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At least 181 records · Page 10

Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 1: Winter

Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea level pressure, precipitation rate, 200 mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind, generated by two versions of the GISS climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computational grids and the specification of the sea surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal variations of the model fields are shown alongside maps showing the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed, and also summarized in tables according to geographic regions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 2: Summer

Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea-level pressure, precipitation rate, 200mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind generated by two versions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computation grids and the specification of the sea-surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal means of the model fields are shown alongside maps that show the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed and also summarized in tables according to geographic region.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Normal mode energetics and error analysis of GLA GCM simulations with different horizontal resolutions during a winter month

Comparative energetics is presented for a series of four general circulation model simulations for January 1979 conducted by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The simulations include cases of coarse and fine horizontal model resolutions with two slightly different initial conditions. Using a three-dimensional normal mode expansion, it is found that the gravity-mode energy levels are significantly reduced in the higher wavenumbers and in the higher-order internal vertical modes by the increase of horizontal model resolution.

Tanaka, H. L.↗

Regional earth-atmosphere energy balance estimates based on assimilations with a GCM

The Oort and Vonder Haar (1976) column-budget technique is presently used to evaluate the physical consistency and accuracy of regional earth-atmosphere energy balance estimates for (1) atmospheric budget terms, (2) net radiation at the top of the atmosphere, and (3) time tendency and flux divergence of energy, for Special Observing Periods of the FGGE year. It is found that, during winter, the midlatitude oceans supply large quantities of energy to the overlying atmosphere, which then transports the energy to the continental heat-sinks; the energy flows in the opposite direction during summer.

Alexander, Michael A.↗

Climate dynamics experiments using a GCM simulations

The study of surface-atmosphere interactions has begun with studies of the effect of altering the ocean and land boundaries. A ten year simulation of global climate using observed sea surface temperature anomalies has begun using the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1). The results for low resolution (R15) were computed for the first 8 years of the simulation and compared with the observed surface temperatures and the MSU (Microwave Sounding Unit) observations of tropospheric temperature. A simulation at higher resolution (T42) was done to ascertain the effect of interactive soil hydrology on the system response to an El Nino sea surface temperature perturbation. Initial analysis of this simulations was completed.

Fitzjarrald, Dan↗

Contributions to the implementation of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in the GLA GCM

The AS scheme in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model is used to address two fundamental problems of simulated cumulus convection and rainfall. The first problem is that of too much rainfall in the tropics at initial time and the second is the problem of too vigorous a hydrologic cycle in the tropics even after the initial adjustment period. A number of experiments were performed, including an investigation of the influence of the prescribed limiting values of critical cloud work formation (CCWF). It is concluded that the CCWF plays a useful role in the apportionment of the rainfall into convective and large-scale components. Related experiments reveal the nature of the interaction between atmospheric circulation and the cumulus processes.

Sud, Y. C.↗

The simulated Indian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study

A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted in an attempt to understand and correct deficiencies in the simulation of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon with a global atmospheric general circulation model. The seasonal mean precipitation is less than half that observed. This poor simulation in seasonal integrations is independent of the choice of initial conditions and global sea surface temperature data used. Experiments are performed to test the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon simulation to changes in orography, vegetation, soil, wetness, and cloudiness. The authors find that the deficiency of the model precipitation simulation may be attributed to the use of an enhanced orography in the integrations. Replacement of this orography with a mean orography results in a much more realistic simulation of Indian monsoon circulation and rainfall. Experiments with a linear primitive equation model on the sphere suggest that this striking improvement is due to modulations of the orographically forced waves in the lower troposphere. This improvement in the monsoon simulation is due to the kinematic and dynamical effects of changing the topography, rather than the thermal effects, which were minimal. The magnitude of the impact on the Indian monsoon of the other sensitivity experiments varied considerably, but was consistently less than the impact of using the mean orography. However, results from the soil moisture sensitivity experiments suggest a possibly important role for soil moisture in simulating tropical precipitation, including that associated with the Indian monsoon.

