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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic analysis of melt pool dynamics in laser processing of mixed powder feedstocks

Functionally graded materials (FGMs) fabricated via additive manufacturing of blended powders offer the potential to spatially tailor properties for new technologies, such as fusion first-wall systems, turbine blades, and spacecraft. However, processing these materials is difficult due to the multiplicity of processing parameters to optimize, all of which must be changed as substrate material, powder feedstock compositions, and melt pool dynamics evolve. Here, this work systematically evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of these variables on the melt pool size, shape, composition, and particle distribution in an exemplar Ti-Ta system, and connects the experimental results to Marangoni flow behavior and phenomena observed in other systems. Increasing laser power linearly increases melt pool size and layer thickness, driving engineering considerations such as part/geometrical tolerances. Decreasing laser velocity changes the melt pool shape from lenticular to convex and reduces chemical homogeneity due to extreme thermal and compositional gradients between the melt pool center and boundaries. Thermophysical property differences between the powder feedstock and substrate material, as well as the directionality of the gradient, affect dilution and melt pool dynamics, which in turn affect the melt pool boundary characteristics, shape, and uniformity. Mixed powder feedstocks of intermediate compositions do not behave according to linear interpolations between single-material endpoints, instead building taller and wider melt pools. As such, it is recommended to quantify process maps for at least one intermediate composition in the FGM or multi-material system of interest to ensure optimized processing parameters, predictable melt pool sizes and shapes, and compositional and spatial precision.

Dissimilar↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Model Development for Large Eddy Simulation of Oxy-Combustion and Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Power Cycles

A joint experimental and numerical study is performed to observe the characteristics of a supercritical carbon dioxide turbulent mixing layer in the presence of strong nonlinearities in the thermodynamic and transport properties. A bespoke experimental setup is designed and employed for this purpose and provides insight into macroscopic mixing behavior. The mixing is experimentally observed using two techniques: shadowgraphy and spontaneous Raman scattering. Qualitative and quantitative intensity fields obtained via these techniques yield instantaneous and mean density data. Spanwise temperature data is also collected using analogue resistance temperature detectors. These measurements are used to quantify the level of mixed material within the field. The experimental data are supplemented by a companion high-fidelity numerical study. The numerical results are obtained through fully resolved, three-dimensional direct numerical simulation. The numerical dataset permits observation of the near-field mixing characteristics, which are difficult to measure experimentally due to the rapid dynamics and sharp thermophysical gradients in this area. Qualitative field visualizations are presented, followed by quantitative mixed material results and observations regarding thermodynamic property trends at select locations within the field. One-dimensional spectra of the turbulent kinetic energy and solenoidal dissipation are provided to observe the spectral characteristics of the flow. Reynolds stress anisotropy is analyzed graphically through anisotropy invariance maps (Lumley triangles). The mixing quantification, spectral data and anisotropy analysis of a flow at these thermodynamic conditions represent the main outcomes of the work.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-resonant picosecond three-wave mixing in the gas phase

We report on the experimental observation of non-resonant, second-order optical sum-frequency generation (SFG) in five different atomic and molecular gases. The measured signal is attributed to a SFG process by characterizing its intensity scaling and its polarization behavior. We show that the electric quadrupole mechanism cannot explain the observed trends and suggest a mechanism based on symmetry breaking along the incident beam path arising from laser-induced species ground state number density gradients. Our results demonstrate that the SFG is about four orders of magnitude stronger than the third-harmonic generation (THG) and independent from any externally applied electric fields. In conclusion, these features make this method suitable for gas number density measurements at the picosecond time scale in reactive flows and plasmas.

LaCombe, Grayson↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Reservoir Convection on Heat Extraction with Closed-Loop Geothermal Systems

Over the past few years, advancements in closed-loop geothermal systems (CLGS), also called advanced geothermal systems (AGS), have sparked a renewed interest in these types of designs. CLGS have certain advantages over traditional and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), including not requiring in-situ reservoir permeability, conservation of the circulating fluid, and allowing for different fluids, including working fluids directly driving a turbine at the surface. CLGS may be attractive in environments where water resources are limited, rock contaminants must be avoided, and stimulation treatments are not available (e.g., due to regulatory or technical reasons). Despite these advantages, CLGS have some challenges, including limited surface area for heat transfer and requiring long wellbores and laterals to obtain multi-MW output in conduction-only reservoirs. CLGS have been investigated in conduction-only systems. In this paper, we explore the impact of both forced and natural convection on the levels of heat extraction with a CLGS deployed in a hot wet rock reservoir. We bound potential benefits of convection by investigating liquid reservoirs over a range of natural and forced convective coefficients. Additionally, we investigate the effects of permeability, porosity, and geothermal temperature gradient in the reservoir on CLGS outputs. Reservoir simulations indicate that reservoir permeabilities of at least ~100 mD are required for natural convection to increase the heat output with respect to a conduction-only scenario. The impact increases with increasing reservoir temperature. When subject to a forced convection flow field, Darcy velocities of at least 10-7 m/s are required to obtain an increase in heat output.

