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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1983

A multi-item maintenance center inventory model for low-demand reparable items

In many military and commercial contexts, complex equipment undergoes scheduled maintenance overhauls at regular intervals during which all failed components are replaced. Failure to have replacements on hand for all failed parts requires emergency measures at premium cost. When reparable parts are highly reliable and expensive, both holding and shortage costs are high. This model determines the reparable parts inventory for a maintenance center under three alternative criteria: (1) maximizing job-completion rate subject to constraint on total holding costs, (2) minimizing total holding costs plus expected job noncompletion costs, and (3) minimizing total holding costs subject to a required minimum job-completion rate. Exact solutions may be obtained using dynamic programming. Approximate solutions, found easily by marginal analysis, have readily computed bounds on possible error. The solution methods for the three formulations are illustrated in a simple example.

Schaefer, M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1

The fuel characterization models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) have recently been extended to include a new U-Pu-Zr metal fuel model, MFUEL. MFUEL is equipped with mechanistic physics based models to predict the pre-transient characterization and transient response of metal fuel, with emphasis on fuel melting, cladding failure, and the metal fuel’s impact on core reactivity. The MFUEL model will be available in the full version of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 5.7, which is scheduled to be released in June 2023. Fast reactor fuel pins that operated in EBR-II and FFTF with low smear density U-Zr and U-Pu-Zr metal fuels and irradiation resistant ferritic-martensitic cladding showed significant advantages in achieving high burnups and assuring inherent safety characteristics during anticipated transients, design basis events, and beyond design basis events. For safety analysis, a fuel performance model must be able to predict (1) Fuel pin mechanics and compositional and dimensional changes, (2) Clad failure, and (3) Fuel pin thermal resistance. Achieving these high level goals accurately is strongly related to the model performance of individual physical processes taking place within a fuel pin during its lifetime. Metal fuels typically operate above the mid-point temperature of melting during normal, as well as off-normal, conditions. At these elevated temperatures, the availability of thermal activation provides a driving force for various diffusional processes leading to complex phase transformations, micro-structure evolution, significant amounts of fuel swelling, interconnected porosity formation, excessive amounts of fission gas release, and fuel clad chemical interactions. Clad failure in fast reactors primarily occurs as a result of creep rupture augmented by clad wastage formation. The reaction is driven by thermal creep induced dislocation motion, grain boundary cavity nucleation, growth and breakup of grain boundaries. The high level complexity and limited available data requires introducing physics-based modeling approaches to gain extrapolation ability and sensitivity with respect to various conditions. The objective of this report is to perform validation of MFUEL using the experimental data for (1) Normal operation EBR-II fuel behavior, (2) Normal operation PHENIX fuel behavior, (3) HT9 Pressure tube ramp-and-hold creep rupture tests, (4) Whole Pin Furnace (WPF) creep strain, creep rupture and eutectic tests, (5) Fuel Behavior Test Apparatus (FBTA) eutectic tests, and (6) TREAT M5-7 OverPower tests up to clad failure. Section-2 includes a brief description of the MFUEL models. A detailed description of the MFUEL physics-based, semi-empirical models will be presented in the SAS V 5.7 theory manual. Section-3, 4, and 5 describes the validation effort for the pre-transient irradiation, furnace transients, and TREAT M-Series transients, respectively.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Long-Term Quality Control Data for a 137 Cs Dosimetry Calibration Source

