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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
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DOE OSTI2024

Exploiting bacterial effector proteins to uncover evolutionarily conserved antiviral host machinery

Arboviruses are a diverse group of insect-transmitted pathogens that pose global public health challenges. Identifying evolutionarily conserved host factors that combat arbovirus replication in disparate eukaryotic hosts is important as they may tip the balance between productive and abortive viral replication, and thus determine virus host range. Here, we exploit naturally abortive arbovirus infections that we identified in lepidopteran cells and use bacterial effector proteins to uncover host factors restricting arbovirus replication. Bacterial effectors are proteins secreted by pathogenic bacteria into eukaryotic hosts cells that can inhibit antimicrobial defenses. Since bacteria and viruses can encounter common host defenses, we hypothesized that some bacterial effectors may inhibit host factors that restrict arbovirus replication in lepidopteran cells. Thus, we used bacterial effectors as molecular tools to identify host factors that restrict four distinct arboviruses in lepidopteran cells. By screening 210 effectors encoded by seven different bacterial pathogens, we identify several effectors that individually rescue the replication of all four arboviruses. We show that these effectors encode diverse enzymatic activities that are required to break arbovirus restriction. We further characterize Shigella flexneri-encoded IpaH4 as an E3 ubiquitin ligase that directly ubiquitinates two evolutionarily conserved proteins, SHOC2 and PSMC1, promoting their degradation in insect and human cells. We show that depletion of either SHOC2 or PSMC1 in insect or human cells promotes arbovirus replication, indicating that these are ancient virus restriction factors conserved across invertebrate and vertebrate hosts. Collectively, our study reveals a novel pathogen-guided approach to identify conserved antimicrobial machinery, new effector functions, and conserved roles for SHOC2 and PSMC1 in virus restriction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics

Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO2 injection, seasonality of SO2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO4) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO2, SO4, and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO2, which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of −0.35 W m−2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO2 concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO2 at height consistently increased SO2 and SO4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Corrigendum to “The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics” published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, 2023

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of -0.35?W?m-2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8?d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59?% decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23?% increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

Ahsan, Hamza [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake

Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric pressure plasma functionalization of polystyrene

Atmospheric pressure plasma jets (APPJs) are used to improve the adhesive and hydrophilic properties of commodity hydrocarbon polymers such as polypropylene, polyethylene, and polystyrene (PS). These improvements largely result from adding oxygen functional groups to the surface. PS functionalization is of interest to produce high value biocompatible well-plates and dishes, which require precise control over surface properties. In this paper, we discuss results from a computational investigation of APPJ functionalization of PS surfaces using He/O 2 /H 2 O gas mixtures. A newly developed surface reaction mechanism for functionalization of PS upon exposure to these plasmas is discussed. A global plasma model operated in plug-flow mode was used to predict plasma-produced species fluxes onto the PS surface. A surface site balance model was used to predict oxygen-functionalization of the PS following exposure to the plasma and ambient air. We found that O-occupancy on the surface strongly correlates with the O-atom flux to the PS, with alcohol groups and cross-linked products making the largest contributors to total oxygen fraction. Free radical sites, such as alkoxy and peroxy, are quickly consumed in the post-plasma exposure to air through passivation and cross-linking. O-atom fluences approaching 10 17 cm -2 saturate the O-occupancy on the PS surface, creating functionality that is not particularly sensitive to moderate changes in operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Albedo-induced global warming impact of Conservation Reserve Program grasslands converted to annual and perennial bioenergy crops

