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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Rapid Development on Soil CO2 Efflux in a Cellulosic Biofuel Stand

As awareness of climate change increases, the need for carbon neutral fuel sources is growing. Lignocellulosic biofuel derived from pine trees has been suggested as one potential energy source; however, it requires more research before its efficacy for climate change mitigation can be determined. Due to the large share of forest carbon held in soils and the extensive area of pine plantations in the southeast U.S., a better understanding of plantation soil carbon dynamics is critical for biofuel carbon accounting. This study evaluated the effects of canopy development and productivity on soil CO2 efflux, a proxy for soil respiration (Rs), in an intensively managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stand over a period from May 2015 to December 2019. We found that leaf area index (LAI) and gross ecosystem production (GEP), as well as meteorological variables, had significant effects on Rs, but that both overall Rs and soil carbon pools did not increase over the course of the study. We thus hypothesize that GEP and LAI had intra-annual effects on Rs, and that the lack of change in Rs is the result of an increase in autotrophic respiration (Ra) that offset a decrease in decomposition of the previous stand’s organic matter.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gross primary production (GPP) and red solar induced fluorescence (SIF) respond differently to light and seasonal environmental conditions in a subalpine conifer forest

The phenology of montane conifer forests is likely to shift in response to climate change and altered seasonal dynamics of light, temperature, and moisture. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is expected to provide substantial improvement for mapping temporal changes in evergreen gross primary production (GPP) over greenness-based remote sensing indices. The utility of SIF to monitor seasonal changes in the phenology of conifer photosynthesis depends on the degree to which GPP and SIF respond in synchrony to key environmental drivers. However, to what extent SIF and GPP become decoupled by responding differently to the combined effects of light and other environmental conditions remains unknown. The goal of this study was to characterize the responses of GPP and SIFred to a suite of environmental drivers at the half-hour time scale and determine how these relationships change across seasons. We analyzed one year of tower-based SIFred and eddy covariance-derived GPP data from a conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado. We compared the light responses of GPP and SIFred across the year, finding that SIFred increased in response to light earlier in the year than did GPP. The light response of GPP had a positive temperature dependence in spring, and this dependency reversed in summer due to increased evaporative demand, while the light response of SIFred was less temperature dependent. Using artificial neural network ensemble analysis, we found that from spring to summer, SIFred did not exhibit a parallel response to the seasonally dynamic temperature and moisture controls on GPP. In summer SIFred was not correlated with canopy conductance, suggesting that SIF is less sensitive to stomatal control than GPP. Furthermore, our results suggest that, in conifers, photosystems begin to activate in spring prior to when water becomes available for photosynthesis, presenting a challenge for the use of SIF as a phenological indicator in conifer forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tower-Based Remote Sensing Reveals Mechanisms Behind a Two-phased Spring Transition in a Mixed-Species Boreal Forest

The boreal forest is a major contributor to the global climate system, therefore, reducing uncertainties in how the forest will respond to a changing climate is critical. One source of uncertainty is the timing and drivers of the spring transition. Remote sensing can provide important information on this transition, but persistent foliage greenness, seasonal snow cover, and a high prevalence of mixed forest stands (both deciduous and evergreen species) complicate interpretation of these signals. We collected tower-based remotely sensed data (reflectance-based vegetation indices and Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence [SIF]), stem radius measurements, gross primary productivity, and environmental conditions in a boreal mixed forest stand. Evaluation of this data set shows a two-phased spring transition. The first phase is the reactivation of photosynthesis and transpiration in evergreens, marked by an increase in relative SIF, and is triggered by thawed stems, warm air temperatures, and increased available soil moisture. The second phase is a reduction in bulk photoprotective pigments in evergreens, marked by an increase in the Chlorophyll-Carotenoid Index. Deciduous leaf-out occurs during this phase, marked by an increase in all remotely sensed metrics. The second phase is controlled by soil thaw. Our results demonstrate that remote sensing metrics can be used to detect specific physiological changes in boreal tree species during the spring transition. The two-phased transition explains inconsistencies in remote sensing estimates of the timing and drivers of spring recovery. Our results imply that satellite-based observations will improve by using a combination of vegetation indices and SIF, along with species distribution information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data from a throughfall exclusion experiment: Fine root dynamics, morphology, chemistry, and AMF colonization across four lowland Panamanian forests