Strict quality assurance programs are required for many radiological applications, but these seldom exist for verifying dosimetry calibration sources. After initial characterization of a dosimetry calibration facility, quality control procedures are recommended to ensure the early detection of any changes or malfunctions. These also result in refined knowledge about average dose rate and experimental variations in dose delivery. This paper describes the implementation of a phase I quality control protocol for a 137 Cs dosimetry calibration source and includes an analysis of the resulting data collected over a 24-mo period. During this time, substantial data was collected to establish trial control limits. Air kerma rate measurements were obtained using an ion chamber and were adjusted for decay, corrected for ambient temperature, pressure and humidity, and then analyzed using quality control charts. Three variations of rational subgrouping methods were used in order to find assignable causes of error, and Nelson's Rules were followed to detect any non-random statistical variations. Measurements were subgrouped according to same-day measurements in order to detect positional errors as well as atmospheric correction errors. Additionally, measurements were subgrouped according to analogous experimental setups in order to detect failure in equipment or incorrect settings. Both were analyzed using the X-bar and R chart method. Similarly, individuals and moving ranges charts were used to carefully examine each position in order to observe any situational errors that may occur which include timing, positional, or interference errors. Each method was successful in identifying unique out-of-control data points that occurred during the phase I application of forming control limits. Furthermore, over the 24-mo period, enough data points were deemed in-control to establish reliable trial limits. Future experiments will include the phase II application of gaining more reliable measurements in order to fine-tune the limits, as well as performing a designed experiment, where variables are purposefully changed in order to test the variation of the data.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of condensate storage tanks in nuclear power plants

Condensate storage tanks (CSTs) in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are classified as critical equipment capable of surviving strong shaking in a design basis earthquake to assure the ability to subsequently provide cooling water. Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of CSTs are complicated due to fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and coupling issues, which could have significant effects on seismic response. The capability of a number of approximate models to capture seismic response is investigated using dynamic analysis results from detailed finite element models. Modal analyses and time history analyses are carried out using both 2D and 3D models to predict the dynamic behavior of CSTs as a function of ground motion intensity. Although 2D simplified models can be used to quickly evaluate the dynamic response of CSTs when there is substantial margin to failure, a detailed 3D model is required when it is necessary to examine a limit state associated with the failure mode of the tank. The findings show good agreement between the natural frequencies of convective modes determined from the 2D and 3D CST models. The difference between the frequencies of impulsive modes were found to be equal to or less than 25%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

To Fail or not to Fail: An Exploration of Machine Learning Techniques for Predictive Maintenance

Predictive maintenance refers to the ability to predict when machinery or systems need to be maintained. Making an accurate prediction is quite challenging given the costs for both over-estimating (unnecessary maintenance and reduction in availability of assets) and under-estimating (untimely breakdowns and possible loss of equipment or lives). To address these challenges researchers were able to develop new approaches for analyzing oil samples taken extracting samples from oil-wetted machinery that may provide information critical to developing predictive capabilities. We consider the problem from both supervised (though data limited) and unsupervised approaches and provide a first look into a data driven approach for identification of condition indicators. Through this work we identify a collection of candidate features that can form the basis of condition indicators for both a high level discrimination of failure vs. normal operation as well as a set for potential failure mode identification. Finally, we present an anomaly detection framework for detecting failures which can be a viable solution for an onboard analysis tool in deployed systems.

predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, Laserne↗
DOE OSTI2026

Laser interference structuring of Cu for adhesive joining of HVAC equipment

Due to potential energy and cost savings benefits, adhesive joining has been recently considered for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. HVAC adhesive bonding requires cost-effective and adequate surface preparations of adherents. Here, this article investigates the use of abrasion, traditional single-beam laser, and a laser-interference technique as surface preparations of copper surfaces. Surface morphology is characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Effective submicrometer peak-to-valley structuring with a periodicity of ∼2.7μ⁢m was demonstrated for laser-interference processing. Single-lap shear tests were conducted for 89 joints made with bondline thicknesses of 0.15 and 0.3 mm. Data on process variables and measured variables included open-time, bond length, maximum load, displacement at failure, shear lap strength, and failure mode. A statistical analysis was conducted on each lot to determine the lower limit with 95% confidence intervals for displacements at failure and shear lap strengths. A comparison is presented between the properties of laser-structured joints with respect to those prepared by abrasion, which is considered the baseline surface preparation technique. Based on this comparison, one single-beam laser technique and two laser-interference techniques were shown to exhibit vastly superior performance over the joints made with abraded specimens.

