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NASA NTRS2014

The DMRT-ML Model: Numerical Simulations of the Microwave Emission of Snowpacks Based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory

Microwave radiometer observations have been used to retrieve snow depth and snow water equivalent on both land and sea ice, snow accumulation on ice sheets, melt events, snow temperature, and snow grain size. Modeling the microwave emission from snow and ice physical properties is crucial to improve the quality of these retrievals. It also is crucial to improve our understanding of the radiative transfer processes within the snow cover, and the snow properties most relevant in microwave remote sensing. Our objective is to present a recent microwave emission model and its validation. The model is named DMRT-ML (DMRT Multi-Layer), and is available at http:lgge.osug.frpicarddmrtml.

ice sheet↗

NASA NTRS2016

Annual Greenland Accumulation Rates (2009-2012) from Airborne Snow Radar

Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor its surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Snow accumulation is the largest component of the ice sheet's surface mass balance, but in situ observations thereof are inherently sparse and models are difficult to evaluate at large scales. Here, we quantify recent Greenland accumulation rates using ultra-wideband (2-6.5 gigahertz) airborne snow radar data collected as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge between 2009 and 2012. We use a semi-automated method to trace the observed radiostratigraphy and then derive annual net accumulation rates for 2009-2012. The uncertainty in these radar-derived accumulation rates is on average 14 percent. A comparison of the radarderived accumulation rates and contemporaneous ice cores shows that snow radar captures both the annual and longterm mean accumulation rate accurately. A comparison with outputs from a regional climate model (MAR - Modele Atmospherique Regional for Greenland and vicinity) shows that this model matches radar-derived accumulation rates in the ice sheet interior but produces higher values over southeastern Greenland. Our results demonstrate that snow radar can efficiently and accurately map patterns of snow accumulation across an ice sheet and that it is valuable for evaluating the accuracy of surface mass balance models.

surface melt↗

NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of Retracking Algorithms Using Airborne Radar and Laser Altimeter Measurements of the Greenland Ice Sheet

This paper compares four continental ice sheet radar altimeter retracking algorithms using airborne radar and laser altimeter data taken over the Greenland ice sheet in 1991. The refurbished Advanced Application Flight Experiment (AAFE) airborne radar altimeter has a large range window and stores the entire return waveform during flight. Once the return waveforms are retracked, or post-processed to obtain the most accurate altitude measurement possible, they are compared with the high-precision Airborne Oceanographic Lidar (AOL) altimeter measurements. The AAFE waveforms show evidence of varying degrees of both surface and volume scattering from different regions of the Greenland ice sheet. The AOL laser altimeter, however, obtains a return only from the surface of the ice sheet. Retracking altimeter waveforms with a surface scattering model results in a good correlation with the laser measurements in the wet and dry-snow zones, but in the percolation region of the ice sheet, the deviation between the two data sets is large due to the effects of subsurface and volume scattering. The Martin et al model results in a lower bias than the surface scattering model, but still shows an increase in the noise level in the percolation zone. Using an Offset Center of Gravity algorithm to retrack altimeter waveforms results in measurements that are only slightly affected by subsurface and volume scattering and, despite a higher bias, this algorithm works well in all regions of the ice sheet. A cubic spline provides retracked altitudes that agree with AOL measurements over all regions of Greenland. This method is not sensitive to changes in the scattering mechanisms of the ice sheet and it has the lowest noise level and bias of all the retracking methods presented.

Ferraro, Ellen J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Physically Based and Stochastic Models for Greenland Moulin Formation, Longevity, and Spatial Distribution

Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially, from the surface to the bed, via moulins. Identification of moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form remain poorly understood. We seek to leverage information gained from the development of a physical model of moulin formation, remotely sensed ice-sheet data products, and an analytic model of ice-flow perturbations to develop a predictive stochastic model of moulin distribution across Greenland. Here we present initial results from the physical model of moulin formation and characterize the sensitivity of moulin geometry to a range of model parameters. This parameterization of moulin formation is the first step in developing a stochastic model that will be a predictive, computationally efficient representation of the englacial hydrologic system.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice shelf geometries, but where the ocean reaches a balance with prescribed far-field ocean conditions. Different thermal transfer coefficient values (ranging from 0.011 to 0.2) are used for each model in the melting parameterisation to achieve a common, tuned melt rate since the models cover a range of types of vertical coordinates, ice–ocean boundary layer treatments, and numerical schemes. These model differences lead to spread in the resultant ocean properties, circulation, boundary-layer structure and spatial distribution of melting. We also highlight similarities between models, such as a shared linear relationship across most models between melt rate and overturning and barotropic streamfunctions during the spin-up and spin-down, demonstrating a robust relationship between melt and circulation across models and forcing conditions. The ISOMIP+ results provide a systematic comparison of ice shelf cavity-capable ocean models. However, we also demonstrate the need for realistic ice shelf–ocean model intercomparison projects (some already underway) to assess model biases and inter-model variation against sparse observations. Further research is needed to understand the differences between models and further improve our modelled representations of the ice–ocean boundary layer and ice shelf cavity circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate

Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the 21 st -century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.

Gorte, Tessa↗

NASA NTRS1981

A climate model with cryodynamics and geodynamics

A simplified, zero-dimensional model of the climatic system is presented which attempts to incorporate mechanisms important on the time scale of glaciation cycles: 10,000 to 100,000 years. The ocean-atmosphere radiation balance, continental ice sheet plastic flow, and upper mantle viscous flow are taken into account, with stress on the interaction between the ice sheets and the upper mantle. The model exhibits free, self-sustained oscillations of an amplitude and period comparable to those found in the paleoclimatic record of glaciations, offering mild support for the idea that unforced oscillations can actually exist in the real climatic system itself. The careful study of the interplay between internal mechanisms and external forcing is held to represent an interesting challenge to the theory of ice ages.

Ghil, M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Anthropocene↗

NASA NTRS2007

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.

vanderVeen, Cornelius↗

NASA NTRS2022

Controls on Greenland Moulin Geometry and Evolution From the Moulin Shape Model

Nearly all meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets is routed englacially through moulins, which collectively comprise approximately 10–14% of the efficient englacial–subglacial hydrologic system. Therefore, the geometry and evolution of moulins has the potential to influence subglacial water pressure variations, ice motion, and the runoff hydrograph delivered to the ocean. We develop the Moulin Shape (MouSh) model, a time-evolving model of moulin geometry. MouSh models ice deformation around a moulin using both viscous and elastic rheologies and models melting within the moulin through heat dissipation from turbulent water flow, both above and below the water line. We force MouSh with idealized and realistic surface melt inputs. Our results show that variations in surface melt change the geometry of a moulin by approximately 30% daily and by over 100% seasonally. These size variations cause observable differences in moulin water storage capacity, moulin water levels, and subglacial channel size compared to a static, cylindrical moulin. Our results suggest that moulins are significant storage reservoirs for meltwater, with storage capacity and water levels varying over multiple timescales. Representing moulin geometry within subglacial hydrologic models would therefore improve their accuracy, especially over seasonal periods or in regions where overburden pressures are high.

Moulin↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Signature of Ozone Depletion in Recent Antarctic Precipitation Change: A Study with the Community Earth System Model

Although precipitation is a primary control on Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass balance, long-term historical AIS precipitation trends and their underlying external climate drivers remain inconclusive. In this study, we use a novel pair of climate model ensembles to identify a simulated spatial signature of ozone depletion-forced AIS precipitation change. Distinct areas of little change or precipitation decrease, arising from interaction between ozone depletion-forced atmospheric circulation changes and ice sheet topography, are outweighed by large-scale precipitation increases. This signature bears notable similarities to a new ice core-based reconstruction of AIS accumulation change and yields a significant increase in annual integrated precipitation (38 ± 10 Gt/year over the 1986–2005 period or 51 ± 11 Gt/year over the 1991–2005 period). Remarkably, this simulated ozone depletion-forced precipitation change is of a similar absolute magnitude to recent observed AIS mass loss trends and as a consequence, it may play a role in dampening recent AIS sea level rise contributions.

