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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Paraburkholderia solitsugae sp. nov. and Paraburkholderia elongata sp. nov., phenolic acid-degrading bacteria isolated from forest soil and emended description of Paraburkholderia madseniana

Two bacterial strains, 1N T and 5N T , were isolated from hemlock forest soil using a soluble organic matter enrichment. Cells of 1N T (0.65×1.85 µm) and 5N T (0.6×1.85 µm) are Gram-stain-negative, aerobic, motile, non-sporulating and exist as single rods, diplobacilli or in chains of varying length. During growth in dilute media (≤0.1× tryptic soy broth; TSB), cells are primarily motile with flagella. At higher concentrations (≥0.3× TSB), cells of both strains increasingly form non-motile chains, and cells of 5N T elongate (0.57×~7 µm) and form especially long filaments. Optimum growth of 1N T and 5N T occurred at 25–30 °C, pH 6.5–7.0 and <0.5% salinity. Results of comparative chemotaxonomic, genomic and phylogenetic analyses revealed that 1N T and 5N T were distinct from one another and their closest related type strains: Paraburkholderia madseniana RP11 T , Paraburkholderia aspalathi LMG 27731 T and Paraburkholderia caffeinilytica CF1 T . The genomes of 1N T and 5N T had an average nucleotide identity (91.6 and 91.3%) and in silico DNA–DNA hybridization values (45.8%±2.6 and 45.5%±2.5) and differed in functional gene content from their closest related type strains. The composition of fatty acids and patterns of substrate use, including the catabolism of phenolic acids, also differentiated strains 1N T and 5N T from each other and their closest relatives. The only ubiquinone present in strains 1N T and 5N T was Q-8. The major cellular fatty acids were C 16 : 0 , 3OH-C 16 : 0 , C 17 : 0 cyclo, C 19 : 0 cyclo ω8 c and summed features 2 (3OH-C 14 : 0 / C 16 : 1 iso I), 3 (C 16 : 1 ω6 c /ω7 c ) and 8 (C 18 : 1 ω7 c /ω6 c ). A third bacterium, strain RL16-012-BIC-B, was isolated from soil associated with shallow roots and was determined to be a strain of P. madseniana (ANI, 98.8%; 16S rRNA gene similarity, 100%). Characterizations of strain RL16-012-BIC-B (DSM 110723=LMG 31706) led to proposed emendments to the species description of P. madseniana . Our polyphasic approach demonstrated that strains 1N T and 5N T represent novel species from the genus Paraburkholderia for which the names Paraburkholderia solitsugae sp. nov. (type strain 1N T =DSM 110721 T =LMG 31704 T ) and Paraburkholderia elongata sp. nov. (type strain 5N T =DSM 110722 T =LMG 31705 T ) are proposed.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frustration-driven magnetic correlations in the spin-$\frac{5}{2}$ triangular lattice antiferromagnet RbFe⁢(HPO 3 ) 2

Here, a detailed study of the structural and magnetic properties of a spin-5/2 triangular lattice antiferromagnet RbFe⁢(HPO 3 ) 2 is presented using x-ray diffraction, magnetization, heat capacity, and 31 P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiments on a polycrystalline sample. The crystal structure features an equilateral triangular lattice of Fe 3+ ions. The thermodynamic measurements reveal the onset of a magnetic long-range order at 𝑇 N⁢1 ≃7.8K in zero field, followed by another low-temperature field-induced ordering at 𝑇 N⁢2 in higher fields. The transition at 𝑇 N⁢1 is further confirmed from the NMR spin lattice relaxation measurements. The value of the frustration ratio (𝑓≃7) implies moderate spin frustration in the compound. The 31 P NMR spectra exhibit two distinct spectral lines corresponding to two inequivalent phosphorus sites (P1 and P2), consistent with the crystal structure. The P1 site is strongly coupled with an isotropic hyperfine coupling of 𝐴$^{iso}_{hf}$ = 0.55⁢(2)⁢ T/𝜇 B while the P2 site is weakly coupled with 𝐴$^{iso}_{hf}$ = 0.25⁢(3)⁢ T/𝜇 B with the Fe 3+ ions. The magnetic susceptibility and NMR shift data are described well assuming a spin-5/2 isotropic triangular lattice antiferromagnetic model with an average exchange coupling of 𝐽/𝑘 B = 2.8⁢(2)⁢K. Below 𝑇 N⁢1 , the spectra evolve into a nearly rectangular powder pattern, indicating a commensurate antiferromagnetic type order. The 31 P spin-lattice relaxation rate well below 𝑇N⁢1 follows a 𝑇 3 temperature dependence, implying a two-magnon Raman scattering mechanism in the ordered state. Three well-defined phase regimes are clearly ascertained in the 𝐻−𝑇 phase diagram, reflecting a weak magnetic anisotropy in the compound.