Sabau, Adrian S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
NASA NTRS1991

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lessons Learned From Ventilation and Glovebox Flooding Via Overfilling of the Wet Vacuum System in a Plutonium Facility

In the summer of 2021, operations personnel requested maintenance personnel to fill a wet vacuum (Wetvac) seal water tank in a plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). After the filling was finished, the fill valve of the Wetvac seal water tank was left open and a ‘dead-man’ valve on an isolation line failed to close properly. After a series of other failures, the water exited the glovebox and contaminated three rooms of the first floor of the facility and an underlying area in the basement. A retrospective analysis of this event determined that there was no risk of a criticality due to the inherent design features of the ventilation system. This paper will explain the driving factors behind how this event was able to happen, as well as some of the major lessons learned that can be universally applied to other nuclear facilities. One of the main causes of the event was the delegation of work to maintenance personnel that were not qualified for the work being asked of them. Additionally, there was a lack of coordination between criticality safety engineers and facility operations equipment owners regarding equipment and connections present on the seal water tanks for the Wetvac, specifically the presence of overflow drain lines. The respective criticality safety evaluation credited an overflow drain line being present on the seal water tanks that was later found to have not been present. Lastly, there are lessons to be learned regarding equipment configuration and designing systems with safety in mind.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

DROP DURABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRONIC ASSEMBLIES UNDER OFF-AXIS LOADING WITH SKEWED FIXTURES

This thesis studies drop durability of electronic assemblies when the acceleration vector is oriented at 45° to the out-of-plane direction of the circuit card. The off-axis drop tests are accomplished with a skewed fixture and are conducted as a proxy for multiaxial drop testing. Advanced shock testing and vibration test methods have been developed over the last few decades to better represent real-world field environments during ground-based laboratory testing. However, many of these test methods require expensive and specialized equipment not available in most laboratories. An alternative approach for approximating simultaneous loading along multiple axes on conventional equipment utilizes skewed fixtures which have seen use in off-axis random vibration and drop impact testing. These methods generally rely on the conversion of a uniaxial input load from the test equipment (using a uniaxial drop tower or shaker) into a multiaxial load when resolved in the reference frame of the test article (mounted on a skewed fixture). Skewed fixture design is presented and recommendations for conducting skewed angle drop testing are introduced based on local measurements along the skewed face of the fixture to accurately monitor the impact event. Characterization tests were performed with a skewed fixture, at simultaneous acceleration loads from 500 to 3,000 g in two (in-plane and out-of-plane) directions, while meeting standard time domain tolerances. Upon experimental characterization, drop shock durability tests were conducted on a printed circuit assembly (PCA). Mean drops-to-failure were measured and quantified with Weibull statistics. Dominant solder joint failure modes were identified via failure analysis. Prior work on inclined angle impact testing is limited, and the majority of solder joint interconnect level fatigue studies are conducted considering perpendicular loading normal the circuit card. Low-cycle fatigue curves are generated based on plastic strain and plastic work density within the solder joint. A multiscale nonlinear finite element model is used to relate board-level flexure to solder joint interconnect level plastic strain. A high strain rate solder constitutive model allows for accurate modeling of solder plasticity resulting from high-impact drop shock. Fatigue parameters are computed from the Coffin-Manson relation and Palmgren-Miner damage accumulation. This work serves to apply established low-cycle fatigue methods for conventional drop shock loading (impact normal to circuit card) to non-perpendicular loading with a skewed fixture.