Fine roots regulate forest nutrient, carbon, and water cycling, yet their variation within and among tropical forests remains under-characterized. We quantified root productivity, disappearance, and stocks to 1 m using minirhizotron imaging, and we measured morphology, elemental composition [root carbon (C), root nitrogen (N), root phosphorus (P)], and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) colonization to 20 cm using ingrowth cores and sequential coring. Sampling took place in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests (32 plots; 8 per forest) from 2018 through 2022 under control and throughfall-exclusion (drought) treatments in the Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED) experiment.The dataset is presented as an Excel workbook with six tabs. The first tab is the data dictionary. Tab S1 contains ingrowth-core production and mortality, morphology and soil moisture. Tab S2 contains sequential-coring standing stocks with associated morphology and soil moisture. Tab S3 contains minirhizotron row data records to 1 m depth, including per-frame root length and diameter, normalized length metrics, and session timing. Tab S4 contains AMF colonization. Tab S5 contains fine-root chemistry at 0–10 cm, reporting %P, %C, %N, and C:N for samples collected via ingrowth cores and sequential-coring standing stocks. CSV mirrors for each tab are provided, and a KML file supplies coordinates for all 32 plots.Key variables span live and dead fine-root biomass (and coarse fractions where applicable), specific root length (SRL) and area (SRA), diameter, root tissue density (RTD), soil moisture, AMF colonization, root %N, %C, %P, and C:N, along with minirhizotron root length and diameter. Depth, season, treatment, and plot/site identifiers are included to support cross-tab integration and analysis from 0–100 cm (minirhizotron) and 0–20 cm (cores).Units are reported in-column and missing values are coded as NA. No special software is required to open or use the files (Excel, CSV, and KML compatible).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling spatial patterns of longleaf pine needle dispersal using long-term data

Abstract Background Predicting patterns of fire behavior and effects in frequent fire forests relies on an understanding of fine-scale spatial patterns of available fuels. Leaf litter is a significant canopy-derived fine fuel in fire-maintained forests. Litter dispersal is dependent on foliage production, stand structure, and wind direction, but the relative importance of these factors is unknown. Results Using a 10-year litterfall dataset collected within eighteen 4-ha longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris Mill.) plots varying in canopy spatial pattern, we compared four spatially explicit models of annual needle litter dispersal: a model based only on basal area, an overstory abundance index (OAI) model, both isotropic and anisotropic litter kernel models, and a null model that assumed no spatial relationship. The best model was the anisotropic model (R 2 = 0.656) that incorporated tree size, location, and prevailing wind direction, followed by the isotropic model (R 2 = 0.612), basal area model (R 2 = 0.488), OAI model (R 2 = 0.416), and the null model (R 2 = 0.08). Conclusions As with previous studies, the predictive capability of the litter models was robust when internally validated with a subset of the original dataset (R 2 = 0.196–0.549); however, the models were less robust when challenged with an independent dataset (R 2 = 0.122–0.319) from novel forest stands. Our model validation underscores the need for rigorous tests with independent, external datasets to confirm the validity of litter dispersal models. These models can be used in the application of prescribed fire to estimate fuel distribution and loading, as well as aid in the fine tuning of fire behavior models to better understand fire outcomes across a range of forest canopy structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Near-canopy horizontal concentration heterogeneity of semivolatile oxygenated organic compounds and implications for 2-methyltetrols primary emissions

