of the Navier-Stokes equations except for the chemical reaction term. These conditional means are new unknown quantities that need to be modeled. Another way of deriving the transport equation of APDF is to start directly from the ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting transport equation of APDF derived from this approach appears in a closed form without any need for additional modeling. The methodology of ensemble averaging presented in this paper can be extended to other averaging procedures: for example, the Reynolds time averaging for statistically steady flow and the Reynolds spatial averaging for statistically homogeneous flow. It can also be extended to a time or spatial filtering procedure to construct the filtered density function (FDF) for the large eddy simulation (LES) of compressible turbulent reacting flows.

Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗
NASA NTRS2013

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.

NOAA CPC↗
NASA NTRS2015

Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

Koerner, Stephan↗