Nagpal, V. [Indian Institute of Science Education ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-Distance Window of the Hadronic Vacuum Polarization for the Muon g − 2

We provide the first calculation of the Euclidean long-distance window of the isospin-symmetric light-quark connected contribution to the hadronic vacuum polarization for the muon g − 2 and find a μ LD , iso , conn , ud = 411.4 ( 4.3 ) ( 2.4 ) × 10 − 10 . We also provide the currently most precise calculation of the total isospin-symmetric light-quark connected contribution, a μ iso , conn , ud = 666.2 ( 4.3 ) ( 2.5 ) × 10 − 10 in the BMW20 world, which is more than 4 σ larger compared to the data-driven estimates of Boito [] and 1.7 σ larger compared to the lattice QCD result of BMW20. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of Graphite to Dynamic Loading and Hypervelocity Jet Impacts

The compressive strengths of three varieties of high purity graphite, PCEA, NBG-18, and NBG-25, as well as the depth of penetration of small-scale charges into these materials was experimentally determined. These grades are similar in density, ranging from 1.80 – 1.85 g/cc, and nominal apparent porosity, ranging from 18% to 20%, but provide a wide range in maximum grain or particle size from 10s to 1000s of µm. Two very different manufacturing methods are also represented; PCEA is extruded while NBG-18 and NBG-25 are iso-molded. The quasistatic and dynamic strengths of each grade were determined on a load frame and split-Hopkinson pressure bar, respectively. The depth of penetration (DOP) of two small-scale shaped charges, the Teledyne RP-1 and RP-4, was determined against graphite. The global response of the RP-4 impacts was markedly different as the PCEA samples remained intact while all the NBG-25 samples split into 2 or 3 pieces after the jet penetration had completed. However, for all tests, the trusted DOPs fell within 2 cm. Preliminary hydrocode modeling of the penetration events used existing models that were not designed for graphite. The results can be tuned to reasonably reproduce the DOP, but the wound channel geometry is not reproduced well. A model designed for graphite would need to represent graphite’s non-linear and energy dissipation characteristics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alkali metal halide–coated perovskite redox catalysts for anaerobic oxidative dehydrogenation of n -butane

Oxidative dehydrogenation (ODH) of n-butane has the potential to efficiently produce butadiene without equilibrium limitation or coke formation. Despite extensive research efforts, single-pass butadiene yields are limited to <23% in conventional catalytic ODH with gaseous O 2 . This article reports molten LiBr as an effective promoter to modify a redox-active perovskite oxide, i.e., La 0.8 Sr 0.2 FeO 3 (LSF), for chemical looping–oxidative dehydrogenation of n-butane (CL-ODHB). Under the working state, the redox catalyst is composed of a molten LiBr layer covering the solid LSF substrate. Characterizations and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations indicate that peroxide species formed on LSF react with molten LiBr to form active atomic Br, which act as reaction intermediates for C–H bond activation. Meanwhile, molten LiBr layer inhibits unselective CO 2 formation, leading to 42.5% butadiene yield. The redox catalyst design strategy can be extended to CL-ODH of other light alkanes such as iso-butane conversion to iso-butylene, providing a generalized approach for olefin production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Xml Interchange (exi) For Python (expy)

EXPy provides a native Python interface into the LF Energy EVerest V2G protocol stack. The protocol stack is implemented in C/C++ and compiled into shared object libraries. EXPy provides the Python Ctypes translation of the C/C++ libraries for use with pure Python software. This project eliminates the need for integrating Python with third-party communications applications and greatly reduces the code base and improves performance. The other major benefit is the ability for EXPy to support new EXI based protocols as additional V2G standards are produced (e.g. upgrade from ISO 15118-2 to ISO 15118-20).

Rohde, Kenneth [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗
DOE OSTI2024

BSDF Data generation for daylight applications: A call for international standardization

Standardized methods for generating angle-dependent, bidirectional, solar-optical properties for complex fenestration systems do not exist, which means that energy and daylight evaluations in building performance simulations often suffer from major inaccuracies. This position paper provides an overview of state-of-the-art data-driven methods for characterizing light scattering properties of fenestration materials and blind systems (e.g. fabrics, metal slats, patterned glazing), validation via laboratory, simulation and field tests, and salient issues in support of standardization of such methods via the International Standardization Organization (ISO). The ISO standard is intended to provide the fundamental underpinnings for recently mandated daylight standards that rely on bidirectional scattering distribution function data for climate-based daylight modelling and building performance simulations.