Semivolatile oxygenated organic compounds (SV-OVOCs) are important atmospheric species, in particular for the production and chemistry of atmospheric particulate matter and related impacts on air quality and climate. In this study, SV-OVOCs were collected in the horizontal plane of the roughness layer over the tropical forest in the central Amazon during the wet season of 2018. A sampler mounted to a copter-type, hovering unmanned aerial vehicle was used. Underlying the collection region, a plateau forest transitioned into a slope forest across several hundred meters. The concentrations of pinonic and pinic acids, which are monoterpene oxidation products, had no statistical difference over the two forests. By comparison, across the study period, differences in the concentration of 2-methyltetrols, which are products of isoprene oxidation, ranged from -70% to +480% over the two forests. The chemical lifetime of 2-methyltetrols in the atmosphere is sufficiently long that heterogeneity in the isoprene emission rate from the two forests followed by atmospheric oxidation does not explain the concentration heterogeneity of 2-methyltetrols. Standing waves and local meteorology also cannot account for the heterogeneity. Of the possibilities considered, the most plausible explanation is the direct emission from the forest of 2-methyltetrols produced through biological processes within the plants. Under this explanation, the rate of direct SV-OVOC emissions should be modulated by forest type and related environmental stressors. Direct emissions of SV-OVOCs should be more broadly considered for constraining and improving models of atmospheric composition, transport, and chemistry over tropical forests.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Postfire Biogeochemical Processes: Implications to Source Water Quality in Fire-Influenced Watersheds

Forested watersheds are instrumental in providing purified and reliable water to millions of people worldwide. The changing climate has increased the frequency and severity of global fire events. Forested watersheds and their ecosystem functions are greatly disrupted during fire activity. Postfire concerns in forested watersheds include unpredictable and potentially simultaneous alterations in source water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes. Here, the degree of fire severity can complexly modify water quality through the production of fire-transformed constituents on the burned forest floor (i.e., nutrients, metal(loid)s, dissolved organic matter, and the formation of disinfection byproducts). Correspondingly, fire severity and postfire rainfall patterns can refine hydro-biogeochemical processes that influence the transport of the fire-transformed constituents (i.e., vegetation function, soil structure, hydrological pathways, and microbial communities). Postfire alterations to water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes introduce further complexity with varying temporal influence, which ranges from months to decades. As postfire water quality and watershed response research progresses, it is essential to homogenize interdisciplinary expertise to bridge knowledge gaps between fields ranging from forest ecology, hydrology, microbiology, and geochemistry. A multidisciplinary approach in wildfire research will facilitate a comprehensive perception of the diverse water quality risks associated with fire activity and mitigate fire concerns on a global level.

Disinfection Byproducts↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biomass supply chain equipment for renewable fuels production: A review

The production of renewable fuels is a critical component of global strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, the collection of raw materials for its production can provide added benefits such as reduction of wildfire risk, additional income for farmers, and decreased disposal costs. Although there is substantial literature on design and modeling of supply chains, the authors were unable to find a single reference with the information needed for the selection and cost estimation of each type of equipment involved in the supply chain. Therefore, the goal of this research is to gather information necessary for the construction and utilization of models that might drive the identification of a feasible supply chain to produce renewable fuels at a commercial scale. The primary objectives are to 1) understand the supply chain of critical feedstocks for renewable fuels production; 2) identify the equipment commercially available for collection and adequation of feedstock; and 3) consolidate information regarding equipment cost, energy consumption, and efficiency, as well as feedstock storage and transportation systems. This paper provides a compilation for five feedstock types studied for sustainable aviation fuel production: 1) agricultural residues and grasses, 2) forest residues, 3) urban wood waste, 4) oilseeds, 5) fats, oils & greases. All the technologies involved from the field to the gate of the preprocessing or conversion unit were reviewed. The information on fats, oils & greases supply chains and equipment purposely designed for forest thinning and pruning was very limited.

: Feedstock, Collection and Adequation, Renewable ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lignin Monomers from beyond the Canonical Monolignol Biosynthetic Pathway: Another Brick in the Wall

