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NASA NTRS2007

Validation and Determination of Ice Water Content - Radar Reflectivity Relationships during CRYSTAL-FACE: Flight Requirements for Future Comparisons

In order for clouds to be more accurately represented in global circulation models (GCM), there is need for improved understanding of the properties of ice such as the total water in ice clouds, called ice water content (IWC), ice particle sizes and their shapes. Improved representation of clouds in models will enable GCMs to better predict for example, how changes in emissions of pollutants affect cloud formation and evolution, upper tropospheric water vapor, and the radiative budget of the atmosphere that is crucial for climate change studies. An extensive cloud measurement campaign called CRYSTAL-FACE was conducted during Summer 2002 using instrumented aircraft and a variety of instruments to measure properties of ice clouds. This paper deals with the measurement of IWC using the Harvard water vapor and total water instruments on the NASA WB-57 high-altitude aircraft. The IWC is measured directly by these instruments at the altitude of the WB-57, and it is compared with remote measurements from the Goddard Cloud Radar System (CRS) on the NASA ER-2. CRS measures vertical profiles of radar reflectivity from which IWC can be estimated at the WB-57 altitude. The IWC measurements obtained from the Harvard instruments and CRS were found to be within 20-30% of each other. Part of this difference was attributed to errors associated with comparing two measurements that are not collocated in time an space since both aircraft were not in identical locations. This study provides some credibility to the Harvard and CRS-derived IWC measurements that are in general difficult to validate except through consistency checks using different measurement approaches.

Sayres, D. S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars Global Climate Modeling.

Scientists use Global Climate Models (GCMs) to better under the current and past climate states of terrestrial (solid surface) bodies in our solar system and beyond, and the physical processes that control them. GCMs are complex, multi-dimensional computer codes that can generally be divided into two parts: the geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) framework, which represents accelerations and spatially resolved processes, and the physics routines, which provide the forcing functions for the circulation. Producing a GCM that is appropriate for a particular body—Mars, for example—requires implementing the appropriate physics routines (e.g., radiative transfer, planetary boundary layer physics, dust lifting physics to generate dust storms, etc.) for that body. In this talk, I will give an overview of the components of the NASA Ames Mars GCM and discuss some of the scientific questions we address with this state-of-the-art numerical model.

Melinda A. Kahre↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2012

Hydroclimatic Controls over Global Variations in Phenology and Carbon Flux

The connection between phenological and hydroclimatological variations are quantified through joint analyses of global NDVI, LAI, and precipitation datasets. The global distributions of both NDVI and LAI in the warm season are strongly controlled by three quantities: mean annual precipitation, the standard deviation of annual precipitation, and Budyko's index of dryness. Upon demonstrating that these same basic (if biased) relationships are produced by a dynamic vegetation model (the dynamic vegetation and carbon storage components of the NCAR Community Land Model version 4 combined with the water and energy balance framework of the Catchment Land Surface Model of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), we use the model to perform a sensitivity study focusing on how phenology and carbon flux might respond to climatic change. The offline (decoupled from the atmosphere) simulations show us, for example, where on the globe a given small increment in precipitation mean or variability would have the greatest impact on carbon uptake. The analysis framework allows us in addition to quantify the degree to which climatic biases in a free-running GCM are manifested as biases in simulated phenology.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS1992

Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Bretherton, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Satellite-Derived TOA Shortwave Clear-Sky Fluxes to Estimates from GCM Simulations Constrained by Satellite Observations of Land Surface Characteristics

Clear-sky, upwelling shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere (S(sub TOA raised arrow)), simulated using the atmospheric and land model components of the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3), is compared to corresponding observational estimates from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor. Improvements resulting from the use of land surface albedo derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain the simulations are also examined. Compared to CERES observations, CCSM3 overestimates global, annual averaged S(sub TOA raised arrow) over both land and oceans. However, regionally, CCSM3 overestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over some land and ocean areas while underestimating it over other sites. CCSM3 underestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over the Saharan and Arabian Deserts and substantial differences exist between CERES observations and CCSM3 over agricultural areas. Over selected sites, after using groundbased observations to remove systematic biases that exist in CCSM computation of S(sub TOA raised arrow), it is found that use of MODIS albedo improves the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow). Inability of coarse resolution CCSM3 simulation to resolve spatial heterogeneity of snowfall over high altitude sites such as the Tibetan Plateau causes overestimation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) in these areas. Discrepancies also exist in the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) over ocean areas as CCSM3 does not account for the effect of wind speed on ocean surface albedo. This study shows that the radiative energy budget at the TOA is improved through the use of MODIS albedo in Global Climate Models.

Anantharaj, Valentine G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The implementation and validation of improved landsurface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

Landsurface hydrological parameterizations are implemented in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: (1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface, and (2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water in the soil column. A one dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new landsurface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show comparable improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and landsurface) scale, to the zonal, continental, and finally the finer river basin scales.

Johnson, Kevin D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970-2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were +0.3 and -0.3 Watts per square meter; the average surface air temperature changes were +0.2 degrees and -0.03 C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds.

Koch, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Ammonium, Nitrate and Sulfate Aerosols in 3-Dimensions

The effect aerosols have on climate and air quality is a func-on of their chemical composi-on, concentra-on and spa-al distribu-on. These parameters are controlled by emissions, heterogeneous and homogeneous chemistry, where thermodynamics plays a key role, transport, which includes stratospheric-­‐ tropospheric exchange, and deposi-onal sinks. In this work we demonstrate the effect of some of these processes on the SO4‐NH4­‐NO3 system using the GISS ModelE2 Global Circula-on Model (GCM).