Geisler-Moroder, D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temperature Effects on Droplet Oscillation Decay with Application to Fuel Property Measurement

Observation of oscillation decay in droplets has been shown to be an effective approach in determining physical properties such as viscosity and surface tension for emerging biofuels using μl quantities. Herein this work extends the approach to higher temperatures relevant to fuel injection conditions for internal combustion engines. Experiments are conducted that use high-resolution strobed imaging of moving, heated, μm-sized, fuel droplets to capture shape oscillation decay through image processing and analysis. Two fuels are investigated, iso-butanol and a primary reference fuel (PRF 84), which is a mixture of iso-octane and n-heptane. A piezoelectric droplet generator is used to generate a continuous train of single droplets, which are given an initial perturbation and subsequently undergo damped oscillations, captured using strobed imaging. Surface tension and viscosity calculated at four different temperatures ranging from 30°C-55°C using the frequency and decay time associated with the fundamental mode are found to be within ~ 10% of reference values obtained from the literature. Complementary numerical simulations are performed that utilize a volume-of-fluid approach to track transient droplet oscillation phenomena along with heat and mass transfer in a 2D axisymmetric domain. Simulations, where droplet size and temperature can be independently varied, capture an expected decrease in oscillation frequency and increase in decay time, with increase in fuel temperature. The simulations are further used to study the relative contribution to deviations in surface tension and viscosity predictions due to heat and mass transfer from the droplet, as well as viscous effects violating the inviscid flow assumption in the droplet oscillation theory. Mass loss effects are found to be negligible. Temperature change due to heat transfer is found to have the next highest sensitivity, particularly for the more volatile PRF 84, which has a lower viscosity and associated Ohnesorge number. For isobutanol, which has a higher viscosity and Ohnesorge number, viscous effects contribute the most to deviation in fuel property predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Review of Technical Pathways

The 106-billion-gallon global (21-billion-gallon domestic) commercial jet fuel market is projected to grow to over 230 billion gallons by 2050. Cost-competitive, environmentally sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are recognized as a critical part of decoupling carbon growth from market growth. Renewable and wasted carbon can provide a path to low-cost, clean-burning, and low-soot-producing jet fuel. Research shows an opportunity to produce fuel in which aromatics are initially diluted with the addition of renewable iso-alkanes, aromatics are later fully replaced with cycloalkanes, and finally high-performance molecules that provide mission-based value to jet fuel consumers are introduced. Key to this fuel pathway is sourcing the three SAF blendstocks - iso-alkanes, cycloalkanes, and high-performing molecules - from inexpensive resources. When resourced from waste carbon, there are often additional benefits, such as cleaner water when sourcing carbon from wet sludges or less waste going to landfills when sourcing the carbon from municipal solid waste or plastic waste. Jet fuel properties differ from gasoline and diesel, so research will be most successful if it begins with the end result in mind.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness - An Introduction to the Open-Source Tool and Use Cases

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and ramp alerts for significant up/down ramps in renewable resource and the consequent net-load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing- probabilistic time series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, spatially resolved resource sites and forecasts, and system simulation and market clearing data such as transmission lines utilization, nodal prices and available generation flexibility. RAVIS uses a technology suite that is assembled to provide optimum visualization facility while maintaining a wide pool of potential deployment and client environments. The tool is designed to take advantage of web application technologies, open source visualization libraries and tooling. Utilizing this technology will enable deployment in any environment, using any operating system, and is scalable to much higher spatial and temporal scales of visualization. As a prototype of the tool and demonstrating a use case of variable renewable integration, RAVIS currently integrates site-specific solar power forecasts in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and Mid-continent ISO (MISO) footprint from the IBM WattSun forecasting platform, and also superimposes market simulation data for CAISO footprint from as in-house NREL market clearing tool. The tool has the ability to alert the viewer for excessive up or down ramps for both individual solar sites as well as regionally aggregated net-load ramps, and alerts can also be qualified with respect to available flexible generation. This report will provide an introduction to the RAVIS tool, and summarize the above mentioned capabilities, typical use cases and possible extensions of the tool. The RAVIS development team believes there are likely to be high economic and reliability benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts of variable renewables into control center visualizations and improved ramp events situational awareness for system operators and forecasting teams in the ISOs and electric utilities in comparison with their business as usual practices.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Are coupled renewable-battery power plants more valuable than independently sited installations?