Lignin is conventionally defined as being formed by the oxidative polymerization of three main monolignols, p-coumaryl alcohol, coniferyl alcohol, and sinapyl alcohol, that are derived from the general phenylpropanoid biosynthetic pathway. Many other phenolic compounds that are also derived from the phenylpropanoid pathway are also known to perform as genuine lignin monomers in many plants, as is the case of the monolignol ester conjugates, phenolic compounds arising from the truncated biosynthesis of monolignols, or ferulate esters. Recent investigations, however, have indicated that phenolic compounds arising from beyond the canonical phenylpropanoid pathway, namely flavonoids, hydroxystilbenes, and hydroxycinnamic amides, may also behave as authentic lignin monomers and are incorporated into the lignin in some plants, further challenging the traditional definition of lignin. This is the case of the flavone tricin that is incorporated into the lignin of grasses and other monocots, the hydroxystilbene piceatannol (together with resveratrol and isorhapontigenin, at lower levels) that has been found in the lignins of palm fruit shells, their respective O-glucosides (astringin, piceid, and isorhapontin) that are present in the lignin of Norway spruce bark, or the ferulic amides feruloyltyramine, incorporated into the lignin of tobacco and potato tubers, and diferuloylputrescine, which appears to be incorporated into maize kernel lignin. These valuable compounds are potentially available in high amounts and at low cost and may be obtained from the waste products from the processing of agricultural or forest biomass.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Finally, our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

How, where, and why carbon (C) moves into and out of an ecosystem through time are long-standing questions in biogeochemistry. Here, we bring together hundreds of thousands of C-cycle observations at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA, a mid-latitude landscape dominated by 80–120-yr-old closed-canopy forests. These data answered four questions: (1) where and how much C is presently stored in dominant forest types; (2) what are current rates of C accrual and loss; (3) what biotic and abiotic factors contribute to variability in these rates; and (4) how has climate change affected the forest’s C cycle? Harvard Forest is an active C sink resulting from forest regrowth following land abandonment. Soil and tree biomass comprise nearly equal portions of existing C stocks. Net primary production (NPP) averaged 680–750 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 ; belowground NPP contributed 38–47% of the total, but with large uncertainty. Mineral soil C measured in the same inventory plots in 1992 and 2013 was too heterogeneous to detect change in soil-C pools; however, radiocarbon data suggest a small but persistent sink of 10–30 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . Net ecosystem production (NEP) in hardwood stands averaged ~300 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . NEP in hemlock-dominated forests averaged ~450 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 until infestation by the hemlock woolly adelgid turned these stands into a net C source. Since 2000, NPP has increased by 26%. For the period 1992–2015, NEP increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for ~30% of the increase in productivity. Interannual variations in GPP and NEP were also correlated with increases in red oak biomass, forest leaf area, and canopy-scale light-use efficiency. Compared to long-term global change experiments at the Harvard Forest, the C sink in regrowing biomass equaled or exceeded C cycle modifications imposed by soil warming, N saturation, and hemlock removal. Furthermore, the results of this synthesis and comparison to simulation models suggest that forests across the region are likely to accrue C for decades to come but may be disrupted if the frequency or severity of biotic and abiotic disturbances increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental warming and its legacy effects on root dynamics following two hurricane disturbances in a wet tropical forest

Abstract Tropical forests are expected to experience unprecedented warming and increases in hurricane disturbances in the coming decades; yet, our understanding of how these productive systems, especially their belowground component, will respond to the combined effects of varied environmental changes remains empirically limited. Here we evaluated the responses of root dynamics (production, mortality, and biomass) to soil and understory warming (+4°C) and after two consecutive tropical hurricanes in our in situ warming experiment in a tropical forest of Puerto Rico: Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE). We collected minirhizotron images from three warmed plots and three control plots of 12 m 2 . Following Hurricanes Irma and María in September 2017, the infrared heater warming treatment was suspended for repairs, which allowed us to explore potential legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery. We found that warming significantly reduced root production and root biomass over time. Following hurricane disturbance, both root biomass and production increased substantially across all plots; the root biomass increased 2.8‐fold in controls but only 1.6‐fold in previously warmed plots. This pattern held true for both herbaceous and woody roots, suggesting that the consistent antecedent warming conditions reduced root capacity to recover following hurricane disturbance. Root production and mortality were both related to soil ammonium nitrogen and microbial biomass nitrogen before and after the hurricanes. This experiment has provided an unprecedented look at the complex interactive effects of disturbance and climate change on the root component of a tropical forested ecosystem. A decrease in root production in a warmer world and slower root recovery after a major hurricane disturbance, as observed here, are likely to have longer‐term consequences for tropical forest responses to future global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The ecosystem wilting point defines drought response and recovery of a Quercus‐Carya forest