Fennessy, M. J.↗

Sensitivity of a GCM climate simulation to differences in continental versus maritime cloud drop size

Extensive observations indicate a distinct difference between maritime and continental effective drop size, r(sub e), for warm clouds. The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2) is used to explore the sensitivity of differentiating between continental and maritime r(sub e) on the simulated climate. The results of this study indicate that the smaller drop size over continents leads to a reduction of surface-absorbed solar radiation from 20 to 60 W/sq m. This reduction in surface solar flux leads to a cooling of the continents by up to -3.5 K. The reduction in surface solar flux and temperature also leads to a reduction in latent heat flux and precipitation over land. In the January simulation, there is a significant shift in tropical precipitation associated with the Australian monsoon. This shift leads to a response in the extra tropical geopotential height field over the western United States. All of these changes reduce biases in the current version of CCM2.

Kiehl, J. T.↗

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Slingo, Julia↗

Evaluation of a GCM cirrus parameterization using satellite observations

This study applies a simple yet effective methodology to validate a general circulation model parameterization of cirrus ice water path. The methodology combines large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields from operational analyses with prescribed occurrence of cirrus clouds from satellite observations to simulate a global distribution of ice water path. The predicted cloud properties are then compared with the corresponding satellite measurements of visible optical depth and infrared cloud emissivity to evaluate the reliability of the parameterization. This methodology enables the validation to focus strictly on the water loading side of the parameterization by eliminating uncertainties involved in predicting the occurrence of cirrus internally within the parameterization. Overall the parameterization performs remarkably well in capturing the observed spatial patterns of cirrus optical properties. Spatial correlations between the observed and the predicted optical depths are typically greater than 0.7 for the tropics and northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The good spatial agreement largely stems from the strong dependence of the ice water path upon the temperature of the environment in which the clouds form. Poorer correlations (r approximately 0.3) are noted over the southern hemisphere midlatitudes, suggesting that additional processes not accounted for by the parameterization may be important there. Quantitative evaluation of the parameterization is hindered by the present uncertainty in the size distribution of cirrus ice particles. Consequently, it is difficult to determine if discrepancies between the observed and the predicted optical properties are attributable to errors in the parameterized ice water path or to geographic variations in effective radii.

Soden, B. J.↗

The Aggregate Representation of Terrestrial Land Covers Within Global Climate Models (GCM)

This project had four initial objectives: (1) to create a realistic coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the aggregate description of heterogeneous surfaces; (2) to develop a simple heuristic model of surface-atmosphere interactions; (3) using the above models, to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic cover and meteorological conditions; and (4) to reconcile biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) land covers with those that can be recognized from space; Our progress in meeting these objectives can be summarized as follows. Objective 1: The first objective was achieved in the first year of the project by coupling the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with a proven two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting model, BATS-ABL, is described in detail in a Masters thesis and reported in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology Objective 2: The potential value of the heuristic model was re-evaluated early in the project and a decision was made to focus subsequent research around modeling studies with the BATS-ABL model. The value of using such coupled surface-atmosphere models in this research area was further confirmed by the success of the Tucson Aggregation Workshop. Objective 3: There was excellent progress in using the BATS-ABL model to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic covers. The foci of attention have been the site of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas and one of the study sites of the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study (ABRACOS) near the city of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. These two sites were selected because of the ready availability of relevant field data to validate and initiate the BATS-ABL model. The results of these tests are given in a Masters thesis, and reported in two papers. Objective 4: Progress far exceeded original expectations not only in reconciling BATS land covers with those that can be recognized from space, but also in then applying remotely-sensed land cover data to map aggregate values of BATS parameters for heterogeneous covers and interpreting these parameters in terms of surface-atmosphere exchanges.

Shuttleworth, W. James↗

GCM Hindcasts for SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions

The ability to forecast seasonal climate is of great practical interest. One of the most obvious benefits would be agriculture, for which various preparations (planting, machinery, irrigation, manpower) would be enabled. The expectation of being able to make such forecasts far enough in advance (on the order of 9 months) hinges on components of the system with the longest persistence or predictability. The mixed results of El Nino forecasts has raised the hope that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) fall into this category. For agriculturally-relevant forecasts to be made, and utilized, requires several conditions. The SST in the regions that affect agricultural areas must be forecast successfully, many months in advance. The climate response to such sea surface temperatures must then be ascertained, either through the use of historical empirical studies or models (e.g., GCMS). For practical applications, the agricultural production must be strongly influenced by climate, and farmers on either the local level or through commercial concerns must be able to adjust to using such forecasts. In a continuing series of papers, we will explore each of these components. This article concerns the question of utilizing SST to forecast the climate in several regions of agricultural production. We optimize the possibility of doing so successfully by using observed SST in a hindcast mode (i.e., a perfect forecast), and we also use the globally observed values (rather than just those from the tropical Pacific, for which predictability has been shown). This then is the ideal situation; in subsequent papers we will explore degrading the results by using only tropical Pacific SSTs, and then using only

