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At least 181 records · Page 10

Estimation of Interbasin Transport Using Ocean Bottom Pressure: Theory and Model for Asian Marginal Seas

The Asian Marginal Seas are interconnected by a number of narrow straits, such as the Makassar Strait connecting the Pacific Ocean with the Indian Ocean, the Luzon Strait connecting the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean, and the Korea/Tsushima Strait connecting the East China Sea with the Japan/East Sea. Here we propose a method, the combination of the "geostrophic control" formula of Garrett and Toulany (1982) and the "hydraulic control" theory of Whitehead et al. (1974), allowing the use of satellite-observed sea-surface-height (SSH) and ocean-bottom-pressure (OBP) data for estimating interbasin transport. The new method also allows separating the interbasin transport into surface and bottom fluxes that play an important role in maintaining the mass balance of the regional oceans. Comparison with model results demonstrates that the combined method can estimate the seasonal variability of the strait transports and is significantly better than the method of using SSH or OBP alone.

hydraulic control↗

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Lau, K. M.↗

Maritime Aerosol Network as a Component of AERONET - First Results and Comparison with Global Aerosol Models and Satellite Retrievals

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. Over 80 cruises were completed through early 2010 with deployments continuing. Measurement areas included various parts of the Atlantic Ocean, the Northern and Southern Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and inland seas. MAN deploys Microtops handheld sunphotometers and utilizes a calibration procedure and data processing traceable to AERONET. Data collection included areas that previously had no aerosol optical depth (AOD) coverage at all, particularly vast areas of the Southern Ocean. The MAN data archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we present results of AOD measurements over the oceans, and make a comparison with satellite AOD retrievals and model simulations.

Smirnov, A.↗

Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

Wang, Hailong↗

Exceptional Warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January through March of 2020: The Roles of Unforced and Forced Modes of Atmospheric Variability

Much of northern Eurasia experienced record high temperatures during the first three months of 2020, and the eastern United States experienced a significant heat wave during March. In this study, we show that the above episodes of extraordinary warmth reflect to a large extent the unusual persistence and large amplitude of three well-known modes of atmospheric variability: the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. We employ a “replay” approach in which simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM are constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over specified regions of the globe in order to identify the underlying forcings and regions that acted to maintain these modes well beyond their typical submonthly time scales. We show that an extreme positive AO played a major role in the surface warming over Eurasia, with forcing from the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions acting to maintain its positive phase. Forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic regions produced positive NAO-like responses, contributing to the warming over eastern North America and Europe. The strong heat wave that developed over eastern North America during March was primarily associated with an extreme negative PNA that developed as an instability of the North Pacific jet, with tropical forcing providing support for a prolonged negative phase. A diagnosis of the zonally symmetric circulation shows that the above extratropical surface warming occurred underneath a deep layer of tropospheric warming, driven by stationary eddy-induced changes in the mean meridional circulation.

Northern Hemisphere↗

Property fluxes at 30 deg S and their implications for the Pacific-Indian throughflow and the global heat budget

The extent of exchange between the Pacific and Indian Oceans through the Indonesian Archipelago and the net global oceanic heat flux are determined using six hydrographic basinwide sections, two in each of the three major ocean basins. Globally, at 30 deg S, the estimated net oceanic heat flux is -0.7 +/- 0.1 PW, dominated by a large southward flux in the Indian Ocean. Large equatorward heat flux values in the South Atlantic Basin are not consistent with the data. Although the data are consistent with some water following the 'warm water' return path for North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), the 'cold water' path must play the dominant role in the maintenance of the global thermohaline cell associated with the formation process of NADW.

Macdonald, Alison M.↗

Evaluating the Large-Scale Hydrological Cycle Response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

mid-Pliocene↗

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗

Relationship Between Intraseasonal Oscillation and Subtropical Wind Maxima Over the South Pacific Ocean

The significance of tropical heat sources on higher latitude jet streams has been examined by numerous investigators. Hurrell and Vincent (1990) provide a summary of many of these investigations in their observational case study of the relationship between tropical heating and subtropical wind maxima in the Southern Hemisphere during SOP-1, FGGE. They showed that the divergent outflow from tropical heating associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), acted on by the coriolis force, was an important factor in maintaining the subtropical jet on the poleward side of the SPCZ during the period, 6-20 January 1979. They found a similar, but weaker relationship, over the southern Indian Ocean from 3-17 February 1979, a period when the SPCZ heating was greatly reduced and the jet was essentially non-existent. Since their findings were based on a case study and involved the use of the highly-specialized FGGE data set, the natural questions which arose were: (1) Is this relationship a regular feature of the circulation over the South Pacific? and, (2) If so, can it be detected with a routine data set? Another question posed by Hurrell and Vincent in their papers was:(3) How important was the intraseasonal oscillation in causing the enhanced heating and divergent outflow in the Pacific Ocean in January and southern Indian Ocean in February? The purpose of the present paper is to address the answer to these three questions. To accomplish this, some circulation features for an entire warm season in the Southern Hemisphere were examined. The year selected was 1984-85, and the warm season consisted of the 6-month period, 1 November 1984 - 30 April 1985. This period was chosen because there were numerous cases of the westerly wind maxima over the South Pacific and the intraseasonal oscillation was well documented.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems

In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not well established. Here, we identify the tropical and extratropical forcings that explain ~75% of area-averaged seasonal variability in CSWA winter precipitation. Tropical forcing comes from the indirect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pathway, the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean precipitation variability. This mode is coupled with ENSO-related Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. A direct ENSO influence on CSWA does not extend beyond its Indian Ocean connection. Extratropical forcing comes from a large-scale mode of internal atmospheric variability. The spatial structure, variability of tropical forcing, and teleconnection with CSWA winter precipitation are skillfully depicted in two seasonal forecasting systems: the fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR). Extratropical forcing’s spatial structure is also produced skillfully in the two modelling systems; however, the representation of its interannual variability and teleconnection requires improvement. While SEAS5 displays skill in representing extratropical forcing influence on CSWA winter precipitation and marginal skill in reproducing interannual variability, SPEAR has negligible ability in both areas. Consequently, these models have limited predictive skills over CSWA in winter. While improvements in representing extratropical forcing may be inherently limited as it arises from internal atmospheric variability, further research is needed to establish its predictability limits fully.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

South African TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter experiment

The area surrounding the southern tip of Africa contains a juxtaposition of a variety of interesting and climatically relevant features. On the Indian Ocean side, the Agulhas Current with its tributaries form a conduit through which much of the southern Indian Ocean surface flow is focused. South of the continent, this flow is fragmented and partially injected into the Atlantic Ocean and across the Subtropical Convergence into the Southern Ocean. To the west of the subcontinent, the circulation of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre in the Cape Basin interacts with the vigorous Benguela upwelling regime. The creation, transformation, and transport of water masses and the intra-annual and climatic importance of all these processes have been specifically recognized by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). The South African TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Experiment addresses many of these issues through four mutually complementary and interrelated subprojects.

Gruendlingh, Marten L.↗

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and Smoke Interactions: Satellite Observations During the 1997 Indonesian Fires

Biomass burning generates hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide that lead to tropospheric ozone pollution. Other combustion products form soot and various aerosol particles that make up smoke. Since early 1997 smoke and tropospheric ozone have been monitored in real-time from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at toms.gsfc.nasa.gov (smoke aerosol) and metosrv2.umd.edu/-tropo (tropospheric ozone). The striking increase in smoke and tropospheric ozone observed during the 1997 Indonesian fires was the first extreme episode observed. During the August-November period, plumes of excess ozone and smoke coincided at times but were decoupled at other times, a phenomenon followed with trajectories. Thus, trans-boundary evolution of smoke and ozone differed greatly. The second discovery of the 1997 TOMS record was a dynamical interaction of ozone with the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that led to a jump in tropospheric ozone in March 1997 over the entire Indian Ocean, well ahead of the intense burning period. A climatology of smoke and tropospheric ozone from a 1980's TOMS instrument shows offsets in the timing of these pollutants - further evidence that factors other than biomass burning exert a strong influence on tropical tropospheric ozone.

Thompson, A. M.↗

Tropical intraseasonal oscillation, super cloud clusters, and cumulus convection schemes

A new framework for interpreting the origin of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO), which avoids the speed and scale selection problems in the previous theories, is proposed in this study. In this interpretation TISO is viewed as an oscillation driven by an eastward moving convective region. This convective region consists of one or more super cloud clusters originating in the Indian Ocean and terminating in mid-Pacific, and is then followed by another convective region arising in the Indian Ocean in a period of 40-50 days. Additionally, a formal analogy is pointed out between super cloud clusters and the middle-latitude baroclinic wave packets. This study includes a simulation of TISO in a 2D model to support our interpretation. Experiments were conducted with four different convection schemes. The authors advocate that the successful simulation of TISO depends on the successful simulation of super clouds cluster, which in turn depends on the successful simulation of the life cycle of cloud clusters, which further in turn depends on the choice of cumulus convection scheme. What makes a cumulus convection scheme successful in simulating TISO is discussed.

