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NASA NTRS2010

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Frigm, Ryan C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Fitts, Mary A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Early Results and Spaceflight Implications of the SWAB Flight Experiment

Microbial monitoring of spacecraft environments provides key information in the assessment of infectious disease risk to the crew. Monitoring aboard the Mir space station and International Space Station (ISS) has provided a tremendous informational baseline to aid in determining the types and concentrations of microorganisms during a mission. Still, current microbial monitoring hardware utilizes culture-based methodology which may not detect many medically significant organisms, such as Legionella pneumophila. We hypothesize that evaluation of the ISS environment using non-culture-based technologies would reveal microorganisms not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. To achieve this goal, a spaceflight experiment, operationally designated as SWAB, was designed to evaluate the DNA from environmental samples collected from ISS and vehicles destined for ISS. Results from initial samples indicate that the sample collection and return procedures were successful. Analysis of these samples using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and targeted PCR primers for fungal contaminants is underway. The current results of SWAB and their implication for in-flight molecular analysis of environmental samples will be discussed.

Ott, C. Mark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cumulative Distribution Overlap Technique for Artemis Mission Public Entry Risk Assessment

The Artemis missions use a skip-entry profile to accomplish a recovery near the western US coastline, however, the service module debris must still be disposed of safely. For certain contingency return scenarios, the expected dispersed entry profile is biased from the well-analyzed corridor. A novel method is presented for assessing the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of these biased results to ensure they do not contribute additional probabilistic risk to the public. More specifically, the weight of the flight path angle dispersion "tail" of the CDF needs to remain below the well-assessed region. The details of how this method was actually used to screen and plan entry profiles for specific launch windows during the Artemis I mission are shown. This method has potential applicability in other problems where a biased distribution needs to be assessed against a well-defined "core" region.

Reentry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cumulative Distribution Overlap Technique for Artemis Mission Public Entry Risk Assessment

Reentry↗

NASA NTRS2017

Ocular Coherence Tomography in the Evaluation of Anterior Eye Injuries in Space Flight

While Ocular Coherence Tomography (OCT) is not a first-line modality to evaluate anterior eye structures terrestrially, it is a resource already available on the International Space Station (ISS) that can be used in medical contingencies that involve the anterior eye. With remote guidance and subject matter expert (SME) support from the ground, a minimally trained crewmember can now use OCT to evaluate anterior eye pathologies on orbit. OCT utilizes low-coherence interferometry to produce detailed cross-sectional and 3D images of the eye in real time. Terrestrially, it has been used to evaluate macular pathologies and glaucoma. Since 2013, OCT has been used onboard the ISS as one part of a suite of hardware to evaluate the Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure risk faced by astronauts, specifically assessing changes in the retina and choroid during space flight. The Anterior Segment Module (ASM), an add-on lens, was also flown for research studies, providing an opportunity to evaluate the anterior eye in real time if clinically indicated. Anterior eye pathologies that could be evaluated using OCT were identified. These included corneal abrasions and ulcers, scleritis, and acute angle closure glaucoma. A remote guider script was written to provide ground specialists with step-by-step instructions to guide ISS crewmembers, who do not get trained on the ASM, to evaluate the anterior eye. The instructions were tested on novice subjects and/or operators, whose feedback was incorporated iteratively. The final remote guider script was reviewed by SME optometrists and NASA flight surgeons. The novel application of OCT technology to space flight allows for the acquisition of objective data to diagnose anterior eye pathologies when other modalities are not available. This demonstrates the versatility of OCT and highlights the advantages of using existing hardware and remote guidance skills to expand clinical capabilities in space flight.

Fer, Dan M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of A Crew Health and Performance System Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool: Proof-of-Concept Approach

The crew health and performance (CHP) system represents the span of technological interventions and tested processes and procedures that in combination address the human risk to space flight. The Human Research Program (HRP) mental model of the CHP system breaks the capabilities needed to meet NASA human flight systems standards into specific categories (i.e., countermeasures, behavioral health, medical intervention). These categories are further broken down into specific sub-groups generally associated with the human system risks that these capabilities seek to mitigate. Like the approach used to develop the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Analysis Tool (MEDPRAT), HRP tasked NASA GRC’s Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project with developing a CHP probabilistic risk assessment tool, the CHP-PRA. The CHP-PRA model seeks to quantify and relatively assess the human risk state within the crew health and performance domain, using a combination of knowledge about human system risks and technology and practices likely to be applied during space flight missions. This modeling system will incorporate customer and stakeholder feedback and be flexible enough to address multiple different questions about important low-level mission-specific parameters. This presentation will introduce the initial concept and development timeline for this tool and demonstrate proof-of-concept through an application addressing a specific human risk question posed within the Artemis program.

Risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Francisco, D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted to change this by developing a PRA tool that would be friendlier, more understandable, and more useful to the broader engineering community. This concept ultimately led to the look, feel, and functionality that QRAS has today.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

Defining the Relationship between Biomarkers of Oxidative and Inflammatory Stress and the Risk for Atherosclerosis in Astronauts during and after Long-duration Spaceflight

Future human space travel will consist primarily of long-duration missions onboard the International Space Station (ISS) or exploration-class missions to Mars, its moons, or nearby asteroids. These missions will expose astronauts to increased risk of oxidative and inflammatory damage from a variety of sources, including radiation, psychological stress, reduced physical activity, diminished nutritional status, and hyperoxic exposure during extravehicular activity. Evidence exists that increased oxidative damage and inflammation can accelerate the development of atherosclerosis. PURPOSE The purpose of this investigation is to determine whether biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress are elevated during and after long-duration spaceflight and investigate if a relation exists between levels of these biomarkers and structural and functional indices of atherosclerotic risk measured in the carotid and brachial arteries. This is the first study to propose assessing atherosclerotic risk using biochemical, structural, and functional measures before, during, and immediately after spaceflight, and structural and functional measures for up to 5 years after landing. METHODS We will study 12 astronauts before, during, and up to 5 years after long-duration ISS missions. A panel of biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress will be measured twice before flight, early (flight days 15 and 60) and late (2 weeks before landing) during the mission, and early in the postflight recovery phase (approx 3 days after landing). Arterial structure and vascular compliance will be measured at the same times and also at 1, 3, and 5 years after landing (surveillance). Arterial function will be measured using the same preflight, postflight, and surveillance schedule as arterial structure and vascular compliance measures, but will not be measured inflight. Biomarkers, some of which we have previously shown to be elevated with spaceflight, will be measured in venous blood samples and 24-h (in-flight) and 48-h (pre- and post-flight) urine pools. Arterial structure will be assessed from measures of carotid intima-media thickness, which have been shown to be better indicators of atherosclerotic than the Framingham Risk Score. Arterial function will be assessed using brachial flow-mediated dilation, a well-validated measure used to assess endothelium-dependent vasodilation and is a sensitive predictor of atherosclerotic risk. Arterial pulse pressure measured in the brachial artery and stroke volume measured from cardiac ultrasound will be used to assess hemodynamic status, cardiac function, and systemic vascular compliance. Three astronauts are actively participating in the preflight data collection and training activities. One astronaut has completed all preflight activities and will participate in the first in-flight data collection sessions by the end of 2013. The first post-flight data collection sessions will occur in the spring of 2014. EXPECTED RESULTS We hypothesize that biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress will increased with spaceflight and will correlate with increased carotid intima-media thickness during and after flight and with decreased flow-mediated dilation after the mission. Furthermore, we hypothesize that measures of oxidative stress will return to baseline after flight, but biomarkers of inflammatory stress and vascular indices of atherosclerotic risk will remain elevated.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1981

JPL antenna technology development

Plans for evaluating, designing, fabricating, transporting and deploying cost effective and STS compatible offset wrap rib antennas up to 300 meters in diameter for mobile communications, Earth resources observation, and for the orbiting VLBI are reviewed. The JPL surface measurement system, intended for large mesh deployable antenna applications will be demonstrated and validated as part of the antenna ground based demonstration program. Results of the offset wrap rib deployable antenna technology development will include: (1) high confidence structural designs for antennas up to 100 meters in diameter; (2) high confidence estimates of functional performance and fabrication cost for a wide range of antenna sizes (up to 300 meters in diameter); (3) risk assessment for fabricating the large size antennas; and (4) 55 meter diameter flight quality hardware that can be cost effectively completed toto accommodate a flight experiment and/or application.

Freeland, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

CFD Applications in Support of the Space Shuttle Risk Assessment

The paper describes a numerical study of a potential accident scenario of the space shuttle, operating at the same flight conditions as flight 51L, the Challenger accident. The interest in performing this simulation is derived by evidence that indicates that the event itself did not exert large enough blast loading on the shuttle to break it apart. Rather, the quasi-steady aerodynamic loading on the damaged, unbalance vehicle caused the break-up. Despite the enormous explosive potential of the shuttle total fuel load (both liquid and solid), the post accident explosives working group estimated the maximum energy involvement to be equivalent to about five hundreds of pounds of TNT. This understanding motivated the simulation described here. To err on the conservative side, we modeled the event as an explosion, and used the maximum energy estimate. We modeled the transient detonation of a 500 lbs spherical charge of TNT, placed at the main engine, and the resulting blast wave propagation about the complete stack. Tracking of peak pressures and impulses at hundreds of locations on the vehicle surface indicate that the blast load was insufficient to break the vehicle, hence demonstrating likely crew survivability through such an event.