Abstract Soil and atmospheric droughts increasingly threaten plant survival and productivity around the world. Yet, conceptual gaps constrain our ability to predict ecosystem‐scale drought impacts under climate change. Here, we introduce the ecosystem wilting point (Ψ EWP ), a property that integrates the drought response of an ecosystem's plant community across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Specifically, Ψ EWP defines a threshold below which the capacity of the root system to extract soil water and the ability of the leaves to maintain stomatal function are strongly diminished. We combined ecosystem flux and leaf water potential measurements to derive the Ψ EWP of a Quercus‐Carya forest from an “ecosystem pressure–volume (PV) curve,” which is analogous to the tissue‐level technique. When community predawn leaf water potential (Ψ pd ) was above Ψ EWP (=−2.0 MPa), the forest was highly responsive to environmental dynamics. When Ψ pd fell below Ψ EWP , the forest became insensitive to environmental variation and was a net source of carbon dioxide for nearly 2 months. Thus, Ψ EWP is a threshold defining marked shifts in ecosystem functional state. Though there was rainfall‐induced recovery of ecosystem gas exchange following soaking rains, a legacy of structural and physiological damage inhibited canopy photosynthetic capacity. Although over 16 growing seasons, only 10% of Ψ pd observations fell below Ψ EWP , the forest is commonly only 2–4 weeks of intense drought away from reaching Ψ EWP , and thus highly reliant on frequent rainfall to replenish the soil water supply. We propose, based on a bottom‐up analysis of root density profiles and soil moisture characteristic curves, that soil water acquisition capacity is the major determinant of Ψ EWP , and species in an ecosystem require compatible leaf‐level traits such as turgor loss point so that leaf wilting is coordinated with the inability to extract further water from the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of pollen productivity and dispersal: How pollen assemblages in small lakes represent vegetation

Abstract Quantitative understanding of vegetation dynamics over timespans beyond a century remains limited. In this regard, the pollen‐based reconstruction of past vegetation enables unique research opportunities by quantifying changes in plant community compositions during hundreds to thousands of years. Critically, the methodological basis for most reconstruction approaches rests upon estimates of pollen productivity and dispersal. Previous studies, however, have reached contrasting conclusions concerning these estimates, which may be perceived to challenge the applicability and reliability of pollen‐based reconstruction. Here we show that conflicting estimates of pollen production and dispersal are, at least in part, artifacts of fixed assumptions of pollen dispersal and insufficient spatial resolution of vegetation data surrounding the pollen‐collecting lake. We implemented a Bayesian statistical model that related pollen assemblages in surface sediments of 33 small lakes (<2 ha) in the northeastern United States, with surrounding vegetation ranging from 10 1 to >10 5 m from the lake margin. Our analysis revealed three key insights. First, pollen productivity is largely conserved within taxa and across forest types. Second, when local (within a 1‐km radius) vegetation abundances are not considered, pollen‐source areas may be overestimated for some common taxa (Cupressaceae, Pinus , Quercus , and Tsuga ). Third, pollen dispersal mechanisms may differ between local and regional scales; this is missed by pollen‐dispersal models used in previous studies. These findings highlight the complex interactions between vegetation heterogeneity on the landscape and pollen dispersal. We suggest that, when estimating pollen productivity and dispersal, both detailed local and extended regional vegetation must be taken into account. Also, both deductive (mechanistic models) and inductive (statistical models) approaches are needed to better understand the emergent properties of pollen dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lawrence Graduate Research Scholar, Allegra Mayer, 2021 (Final Report)

Carbon storage in tropical forest soil depends on the balance between large C inputs from high rates of productivity, and high rates of soil C loss due to rapid decomposition rates. Disturbances to tropical forests, including severe hurricanes, could result in globally significant fluxes of C either to or from forest soils. Severe hurricane events are increasing in frequency in the tropics, yet the vulnerability of soil carbon to a frequent severe hurricane regime is unknown. By constraining a model with samples from before and after three major hurricanes within thirty years, this study examines the cycling of C between soil pools and with depth, under conditions marked by sudden organic matter pulses, rapid shifts in forest structure, and fast decomposition rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