Chao, Winston C.↗

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗

Bathymetry estimates in the southern oceans from Seasat altimetry

A 70-day Seasat altimeter set, where altitude was determined by the delay of a radar signal before return, was high pass filtered to obtain bathymetric data on the southern ocean. Variations were estimated over cross-track passages over the same points, and longer wavelength effects were removed to reveal the shorter wavelength geoid features. Edge effects near land, subtle geoid structure features at continental margins, smaller boundary seas, and lakes were preserved by the high pass filter, which involved substracting a constant height from each 6 x 6 deg square region. A volcanic origin was indicated for the nearly continuous Louisville Ridge, which had a major elongate plateau or positive gravity anomaly located just eastward and running east-west. A large Conrad Ridge was found in the Indian Ocean, compared to previous charts. The Indian Ocean was also found to contain more rises and plateaus than previously mapped.

Dixon, T. H.↗

The Field Operations and Early Results of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is an international field experiment with the objective to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to fluctuation of the regional hydrologic cycle over Southeast Asian, southern East Asia, aiming at improving monsoon prediction. In this article, we present a description of the major meteorological observation platforms during the Intensive Observing Periods (IOP) of SCSMEX. We also provide highlights of early results and discussions of the role of SCSMEX in providing valuable in-situ data for calibration of satellite rainfall estimate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results indicate that there are distinctive stages in the onset of the South China Sea monsoon including possibly strong influences from extratropical systems as well as from convection over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. There are some tantalizing evidence of complex interactions between the supercloud cluster development over the Indian Ocean, advancing southwest monsoon flow over the South China Sea, midlatitude disturbances and the western Pacific subtropical high, possibly contributing to the disastrous flood over Yangtze River Basin in China during June 1998.

Lau, K. M.↗

Connections Between the Spring Breakup of the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, Stationary Waves, and Air-sea Roughness

A robust connection between the drag on surface-layer winds and the stratospheric circulation is demonstrated in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Specifically, an updated parameterization of roughness at the air-sea interface, in which surface roughness is increased for moderate wind speeds (4ms to 20ms), leads to a decrease in model biases in Southern Hemispheric ozone, polar cap temperature, stationary wave heat flux, and springtime vortex breakup. A dynamical mechanism is proposed whereby increased surface roughness leads to improved stationary waves. Increased surface roughness leads to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence primarily in the Indian Ocean sector (where eddies are strongest climatologically) in September and October. The localization of the eddy momentum flux convergence anomaly in the Indian Ocean sector leads to a zonally asymmetric reduction in zonal wind and, by geostrophy, to a wavenumber-1 stationary wave pattern. This tropospheric stationary wave pattern leads to enhanced upwards wave activity entering the stratosphere. The net effect is an improved Southern Hemisphere vortex: the vortex breaks up earlier in spring (i.e., the spring late-breakup bias is partially ameliorated) yet is no weaker in mid-winter. More than half of the stratospheric biases appear to be related to the surface wind speed biases. As many other chemistry climate models use a similar scheme for their surface layer momentum exchange and have similar biases in the stratosphere, we expect that results from GEOSCCM may be relevant for other climate models.

air-sea interaction↗

Hydrologic Processes Associated with the First Transition of the Asian Summer Monsoon: A TRMM Pilot Study

We present results of a pilot study of the evolution of large scale hydrologic processes associated with the first transition of the Asian summer monsoon in conjunction with the launching of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) in May, 1998. Using a combination of satellite-estimated rainfall, moisture, surface wind and sea surface temperature, we present some interesting and hitherto unknown features in large scale atmospheric and oceanic hydrologic processes associated with the fluctuation of the SCS monsoon. Results show that, climatologically, the SCS monsoon occurs during mid-May when major convection zone shifts from the eastern Indian Ocean/southern Indochina to the SCS. Simultaneously with the SCS monsoon onset is the development of a moist tongue and frontal rainband emanating from northern SCS, across southern China and the East China Sea to southern Japan as well as the enhancement of equatorial convection in the western Pacific ITCZ. Analysis of the satellite-derived moisture and rainfall show that the onset of the SCS monsoon during 1997 was preceded by the development of eastward propagating supercloud clusters over the Indian Ocean. The satellite data also reveal a strong onset vortex over the SCS and large scale cooling and warming patterns over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. These features signal a major shift of the large-scale hydrologic cycle in the ocean-atmosphere system, which underpins the SCS monsoon onset. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the observational platform of SCSMEX and a call for the utility of satellite data, field observations and models for comprehensive studies of the Asian monsoon.

Lau, William K. M.↗