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Climate modeling is discussed with emphasis on the control of major parameters in such modeling. Possible feedbacks which operate on long time scales and are therefore not testable directly, are also discussed. Examples of simplified models are presented. The accuracy of several models is assessed and suggestions for improvements for climatic modeling are given.
Changes in cloud scattering properties and emissivity that arise from atmospheric warming cause substantial radiative feedbacks in model projections of anthropogenic climate change, and the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms is poorly understood. One leading hypothesis is that ice-to-liquid conversions cause clouds to optically thicken, producing a major negative feedback. We test this hypothesis by developing a method to decompose cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. The method is applied to an ensemble of six state-of-the-art global climate models run with prescribed sea surface temperature. In these simulations, the global mean of the net cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions ranges from −0.17 to −0.01 W m −2 K −1 , while the overall net cloud feedback ranges from 0.02 to 0.91 W m −2 K −1 . The multimodel mean of the cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions is approximately 19% of the magnitude of the multimodel mean of the overall cloud feedback (−0.10 vs 0.52 W m −2 K −1 ). These results indicate that cloud-phase conversions cause a robust negative feedback by changing cloud scattering and emissivity, but this mechanism makes a modest contribution to the overall cloud feedback at the global scale.
The contributions to nonlinear behavior and unstable response of the model following yaw control system of a VTOL aircraft during hover were determined. The system was designed as a state rate feedback implicit model follower that provided yaw rate command/heading hold capability and used combined full authority parallel and limited authority series servo actuators to generate an input to the yaw reaction control system of the aircraft. Both linear and nonlinear system models, as well as describing function linearization techniques were used to determine the influence on the control system instability of input magnitude and bandwidth, series servo authority, and system bandwidth. Results of the analysis describe stability boundaries as a function of these system design characteristics.
Recent investigations have examined observations in an attempt to determine when and how the ocean forces the atmosphere, and vice versa. These studies focus primarily on relationships between sea surface temperature anomalies and the turbulent and radiative surface heat fluxes. It has been found that both positive and negative feedbacks, which enhance or reduce sea surface temperature anomaly amplitudes, can be generated through changes in the surface boundary layer. Consequent changes in sea surface temperature act to change boundary layer characteristics through changes in static stability or turbulent fluxes. Previous studies over the global oceans have used coarse-resolution observational and model products such as ICOADS and the NCEP Reanalysis. This study focuses on documenting the atmosphere ocean feedbacks that exist in recently produced higher resolution products, namely the SeaFlux v1.0 product and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). It has been noted in recent studies that evidence of oceanic forcing of the atmosphere exists on smaller scales than the usually more dominant atmospheric forcing of the ocean, particularly in higher latitudes. It is expected that use of these higher resolution products will allow for a more comprehensive description of these small-scale ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The SeaFlux intercomparisons have revealed large scatter between various surface flux climatologies. This study also investigates the uncertainty in surface flux feedbacks based on several of these recent satellite based climatologies
A bi-stable mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is found in a 10-member ensemble simulation of the SSP2-4.5 scenario using the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model. Local feedbacks in the subpolar North Atlantic region in conjunction with internal variability in sea-ice transport and melt play a critical role in causing the divergent behavior of the AMOC in the ensemble members. While other fully coupled models have demonstrated the important role of surface freshening in leading to AMOC shutdown, either through hosing experiments or increased precipitation and greenhouse gas warming at high latitudes, in the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. This is the first time that a CMIP-class model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble.
Galactic rotation curves exhibit a diverse range of inner slopes. Observational data indicates that explaining this diversity may require a mechanism that correlates a galaxy's surface brightness with the central-most region of its dark matter halo. Here, in this work, we compare several concrete models that capture the relevant physics required to explain the galaxy diversity problem. We focus specifically on a Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) model with an isothermal core and two Cold Dark Matter (CDM) models with/without baryonic feedback. In contrast to the CDM case, the SIDM model can lead to the formation of an isothermal core in the halo, and is also mostly insensitive to baryonic feedback processes, which act on longer time-scales. Using rotation curves from 90 galaxies in the Spitzer Photometry & Accurate Rotation Curves (SPARC) catalog, we perform a comprehensive model comparison that addresses issues of statistical methodology from prior works. The best-fit halo models that we recover are consistent with standard CDM concentration-mass and abundance matching relations. We find that both the SIDM and feedback-affected CDM models are better than a CDM model with no feedback in explaining the rotation curves of low and high surface brightness galaxies in the sample. However, when compared to each other, there is no strong statistical preference for either the SIDM or the feedback-affected CDM halo model as the source of galaxy diversity in the SPARC catalog.
Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.
We consider the question of how the cardiac rhythm spontaneously self-regulates and propose a new mechanism as a possible answer. We model the neuroautonomic regulation of the heart rate as a stochastic feedback system and find that the model successfully accounts for key characteristics of cardiac variability, including the 1/f power spectrum, the functional form and scaling of the distribution of variations of the interbeat intervals, and the correlations in the Fourier phases which indicate nonlinear dynamics.
Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.
This report presents an analysis and performance comparison of five system identification algorithms. The methods are presented in the context of identifying a frequency-domain transfer matrix for the higher harmonic control (HHC) of helicopter vibration. The five system identification algorithms include three previously proposed methods: (1) the weighted-least- squares-error approach (in moving-block format), (2) the Kalman filter method, and (3) the least-mean-squares (LMS) filter method. In addition there are two new ones: (4) a generalized Kalman filter method and (5) a generalized LMS filter method. The generalized Kalman filter method and the generalized LMS filter method were derived as extensions of the classic methods to permit identification by using more than one measurement per identification cycle. Simulation results are presented for conditions ranging from the ideal case of a stationary transfer matrix and no measurement noise to the more complex cases involving both measurement noise and transfer-matrix variation. Both open-loop identification and closed- loop identification were simulated. Closed-loop mode identification was more challenging than open-loop identification because of the decreasing signal-to-noise ratio as the vibration became reduced. The closed-loop simulation considered both local-model identification, with measured vibration feedback and global-model identification with feedback of the identified uncontrolled vibration. The algorithms were evaluated in terms of their accuracy, stability, convergence properties, computation speeds, and relative ease of implementation.
Non-nuclear testing can be a valuable tool in development of a space nuclear power or propulsion system. In a non-nuclear test bed, electric heaters are used to simulate the heat from nuclear fuel. Standard testing allows one to fully assess thermal, heat transfer, and stress related attributes of a given system, but fails to demonstrate the dynamic response that would be present in an integrated, fueled reactor system. The integration of thermal hydraulic hardware tests with simulated neutronic response provides a bridge between electrically heated testing and full nuclear testing. By implementing a neutronic response model to simulate the dynamic response that would be expected in a fueled reactor system, one can better understand system integration issues, characterize integrated system response times and response characteristics, and assess potential design improvements at a relatively small fiscal investment. Initial system dynamic response testing was demonstrated on the integrated SAFE-100a heat pipe cooled, electrically heated reactor and heat exchanger hardware, utilizing a one-group solution to the point kinetics equations to simulate the expected neutronic response of the system (Bragg-Sitton, 2005). The current paper applies the same testing methodology to a direct drive gas cooled reactor system, demonstrating the applicability of the testing methodology to any reactor type and demonstrating the variation in system response characteristics in different reactor concepts. In each testing application, core power transients were controlled by a point kinetics model with reactivity feedback based on core average temperature; the neutron generation time and the temperature feedback coefficient are provided as model inputs. Although both system designs utilize a fast spectrum reactor, the method of cooling the reactor differs significantly, leading to a variable system response that can be demonstrated and assessed in a non-nuclear test facility.
The initial conditions and relevant physics for the formation of the earliest galaxies are well specified in the concordance cosmology. Using ab initio cosmological Eulerian adaptive mesh refinement radiation hydrodynamical calculations, we discuss how very massive stars start the process of cosmological reionization. The models include nonequilibrium primordial gas chemistry and cooling processes and accurate radiation transport in the case B approximation using adaptively ray-traced photon packages, retaining the time derivative in the transport equation. Supernova feedback is modeled by thermal explosions triggered at parsec scales. All calculations resolve the local Jeans length by at least 16 grid cells at all times and as such cover a spatial dynamic range of approx.10(exp 6). These first sources of reionization are highly intermittent and anisotropic and first photoionize the small-scale voids surrounding the halos they form in, rather than the dense filaments they are embedded in. As the merging objects form larger, dwarf-sized galaxies, the escape fraction of UV radiation decreases and the H II regions only break out on some sides of the galaxies, making them even more anisotropic. In three cases, SN blast waves induce star formation in overdense regions that were formed earlier from ionization front instabilities. These stars form tens of parsecs away from the center of their parent DM halo. Approximately five ionizing photons are needed per sustained ionization when star formation in 10(exp 6) stellar Mass halos is dominant in the calculation. As the halos become larger than approx.10(exp 7) Stellar Mass, the ionizing photon escape fraction decreases, which in turn increases the number of photons per ionization to 15-50, in calculations with stellar feedback only. Radiative feedback decreases clumping factors by 25% when compared to simulations without star formation and increases the average temperature of ionized gas to values between 3000 and 10,000 K.
The design goal of an advanced teleoperator control system is twofold: 1) to allow the operator's manual control to be robust to system nonlinearities such as time delays and operator's control errors, and 2) to support the high performance of teleoperation while reducing the operator's control burden by providing the master and slave arms with desirable dynamic properties and by allowing the slave arm to automatically perform such control tasks as compliance and force control in the form of task sharing. The authors present a novel teleoperator control system achieving the above design goal by taking the following into consideration: the human dynamics involved in generating control command based on visual and forced feedback is modeled and incorporated into the controller design and evaluation; the dynamic characteristics of slave and master arms are actively modified in such a way as to implement the desirable dynamic characteristics; and the force feedback is redefined in terms of the combination of opposition and force discrepancies in order to establish the required man/machine dynamic coordination under shared control. The proposed control system with human dynamics in the control loop is simulated and compared with a number of conventional methods in the presence of human control errors and time delays.
