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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near real-time air quality forecasts using the NASA GEOS model

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces high-resolution global forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke. The assimilation system is being expanded to include chemically reactive trace gases. We discuss current capabilities of the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to improve atmospheric composition modeling and possible future directions, notably incorporating new observations (TROPOMI, geostationary satellites) and machine learning techniques. We show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid-scale variability, which further improves model estimates at a given observation site.

Air Quality Forecast↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗
NASA NTRS2020

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗
NASA NTRS2022

Limitations in Representation of Physical Processes Prevents Successful Simulation of PM2.5 During KORUS-AQ

High levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in East Asia often exceed local air quality standards. Observations from the Korea United States-Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May and June 2016 showed that development of extreme pollution (haze) occurred through a combination of long-range transport and favorable meteorological conditions that enhanced local production of PM2.5. Atmospheric models often have difficulty simulating PM2.5 chemical composition during haze, which is of concern for the development of successful control measures. We use observations from KORUS-AQ to examine the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate PM2.5 composition throughout the campaign and identify the mechanisms driving the pollution event. At the surface, the model underestimates sulfate by -64% but overestimates nitrate by +36%. The largest underestimate in sulfate occurs during the pollution event, where models typically struggle to generate elevated sulfate concentrations due to missing heterogeneous chemistry in aerosol liquid water in the polluted boundary layer. Hourly surface observations show that the model nitrate bias is driven by an overestimation of the nighttime peak. In the model, nitrate formation is limited by the supply of nitric acid, which is biased by +100% against aircraft observations. We hypothesize that this is due to a large missing sink, which we implement here as a factor of five increase in dry deposition. We show that the resulting increased deposition velocity is consistent with observations of total nitrate as a function of photochemical age. The model does not account for factors such as the urban heat island effect or the heterogeneity of the built-up urban landscape resulting in insufficient model turbulence and surface area over the study area that likely results in insufficient dry deposition. Other species such as NH3 could be similarly affected but were not measured during the campaign. Nighttime production of nitrate is driven by NO2 hydrolysis in the model, while observations show that unexpectedly elevated nighttime ozone (not present in the model) should result in N2O5 hydrolysis as the primary pathway. The model is unable to represent nighttime ozone due to an overly rapid collapse of the afternoon mixed layer and excessive titration by NO. We attribute this to missing nighttime heating driving deeper nocturnal mixing that would be expected to occur in a city like Seoul. This urban heating is not considered in air quality models run at large enough scales to treat both local chemistry and long-range transport. Key model failures in simulating nitrate, mainly overestimated daytime nitric acid, incorrect representation of nighttime chemistry, and an overly shallow and insufficiently turbulent nighttime mixed layer, exacerbate the model’s inability to simulate the buildup of PM2.5 during haze pollution. To address the underestimate in sulfate most evident during the haze event, heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 is added to the model which previously only considered aqueous production of sulfate from SO2 in cloud water. Implementing a simple parameterization of this chemistry improves the model abundance of sulfate but degrades the SO2 simulation implying that emissions are underestimated. We find that improving model simulations of sulfate has direct relevance to determining local vs. transboundary contributions to PM2.5. During the haze pollution event, the inclusion of heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 decreases the fraction of PM2.5 attributable to long-range transport from 66% to 54%. Locally-produced sulfate increased from 1% to 25% of locally-produced PM2.5, implying that local emissions controls would have a larger effect than previously thought. However, this additional uptake of SO2 is coupled to the model nitrate prediction which affects the aerosol liquid water abundance and chemistry driving sulfate-nitrate-ammonium partitioning. An additional simulation of the haze pollution with heterogeneous uptake of SO2 to aerosol and simple improvements to the model nitrate simulation results in 30% less sulfate due to 40% less nitrate and aerosol water, and results in an underestimate of sulfate during the haze event. Future studies need to better consider the impact of model physical processes such as dry deposition and nighttime boundary layer mixing on the simulation of nitrate and the effect of improved nitrate simulations on the overall simulation of secondary inorganic aerosol (sulfate+nitrate+ammonium) in East Asia. Foreign emissions are rapidly changing, increasing the need to understand the impact of local emissions on PM2.5 in South Korea to ensure continued air quality improvements.