advanced geothermal systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Field Emission Free Cavity Processing and String Assembly at Fermilab

Cavities and cryomodules assembled at Fermilab have demonstrated unprecedented field emission (FE) free gradients. However, consistent FE-free performance is not guaranteed. Many lessons were learned, and continued vigilance is a must. In addition, several improvements have been identified to further push the state-of-the-art low particulate cavity processing and assembly at Fermilab. Those included the optimization of nitrogen flow, robotic-assisted assembly, and low-particulate fasteners. We share our latest results and vision for the future clean assemblies of cavities and cryomodule strings.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation of Kolmogorov turbulence due to multiscale vortices in dusty plasma experiments

We report the experimental observation of fully developed Kolmogorov turbulence originating from self-excited vortex flows in a three-dimensional (3D) dust cloud. The characteristic -5/3 scaling of 3D Kolmogorov turbulence is consistent in both the spatial and temporal energy spectra within a statistical variation of experimental data. Additionally, the 2/3 scaling in the second-order structure function further supports the presence of Kolmogorov turbulence. We also identified a slight deviation in the tails of the probability distribution functions for velocity gradients, a reflection of intermittency. The experiment showed the formation of a dust cloud in the diffused plasma region away from the electrodes. The dust rotation was observed in multiple experimental campaigns under different discharge conditions at different spatial locations and background plasma environments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Terrestrial laser scanning data (Levels 0 and 1) from Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project sites, Knoxville, Tennessee, Jul 2024 - Jul 2025

This data package contains data from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at five urban park sites in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. All parks include open-grown and/or closed-canopy trees and mixed nearby land use. These study sites were established as part of the Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project, which has an overall goal of better understanding how hydrobiogeochemical cycling is altered within the human environment. These five sites represent a gradient of urbanization, and were instrumented to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycling (e.g., soil moisture, soil physical properties and biogeochemistry, tree transpiration, species type). The TLS data archived here were collected to provide detailed, three-dimensional information about forest structure. Specifically, data were collected to allow tree- and stand-level characterization of woody structure and leaf area. TLS scans were placed to capture the area around trees with sap flow sensors, and as much of a 50 m radius area around the meteorological station as possible given site property limits. Derived products will allow upscaling of water content and transpiration data. This data package contains the following data: - High-level files document further details of the campaign and data package: 1_CampaignSummary.csv provides details about the campaign and study site, 2_ScanAreasDetail.csv provides details about each separate scan area (groups of scans post-processed into a single point cloud), 3_TerrestrialLidarSensor.csv provides further technical details about the Riegl VZ-400i TLS sensor, TLS_CSV_dd.csv is a CSV Data Dictionary providing information about the fields in CSV files following the ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting Format, TLS_flmd.csv is a File Level Metadata file providing information about each file in the data package following the ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata Reporting Format, and README.txt is a text file describing the overall project and file structure. - Level 0 data are the raw data (.PROJ folders) as recorded by the Riegl VZ-400i TLS instrument before scan co-registration and post-processing with the Riegl's proprietary RiSCAN PRO software, which requires a license. - Level 1 data contain post-processed, co-registered data from each scan area. The "PointClouds" folder for each scan area contains a .las file with 1 cm resolution point cloud data exported from RiSCAN PRO. These are the main files likely to be of interest to most users and can be further processed with any software capable of manipulating .las files (e.g. Python, R CloudCompare). The "Project Information" folder contains log files from post-processing in RiSCAN PRO that may be of interest to users who want to see detailed records of post-processing, including all PDF reports generated by RiSCAN PRO. The "ScanPositions" folder contains information about the final position of all TLS scans, after post-processing, in multiple formats. The file ScanPositions_*.csv provides final geo-referenced scan positions, and the file SOP_backup_*.csv can be used in RiSCAN PRO to restore the co-registered scan positions if users wish to re-process raw data (Level 0 .PROJ folders) with RiSCAN PRO software (e.g., subsample to a different resolution, exclude a certain scan position, or apply different filters on reflectance or deviation values) without redoing time-consuming co-registration steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monitored Fluctuating Hydrodynamics

