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DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

GeoMelt{sup R} In-Container Vitrification (ICV){sup TM} for Fukushima Daiichi Water Treatment Secondary Wastes - 20212

The Japanese government is supporting development work implemented jointly by Veolia subsidiaries Kurion Japan, K.K., Veolia Nuclear Solutions (VNS), Inc., and Veolia Nuclear Solutions Federal Services, LLC for treating radioactive waste generated from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) water treatment using the GeoMelt{sup TM} In-Container Vitrification (ICV){sup TM} technology. The initial work consisted of glass formulation and engineering-scale testing which was completed in 2018, in the frame of an IRID (International Research Institute for Nuclear Decommissioning) program as part of a project subsidized by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). The Fukushima Daiichi NPS Mid- and Long-Term Road-map requires investigation of methods to stabilize solid wastes (and to immobilize radioisotopes in the wastes) generated as a result of emergency response and decommissioning activities. Cooling water treatment has resulted in a significant amount of solid and slurry secondary wastes (mostly adsorbents and ion-exchange materials) which will require processing at some point. GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} is a joule-heated melter technology which uses a refractory-lined single-use container combining the melter and disposal container. There is no pouring required nor concerns with refractory corrosion which allows the process to accommodate a wide range of waste chemistries and high waste loadings. The testing described here consisted of three engineering-scale melts, each processing between 212 kg and 240 kg of waste simulants, glass formers, and non-radioactive cesium (Cs) and strontium (Sr) tracers. Continuous isokinetic stack sampling of off-gas emissions was performed for each test in order to calculate Cs and Sr retention in the glass wasteform. Single-pass retention of Cs in the final glass wasteform ranged from 91.46 to 99.30%, and single-pass retention of Sr ranged from 99.76 to 100%. Planned particulate recycle will increase these retention levels. Melt 1 processed a mixture of KUR-EH (a zeolite-based ion-exchange material), simulated Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) Carbonate and Iron Slurries, and glass additives. Melt 2 processed a mixture of KUR-EH, KUR-TSG (a titanate-based adsorbent), and glass additives. Melt 3 processed a mixture of KUR-EH, simulated barium sulfate/iron ferrocyanide sludge (AREVA sludge), and glass additives. Waste loadings for these melts ranged from 70 weight percent (wt%) to 82 wt%. Vitrification produces a waste form much denser than the stored water treatment secondary waste wastes, resulting in significant volume reduction. Volume reductions for the three tests ranged from 74 to 79 vol%. Vitrification produces a chemically durable wasteform. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) tested three glass samples from each engineering-scale melt) by the Materials Characterization Center 1 (MCC-1) test, an international standard leach test of the chemical durability of nuclear waste glasses. PNNL also obtained one U.S. reference glass (EA Glass) and two Japan reference glasses P0798) and tested these under the same MCC-1 conditions (90 deg. C, 10 m-1, DIW, and 7, 14, 28-day) as the GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} glasses. The GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} glasses exhibited lower total normalized releases and 14- to 28-day normalized release rates than the three reference glasses. These results suggest that the GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} glasses have durabilities on par with high-level waste glasses under standard test conditions. Post-melt process sampling and analysis indicated no Cs migration into the melter refractory materials and very little deposition of Cs or Sr onto the melter hood or off-gas piping internals. The results of the testing indicated good Cs retention in the glass, high volume reduction and waste loadings, and excellent chemical durability. These factors are important to minimize treatment costs and to protect workers and the environment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron scattering and neutrino physics