Abstract Climate benefit assessments of bioenergy crops often focus on biogeochemical impacts, paying little if any attention to biogeophysical impacts. However, land conversions required for large-scale bioenergy crop production are substantial and may directly affect the climate by altering surface energy balance. In the US, such land conversions are likely to be met in part by converting Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland to bioenergy crops. Here, we converted three 22 year old CRP smooth brome grass fields into no-till corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie bioenergy crops. We assessed the biogeophysical climate impact of the conversions using albedo changes relative to unconverted reference CRP grassland. The corn and perennial fields had higher annual albedo than the grassland they replaced—causing cooling of the local climate. The cooling of the corn field occurred solely during the non-growing season—especially when surfaces were snow-covered, whereas the cooling of the perennial fields was more prominent during the growing season. Compared to biogeochemical impacts with fossil fuel offsets for the same land conversions over eight years, the annual albedo-induced climate benefits add ∼35% and ∼78% to the annual biogeochemical benefits provided from the switchgrass and restored prairie fields, respectively, and offset ∼3.3% of the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the corn field. We conclude that albedo-induced climate mitigation from conversion of CRP lands to perennial but not annual bioenergy crops can be substantial, and future climate impact assessments of bioenergy crops should include albedo changes in addition to GHG balances in order to better inform climate policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

East Antarctic Ice Sheet variability in the central Transantarctic Mountains since the mid Miocene

The response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to warmer-than-present climate conditions has direct implications for projections of future sea level, ocean circulation, and global radiative forcing. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether the ice sheet is likely to undergo net loss due to amplified melting coupled with dynamic instabilities or whether such losses will be balanced, or even offset, by enhanced accumulation under a higher-precipitation regime. The glacial depositional record from the central Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) provides a robust geologic means to reconstruct the past behaviour of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, including during periods thought to have been warmer than today, such as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.3–3.0 Ma). This study describes a new surface-exposure-dated moraine record from Otway Massif in the central TAM spanning the last ~9 Myr and synthesises these data in the context of previously published moraine chronologies constrained with cosmogenic nuclides. The resulting record, although fragmentary, represents the majority of direct and unambiguous terrestrial evidence for the existence and size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last 14 Myr, and it thus provides new insight into the long-term relationship between the ice sheet and global climate. At face value, the existing TAM moraine record does not exhibit a clear signature of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, thus precluding a definitive verdict on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to this event. In contrast, an apparent hiatus in moraine deposition both at Otway Massif and the neighbouring Roberts Massif suggests that the ice sheet surface in the central TAM was potentially lower than present during the late Miocene and earliest Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A direct numerical simulation of Jet A flame kernel quenching

The safe operation of aeronautical engines requires an understanding of flame ignition, propagation and extinction. In this study, direct numerical simulations are performed using a 29 species reduced chemical mechanism for jet fuel surrogate Jet A to understand the flame quenching process. Here, initially laminar spherical flames of varying sizes and equivalence ratios are subject to an identical periodic domain of decaying and isotropic high intensity turbulence with a turbulent Reynolds number of 2400. All cases become quenched, except for the larger kernel with lower Karlovitz number. An analysis of the flame structure shows broadened preheat zone, flame shortening on the product side, differential species diffusion and partial fuel pyrolysis in the fresh mixture. Two extinction mechanisms are identified arising from flame shortening and high flame stretch. Flame shortening occurs due to turbulence-chemistry interactions that resemble the flame–flame interaction in a laminar counterflow reactant-to-reactant configuration, which contorts and breaks up the ignition kernel. Flame stretch is a local effect that attenuates the heat release rate and causes the flame to retreat towards the product mixtures, similar to what has been observed for reactant-to-product laminar counterflow flames. Chemical explosive mode analysis was also performed to quantify the flame structure and local combustion mode. The diffusion–reaction balance in pinched-off flame islands favors extinction of these smaller structures, while auto-ignition modes are observed within the flame kernel after fresh mixture is engulfed and preheated in the product kernel. Statistics of the density-weighted displacement speed conditional on local combustion mode indicates strong correlation between the local extinction mode and negative displacement speed. The local balance between diffusion and reaction ultimately determines the propensity for local extinction in both laminar and turbulent flames, the extent of which has an impact on global flame propagation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New Era for Solar and Storage: Partnering for Continued Success

