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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Weather Analysis for Xcel Energy's 2030 Colorado Preferred Plan

The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy (Xcel), plans to meet its target of an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels by 2030 through its Preferred Plan1,2 that includes increasing the wind and solar energy on its system, reducing coal, and adjusting the operation and dispatch of new and existing thermal generation. The objective of our analysis reported here is to identify how the PSCo generation and transmission of its Preferred Plan might operate in the face of specific weather events. We investigate weather events that currently cause stress to PSCo’s system, such as winter storms and extreme heat. In addition, we explore how the future system responds to scenarios that may be considered normal weather conditions today, but that have a large impact on wind and solar generation potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of Soret effect on hydrogen and helium retention in PFC tungsten under ELM-like conditions

Abstract In our previous work, we have demonstrated using nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations that the fluxes of helium and self-interstitial atoms in the presence of a thermal gradient in tungsten are directed opposite to the heat flux, indicating that species transport is governed by a Soret effect, namely, thermal-gradient-driven diffusion, characterized by a negative heat of transport that drives species transport uphill, i.e. from the cooler to the hot regions of the tungsten sample. In this work, the findings of our thermal and species transport analysis have been implemented in our cluster-dynamics code, Xolotl, which has been used to compute temperature and species profiles over spatiotemporal scales representative of plasma-facing component (PFC) tungsten under typical reactor operating conditions, including extreme heat loads at the plasma-facing surface characteristic of plasma instabilities that induce edge localized modes (ELMs). We demonstrate that the steady-state species profiles, when properly accounting for the Soret effect, vary significantly from those where temperature-gradient-driven transport is not accounted for and discuss the implications of such a Soret effect on the response to plasma exposure of plasma-facing tungsten. Although our cluster-dynamics simulations do not yet include self-clustering of helium or hydrogen blister formation, our simulation results show that the Soret effect substantially reduces helium and hydrogenic species retention inside PFC tungsten.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Revolutionizing observations and predictability of Arctic system dynamics through next-generation dense, heterogeneous and intelligent wireless sensor networks with embedded AI

The Arctic region is a complex and dynamic system, where changes in temperature and partitioning between water in solid, liquid and vapor phase are fundamentally reshaping hydro-biogeochemical fluxes from the bedrock to the atmosphere. The increasing temperature and frequency of extreme heat, precipitation and fire events (Wang et al., 2017; Meredith et al., 2019) have critical consequences for the Arctic ecosystems and people, as well as for the global climate system. Although many observational and remote sensing activities have been on-going, detailed ecosystem processes – particularly related to controls on and impacts of permafrost thaw – are difficult to detect or measure. To improve the understanding and prediction of these extreme events and their consequences, we need a revolution in the way we collect ground-based observations from hillslope to pan-Arctic scales and couple them with satellite imagery and models to deliver rich, actionable, and scale-appropriate data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Yonkers Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Environmental and Social Drivers of Urban Heat Vulnerability and Model Urban Cooling Interventions in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, is located directly north of the Bronx in Westchester County and currently hosts a population of nearly 200,000. In response to increasing hot-weather episodes, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality is disproportionately affecting neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with Groundwork Hudson Valley to determine regions within Yonkers that are experiencing the most intense urban heat island effects, identify and rank sociodemographic and environmental determinants of increasing community-level vulnerability, map these vulnerabilities as a combined vulnerability index, complete a proximity analysis of walkability to local cooling centers and health facility locations, and model potential cooling strategies. The study area consisted of Yonkers, NY and the analyses used data from 2015-2020 (June through August). The project utilized NASA Earth observation products including Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). We assessed the benefits of different heat-mitigation scenarios by utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model. Results from these analyses can be used by Groundwork Hudson Valley, supporting the New York State’s Climate Safe Communities Certifiable Planning Actions, expanding knowledge on the relationship between historic redlining and environmental equity, and informing their Climate Safe Neighborhoods initiative to identify and prioritize mitigation efforts to abate the worst impacts of extreme heat.

