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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Latent-Variable Formulation of the Poisson Canonical Polyadic Tensor Model: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Fisher Information

We establish parameter inference for the Poisson canonical polyadic (PCP) tensor model through a latent-variable formulation. Our approach exploits the observation that any random PCP tensor can be derived by marginalizing an unobservable random tensor of one dimension larger. The loglikelihood of this larger dimensional tensor, referred to as the “complete” loglikelihood, is comprised of multiple rank one PCP loglikelihoods. Using this methodology, we first derive maximum likelihood estimators for the PCP model and demonstrate that several existing algorithms for fitting non-negative matrix and tensor factorizations are Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Next, we derive the observed and expected Fisher information matrices for the PCP model. The Fisher information provides us crucial insights into the well-posedness of the tensor model, such as the role that tensor rank plays in identifiability and indeterminacy. For the special case of rank one PCP models, we demonstrate that these results are greatly simplified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Differentiable multiphase flow model for physics-informed machine learning in reservoir pressure management

Accurate subsurface reservoir pressure control is extremely challenging due to geological heterogeneity and multiphase fluid-flow dynamics. Predicting behavior in this setting relies on high-fidelity physics-based simulations that are computationally expensive. Yet, the uncertain, heterogeneous properties that control these flows make it necessary to perform many of these expensive simulations, which is often prohibitive. To address these challenges, we introduce a physics-informed machine learning workflow that couples a fully differentiable multiphase flow simulator, which is implemented in the DPFEHM framework with a convolutional neural network (CNN). The CNN learns to predict fluid extraction rates from heterogeneous permeability fields to enforce pressure limits at critical reservoir locations. By incorporating transient multiphase flow physics into the training process, our method enables more practical and accurate predictions for realistic injection-extraction scenarios compared to previous works. To speed up training, we pretrain the model on single-phase, steady-state simulations and then finetune it on full multiphase scenarios, which dramatically reduces the computational cost. We demonstrate that high-accuracy training can be achieved with fewer than three thousand full-physics multiphase flow simulations – compared to previous estimates requiring up to ten million. This drastic reduction in the number of simulations is achieved by leveraging transfer learning from much less expensive single phase simulations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decoupling plasma, catalyst, and gaseous mechanisms for non-oxidative methane conversion

Direct non-oxidative methane (CH 4 ) conversion to value-added hydrogen (H 2 ) and C 2 products remains hindered by fundamental catalytic scaling constraints and rapid surface deactivation at elevated temperatures. Plasma-enabled catalysis offers a promising route to overcome the thermodynamic and kinetic barriers of direct non-oxidative methane upgrading at mild conditions, yet control over C–C product selectivity and catalyst stability remains elusive. Here, we establish a unified mechanistic framework including Langmuir–Hinshelwood (L–H) and Langmuir–Rideal (L–R) mechanisms that disentangles the roles of plasma excitation (including vibrationally activated species and radicals), surface temperature (T sur ), and catalyst binding energy in steering CH 4 conversion to H 2 and C 2 hydrocarbons. Through a combination of density functional theory (DFT) informed microkinetic modeling, in situ and ex situ surface characterization, and product quantification under dielectric barrier discharge conditions, we show that vibrationally excited CH 4 lowers activation barriers selectively for dissociative chemisorption, enabling surface activation across a wide range of transition metal catalysts at low thermal energy input. We find that once CH 4 is dissociatively chemisorbed, the branching between C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 4 , and C 2 H 6 is governed by surface properties (carbon binding energy, T sur , etc), regardless of plasma excitation. The DFT informed microkinetic model decouples the effects of molecular activation from surface properties and indentifies operating windows that maximize target yields while suppressing carbon accumulation and subsequent catalytic inactivation. Experiments on polycrystalline Cu/Al 2 O 3 , Ni/Al 2 O 3 , and Pt/Al 2 O 3 validate these predictions, revealing catalyst-dependent branching toward ethane or ethylene and distinct deactivation profiles. We unify these trends into a generalized three-dimensional plasma-thermal-catalytic design space, from which reduced descriptors such as T vib /T sur in the limit of vibrationally excited L–H pathways emerge as predictive metrics. These results enable rational tuning of methane conversion pathways and unlock selective C 2 formation using earth-abundant metals under mild plasma conditions.