Katherine R. Travis↗
NASA NTRS2021

Improving Surface PM2.5 Forecasts in the United States Using an Ensemble of Chemical Transport Model Outputs: 2. Bias Correction with Satellite Data for Rural Areas

This work serves as the second of a two-part study to improve surface PM2.5 forecasts in the continental U.S. through the integrated use of multi satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products (MODIS Terra/Aqua and VIIRS DT/DB), multichemical transport model (CTM) (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem, and CMAQ) outputs, and ground observations. In Part I of the study, an ensemble Kalman filter (KF) technique using three CTM outputs and ground observations was developed to correct forecast bias and generate a single best forecast of PM2.5 for next day over non rural areas that have surface PM2.5 measurements in the proximity of 125 km. Here, with AOD data, we extended the bias correction into rural areas where the closest air quality monitoring station is at least 125–300 km away. First, we ensembled all of satellite AOD products to yield the single best AOD. Second, we corrected daily PM2.5 in rural areas from multiple models through the AOD spatial pattern between these areas and non rural areas, referred to as “extended ground truth” or EGT, for the present day. Lastly, we applied the KF technique to reduce the forecast bias for next day using the EGT. Our results find that the ensemble of bias-corrected daily PM2.5 from three CTMs for both today and next day show the best performance. Together, the two-part study develops a multimodel and multi-AOD bias-correction technique that has the potential to improve PM2.5 forecasts in both rural and non rural areas in near real time, and be readily implemented at state levels.

Huanxin Zhang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TROPOMI Methane Validation in the GeoCarb Domain

Objective: GeoCarb validation •Purpose: •Do the four TCCON sites in the GeoCarb domain characterize satellite validation? •Method: •Assess the error estimates globally vs. in the GeoCarb domain •Assess the use of GML/DOE aircraft for CH4 validation •Systematic error estimate (from Kulawik, 2016): •+ regional bias (stdevof average bias versus validation at each station) •+ correlated error (stdev of daily average versus validation) •-co-location error (above quantities for model@satelliteminus model@valid) •-validation error (systematic error of validation estimates, e.g. model extension) Aircraft validation error •CH4 profile extension error estimate: 7 ppb •Extend aircraft observations to the top of the atmosphere with different model configurations •CAMS, scaling to stratosphere, then taking stratosphere •Extend by repeating top aircraft value to the troposphere, then taking CAMS •Extend with GEOS-Chem run (from 2010). •Difference CAMS-Scale vs. CAMS-Tropo: •3.6 +-5.5 ppb •Systematic error: 6.6 ppb •Extending aircraft to tropopause is blatantly wrong, but these two have the same stratosphere. •Difference CAMS-Scale vs. GEOS-Scale: •6.2 +-8.7 ppb •Do not consider bias since model is 10 years off. Systematic error ~8.7 ppb. •Estimate of systematic error from profile extension (possibly underestimated, resulting in possibly higher TROPOMI error estimate) •7 ppb •Would likely vary some by season, site, other conditions •Aircraft measurement error: 1 ppb •1 ppb from measurement error3

TROMPOMI↗
NASA NTRS2022

GMAO Office Note No. 17 (Version 1.3) File Specification for GEOS-CF Products

The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (about 25 km). This GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system combines the GEOS weather analysis and forecasting system with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (Bey et al., 2001; Keller et al., 2014; Long et al., 2015) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Full model description and evaluation of the GEOS-CF tropospheric simulation and forecast skill is given in Keller et al. (2021). For evaluation of GEOS-CF stratospheric composition see Knowland et al. (2021).

GEOS-CF↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of GEO and LEO Satellite Retrievals in WRF-Chem (15 km and 4 km) with ‘Top-Down’ Emissions Estimation

We are constraining concentrations and emissions for all criteria pollutants (CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5) with WRF-Chem/DART in applications for FRAPPE (15-km grid) and COLORADO (4-km grid). Our results show that: (i) dynamic emissions estimation at medium resolutions (15 km) improves forecast skill; (ii) At high resolutions, the results look good, but we do not have validation data; (iii) for what may be the first time, we assimilate O3 retrieval profiles in a regional model. The problem is that the averaging kernels generally extend above the upper boundary of regional models. We use O3 upper boundary conditions from the global model to solve that problem; and (iv) In the high resolution experiments, we document the potential benefits of assimilating TEMPO O3 profile and NO2 tropospheric column retrievals. Here, we assimilate proxy TEMPO retrievals from a GEOS-Chem nature run, so there’s a conceptual problem due to the potential bias of the proxy retrievals, but the point is to demonstrate our ability to assimilate TEMPO and identify its potential impacts.