We introduce a hydrodynamic framework for describing monitored classical stochastic processes. We study the conditional ensembles for these monitored processes—i.e., we compute spacetime correlation functions conditioned on a fixed, typical measurement record. In the presence of global symmetries we show that these conditional ensembles can undergo measurement-induced “sharpening” phase transitions as a function of the monitoring rate; moreover, even weak monitoring can give rise to novel critical phases, derived entirely from a classical perspective. We give a simple hydrodynamic derivation of the known “charge-fuzzy phase” for weakly monitored diffusive many-body quantum systems. We show that although the unmonitored symmetric and asymmetric exclusion processes are in different universality classes of transport, the fluctuations in their conditional ensembles flow to the same fixed point with emergent relativistic invariance under monitoring. On the other hand, weakly monitored systems with non-Abelian symmetries enter a novel strongly coupled fixed point with nontrivial dynamical exponent, which we characterize. Our formalism naturally accounts for monitoring general observables, such as currents or density gradients, and allows for a direct calculation of information-theoretic diagnostics of sharpening transitions, including the Shannon entropy of the measurement record.

classical statistical mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tidal–hydrological dynamics of water temperature across freshwater forested wetlands on the northeastern Pacific coast

Abstract Tidal freshwater forests were once extensive across temperate coastlines, but loss and fragmentation have made estimation of their ecosystem functions challenging. We measured water temperature for 2 years in three Sitka spruce tidal forests, a restoration site, and an adjacent emergent marsh on the Columbia River, Washington, United States. We assessed spatial variability of water temperature within sites including the effects of hydrology, differences among bay and tributary tidal forests, and differences between the tidal forests and the mainstem Columbia, the restoration site, and the emergent marsh. The tidal forests nearest to the bay had lower interior water temperatures than their channel confluences by up to 2.5°C (weekly median temperature) and 2.0°C (weekly maximum temperature), with most cooling occurring during the low‐flow months of July–September. Tributary sites had maximum temperatures up to 1.9°C cooler than bay sites and 4.2°C cooler than the mainstem. Temperatures in the two bay sites decreased by −0.16°C/100 m and −0.07°C/100 m, on average. The restoration site had the smallest within‐site temperature gradient. Differences in maximum temperatures were greatest when tidal range was low, while higher tidal ranges were associated with warmer and more variable site interiors relative to their confluences. These results suggest that water temperatures in these tidal forests can provide temperature refugia for cold water biota including salmon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Thermoelastoviscoplastic Damage Internal State Variable Constitutive Model including Magnetism

We present a macroscale constitutive model that couples magnetism with thermal, elastic, plastic, and damage effects in an Internal State Variable (ISV) theory. Previous constitutive models did not include an interdependence between the internal magnetic (magnetostriction and magnetic flux) and mechanical fields. Although constitutive models explaining the mechanisms behind mechanical deformations caused by magnetization changes have been presented in the literature, they mainly focus on nanoscale structure–property relations. A fully coupled multiphysics macroscale ISV model presented herein admits lower length scale information from the nanoscale and microscale descriptions of the multiphysics behavior, thus capturing the effects of magnetic field forces with isotropic and anisotropic magnetization terms and moments under thermomechanical deformations. For the first time, this ISV modeling framework internally coheres to the kinematic, thermodynamic, and kinetic relationships of deformation using the evolving ISV histories. For the kinematics, a multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient is employed including a magnetization term; hence, the Jacobian represents the conservation of mass and conservation of momentum including magnetism. The first and second laws of thermodynamics are used to constrain the appropriate constitutive relations through the Clausius–Duhem inequality. The kinetic framework employs a stress–strain relationship with a flow rule that couples the thermal, mechanical, and magnetic terms. Experimental data from the literature for three different materials (iron, nickel, and cobalt) are used to compare with the model’s results showing good correlations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Thermoelastoviscoplastic Damage Internal State Variable Constitutive Model including Magnetism