catalyst inactivation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate Model Guided Optimization of Expensive Black-Box Multi-Objective Problems: A Posteriori Methods

Many engineering applications require the simultaneous optimization of multiple conflicting objective functions. Often, these objective functions are evaluated using highly accurate computer simulations that are computationally too expensive to be evaluated hundreds or thousands of times during optimization. Thus, the goal is to find good approximations of the Pareto front using as few of these expensive simulations as possible. Here, we describe an optimization approach based on surrogate models and diverse sampling strategies to accelerate the search for the Pareto solutions. We use a separate surrogate model for approximating each objective function and then we use the surrogate models to inform where additional expensive simulations should be run. The surrogate models are updated in an active learning framework whenever new information from the expensive simulations becomes available. The sampling strategies aim at balancing local improvements of the approximate Pareto front and global exploration to identify the extrema and fill in large gaps of the approximate Pareto front. We demonstrate on a large set of benchmark problems the effectiveness of the method for finding good approximations of the Pareto front.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A crystal-plasticity-informed Gaussian Process Regression model to capture anisotropy in single crystal shape memory alloys

This work presents a machine learning (ML) framework that model the anisotropic actuation responses in a shape memory alloy. A Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) based ML model is trained on a set of different crystal orientations subjected to different actuation conditions. The training employed thermo-mechanical responses from a crystal-plasticity model that captures phase-transformation, stress-induced plasticity, and transformation-induced plasticity. Further, on training the GPR-ML model at fixed stress level for different orientations, it captured the thermo-mechanical responses accounting for the anisotropy, and predicted responses for new orientations with good accuracy. The GPR-ML model is able to capture the transformation temperature variations even when trained using multiple stress levels, and the transformation strain showed significant deviations. The developed GPR-ML model gave reasonable predictions for an unexplored sample set of orientations and loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed KNN milling stability model with process damping effects

This paper describes a k-nearest neighbors, or KNN, model for milling stability including process damping effects. A physics-based, frequency domain milling stability solution is used to generate the training data, but does not incorporate process damping effects. The data set is then updated using limited tests to capture the process damping behavior. A “stair step” approach is used to select the test points, where a first spindle speed-axial depth combination is selected based on the physics-based stability map, subsequent tests are defined using the previous test result, and data points are updated by knowledge of process damping behavior and the test results. Furthermore, the KNN modeling approach demonstrates the ability to predict both stable and unstable results, including process damping behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Natural Language Processing to Inform Agent-Based Modeling: With Application to Modeling Adoption of Medium-Duty Electric Vehicles

Agent-based socio-technical modeling of medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) electric vehicle (EV) adoption has the potential to provide analysis, prediction, and gui. This paper describes new applications of text analysis developed through machine learning (ML) to build and understand relevant topics and their saliency in the published discourse on adoption of MDHD EVs. This work contributes to the state of the art in topic mining models by defining a new metric of topic ranking (START) that quantifies the importance of predefined topics within the corpus using weighted results for predefined topics from two topic modeling approaches: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and BERTopic. The START metric is then demonstrated in practice to model how academia and industry view the EV adoption process based on the respective texts published by these groups. Results show that academic literature places more emphasis on categories of interests such as norms/attitudes and adopter knowledge, while trade journals tend to emphasize long-term cost more than academia. The two bodies of literature agree on the importance of policy and incentives in MDHD EV adoption. Together these results illustrate the potential to use ML-based text analysis to populate the characteristics of agent-based socio-technical models.