Hower, Jonathan [Kansas City National Security Cam↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contaminant Investigation and Pre‐Processing Opportunities for Textile‐To‐Textile Recycling

Millions of metric tons of textiles are landfilled or incinerated each year in the United States, with less than 1% of textiles recycled into new clothing or fabrics. To counter this trend, a growing number of companies and researchers are exploring how a circular economy can be applied to support textile‐to‐textile recycling. A significant barrier they face comes down to quickly and efficiently extracting pure feedstock material from post‐consumer garments that feature a mix of natural and synthetic fibers. Textile recyclers prefer pure feedstocks, as working with mixed sources typically means lower throughput, higher risk of equipment failure, and diminished business margins. To facilitate a circular economy for textiles, methods, and technologies are needed that can efficiently separate out materials and contaminants from end‐of‐life textiles to increase the flow of pure feedstocks to recyclers. This paper summarizes findings from interviews with a cross section of textile recyclers and from a review of literature to define basic feedstock requirements. In addition to our qualitative research, we deconstruct a bale of post‐consumer textiles and analyze them using computer‐vision imaging, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and machine learning. The resulting data are used to set system‐level design inputs for an automated contaminant removal system to process post‐consumer clothing into appropriate feedstocks for recycling. To set the system's levels for automated real‐time near‐infrared analysis, we identify the minimum percentage of primary material that any single garment in a load of used clothing must contain for the average of the full output stream to meet the target purity levels of recyclers. Here, the envisioned automated system can also address undesirable trace materials that might contaminate the processed stream by using imaging cameras coupled with artificial intelligence to identify sections of clothing for de‐trimming. Proof‐of‐concept machine learning algorithms are evaluated to locate and identify trims or garment areas with hidden contaminant materials. Integrating these methods into automated textile cutting systems can provide a cost‐effective means for increasing feedstock purity from used clothing, which can advance circularity for textiles by helping recyclers to reach production volumes and quality targets that were not possible solely with manual dismantling operations.

Parsons, Ryan [Rochester Institute of Technology, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Materials Challenges and Opportunities for Energy Generation, Conversion, Delivery, and Storage (Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory Consortium Workshop Report)

This report documents the outcomes of the Tri-Laboratory Materials Workshop that was held July 31 and August 1, 2019 to begin addressing the needs, opportunities, and challenges associated with the development, fabrication, and testing of the needed materials and components for integrated hybrid energy systems (i.e., incorporating nuclear, fossil, and renewables for electric and thermal applications). This was accomplished by assembling the research program leads and principal investigators at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), who support the research and development of new technology and system integration. The team then identified and prioritized key materials development needs. This effort was intended to enhance communications and synergy among the Tri-Lab partners. Advanced functional and structural materials are central to transformative energy technologies for energy generation, conversion, delivery, and storage. With that in mind, the workshop focused on identifying and assessing the foundational materials research needs at both the basic and applied levels. Materials challenges include the ability to withstand harsh environments, such as high temperatures and pressures, corrosion, oxidation, or irradiation while maintaining flexible mission profiles and long service lifespans. Advanced energy system material challenges and needs range from materials for the capture, upgrading/concentration, storage, and delivery of low-grade heat to materials for high temperature environments that involve liquid metals, molten salt, and very high temperature gas heat delivery and storage systems. Material improvements are needed for hybrid energy systems due to accelerated corrosion and stress-fatigue failure of materials and equipment, which results from increased frequency and amplitude of thermal, mechanical, and electrical cycling of systems components. Multifunctional materials are needed for high temperature solid-oxide fuel cells, advanced electrochemical reactors, and in-process separation. Relative to materials manufacturing, application of advanced additive and subtractive methods need to be understood to develop both thin-layer homogenous materials and materials of graded composition. Materials modeling and machine learning will be critical to accelerate the design and production of power electronics, and nuclear reactor materials and fuel, as well as to gain an understanding of beneficial materials phenomena or deleterious microstructure evolution. There is also a need for standardized models, computational structures, data reporting protocols and modeling tools across the three laboratories. This would allow consistent results, analysis, and data sharing. Combining computational capabilities between the three laboratories (e.g., hardware, software) would greatly increase computational capabilities and throughput. The workshop identified the need for laboratories to anticipate and address problems that will occur during scale-up. Laboratory work must connect with industry to ensure that research focuses on processes that are scalable and marketable. Industry input and perspective are essential to guide laboratory research to meet these requirements and deploy new technology in industrial demonstrations. Another aspect of scale-up is the integration of multiple systems since new challenges often arise at the subsystem interfaces. Establishing a scale-up manufacturing demonstration/pilot plant, potentially as an industrial user facility, would be beneficial to the laboratories and industry. That modular scale-up manufacturing demonstration/pilot plant would allow researchers to find and resolve interface problems that cannot be identified by focusing only on individual parts. Communication exchanges among the organizers, attendees, and workshop survey responses indicate that the workshop was successful in achieving its goal to identify key technology gaps and research needs. Strong positive feedback was received on the sharing of ideas, capabilities, talent, and passion to move forward on the materials-related action items.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recommended Actions to Improve Adapter Safety