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$$10/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$$15/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$$12.5/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$$12.5/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$$1.6/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$$2–$\$$13/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Keep it short: Exploring the impacts of configuration choices on the recent economics of solar-plus-battery and wind-plus-battery hybrid energy plants

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$10$/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$15$/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$12.5$/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$12.5$/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$1.6$/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$2$–$\$13$/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Final Report: Fiscal Years 2019-2021

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m 2 ) for the United States, which is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two International Organization for Standardization (ISO)/International Electrotechincal Commission (IEC) 17025 calibration facilities that provide unique, high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop: improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; new standards through the ISO, the IEC, and ASTM International; models; advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL data sets are also critical for the validation of new models and data sets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Core Design of the Holos-Quad Microreactor

The Holos-Quad micro-reactor concept, developed by HolosGen LLC, is equipped with a 22 MWt (Mega-Watt thermal) core and an integral power conversion system converting the core thermal energy into approximately 10 MWe (Mega-Watt electric). This design can be configured to support a wide range of applications. It is a very innovative high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel (TRISO) distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium in a direct Brayton cycle independently executed by four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) fitted into a hardened 40-foot container whose dimensions are in compliance with ISO shipping containers requirements. In FY2019 HolosGen LLC was awarded by the Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (DOE ARPA-E) under the MEITNER funding program. As part of the MEITNER award, the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) contributed expertise through two specialized teams: The “Design Team” and the “Resource Team”. The Design Team was dedicated to validate feasibility of the Holos-Quad core and to optimize its core design through neutronics analyses. The Resource Team was dedicated to feasibility verification via high-fidelity codes of Holos-Quad thermal-hydraulic, heat transfer, shielding, and structural aspects. This report summarizes the activities conducted by ANL Design Team. A rigorous design approach based on multi-criteria optimization and code-to-code comparison involving stochastic and high-fidelity deterministic solutions was developed and employed at several evolutionary stages of the Holos-Quad design. Several generations of the Holos-Quad core were designed within this project before converging to the current full-scale Gen 2+ design that is detailed in this report. Figure EA-1 illustrates a cross-sectional view of Gen 2+ Holos-Quad core configuration, and Figure EA-2 provides a simplified perspective view of 1-of-4 SPMs. The Holos-Quad uses four thermal-hydraulically independent SPMs locked into stationary positions during power operation, surrounded by BeO reflector and structural component fully comprised within the dimensional constraints represented by traditional ISO containers. One of the benefits of this approach is to enable transportation of each SPM promptly after irradiation in shielded containers. The core is designed to operate for approximately 8 full-power years while the reactivity controls and power conversion system enable load-following operations. The reactivity controls are represented by independent, diversified, and redundant reactivity control systems based on control drums and redundant sets of shutdown rods. The high-fidelity simulation tools were used to assess detailed power and flux distributions of the three-dimensional full-core or quarter-core of the Gen 2+ configuration. Single-physics and multi-physics simulations of the neutronics code PROTEUS and the thermal-hydraulic code System Analysis Module (SAM) were performed to analyze the Holos design configurations with detailed high-fidelity solutions. The design work performed confirmed feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept, provided realistic design description for detailed design of the operational system, and identified several core design improvements to be further considered for future reactor development activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Queued Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2021 [Slides]

Proposed large-scale electric generation and storage projects must apply for interconnection to the bulk power system via interconnection queues. While most projects that apply for interconnection are not subsequently built, data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in developer interest. Berkeley Lab compiled and analyzed data from all seven ISOs/RTOs in concert with 35 non-ISO utilities, representing an estimated 85% of all U.S. electricity load. We include all "active" projects in these generation interconnection queues through the end of 2021, as well as data on "operational" and "withdrawn" projects where those data are available. We find that the amount of new electric capacity in these queues is growing dramatically, with over 1,400 gigawatts (GW) of total generation and storage capacity now seeking connection to the grid (over 90% of which is for zero-carbon resources like solar, wind, and battery storage). Solar (676 GW) and battery storage (~420 GW) are – by far – the fastest growing resources in the queues; combined they accounted for nearly 85% of new capacity entering the queues in 2021. Substantial wind (247 GW) capacity is also seeking interconnection, 31% of which is for offshore projects (77 GW). In total, about 930 GW of zero-carbon generating capacity is currently seeking transmission access, as is 74 GW of natural gas capacity. Hybrids now comprise a large – and increasing – share of proposed projects, particularly in CAISO and the non-ISO West. 286 GW of solar hybrids (primarily solar+battery) and 19 GW of wind hybrids are currently active in the queues; nearly half of battery storage in the queues is paired with generation. However, much of this proposed capacity will be withdrawn from the queues and not built. Among a subset of queues for which data are available, only 23% of the projects seeking connection from 2000 to 2016 have subsequently been built. Completion percentages appear to be declining and are even lower for wind and solar than other resources. Additionally, wait times are on the rise: for the regions with available data, the typical duration from connection request to commercial operation increased from ~2.1 years for projects built in 2000-2010 to ~3.7 years for those built in 2011-2021.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