Electric vehicle adoption, fleet electrification, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of surrogate constitutive models for viscoplastic creep simulation of HT-9 steel

Mechanistic microstructure-informed constitutive models for the mechanical response of polycrystals are a cornerstone of computational materials science. However, as these models become increasingly more complex – often involving coupled differential equations describing the effect of specific deformation modes – their associated computational costs can become prohibitive, particularly in optimization or uncertainty quantification tasks that require numerous model evaluations. To address this challenge, surrogate constitutive models that balance accuracy and computational efficiency are highly desirable. Data-driven surrogate models, that learn the constitutive relation directly from data, have emerged as a promising solution. In this work, we develop two local surrogate models for the viscoplastic response of a steel: a piecewise response surface method and a mixture of experts model. These surrogates are designed to adapt to complex material behavior, which may vary with material parameters or operating conditions. The surrogate constitutive models are applied to creep simulations of HT-9 steel, an alloy of considerable interest to the nuclear energy sector due to its high tolerance to radiation damage, using training data generated from viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) simulations. In conclusion, we define a set of test metrics to numerically assess the accuracy of our surrogate models for predicting viscoplastic material behavior, and show that the mixture of experts model outperforms the piecewise response surface method in terms of accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic theory of angular momentum distributions across the full range of fission fragments

Modern nuclear theory provides qualitative insights into the fundamental mechanisms of nuclear fission and is increasingly capable of making reliable quantitative predictions. Most quantities of interest pertain to the primary fission fragments, whose subsequent decay is typically modeled using statistical reaction models. Consequently, a key objective of fission theory is to inform these models by predicting the initial conditions of the primary fragments. Here, in this work, we employ a framework that combines joint angular momentum and particle number projection with time-dependent configuration mixing to calculate the angular momentum distributions of primary fragments. Focusing on the benchmark cases of neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu , we predict—for the first time—microscopic angular momentum distributions for all fragments observed in experiments. Our results reveal a pronounced sawtooth pattern in the average angular momentum as a function of fragment mass, consistent with recent measurements. Additionally, we observe substantial variations in angular momentum distributions along isobaric chains, indicating that commonly used empirical formulas lack sufficient accuracy. We also quantify a strong correlation between the angular momentum and the deformation of the fragments at scission, and a weak correlation in the magnitude of the angular momentum between fragment partners. The generated data will enable estimation of the impact of microscopic distributions on fission spectra, paving the way toward fission modeling based on microscopic inputs.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph network heterogeneity predicts interplant wake losses

Wind plants generate large-scale wakes, which can affect the performance of neighboring installations. Such wakes are challenging to estimate due to the inherent complexity in modeling wake interactions between large quantities of turbines at various distances. Weighted directed graph networks can inform complex models by linking turbine pairs into chains of upstream and downstream neighbors for a given wind direction. A novel interpretation of the graph network adjacency matrix is proposed where each element of the matrix represents the cumulative impact of upstream turbines on an individual. In this study, wake losses were estimated with an engineering wake model across a range of inflow conditions for nine parametric variations of a system containing two neighboring wind plants. The parametric nature of the study isolates turbine spacing within the plant, separation distance between plants, and wind direction as the main drivers of wake losses. Spatial heterogeneity is computed from the weighted average adjacency matrix of each plant arrangement. The proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than wake modeling and does not require detailed turbine information or atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the weighted average adjacency matrix provides insight on the spatial organization of wake losses at various scales. Plant heterogeneity is correlated with wake losses within and among plants. Framing wind plant wake interaction in terms of graph network spatial heterogeneity provides an efficient approach for predicting wake losses within and among neighboring wind plants with applications to other complex systems where wake interactions are key factor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quick-and-Easy Validation of Protein–Ligand Binding Models Using Fragment-Based Semiempirical Quantum Chemistry