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Physical Models of Layered Polar Firn Brightness Temperatures from 0.5 to 2 GHz

We investigate physical effects influencing 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures of layered polar firn to support the Ultra Wide Band Software Defined Radiometer (UWBRAD) experiment to be conducted in Greenland and in Antarctica. We find that because ice particle grain sizes are very small compared to the 0.5-2 GHz wavelengths, volume scattering effects are small. Variations in firn density over cm- to m-length scales, however, cause significant effects. Both incoherent and coherent models are used to examine these effects. Incoherent models include a 'cloud model' that neglects any reflections internal to the ice sheet, and the DMRT-ML and MEMLS radiative transfer codes that are publicly available. The coherent model is based on the layered medium implementation of the fluctuation dissipation theorem for thermal microwave radiation from a medium having a nonuniform temperature. Density profiles are modeled using a stochastic approach, and model predictions are averaged over a large number of realizations to take into account an averaging over the radiometer footprint. Density profiles are described by combining a smooth average density profile with a spatially correlated random process to model density fluctuations. It is shown that coherent model results after ensemble averaging depend on the correlation lengths of the vertical density fluctuations. If the correlation length is moderate or long compared with the wavelength (approximately 0.6x longer or greater for Gaussian correlation function without regard for layer thinning due to compaction), coherent and incoherent model results are similar (within approximately 1 K). However, when the correlation length is short compared to the wavelength, coherent model results are significantly different from the incoherent model by several tens of kelvins. For a 10-cm correlation length, the differences are significant between 0.5 and 1.1 GHz, and less for 1.1-2 GHz. Model results are shown to be able to match the v-pol SMOS data closely and predict the h-pol data for small observation angles.

layered polar firn emission↗

NASA NTRS2021

Effect of Ice Sheet Thickness on Formation of the Hiawatha Impact Crater

The discovery of a large putative impact crater buried beneath Hiawatha Glacier along the margin of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet has reinvigorated interest into the nature of large impacts into thick ice masses. This circular structure is relatively shallow and exhibits a small central uplift, whereas a peak-ring morphology is expected. This discrepancy may be due to long-term and ongoing subglacial erosion but may also be explained by a relatively recent impact through the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is expected to alter the final crater morphology. Here we model crater formation using hydrocode simulations, varying pre-impact ice thickness and impactor composition over crystalline target rock. We find that an ice-sheet thickness of 1.5 or 2 km results in a crater morphology that is consistent with the present morphology of this structure. Further, an ice sheet that thick substantially inhibits ejection of rocky material, which might explain the absence of rocky ejecta in most existing Greenland deep ice cores if the impact occurred during the late Pleistocene. From the present morphology of the putative Hiawatha impact crater alone, we cannot distinguish between an older crater formed by a pre-Pleistocene impact into ice-free bedrock or a younger, Pleistocene impact into locally thick ice, but based on our modeling we conclude that latter scenario is possible.

Elizabeth A. Silber↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Boundary conditions↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of a Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Regional "clear sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 deg C to 72+/-0.10 deg C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near 0 deg C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and to provide an IST dataset of Greenland for modelers that provides uncertainties, we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of daily "clear-sky" IST of the Greenland Ice Sheet, from 1982 to the present using AVHRR (1982 - present) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000 - present) at a resolution of approximately 5 km. Known issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover (surface temperatures can be different under clouds vs. clear areas) and cross-calibration in the overlap period between AVHRR instruments, and between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, mainly due to clouds, time-series of satellite IST do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products and biases will be calculated.

Hall, Dorthy K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observations of polar ice using enhanced resolution microwave scatterometer data

Increasing interest in the role of ice sheets in regulating global climate has created a need for synoptic interannual recording and monitoring of the earth's major ice sheets. Based on their ability to 'see' into ice, microwave remote sensing instruments are well-suited for monitoring the polar regions. Although microwave radar has increased capabilities over some aspects of visible wavelength systems, there are tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can make high resolution images, but is limited in ground coverage over polar regions because of high data rates and a lack of receiving stations. Microwave scatterometers, originally designed for measuring winds over the ocean, are capable of greater ground coverage in polar regions, but are inherently low resolution instruments. However, a recently developed resolution enhancement technique can generate enhanced resolution scatterometer images. In this paper the algorithm is applied to create enhanced resolution images from Seasat and ERS-1 scatterometer data over. Time series of medium-scale radar images for Greenland and Antarctica and the surrounding seas are presented. The growth and shrinkage of the southern polar sea-ice throughout a full annual cycle is illustrated with the seasonal cycle of patterns on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets clearly evident. Using the time series and simple scattering models, the locations of key ice facies in Greenland are determined.

Long, David G.↗

NASA NTRS2016

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates the quantitative interpretation of ice core signals but also makes the stable ice isotope signal a more robust regional indicator of climate, speakers noted. Meeting participants agreed that to further our understanding of these relationships, we need more process-focused field and laboratory campaigns.

Greenland↗