Baum, Joseph D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Analysis of radiation risk from alpha particle component of solar particle events

The solar particle events (SPE) will contain a primary alpha particle component, representing a possible increase in the potential risk to astronauts during an SPE over the often studied proton component. We discuss the physical interactions of alpha particles important in describing the transport of these particles through spacecraft and body shielding. Models of light ion reactions are presented and their effects on energy and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra in shielding discussed. We present predictions of particle spectra, dose, and dose equivalent in organs of interest for SPE spectra typical of those occurring in recent solar cycles. The large events of solar cycle 19 are found to have substantial increase in biological risk from alpha particles, including a large increase in secondary neutron production from alpha particle breakup.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗

NASA NTRS2016

Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders: Evidence Report

In April 2010, President Obama declared a space pioneering goal for the United States in general and NASA in particular. "Fifty years after the creation of NASA, our goal is no longer just a destination to reach. Our goal is the capacity for people to work and learn and operate and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite." Thus NASA's Strategic Objective 1.1 emerged as "expand human presence into the solar system and to the surface of Mars to advance exploration, science, innovation, benefits to humanity, and international collaboration" (NASA 2015b). Any space flight, be it of long or short duration, occurs in an extreme environment that has unique stressors. Even with excellent selection methods, the potential for behavioral problems among space flight crews remain a threat to mission success. Assessment of factors that are related to behavioral health can help minimize the chances of distress and, thus, reduce the likelihood of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders arising within a crew. Similarly, countermeasures that focus on prevention and treatment can mitigate the cognitive or behavioral conditions that, should they arise, would impact mission success. Given the general consensus that longer duration, isolation, and confined missions have a greater risk for behavioral health ensuring crew behavioral health over the long term is essential. Risk, which within the context of this report is assessed with respect to behavioral health and performance, is addressed to deter development of cognitive and behavioral degradations or psychiatric conditions in space flight and analog populations, and to monitor, detect, and treat early risk factors, predictors and other contributing factors. Based on space flight and analog evidence, the average incidence rate of an adverse behavioral health event occurring during a space mission is relatively low for the current conditions. While mood and anxiety disturbances have occurred, no behavioral emergencies have been reported to date in space flight. Anecdotal and empirical evidence indicate that the likelihood of an adverse cognitive or behavioral condition or psychiatric disorder occurring greatly increases with the length of a mission. Further, while cognitive, behavioral, or psychiatric conditions might not immediately and directly threaten mission success, such conditions can, and do, adversely impact individual and crew health, welfare, and performance.

Slack, Kelley J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Role of Analysis and Testing in the Service Life Assessment of Ion Engines

Experience from tests and flights and engineering analysis represent the two sources of information on which to base conclusions on the reliability or failure risk of aerospace flight systems. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace flight systems or components. The limitations of testing in evaluating failure risk are discussed and an alternate statistical approach which relies on both test experience and analysis to quantitatively assess reliability is outlined. The implementation of this methodology in the service life assessment of ion thrusters is discussed and examples of failure modes being addressed in the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program are given.

Ion↗

NASA NTRS2003

Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

NASA Program Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2001

The risk of renal stone formation during and after long duration space flight

BACKGROUND: The formation of a renal stone during space flight may have serious negative effects on the health of the crewmember and the success of the mission. Urinary biochemical factors and the influence of dietary factors associated with renal stone development were assessed during long duration Mir Space Station missions. METHODS: Twenty-four-hour urine samples were collected prior to, during and following long duration space flight. The relative urinary supersaturation of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were determined. RESULTS: Changes in the urinary biochemistry of crewmembers during long duration spaceflight demonstrated increases in the supersaturation of the stone-forming salts. In-flight hypercalciuria was evident in a number of individual crewmembers and 24-hour dietary fluid intake and urine volume were significantly lower. During flight, there was a significant increase in brushite supersaturation. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest acute effects of space flight and postflight changes in the urinary biochemistry favoring increased crystallization in the urine. The effects of dietary intake, especially fluid intake, may have a significant impact on the potential for renal stone formation. Efforts are now underway to assess the efficacy of a countermeasure to mitigate the increased risk.

manned↗