Chemical data assimilation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Forecasting Capabilities for Air Quality

An overview of GEOS Forecasting capabilities for Air Quality, showing the evolution from GEOS with GOCART to GEOS with GEOS-Chem. Ways to access GEOS for research scientists and engaged community members will be given, as well as examples on how the GEOS-CF forecasts can be bias-corrected and downscaled for decision making processes.

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces high-resolution analysis and forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. Since 2019, the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model provides global near-real-time historical estimates and daily 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km) from the surface up to the lower mesosphere. This composition forecast system (“GEOS-CF”) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to deliver detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants, including the policy-relevant species such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The GEOS-CF is a tool for scientists and the public health community. This presentation will cover 1) an overview of the GEOS-CF modeling framework and data/visualization access, 2) examples of current and future applications to support NASA missions (e.g., a priori for trace gas retrievals by TEMPO, ground-based instrument teams and field campaigns), and 3) research and development activities as the GEOS-CF system continues to evolve to include multi-constituent data assimilation, near-real time emission adjustment estimates, down-scaling methods to urban-scale, and data access on Google Earth Engine, Amazon Web Services, and other platforms to integrate our state-of-the-science air quality information onto platforms used by stakeholders, air quality managers, and the public.

K. Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Forecasting Capabilities for Air Quality

An overview of GEOS Forecasting capabilities for Air Quality, showing the evolution from GEOS with GOCART to GEOS with GEOS-Chem. Ways to access GEOS for research scientists and engaged community members will be given, as well as examples on how the GEOS-CF forecasts can be bias-corrected and downscaled for decision making processes.

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS-CF: Overview, Applications, Future Direction

Since 2019, the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been used to generate global, near-real-time estimates and daily five-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km) from the surface up to the lower mesosphere. This composition forecast system (“GEOS-CF”) combines the GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to deliver detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants, including the policy-relevant species such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Because GEOS-CF includes atmospheric levels up through the stratosphere, this system has been leveraged to support the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite mission and provide stratospheric intrusion alerts to ground-based monitoring stations. We will present recent advances to GEOS-CF which includes assimilation of satellite observations to produce more accurate model analyses. We further discuss our future plans for a composition reanalysis.

K. Emma Knowland↗
DOE OSTI2026

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022

Black carbon (BC) aerosol is an important driver of Arctic warming, and China used to be a major contributor to the Arctic BC burden through long-range atmospheric transport. Here we show that China's contribution declined significantly from 2009 to 2022, primarily due to reductions in domestic BC emissions following the implementation of clean air policies. Global chemistry-transport model simulations indicate a relative decline of ∼3% yr −1 ( p < 0.05) in China's Arctic BC contribution, exceeding the decrease rate in the underlying emission inventory. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that climate change-induced shifts in atmospheric transport may have amplified this decline. Observations of aerosol absorption coefficients (σ ap ) at Arctic background observatories revealed steeper declines in σ ap when modeled China-to-total BC ratios were higher. Moreover, σ ap correlated positively with modeled BC from China, with stronger relationships as the modeled China-to-total BC ratios increased. Together, these results provide robust evidence that China's emission reductions have diminished its role in Arctic BC, contributing an estimated 0.02 W m −2 decrease in the direct radiative effect during the Arctic haze season.

GEOS-chem model↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of NO2 Profile Shape in OMI Tropospheric NO2 Retrievals

Nitrogen oxides (NOx NO + NO2) are key actors in air quality and climate change. Tropospheric NO2 columns from the nadir-viewing satellite sensors have been widely used to understand sources and chemistry of NOx. We have implemented several improvements to the operational algorithm developed at NASA GSFC and retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns. We present tropospheric NO2 validation studies of the new OMI Standard Product version 2.1 using ground-based and in-situ aircraft measurements. We show how vertical profile of scattering weight and a-priori NO2 profile shapes, which are taken from chemistry-transport models, affect air mass factor (AMF) and therefore tropospheric NO2 retrievals. Users can take advantage of scattering weights information that is made available in the operational NO2 product. Improved tropospheric NO2 data retrieved using thoroughly evaluated high spatial resolution NO2 profiles are helpful to test models.

OMI↗