Jillian Walechka↗

Huntsville Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate Urban Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature for Green Infrastructure Development and Urban Heat Mitigation in Huntsville, AL

Huntsville, Alabama’s population has grown by approximately 11% since 2010, due in part to the city’s advancing engineering industry. Rapid urban growth negatively impacts the environment by decreasing tree canopy cover and increasing impervious surface cover, which can intensify the urban heat island effect. To examine the impacts of this urban growth on the environment, the team partnered with the City of Huntsville to utilize Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Space Station’s Global Ecosystems Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). The team utilized these Earth observations in combination with ancillary datasets to create a suite of end products to assist in mitigating the effects of extreme heat due to urban expansion and tree canopy loss. Annual land surface temperature (LST) was calculated and land cover classes were derived through supervised and threshold classification methods to distinguish trees, other vegetation types, impervious surfaces, and water. From 2010 to 2019, LST increased approximately 4 °F for all census tracts within the city and the total amount of tree cover increased by approximately 3%. The findings will aid the city in future decision-making processes by indicating areas that would benefit from increased green infrastructure.

Greta Paris↗

Huntsville Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate Urban Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature for Green Infrastructure Development and Urban Heat Mitigation in Huntsville, Alabama

Huntsville, Alabama’s population has grown by approximately 11% since 2010, due in part to the city’s advancing engineering industry. Rapid urban growth negatively impacts the environment by decreasing tree canopy cover and increasing impervious surface cover, which can intensify the urban heat island effect. To examine the impacts of this urban growth on the environment, the team partnered with the City of Huntsville to utilize Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Space Station’s Global Ecosystems Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). The team utilized these Earth observations in combination with ancillary datasets to create a suite of end products to assist in mitigating the effects of extreme heat due to urban expansion and tree canopy loss. Annual land surface temperature (LST) was calculated and land cover classes were derived through supervised and threshold classification methods to distinguish trees, other vegetation types, impervious surfaces, and water. From 2010 to 2019, LST increased approximately 4 °F for all census tracts within the city and the total amount of tree cover increased by approximately 3%. The findings will aid the city in future decision-making processes by indicating areas that would benefit from increased green infrastructure.

Greta Paris↗

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate Urban Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature for Green Infrastructure Development and Urban Heat Mitigation in Huntsville, AL

Huntsville, Alabama’s population has grown by 10.8% since 2010, due in part to the city’s advancing engineering industry. Rapid urban growth negatively impacts the environment by decreasing tree canopy cover and increasing impervious surface cover, which can intensify the urban heat island effect. To examine the impacts of this urban growth on the environment, the team partnered with the City of Huntsville to utilize Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Space Station’s Global Ecosystems Dynamic Investigation (GEDI) and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). The team utilized these Earth observations in combination with ancillary datasets to create a suite of end products to assist in mitigating the effects of extreme heat due to urban expansion and tree canopy loss. Rasters of annual land surface temperature (LST) was calculated in Google Earth Engine from 2010 to 2019. The team derived land cover classes through supervised and threshold classification methods to distinguish trees, other vegetation types, impervious surfaces, and water. From 2010 to 2019, LST increased approximately 4 °F for all census tracts within the city and the total amount of tree cover increases less than 3%. The findings will aid the city in future decision-making processes by indicating areas that would benefit from increased green infrastructure.

Greta Paris↗

Preliminary Experiences with the Rexon UL-320-FDR: An Automated Thermoluminescent Dosimeter Reader with Removable Contact Heating Planchets and an Infrared Temperature Feedback System

The Rexon UL-320 FDR is a novel resistive-heating thermoluminescent dosimeter reader with a unique temperature measurement system and an automated dosimeter processing mechanism. The removable contact heating planchets have black-body adhesives on the back for capturing temperature information with infrared sensors. A heating cycle feedback loop ensures accurate, precise, and reproducible heating sequences. Heating rates between 0.8 and 40°C s -1 for up to 1,000 s are possible. Photomultiplier tube sensitivity and drift, dark current counts, and planchet glow were measured experimentally. Additionally, 25 LiF:Mg,Ti dosimeters were calibrated to demonstrate reader performance. Sensitivity was optimized at 1,200 V, which produced the highest reference light count to dark current count ratio while extending photomultiplier tube life. Dark current counts measured with typical time-temperature profiles for LiF:Mg,Ti were below 10 counts per channel but increased by up to 2.5% for more extreme heating cycles. Reader sensitivity drifts of up to 10% were observed during extended automated operations with typical time-temperature profiles. Total counts resulting from planchet glow decreased with faster heating rates. Calibrations performed with LiF:Mg,Ti dosimeters yielded results comparable to more established reader designs. Spikes were observed in ~3% of the glow curves from planchet dust and oil burning off at elevated temperatures. The use of N 2 gas and sensitivity drift corrections are recommended to improve dosimetry performance for the UL-320 FDR reader.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Frenkel excitons in heat-stressed supramolecular nanocomposites enabled by tunable cage-like scaffolding