Electronic structure calculations in enzymes converge very slowly with respect to the size of the model region that is described using quantum mechanics (QM), requiring hundreds of atoms to obtain converged results and exhibiting substantial sensitivity (at least in smaller models) to which amino acids are included in the QM region. As such, there is considerable interest in developing automated procedures to construct a QM model region based on well-defined criteria. However, testing such procedures is burdensome due to the cost of large-scale electronic structure calculations. Here, we show that semiempirical methods can be used as alternatives to density functional theory (DFT) to assess convergence in sequences of models generated by various automated protocols. The cost of these convergence tests is reduced even further by means of a many-body expansion. We use this approach to examine convergence (with respect to model size) of protein–ligand binding energies. Fragment-based semiempirical calculations afford well-converged interaction energies in a tiny fraction of the cost required for DFT calculations. Two-body interactions between the ligand and single-residue amino acid fragments afford a low-cost way to construct a “QM-informed” enzyme model of reduced size, furnishing an automatable active-site model-building procedure. This provides a streamlined, user-friendly approach for constructing ligand binding-site models that needs neither a priori information nor manual adjustments. Extension to model-building for thermochemical calculations should be straightforward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anatomy of information scrambling and decoherence in the integrable Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

The growth of information scrambling, captured by out-of-time-order correlation functions (OTOCs), is a central indicator of the nature of many-body quantum dynamics. Here, we compute analytically the complete time dependence of the OTOC for an integrable Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model, 𝑁 Majoranas with random two-body interactions of infinite range, coupled to a Markovian bath at finite temperature. In the limit of no coupling to the bath, the time evolution of scrambling experiences different stages. For 𝑡≲√𝑁, after an initial polynomial growth, the OTOC approaches saturation in a power-law fashion with oscillations superimposed. At 𝑡∼√𝑁, the OTOC reverses trend and starts to decrease linearly in time. The reason for this linear decrease is that, despite being a subleading 1/𝑁 effect, the OTOC in this region is governed by the spectral form factor of the antisymmetric couplings of the SYK model. The linear decrease stops at 𝑡∼2⁢𝑁, the Heisenberg time, where saturation occurs. The effect of the environment is an overall exponential decay of the OTOC for times longer than the inverse of the coupling strength to the bath. Here, the oscillations at 𝑡≲√𝑁 indicate lack of thermalization—a desired feature for better performance of quantum information devices.

Open quantum systems & decoherence↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systems-Level Modeling for CRISPR-Based Metabolic Engineering

The CRISPR-Cas system has enabled the development of sophisticated, multigene metabolic engineering programs through the use of guide RNA-directed activation or repression of target genes. To optimize biosynthetic pathways in microbial systems, we need improved models to inform design and implementation of transcriptional programs. Recent progress has resulted in new modeling approaches for identifying gene targets and predicting the efficacy of guide RNA targeting. Genome-scale and flux balance models have successfully been applied to identify targets for improving biosynthetic production yields using combinatorial CRISPR-interference (CRISPRi) programs. Here, the advent of new approaches for tunable and dynamic CRISPR activation (CRISPRa) promises to further advance these engineering capabilities. Once appropriate targets are identified, guide RNA prediction models can lead to increased efficacy in gene targeting. Developing improved models and incorporating approaches from machine learning may be able to overcome current limitations and greatly expand the capabilities of CRISPR-Cas9 tools for metabolic engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk-controlled Expansion Planning with Distributed Resources (REPAIR) v1.0

The Risk-controlled Expansion Planning with Distributed Resources (REPAIR) is an innovative tool to support decisions around utility grid planning to prevent and mitigate the impact of outages caused by routine equipment failures (reliability) or by extreme events (resilience), such as storms, earthquakes or wildfires that long term interruption of service. REPAIR is a risk-based optimization and decision-making model allowing informed and transparent "cost vs risk" decisions regarding infrastructural planning of electric utilities. The model considers long-term resilience and reliability planning strategies that rely on traditional infrastructure upgrade (e.g. circuit hardening, reinforcement, new substations, etc.) or new investment alternatives, such as DERs.

Heleno, Miguel [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