We present a macroscale constitutive model that couples magnetism with thermal, elastic, plastic, and damage effects in an Internal State Variable (ISV) theory. Previous constitutive models did not include an interdependence between the internal magnetic (magnetostriction and magnetic flux) and mechanical fields. Although constitutive models explaining the mechanisms behind mechanical deformations caused by magnetization changes have been presented in the literature, they mainly focus on nanoscale structure–property relations. A fully coupled multiphysics macroscale ISV model presented herein admits lower length scale information from the nanoscale and microscale descriptions of the multiphysics behavior, thus capturing the effects of magnetic field forces with isotropic and anisotropic magnetization terms and moments under thermomechanical deformations. For the first time, this ISV modeling framework internally coheres to the kinematic, thermodynamic, and kinetic relationships of deformation using the evolving ISV histories. For the kinematics, a multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient is employed including a magnetization term; hence, the Jacobian represents the conservation of mass and conservation of momentum including magnetism. The first and second laws of thermodynamics are used to constrain the appropriate constitutive relations through the Clausius–Duhem inequality. The kinetic framework employs a stress–strain relationship with a flow rule that couples the thermal, mechanical, and magnetic terms. Experimental data from the literature for three different materials (iron, nickel, and cobalt) are used to compare with the model’s results showing good correlations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Osmotic and phoretic competition explains chemotaxic assembly and sorting

Microscale objects responding to chemical gradients by migrating toward or away from a preferred species is a simple yet constitutive mechanism by which transport occurs in biological organisms. Synthetic chemotaxis provides key physical descriptions of simplified systems that can be used in biological models, or in the creation of advanced responsive material systems. In this article, we provide a quantitative framework for understanding synthetic chemotaxis of microparticles which involves a competition between phoresis and osmosis. We present separate quantitative measurements of phoresis and osmosis acting on individual taxing particles, finding that phoresis follows the long-predicted v ∼ 1 / r 2 scaling while the osmotic contribution depends on the geometry and details of the system, and must be solved on a case-by-case basis. Through this, we are able to develop a more accurate picture of particle transport at the single particle level. Equipped with this approach, we go on to describe how high concentrations of particles in a symmetric chemical gradient grow close-packed hives that reach a steady-state size tunable through light intensity or particle size. Last, we demonstrate that mixed particles experiencing the same chemical gradient will selectively migrate toward or away depending on the nature of the particle surface, thereby locally sorting out a particular species. We anticipate these results will be important in describing both biological and synthetic chemotaxis in phoretic systems and should bring a wealth of studies that take advantage of competing osmotic flows to illicit unexpected dynamic active behavior.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of integral models for non-Boussinesq lazy plumes using numerical simulations

Integral modelling of turbulent buoyant plumes is crucial for rapid predictions of plume characteristics. While the governing equations are typically derived using self-similarity and a Boussinesq approximation, these assumptions may not hold for plumes originating from finite-area sources with large density ratios. Here, this work evaluates the accuracy of integral-scale models for non-Boussinesq lazy plumes using high-fidelity numerical simulations of turbulent helium plumes. We analyse the plume kinematics by computing vertical fluxes, plume radius and radial profiles, establishing some disparities between common practice and physical accuracy. We identify how the definition of the plume radius changes the perception of the plume structure when the flow is not self-similar and derive a relationship between the flux-based and threshold-based definitions without requiring self-similarity. We then examine the plume dynamics by evaluating the source terms from the governing plume equations. Our results support neglecting diffusive and viscous effects but emphasise the importance of the mean pressure gradient, even in the self-similar regime. Two coefficients need to be modelled: the well-known entrainment coefficient and the lesser-known momentum correction coefficient, which is a correction required for the momentum equation to account for self-similar and slender approximations. The momentum correction coefficient is found to be approximately constant and slightly greater than the assumed value of 1. The standard entrainment coefficient models perform well up to a local Richardson number three times the asymptotic value but overpredict entrainment for larger Richardson numbers. We propose a correction using the known finite limit of entrainment at infinite Richardson number.

Meehan, Michael Alexander [Sandia National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effect of B T direction on W source-to-core pathways during the SAS-VW campaign on DIII-D