Integrated flight/propulsion control systems have been designed for operation of STOVL aircraft over the low speed powered-lift flight envelope. The control system employs command modes for attitude, flightpath angle and flightpath acceleration during transition, and translational velocity command for hover and vertical landing. The command modes and feedback control are implemented in the form of a state-rate feedback implicit model follower to achieve the desired flying qualities and to suppress the effects of external disturbances and variations in the aircraft characteristics over the low speed envelope. A nonlinear inverse system was used to translate the output from these commands and feedback control into commands for the various aerodynamic and propulsion control effectors that are employed in powered-lift flight. Piloted evaluations of these STOVL integrated control designs have been conducted on Ames Research Center's Vertical Motion Simulator to assess flying qualities over the low-speed flight envelope. Results indicate that Level 1 flying qualities are achieved with this control system concept for each of these low-speed operations over a wide range of wind, atmospheric turbulence, and visibility conditions.
This technical report presents Prithvi-EO-2.0, a new geospatial foundation model that offers significant improvements over its predecessor, Prithvi-EO-1.0. Trained on 4.2M global time series samples from NASA’s Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archive at 30m resolution, the new 300M and 600M parameter models incorporate temporal and location embeddings for enhanced performance across various geospatial tasks. Through extensive benchmarking with GEOBench, the 600M version outperforms the previous Prithvi-EO model by 8% across a range of tasks. It also outperforms six other geospatial foundation models when benchmarked on remote sensing tasks from different domains and resolutions (i.e. from 0.1m to 15m). The results demonstrate the versatility of the model in both classical earth observation and high-resolution applications. Early involvement of end-users and subject matter experts (SMEs) are among the key factors that contributed to the project’s success. In particular, SME involvement allowed for constant feedback on model and dataset design, as well as successful customization for diverse SME-led applications in disaster response, land use and crop mapping, and ecosystem dynamics monitoring. Prithvi-EO-2.0 is available on Hugging Face and IBM terratorch, with additional resources on GitHub. The project exemplifies the Trusted Open Science approach embraced by all involved organizations.
Abstract Fusion neutronics calculations provide important metrics pertinent to fusion device operations, such as tritium breeding ratios (TBRs) and data on heat deposition, material activation, and damage. Because of the high computational burden required to generate a high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulation of a 3D fusion device, various assumptions are made to reduce computational time by simplifying the reactor model or the calculation iteration. This paper explores the impact of fusion neutronics metrics such as the TBR and decay heat of structural materials based on assumptions of material composition in the fusion reactor and temperature modeling of materials. Results show that for compact tokamaks with high power and long operational cycles, the transmutation of structural materials is significant enough to cause a substantial change in the flux spectrum and decrease the TBR by 1.68% after 2 years of full power operation. Additionally, assuming a constant temperature and material density can impact the TBR calculations up to 3%.
Examples of feedback among radiative, chemical and dynamical processes are discussed. The characteristics of the two dimensional (2-D) and three dimensional (3-D) models used in stratospheric ozone studies are discussed. The status of these multidimensional atmospheric photochemical models, their current capabilities and limitations, and possible impact on the chlorofluoromethane problem are presented. Requirements, techniques and problems of the parameterization of transport in 3-D models are described, the observational needs of multidimensional models are presented, and a summary is provided.
Distributed Energy Resources and their increased penetration within the power grid are a suitable method to provide essential reliability services. In order to do so, they must operate in aggregate. Aggregation of a wide variety of systems with varying standards and protocols is a complex task, which could benefit from rules and standards to support interoperability. To this end, the Portland State University Power Lab has developed the Energy Grid of Things project, which includes a Distributed Energy Resource Management System to provide aggregation and demonstrate the usage of an Energy Services Interface: a set of rules governing the interface between resource owners and aggregator businesses. This thesis presents a Modeling Environment that provides a simulation and test platform reflecting the complex needs of an aggregator. A grid simulator is required that is able to reflect the effects of thousands of Distributed Energy Resources operating in tandem; furthermore, these effects must be communicated to external actors such as the Grid Operator, which provides grid service requests to the aggregator and requires feedback. The Modeling Environment provides all of this functionality by leveraging the GridAPPS-D platform to develop an interoperable class-based system that provides configurable simulations with modular input and output APIs. The Modeling Environment uses abstractions to allow any feasible type of input to be reflected within the model as a Distributed Energy Resource, and serves as a proof-of-concept for the development of aggregation simulation and testing within GridAPPS-D.