Solar energy has grown faster than experts projected. Energy storage technologies are poised to repeat that success, enabling a partnership to keep the lights on even after the sun sets. As current impacts and growing threats of climate change become more visible and the world accelerates efforts to adopt new clean-energy technology, electricity generation from solar and wind is playing an increasing role in the energy system. However, it can be confusing - we hear that solar has great potential, but we also hear that solar and wind are too small to make a meaningful difference, providing just 3% and 6% of the world's electricity in 2020, respectively (1). What is the reality and what can we expect in the coming years? This article focuses on solar, but wind has an equally impressive and interesting story. This article reviews how prices for solar have dropped dramatically and deployment has increased correspondingly to the point where solar is almost half of the new electricity generating capacity being installed globally today. It shows how solar-generated electricity has grown to the point where we need to pair it with storage or other strategies for balancing electricity supply and demand. The article also explores how lithium-ion batteries are replicating solar technology's big success and discusses new storage technologies that are being developed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal confinement and transport in spherical tokamaks: a review

Here, we review the thermal plasma confinement and transport properties observed and predicted in low aspect ratio tokamaks, or spherical tokamaks (STs), which can depart significantly from those observed at higher aspect ratio. In particular, thermal energy confinement scalings show a strong, near linear dependence of energy confinement time on toroidal magnetic field, while the dependence on plasma current is more modest, the opposite of what is seen at higher aspect ratio. STs have revealed a very strong improvement in normalized confinement with decreasing collisionality, much stronger than at higher aspect ratio, which bodes well for an ST-based fusion pilot plant should this trend continue at an even lower collisionality than has already been accessed. These differences arise because of fundamental differences in transport in STs due to the more extreme toroidicity (i.e. reduced region of bad curvature), and to the relatively larger $E_r \times B$ shearing rates, both of which can suppress electrostatic drift wave instabilities at both ion and electron gyroradius scales. In addition, electromagnetic effects are much stronger in STs because they operate at high β T . Gyrokinetic (GK) studies, coupled with low- and high-k turbulence measurements, have shed light on the underlying physics controlling transport. At lower β T , both ion- and electron-scale electrostatic drift turbulence may be responsible for transport. At higher β T , microtearing, kinetic ballooning, and hybrid trapped electron/kinetic ballooning modes increasingly play a role, and they have a much stronger impact in the core of ST plasmas than at higher aspect ratio. Flow shear affects the balance between ion- and electron-scale modes. Non-linear GK simulations find regimes where the electron heat flux decreases with decreasing collisionality, consistent with the experimental global normalized confinement scaling. The ST is unique in that the relatively low toroidal magnetic field allows for localized measurements of electron-scale turbulence, and this coupled with turbulence measurements at ion-scales has facilitated detailed comparisons with GK simulations. These data have provided compelling evidence for the presence of ion temperature gradient and electron temperature gradient turbulence in some plasmas, and direct experimental support for the impact of experimental actuators like rotation shear, density gradient and magnetic shear on turbulence and transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of gas injection location and divertor surface material on ITER fusion power operation phase divertor performance assessed with SOLPS-ITER *

Abstract The ITER divertor design and performance assessment, primarily based on the SOLPS-4.3 burning plasma database (Pitts R. et al 2019 Nucl. Mater. Energy 20 100696), assumes the use of beryllium (Be) as the divertor surface material and the injection of gas from the main chamber top. However, the current ITER baseline favors gas injection from the more toroidally symmetric sub-divertor region. This paper evaluates the implications of these assumptions for divertor performance in the ITER fusion power operation phase. The impact of the divertor surface material and the gas injection location on the main ions mirrors the hydrogen only low power phase scenario shown in Park J.-S. et al (2020 Nucl. Fusion 61 016021). However, during burning plasma operation, extrinsic impurity seeding will be required. In the case of neon (Ne), studied here, impurity retention is influenced by both the divertor surface material and the fueling location. Neon leakage increases due to more energetic reflection from tungsten than beryllium, but equivalent divertor performance can be achieved by adjusting the neon seeding rate. While the impurity seeding location does not affect the distributions of impurity or radiation, the fueling location does. Top fueling provides local ionization sources mainly in the mid-SOL under detached conditions, enhancing divergences of the flux there (source-driven flow), bringing stagnation points close to the fueling location, and equilibrating flows towards both targets. In contrast, the global flow pattern (in the absence of fluid drifts) in the case of sub-divertor fueling is biased towards the inner target. Impurity flows, driven by force balance, largely mirror those of the main ion flow, including the stagnation point. The case with top fueling enhances Ne retention and corresponding radiation in the outer divertor, effectively reducing the total and peak target heat fluxes by 20%–40%, compared to the case with divertor fueling. Meanwhile, the case with outer target fueling also achieves similar reductions by enhancing plasma-neutral interactions. These results suggest the possibility that the selection of the fueling location and throughput can be used as an actuator to control impurity divertor retention and divertor radiation asymmetry.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Industrial Energy Storage Review