Experiments using the V-shaped closed slot tungsten (W) coated SAS-VW divertor in DIII-D studied the effects of the BT direction on core contamination of eroded tungsten from a closed slot divertor configuration. Core W content is inferred using soft-X ray tomography (SXR) and vacuum ultraviolet spectroscopy (SPRED), while W divertor erosion is inferred from visible spectroscopy of W emission (400.9 nm) measured by in-slot filterscopes (filtered photo-multipliers). Post-mortem analysis from the campaign discovered tile misalignment leading to suspected pronounced leading-edge erosion in the unfavorable BT direction (ion B ⃗×∇B ⃗ drift away from divertor) likely not captured by diagnostics. However, empirical findings show up to ~2-3x larger core contamination in the favorable BT direction even considering no additional W erosion from leading edges. A “source-to-core efficiency factor” is derived to estimate the effects of leading-edge erosion and compare W contamination for two pairs of H-mode discharges in opposite BT directions. While having differing absolute parameters, similar core impurity density gradients suggest comparable core impurity transport. These results show that favorable BT may have stronger source-to-core pathways for W impurities sourced from the outer divertor region. Possible explanations could include the effects of E ⃗×B ⃗ drifts on W transport in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) as well as previously determined fast SOL inner target directed flows in favorable BT.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Refining a Novel Process Monitoring Method to Safeguard Continuously Cycling Designs Using Isotopic Ratios

In advanced reactor (AR) designs, a common feature is continuous chemical processing and circulation of the nuclear material. This work bridges a significant measurement gap in safeguarding reactors with circulating fuel or continuous refueling by leveraging and building on the isotope ratio method first developed by our team under an FY21 Advanced Reactors International Safeguards Engagement (ARISE) project (Uribe et al. 2021). In circulating fuel designs, the radioisotope inventory changes from traditional effects (e.g., radioactive decay, fission) but also includes material transport due to pressure and temperature gradients. Such designs may also require regular or continuous additions or removals during operation, which significantly increases the rate of inventory change compared to traditional pressurized water reactor (PWR)s. Thus, directly tracking the nuclear inventory is ineffective since the isotopes are continuously added and removed. The isotope ratio method instead focuses on detecting changes to the input and output flows of radioisotopes. Previous work showed that for well-chosen pairs of isotopes, the isotopic ratio provides a sensitive and lasting indicator of deviation from normal conditions (e.g., startup, shutdown, diversion). The isotope ratio method is a process monitoring method with potential for application in for forward-looking approaches to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The original process monitoring method was developed for a specific case—the decay tank of a thorium-fueled molten salt breeder reactor. In this expanded work, we explored other types of reactors and processes with nonstationary (e.g., flowing) nuclear material, which are difficult to safeguard with traditional methods because of the transient nature of the systems. The goal of the present work is to generalize the isotope ratio method for use in processes with continuously flowing nuclear material. All continuous processes have an average time for isotopes to be replaced in the system. The isotope ratio method works by choosing radioisotopes with half-lives both above and below the processing time. The present work seeks to explore which isotopes are suitable for the method by simulating the nuclear inventory, radioisotope emissions, and detector responses for several classes of advanced reactors. While the method can in principle be applied to other processes (e.g., enrichment or reprocessing facilities), the present work limits scope to ARs with continuously flowing fuel. Section 2 details the mathematics supporting the isotope ratio method, and Section 3 introduces the representative ARs selected for this work. Section 4 discusses how each reactor was analyzed, and Section 5 showcases the results for each representative reactor. Finally, Section 6 provides concluding remarks and suggests pathways for further analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Importance of gas heating in capacitively coupled radiofrequency plasma-assisted synthesis of carbon nanomaterials

In pursuit of diamond nanoparticles, a capacitively-coupled radio frequency flow-through plasma reactor was operated with methane-argon gas mixtures. Signatures of the final product obtained microscopically and spectroscopically indicated that the product was an amorphous form of graphite. This result was consistent irrespective of combinations of the macroscopic reactor settings. To explain the observed synthesis output, measurements of C 2 and gas properties were carried out by laser-induced fluorescence and optical emission spectroscopy. Strikingly, the results indicated a strong gas temperature gradient of 100 K per mm from the center of the reactor to the wall. Based on additional plasma imaging, a model of hot constricted region (filamentation region) was then formulated. It illustrated that, while the hot constricted region was present, the bulk of the gas was not hot enough to facilitate diamond sp 3 formation: characterized by much lower reaction rates, when compared to sp 2 , sp 3 formation kinetics are expected to become exponentially slow. This result was further confirmed by experiments under identical conditions but with a H 2 /CH 4 mixture, where no output material was detected: if graphitic sp 2 formation was expected as the main output material from the methane feedstock, atomic hydrogen would then be expected to etch it away in situ, such that the net production of that sp 2 -hybridized solid material is nearly a zero. Finally, the crucial importance of gas heating was corroborated by replacing RF with microwave source whereby facile sp 3 production was attained with H 2 /CH 4 gas mixture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