Abstract A thorough understanding of neutrino–nucleus scattering physics is crucial for the successful execution of the entire US neutrino physics program. Neutrino–nucleus interaction constitutes one of the biggest systematic uncertainties in neutrino experiments—both at intermediate energies affecting long-baseline deep underground neutrino experiment, as well as at low energies affecting coherent scattering neutrino program—and could well be the difference between achieving or missing discovery level precision. To this end, electron–nucleus scattering experiments provide vital information to test, assess and validate different nuclear models and event generators intended to test, assess and validate different nuclear models and event generators intended to be used in neutrino experiments. Similarly, for the low-energy neutrino program revolving around the coherent elastic neutrino–nucleus scattering (CEvNS) physics at stopped pion sources, such as at ORNL, the main source of uncertainty in the evaluation of the CEvNS cross section is driven by the underlying nuclear structure, embedded in the weak form factor, of the target nucleus. To this end, parity-violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments, utilizing polarized electron beams, provide vital model-independent information in determining weak form factors. This information is vital in achieving a percent level precision needed to disentangle new physics signals from the standard model expected CEvNS rate. In this white paper, we highlight connections between electron- and neutrino–nucleus scattering physics at energies ranging from 10 s of MeV to a few GeV, review the status of ongoing and planned electron scattering experiments, identify gaps, and lay out a path forward that benefits the neutrino community. We also highlight the systemic challenges with respect to the divide between the nuclear and high-energy physics communities and funding that presents additional hurdles in mobilizing these connections to the benefit of neutrino programs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dairy Methane Emissions in California's San Joaquin Valley Inferred With Ground‐Based Remote Sensing Observations in the Summer and Winter

Abstract The dairy industry in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is one of California’s largest methane (CH 4 ) sources. Reducing dairy emissions is a priority for the state’s climate change plans. Observations of current dairy CH 4 emissions are key to monitoring actions taken toward this goal. To help support this, we present new ground‐based measurements of atmospheric column‐averaged CH 4 mixing ratio (XCH 4 ) gradients across a group of 600 dairies in the central SJV using EM27/SUN solar spectrometers. We used measurements from the 2019 summer and 2020 winter seasons for a top‐down emission inversion based on the WRF‐STILT model. Our top‐down estimates of the region’s dairy emissions range from 90% to 183% of the current CALGEM inventory’s emissions of 277 Gg/yr. In contrast to the strong temperature dependence found by earlier dairy CH 4 emission studies, we also find that our top‐down emissions during the winter measurement days are comparable to the summer measurement days, possibly due to seasonal changes in dairy management practices and meteorological conditions. Furthermore, we find significant interday variability in our measurements and find that our emission estimates overlap with earlier top‐down studies and bottom‐up inventories in this region. Our study demonstrates how analysis of ground‐based remotely sensed CH 4 gradient observations can help improve our understanding of CH 4 sources at scales relevant to mitigation policy. It also reflects the need for long‐term monitoring of CH 4 emissions in the region and at individual facilities to better understand their emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

RAMSeS: Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems

Over the past few decades, software has become ubiquitous as it has been integrated into nearly every aspect of society, including household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial control systems, public utilities, government operations, and military systems. Consequently, many critical national security questions can no longer be answered convincingly without understanding software, including its purpose, its capabilities, its flaws, its communication, or how it processes and stores data. As software continues to become larger, more complex, and more widespread, our ability to answer important mission questions and reason about software in a timely way is falling behind. Today, to achieve such understanding of third-party software, we rely predominantly on the ability of reverse engineering experts to manually answer each particular mission question for every software system of interest. This approach often requires heroic human effort that nevertheless fails to meet current mission needs and will never scale to meet future needs. The result is an emerging crisis: a massive and expanding gap between the national security need to answer mission questions about software and our ability to do so. Sandia National Laboratories has established the Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems (RAMSeS) effort, a collaborative long-term effort aimed at dramatically improving our nation’s ability to answer mission questions about third-party software by growing an ecosystem of tools that augment the human reverse engineer through automation, interoperability, and reuse. Focusing on static analysis of binary programs, we are attempting to identify reusable software analysis components that advance our ability to reason about software, to automate useful aspects of the software analysis process, and to integrate new methodologies and capabilities into a working ecosystem of tools and experts. We aim to integrate existing tools where possible, adapt tools when modest modifications will enable them to interoperate, and implement missing capability when necessary. Although we do hope to automate a growing set of analysis tasks, we will approach this goal incrementally by assisting the human in an ever-widening range of tasks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonization of the Chemical Industry Through Electrification: Barriers and Opportunities

The chemical industry is a major source of economic productivity and employment globally and among the top 3 industrial sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, along with steel and cement. As global demand for chemical products continues to grow, there is an urgency to develop and deploy sustainable chemical production pathways and to reconsider continued investment in current emission-intensive production technologies. This perspective describes the challenges and opportunities to decarbonize the chemical industry via electrification powered by low-carbon electricity supply, both in the near term and long term, and it discusses four technological pathways ranging from the more mature direct substitution of heat with electricity and use of hydrogen to technologically less mature, yet potentially more selective, approaches based on electrochemistry and plasma. Finally, we highlight the key elements of integrating an electrified industrial process with the power sector to leverage process flexibility to reduce energy costs of chemical production and provide valuable power grid support services. Unlocking such plant-to-grid coordination and the four electrification pathways has significant potential to facilitate rapid and deep decarbonization of the chemical industry sector.