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1981

Overview

The creation of a spherical model in cylindrical geometry is discussed. The model requires a radial body force to simulate gravity. This force is achieved by dielectric effects on a liquid in the presence of a large voltage, but in the terrestrial laboratory it cannot be made large enough to overwhelm gravity. However, in an orbiting vehicle like Spacelab, this dielectric force will dominate. The behavior of a stripped down general circulation system (GCS) is a salient omission of GCM. It is suggested that the system will contribute to global weather and climate studies.

Fowlis, W. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The implementation and validation of improved land-surface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

New land-surface hydrologic parameterizations are implemented into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: 1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid-scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface and 2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water and root sink in the soil column. A one-dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three-dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new land-surface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics, is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show similar improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and land-surface) scale to the zonal, continental, and finally the regional river basin scales.

Johnson, Kevin D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This proposal is focused on using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data and numerical models to address issues of atmospheric mixing of volatiles and aerosols, on defining the mean state of the atmosphere and the degree of variability, and on the processes which exchange volatiles and aerosols between the surface and atmosphere. Specifically, five areas of research were defined: In the first, we proposed to use TES data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere both through retrieval of the residual circulation, and by comparison of the TES data with a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). In the second, we proposed to look at synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric mixing processes (baroclinic storms, etc.) by combining TES and MOC Wide Angle data, and by employing a Mars Mesoscale Model. In the third section, we proposed to examine the record of the Martian atmospheric state provided by MGS, Viking, and Mariner 9 - as well as published ground-based observations - in order to assess the nature of interannual variability. In the forth section, we proposed to compare numerical models of the Martian water and dust cycles with TES and MOC data, specifically looking at water ice cloud distributions, dust distribution, etc. In the fifth section, we propose to use the mesoscale model to study the Mars Pathfinder Lander data. This work has now concluded its final of three years.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

How Dry is the Tropical Free Troposphere? Implications for Global Warming Theory

The humidity of the free troposphere is being increasingly scrutinized in climate research due to its central role in global warming theory through positive water vapor feedback. This feedback is the primary source of global warming in general circulation models (GCMs). Because the loss of infrared energy to space increases nonlinearly with decreases in relative humidity, the vast dry zones in the Tropics are of particular interest. These dry zones are nearly devoid of radiosonde stations, and most of those stations have, until recently, ignored the low humidity information from the sondes. This results in substantial uncertainty in GCM tuning and validation based on sonde data. While satellite infrared radiometers are now beginning to reveal some information about the aridity of the tropical free troposphere, the authors show that the latest microwave humidity sounder data suggests even drier conditions than have been previously reported. This underscores the importance of understanding how these low humidity levels are controlled in order to tune and validate GCMs, and to predict the magnitude of water vapor feedback and thus the magnitude of global warming.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Intercomparison of Atmospheric Radiation Schemes for the Lower Martian Atmosphere

Interpretation of the vast data flow from the recent and ongoing Mars missions requires extensive modeling activity to support the investigations and conclusions drawn from the observations. We have initiated a campaign to compare atmospheric radiation schemes for the lower Martian atmosphere with leastcompromise reference line-by-line calculations (Meadows and Crisp 1996, Crisp 1986). By using fixed reference conditions we are introducing an intercomparison framework to enable atmospheric modeling teams to compare their modeling results with the reference line-by-line calculations, and to improve their models. The atmosphere of Mars is thin and therefore its response to local radiative forcing is strong when compared to that of the Earth s troposphere. Airborne dust and also the water vapor give significant contributions to the radiative fluxes. Thus models of the Martian atmosphere should have fairly accurate radiative transfer (RT) algorithms. This is specifically important for the net radiative flux at the surface, which is the main driver for the surface temperature evolution, since the surface turbulent fluxes are small due to the thin atmosphere (e.g. Haberle et al. 1993, Savij arvi 1991a, Savij arvi 1991b, Savij arvi 1999). However, the accuracy of the RT schemes has not been rigorously tested in many cases as reference calculations have been rare. We introduce a set of reference cases for Martian atmospheric conditions with profiles for temperature, pressure, dust optical depth (Conrath 1975, Clancy et al. 1995, OckertBell et al. 1997, Smith et al. 2000), water, CO2,O3,CO and O2 (Table 1). The reference atmosphere uses a diurnally and globally averaged thermal structure derived from Mariner 9 IRIS observations acquired during late southern summer. Thermal structures for nighttime and daytime conditions will be included shortly. Computationally expensive reference simulations were performed by applying a spectrum resolving (line-by-line multiple scattering) model, SRM, to give the least-compromise base for comparisons. We call for other groups to join in future comparisons. This resembles the International Comparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models (ICRCCM; e.g. Ellingson and Fouquart 1991, Ellingson et al. 1991). The ICRCCM led to many improvements in the Earth GCM radiation codes. The intercomparison framework presented in this paper is a step toward that direction for Mars. We have already five modeling teams participating in this intercomparison exercice. Additional teams investigating the Martian atmosphere are cordially invited to join this effort of comparing the radiation schemes in fixed conditions. The results achieved will be reported and some additional features to be included in the intercomparison will be discussed.

A-M Harri↗
NASA NTRS1993

The analysis of global cloud and radiation data for the study of cloud-climate interactions

During the past year, ISCCP C1 data has been analyzed for two regions, the stratocumulus area off California and the tropical Atlantic. The first part of the study dealing with stratocumulus clouds is complete and the results form the technical portion of this report. A manuscript that has recently been prepared covering this subject is attached as an Appendix. The abstract describes the key finding that cloudy mean liquid water path (LWP) is invariant with cloud fraction for cloud cover between 20% - 80%. Similar conclusions are reached with ISCCP and LANDSAT data. This has important implications for General Circulation Models. A possible application is described in the Discussion section of the Appendix. An idea that has been proposed for dealing with GCM hydrology can be used.

HARSHVARDHAN↗
NASA NTRS2008

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