With the rapid advancement and acceleration in the electric vehicle (EV) industry within the United States, major automakers and EV charging companies are increasingly adopting the North American Charging Standard (NACS) connector style, now officially known as J3400. This shift is expected to enhance charging infrastructure, providing a better customer experience by making it easier for all EV drivers to access a wider network of direct-current (DC) fast chargers (DCFCs). However, the adoption of the J3400 standard presents challenges for many EVs already on the roads and some currently coming off production lines that are equipped with the Combined Charging System (CCS) connector, which this report will refer to as the North American standard, CCS1. These vehicles will need adapters to use new or existing J3400 infrastructure. During this transition, several issues have emerged. Firstly, there is a need to standardize the new connector type to ensure it is interoperable, safe, and reliable. Second, existing CCS EV drivers need a way to access the J3400 network, which will require electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) or sites with both connector types, driver-provided adapters to physically convert from CCS to J3400, or EVSE with retained adapters designed for use with the EVSE. Third, adapter standards will need to be written to specify how they will be designed and what evaluations will be needed to ensure safe and reliable performance. To address these challenges, adapters that support different types of charging connectors will be essential. These adapters will play a crucial role in supporting the transition and ensuring continued service for legacy EVs with CCS inlets as the J3400 standard becomes the predominant one in the United States. Consequently, the National Charging Experience (ChargeX) Consortium has investigated and performed a teardown analysis on the different adapter versions on the market. The aim is to create a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) on what are expected to be the most common adapter types used in this transition. In order to support this work, we executed an FMEA exercise with the main goal of identifying gaps in the existing adapters' performance and conformance to the most common safety requirements of high-power and high-voltage devices. This effort focused on adapters provided by the driver, as these may present the highest safety and reliability risks. The recommendations made here apply to both retained and driver-provided adapters.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1997

X-Ray Transmission Microscope Development

We have succeeded in meeting the goals set out in the proposal. A cadre of detector technologies is available to suit the requirements of the experiment. Resolutions of both real-time and absolute limits to resolution exceed the initial aspirations. Obtaining sufficient contrast is still a significant limitation but can be overcome by Judicious selection of the specimen composition. This can only take time and trial and error for a successful result. The 4th generation furnace provides the capability of real-time in-situ observations of composite alloy development. A low detection sensitivity however, has still made it difficult to observe dendritic growth, although it has been 'seen' in raw video; it was not a recordable signal. We have examined flight ampoules with XTM to observe particle and thermocouple placement, crucible flaws and cracks in collaboration with the Particle Pushing and Engulfment flight experiment (Dr. Stefanescu, UA, P.I.). The value of an in flight XTM to guard against experiment failure and safety assurance is obvious. Although not attributable to equipment limitations, a quest to observe particle pushing was not successful. We tried at length to prepare specimens that would demonstrate particle pushing. Instead, we were successful in imaging the interface deformation due to the thermal field distortion of a ceramic particle or void and to compare to calculated shapes. In theory, we should have been able to make major inroads to this field if the particles could be pushed and the velocities adjusted to make critical measurements. On the other hand, critical issues of sample preparation for the PEP flight experiment were established, particularly the clustering of particles and trapped voids. In this regard, the XTM did prove very useful so that flight specimens would work as expected and to perform post flight analysis. Although not a clear result, particle pushing of precipitates was observed in an Al-Si-Mn alloy. It may be that to be pushed, the particles need to be small and have clean surfaces like one might obtain from in-situ precipitation. The ability to image features in real time skill enable more fundamental and detailed understanding of solidification dynamics in microgravity than had previously been possible, thus, allowing the full benefits of microgravity experiments be applied towards rigorous testing of critical solidification models. The XTM is also a valuable tool for post solidification metallography. The 3-dimensional distribution of solute and solidification features within the specimen volume can be viewed without sectioning or other treatment when the solute has sufficiently higher atomic mass than the solvent. Thus the XTM could provide the first practical method for on orbit microstructural (metallographic) analysis by the astronauts or by telescience.