chemical synthesis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production from Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Reservoir Response to Interruptions of Production (Shut-Ins)

In this work, we investigate by means of numerical simulation a planned year-long field test of depressurization-induced production from a permafrost-associated hydrate reservoir on the Alaska North Slope at the site of the recently drilled Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study is to assess quantitatively the impact of temporary interruptions (well shut-ins) on the expected fluid production performance from the B1 Sand of the stratigraphic Unit B during controlled depressurization over different time scales, as well as on other relevant aspects of the system response that have the potential to significantly affect the design of the field test. We consider eight different cases of depressurization, including (a) rapid depressurization over a 60-day period to a terminal bottomhole pressure P W of 2.8 MPa and (b) a slower depressurization rate to a final P W of 0.6 MPa at the end of the year-long production test, in addition to (c) a multi-step depressurization regime and (d) a quasi-linear continuous depressurization strategy. The results of the study indicate that shut-ins obviously reduce gas release and production during and immediately after their occurrence, but their longer-term effects are strongly dependent on the depressurization regime and on the time of observation, covering the entire range of potential outcomes. Shut-ins (a) have a universally strong negative effect when quasi-linear depressurization is involved regardless of the length of the production period, and (b) have a strong positive effect in multi-step depressurization schemes that becomes apparent earlier for large initial pressure drops, but (c) can also appear to have practically no effect for slow stepwise depressurization at the end of the year-long production test. Shut-ins lead to a rapid reformation of hydrates, even to the point of disappearance of a free gas phase in the reservoir. Rapid depressurization regimes lead to early maximum rates of hydrate dissociation and gas production, while the maximum rates occur at the end of the production test for the cases of slower depressurization. Shut-ins do not appear to have a significant impact on water production, as the cessation of production is followed by higher rates production when depressurization resumes. Similarly, (a) the fraction of produced CH 4 originating from exsolution from the water, (b) the water-to-gas ratio, and (c) the rate of replenishment of produced water by boundary inflows do not appear significantly affected by shut-ins, the effects of which seem to be temporary in the majority of the cases. The study confirmed the superiority of multi-step depressurization methods as the most effective strategies for hydrate dissociation and gas production and showed that two observation wells (located at distances of 30 and 50 m from the production well) are appropriately positioned and both able to capture the P, T, and S G behavior during the fluid production and shut-ins in any of the eight cases we investigated.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Power Plants: Status of Operating and Proposed Plants, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Improving battery technology and the growth of variable renewable generation are driving a surge of interest in “hybrid” power plants that combine, for example, wind or solar generating capacity with co-located batteries. While most of the current interest involves pairing photovoltaic (PV) plants with batteries, other types of hybrid or co-located plants with wide-ranging configurations have been part of the U.S. electricity mix for decades. This annually updated briefing tracks and maps existing hybrid or co-located plants across the United States while also synthesizing data from power purchase agreements (PPAs) and generation interconnection queues to shed light on near- and long-term development pipelines. The scope includes “co-located hybrids” that pair two or more resources (e.g., multiple types of generation and/or generation with storage) that are operated largely independently behind a single point of interconnection, and “full hybrids” that also feature coordinated operations of the co-located resources. The focus is on plants with one megawatt (MW) or more of capacity; smaller (often behind-the-meter) projects are also increasingly common, but are not included in this data synthesis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD LEAD CANISTER’S HEATER BENCH TESTS

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to confirm the function and ability of the electric heater assemblies that were specially designed to provide heating similar to the decay heat of nuclear material contained within the canister storage system. Heater bench testing is planned for early 2022 in a test configuration that does not include the canister. The goal of the bench testing is to verify that the heaters can replicate the decay heat of a canister with nuclear material and to validate the thermal models, which are critical to understanding the HLC’s thermal environment, including the local air flow within the canister storage system. Testing of the heater assemblies inside the canister system are planned in the future to validate canister level thermal models, and rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2025-2026 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the bench testing. A description of the heater assemblies and planned bench testing is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was performed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Suffield, Sarah R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symposium: Quantum Theory, Quantum Materials, Quantum Computing (Final Report, DE-SC0022551)