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

A Catchment-Based Approach to Modeling Land Surface Processes in a GCM: Parameter Estimation and Model Demonstration - Part 2

The viability of a new catchment-based land surface model (LSM) developed for use with general circulation models is demonstrated. First, simple empirical functions -- tractable enough for operational use in the LSM -- are established that faithfully capture the control of topography on the subgrid variability of soil moisture and the surface water budget, as predicted by theory. Next, the full LSM is evaluated offline. Using forcing and validation datasets developed for PILPS Phase 2c, the minimally calibrated model is shown to reproduce observed evaporation and runoff fluxes successfully in the Red-Arkansas River Basin. A complementary idealized study that employs the range of topographic variability seen over North America demonstrates that the simulated surface water budget does vary strongly with topography, which can, by itself, induce variations in annual evaporation as high as 20%.

Ducharne, Agnes↗

A Catchment-Based Approach to Modeling Land Surface Processes in a GCM: Model Structure - Part 1

A new strategy for modeling the land surface component of the climate system is described. The strategy is motivated by an arguable deficiency in most state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs), namely the disproportionately higher emphasis given to the formulation of one-dimensional, vertical physics relative to the treatment of horizontal heterogeneity in surface properties -- particularly subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on runoff generation. The new strategy calls for the partitioning of the continental surface into a mosaic of hydrologic catchments, delineated through analysis of high-resolution surface elevation data. The effective "grid" used for the land surface is therefore not specified by the overlying atmospheric grid. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is related to characteristics of the topography and to three bulk soil moisture variables through a well-established model of catchment processes. This modeled variability allows the partitioning of the catchment into several areas representing distinct hydrological regimes, wherein distinct (regime-specific) evaporation and runoff parameterizations are applied. Care is taken to ensure that the deficiencies of the catchment model in regions of little to moderate topography are minimized.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM: Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols - Part 1

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Perlwitz, Jan↗

Atlas of Seasonal Means Simulated by the NSIPP 1 Atmospheric GCM

This atlas documents the climate characteristics of version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The AGCM includes an interactive land model (the Mosaic scheme), and is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The results presented here are based on a 20-year (December 1979-November 1999) "ANIIP-style" integration of the AGCM in which the monthly-mean sea-surface temperature and sea ice are specified from observations. The climate characteristics of the AGCM are compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalyses. Other verification data include Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSNM) total precipitable water, the Xie-Arkin estimates of precipitation, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements of short and long wave radiation. The atlas is organized by season. The basic quantities include seasonal mean global maps and zonal and vertical averages of circulation, variance/covariance statistics, and selected physics quantities.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Diurnal Variability of the Hydrologic Cycle and Radiative Fluxes: Comparisons Between Observation and a GCM

The simulated diurnal cycle is in many ways an ideal test bed for new physical parameterizations. The purpose of this paper is to compare observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Experiment, and the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study with the diurnal variability of the Amazonian hydrologic cycle and radiative energy budget as simulated by the Colorado State University general circulation model, and to evaluate improvements and deficiencies of the model physics. The model uses a prognostic cumulus kinetic energy (CKE) to relax the quasi-equilibrium closure of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. A parameter, alpha, is used to relate the CKE to the cumulus mass flux. This parameter is expected to vary with cloud depth, mean shear, and the level of convective activity, but up to now a single constant value for all cloud types has been used. The results of the present study show clearly that this approach cannot yield realistic simulations of both the diurnal cycle and the monthly mean climate state. Improved results are obtained using a version of the model in which alpha is permitted to vary with cloud depth.

Lin, Xin↗

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Mocko, David M.↗