Delocalized Frenkel excitons—coherently shared excitations among chromophores—are responsible for the remarkable efficiency of supramolecular light-harvesting assemblies within photosynthetic organisms. The translation of nature’s design principles to applications in optoelectronic devices has been limited by the fragility of the supramolecular structures used and the delicate nature of Frenkel excitons, particularly under mildly changing solvent conditions and elevated temperatures and upon deposition onto solid substrates. Here, we overcome those functionalization barriers through composition of stable supramolecular light-harvesting nanotubes enabled by tunable (~4.3–4.9 nm), uniform (±0.3 nm) cage-like scaffolds. High-resolution cryogenic electron microscopy, combined with scanning electron microscopy, broadband femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy and near-field scanning optical microscopy revealed that excitons within the cage-like scaffolds are robust, even under extreme heat stress, and control over nanocomposite dimensions is maintained on solid substrates. Our bio-inspired nanocomposites provide a general framework for the development of next-generation organic devices made from stable supramolecular materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Passive cooling designs to improve heat resilience of homes in underserved and vulnerable communities

Disadvantaged communities face a growing threat to staying safe during heat waves, especially during coincident power outages. This study develops a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of passive cooling measures (those that operate without power) to improve residential building heat resilience. Building performance is simulated for representative homes and on district scales in two disadvantaged communities in Fresno, California. Eleven passive measures are evaluated using four heat resilience metrics with and without grid power. Results show performance of the mitigation measures varies by building characteristics, surrounding environment, and power scenario. The two most effective measures were installing solar-control window films and adding roof insulation. For pre-1978 single-family homes, these two measures can reduce unmet degree-hours (UDH) indoors by 12% and 11% respectively without grid power, or 28% and 37% with grid power. Their respective UDH reductions at district scale typically range 8% — 20% and 4% — 12% without grid power, or 14% — 44% and 8% — 51% with grid power. Top floors have higher overheating risk than lower floors during extreme heat events with coincident power outages. Natural ventilation can help, reducing UDH by 21% — 26%. The methodology and findings from this study can help cities, communities, and utilities develop effective and targeted strategies to promote greater residential heat resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine learning–based extreme event attribution

The observed increase in extreme weather has prompted recent methodological advances in extreme event attribution. We propose a machine learning–based approach that uses convolutional neural networks to create dynamically consistent counterfactual versions of historical extreme events under different levels of global mean temperature (GMT). We apply this technique to one recent extreme heat event (southcentral North America 2023) and several historical events that have been previously analyzed using established attribution methods. We estimate that temperatures during the southcentral North America event were 1.18° to 1.42°C warmer because of global warming and that similar events will occur 0.14 to 0.60 times per year at 2.0°C above preindustrial levels of GMT. Additionally, we find that the learned relationships between daily temperature and GMT are influenced by the seasonality of the forced temperature response and the daily meteorological conditions. Our results broadly agree with other attribution techniques, suggesting that machine learning can be used to perform rapid, low-cost attribution of extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rudder/Fin Seals Investigated for the X-38 Re-Entry Vehicle