As the United States moves to net-zero carbon emission by 2050, a transition to renewable energy generation is required. However, the variable nature of renewable energy generation at high penetrations can cause imbalances in generation and transmission of electricity. These imbalances can be circumvented by the deployment of energy storage. Global industrial energy storage is projected to grow 2.6 times in the coming decades, from just over 60 GWh to 167 GWh in 2030. The challenge is to balance energy storage capabilities with the power and energy needs for particular industrial applications. Energy storage technologies can be classified by the form of the stored energy. The most common forms include thermal, chemical, electrochemical, and mechanical storage technologies. The most appropriate storage technology will depend on the unique energy needs of the industrial application. The purpose of this report is to provide a review of energy storage technologies relevant to the U.S. industrial sector, highlighting the applications in industry that will benefit from increased integration of energy storage, as well as the respective challenges and opportunities unique to integrating different storage technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An uncertainty-aware strategy for plasma mechanism reduction with directed weighted graphs

In this work, we present a framework for the analysis and reduction of plasma mechanisms by means of weighted directed graphs, in which reactions and species are both treated as nodes. The methodology consists of two distinct analyses. The first, which is qualitative, relies on graph spatializations via force-directed algorithms to discover the predominant global patterns in the chemical model. The second ranks the reactions based on their shortest paths' lengths from/to the species of interest and their relative contributions to the power balance. Further, this quantitative investigation enables a strategy for mechanism reduction that is fully automatized, as it does not require any expert knowledge, highly effective, as it generates reduced mechanisms that are highly accurate while relying on a small number of processes, and easily interpretable, as the algorithm justifies the importance of the retained reactions by outputting their related chemical pathways. Additionally, the work proposes a methodology extension that employs ensembles of graphs to improve the robustness of the reduced mechanism to reaction parameter uncertainties. The approach, here tested for steady-state predictions of a plasma system characterizing negative hydrogen ion sources, is general and can be used in a wide variety of applications outside the particular nuclear fusion context demonstrated in this work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source:sink imbalance detected with leaf and canopy-level spectroscopy in a field-grown crop

The finely-tuned balance between sources and sinks determines plant resource partitioning and regulates growth and development. Understanding and measuring metabolic indicators of source or sink limitation forms a vital part of global efforts to increase crop yield for future food security. Here, we measured metabolic profiles of Cucurbita pepo (zucchini) grown in the field under carbon sink limitation and control conditions. We demonstrate that these profiles can be measured non-destructively using hyperspectral reflectance at both leaf and canopy scales. Total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC) increased 82% in sink-limited plants; leaf mass per unit area (LMA) increased 38%; free amino acids increased 22%. Partial least-squares regression models link these measured functional traits with reflectance data, enabling high-throughput estimation of traits comprising the sink limitation response. Leaf- and canopy-scale models for TNC had R 2 values of 0.93 and 0.64 and %RMSE of 13% and 38% respectively. For LMA, R 2 values were 0.91 and 0.60 and %RMSE 7% and 14%; for free amino acids, R 2 was 0.53 and 0.21 with %RMSE 20% and 26%. Remote sensing can enable accurate, rapid detection of sink limitation in the field at the leaf and canopy scale, greatly expanding our ability to understand and measure metabolic responses to stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