Kaukler, William F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

EVA Performance Prediction

Astronaut physical performance capabilities in micro gravity EV A or on planetary surfaces when encumbered by a life support suit and debilitated by a long exposure to micro gravity will be less than unencumbered pre flight capabilities. The big question addressed by human factors engineers is: what can the astronaut be expected to do on EVA or when we arrive at a planetary surface? A second question is: what aids to performance will be needed to enhance the human physical capability? These questions are important for a number of reasons. First it is necessary to carry out accurate planning of human physical demands to ensure that time and energy critical tasks can be carried out with confidence. Second it is important that the crew members (and their ground or planetary base monitors) have a realistic picture of their own capabilities, as excessive fatigue can lead to catastrophic failure. Third it is important to design appropriate equipment to enhance human sensory capabilities, locomotion, materials handling and manipulation. The evidence from physiological research points to musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and neurovestibular degradation during long duration exposure to micro gravity . The evidence from the biomechanics laboratory (and the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory) points to a reduction in range of motion, strength and stamina when encumbered by a pressurized suit. The evidence from a long history of EVAs is that crewmembers are indeed restricted in their physical capabilities. There is a wealth of evidence in the literature on the causes and effects of degraded human performance in the laboratory, in sports and athletics, in industry and in other physically demanding jobs. One approach to this challenge is through biomechanical and performance modeling. Such models must be based on thorough task analysis, reliable human performance data from controlled studies, and functional extrapolations validated in analog contexts. The task analyses currently carried out for EVA activities are based more on extensive domain experience than any formal analytic structure. Conversely, physical task analysis for industrial and structured evidence from training and EV A contexts. Again on earth there is considerable evidence of human performance degradation due to encumbrance and fatigue. These industrial models generally take the form of a discounting equation. The development of performance estimates for space operations, such as timeline predictions for EVA is generally based on specific input from training activity, for example in the NBL or KC135. uniformed services tasks on earth are much more formalized. Human performance data in the space context has two sources: first there is the micro analysis of performance in structured tasks by the space physiology community and second there is the less structured evidence from training and EV A contexts.

Peacock, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Aging System for Prognostics of Power Semiconductor Devices

Prognostics is an engineering discipline that focuses on estimation of the health state of a component and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) before failure. Health state estimation is based on actual conditions and it is fundamental for the prediction of RUL under anticipated future usage. Failure of electronic devices is of great concern as future aircraft will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. Therefore, development of prognostics solutions for electronics is of key importance. This paper presents an accelerated aging system for gate-controlled power transistors. This system allows for the understanding of the effects of failure mechanisms, and the identification of leading indicators of failure which are essential in the development of physics-based degradation models and RUL prediction. In particular, this system isolates electrical overstress from thermal overstress. Also, this system allows for a precise control of internal temperatures, enabling the exploration of intrinsic failure mechanisms not related to the device packaging. By controlling the temperature within safe operation levels of the device, accelerated aging is induced by electrical overstress only, avoiding the generation of thermal cycles. The temperature is controlled by active thermal-electric units. Several electrical and thermal signals are measured in-situ and recorded for further analysis in the identification of leading indicators of failures. This system, therefore, provides a unique capability in the exploration of different failure mechanisms and the identification of precursors of failure that can be used to provide a health management solution for electronic devices.

Celaya, Jose R.↗