NASA is developing the X-38 vehicle that will demonstrate the technologies required for a potential crew return vehicle for the International Space Station. This vehicle would serve both as an ambulance for medical emergencies and as an evacuation vehicle for the space station. Control surfaces on the X-38 (body flaps and rudder/fin assemblies) require high temperature seals to limit hot gas ingestion and the transfer of heat to underlying low temperature structures. Working with the NASA Johnson Space Center, the Seals Team at the NASA Glenn Research Center completed a series of tests to further characterize baseline seal designs for the rudder/fin interfaces of the X-38. The structures of the rudder/fin assembly and its associated seals are shown in the the preceding illustration. Tests performed at Glenn indicated that exposure of the seals in a compressed state at simulated seal re-entry temperatures resulted in a large permanent set and loss of seal resiliency. This could be of concern because the seals are required to maintain contact with the sealing surfaces while the vehicle goes through the maximum re-entry heating cycle to prevent hot gases from leaking past the seals and damaging interior low-temperature structures. To simulate conditions in which the seals may become unloaded during use, such as when they take on a large permanent set, Glenn researchers performed room temperature flow and compression tests to determine seal flow rates, resiliency, and unit loads under minimal loads. Flow rates through an unloaded (i.e., 0-percent compression) double seal arrangement were twice those of a double seal compressed to the 20-percent design compression level. These flow rates are being used in thermal analyses to predict the effect of flow through the seals on over-all seal temperatures. Compression test results showed that seal unit loads and contact pressures were below the limits that Johnson had set as goals for the seals. In the rudder/fin seal location, the seals are in contact with shuttle thermal tiles and are moved across the tiles as the rudder is rotated during re-entry. Low seal unit loads and contact pressures are required to limit the loads on these tiles and minimize any damage that the seals could cause. A series of tests were performed on these seals in NASA Ames Research Center's arc jet facility. The arc jet facility approximates relevant thermal environments that a seal or other structure would be subjected to during extreme heating conditions such as those experienced during space vehicle re-entry. Eleven tests were completed, including one test in which no seal was installed in the gap to examine the flow of heat down into the gap. The seal was compressed between stationary insulation tiles and a movable elevon that was rotated during the test to deflect the arc jet exhaust into the seal gap. Peak seal temperatures as high as 2000 F were reached during the 5-min tests. Results of these tests indicate satisfactory performance of the seal for single-use (e.g., X-38) applications. The results of these tests were shared with the NASA Johnson Space Center and are being used to validate aerothermostructural analysis codes that predict seal temperatures under these conditions. The tests performed at Glenn have provided valuable information to Johnson about the performance of the seals that they are considering using in the rudder/fin location of the X-38 vehicle. Glenn and Johnson are currently defining what additional work needs to be done to develop the final rudder/fin seal design for the X-38 vehicle.

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.↗

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A review of challenges, barriers, and opportunities for large-scale deployment of cool surfaces

Major urban centers are warming due to a combination of global and local phenomena. City governments are increasingly adopting strategies to mitigate the causes and impacts of extreme heat on their populations. Among these strategies are high solar-reflectance (cool) surfaces installed on building roofs and walls. Use of cool surfaces is a cost-effective and simple strategy that replaces conventional darker surfaces with surfaces that have a high reflectance to shortwave (solar) energy. This report reviews the recent history of cool-surface deployment efforts. This includes peer-reviewed literature, conference proceedings, and grey literature to identify challenges and barriers to wide-scale deployment of cool surfaces. We have also researched heat action plans and programs from cities and different codes and standards, as well as available incentive and rebate programs. The review identifies challenges, barriers, and opportunities associated with large-scale deployment of cool surfaces and categorize them broadly as being related to product development & performance or policies & mandates. It provides a foundation upon which we intend to build a roadmap for rapidly accelerating future deployments of cool surfaces. Finally, this roadmap will address identified challenges and incorporate lessons learned from historical efforts to generate a practical and actionable plan.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved liquid lithium surfaces in the Lithium Tokamak Experiment-β

Advances in vacuum, surface, and lithium conditioning techniques throughout five years of continuous operations in LTX-β have produced mirror-like liquid lithium surfaces and demonstrated the feasibility of high-performance tokamak discharges fully surrounded by liquid metal without significant operational problems. Improvements in conditioning techniques and procedures, including many weeks of baking and accumulation of 70 g of Li, led to reduced residual gasses and clean Li surfaces - all while still maintaining enough operational flexibility for multiple in-vacuum diagnostic upgrades and calibrations. Coatings had a visibly clean appearance, with reflective liquid metal demonstrating good wetting and surface adhesion with films that were now macroscopically thick. Solidified Li showed large crystal grains, while surface science measurements observed reduced impurities in the lithium. Steadily improved plasma performance was achieved with liquid lithium, with discharges able to match solid Li in terms of evolution of I p and n e , including rapid density pumping indicating low recycling. There were indications of moderately increased Li impurity influx, though few significant disturbances by the large liquid surfaces on tokamak operations over hundreds of discharges. Liquid metal plasma facing components are a potential solution to the extreme heat and particle fluxes that could cause unacceptable damage to solid materials, while liquid lithium also has the potential for greatly increased confinement in the low-recycling regime. While many liquid metal approaches are possible, and numerous experiments have been conducted in test stands and small modules in fusion devices, LTX-β is the only tokamak operated while fully surrounded by liquid metal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