Quantum mechanics is fundamental to understanding, predicting, and controlling many physical processes in a vast range of scientific and technological areas. In molecules and materials, the quantum mechanics of Coulombic many-body systems determines far more than the ground state and bulk properties. Quantum mechanics governs magnetism, electron and spin transport, chemical reactions and catalysis, superconductivity, photosynthesis, etc. Each plays a vital role in modern society. As digital technologies push both temporal and length-scale limits, fundamental quantum principles become the current focus for a new class of technologies: quantum computing, quantum sensing, quantum encryption, etc. This oncoming quantum information sciences wave is manifest recently in frontier foci of all six Department of Energy Office of Science programs. The Sanibel Symposium offers a proven, influential platform for facilitating and advancing cross-fertilization among theoretical and computational chemists and physicists, computer scientists, and materials engineers. The Symposia have a long, successful record of driving progress on theory and computation of materials, nanostructures, and their molecular constituents. The Symposia thus are well-suited for advancing the quantum information science thrust in the Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES). With that QIS thrust as the focus, we propose five sessions of the 61st Sanibel Symposium on the theme Quantum Theory, Quantum Materials, Quantum Computing. From a longer perspective, this thematic program for 2022 is the second year of a five year plan of program segments addressed at challenges in quantum information sciences and quantum materials. The rest of the Symposium program will be of considerable relevance, with, for example, sessions on quantum molecular and material dynamics, and new directions in coupled cluster theory. New ideas for methods and applications can be expected to emerge from the stimulus of the formal presentations and informal discussions. The proposed award is targeted at students, post-docs, and junior scientists. Conscious effort, characteristic of the Sanibel Symposia, to stimulate the participation of women and under-represented minorities will continue.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Requalification and Declaration of High-alpha Cemented TRU-waste from the Late 70's and Early 80's - 20499

KTE and Siemens launched a project to qualify a series of 391 waste drums and 115 concrete containers produced from 1979 to 1984. The waste is characterized by a high content of long-lived alpha-nuclides (TRU-waste - Pu, U, Am in the range of 1 E+11-1 E+12 Bq/ drum. This high radionuclide inventory requires a special packaging according to the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) of the repository Konrad [1] despite the fact, that the waste was treated manually. The raw waste originally was delivered in nitric acid solution and was solidified using ordinary Portland cement. The existing documentation comprises analyses, transfer documentation for the nuclear fuel nuclides and waste treatment documentation yielding information, which waste was treated together in a batch. Additionally all drums were subjected to non-destructive gamma-spectrometry assay. A small number of 7 drums were opened and sampled to support the existing declaration. For the entire series the waste products were attributed to defined batches using the accountancy data supported by the analyses and the gamma-spectrometry. Each batch was produced from a homogeneous stock of waste solution and can therefore be declared and documented together. The declaration concept is based on the gamma spectrometry results performed on the entire drums, which were corrected and extended for the uncertainty of the analyses. The declaration concept is verified by the regulator and its independent expert. The state of the project is in the documentation of the solidification campaigns followed by the planning of the container configuration. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-principles study of magnetism and electric field effects in 2D systems

This review article provides a bird's-eye view of what first-principles based methods can contribute to next-generation device design and simulation. After a brief overview of methods and capabilities in the area, the authors focus on published work by their group since 2015 and current work on CrI3. The authors introduce both single- and dual-gate models in the framework of density functional theory and the constrained random phase approximation in estimating the Hubbard U for 2D systems vs their 3D counterparts. A wide range of systems, including graphene-based heterogeneous systems, transition metal dichalcogenides, and topological insulators, and a rich array of physical phenomena, including the macroscopic origin of polarization, field effects on magnetic order, interface state resonance induced peak in transmission coefficients, spin filtration, etc., are covered. For CrI3, the authors present their new results on bilayer systems such as the interplay between stacking and magnetic order, pressure dependence, and electric field induced magnetic phase transitions. The authors find that a bare bilayer CrI3, graphene|bilayer CrI3|graphene, hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN)|bilayer CrI3|h-BN, and h-BN|bilayer CrI3|graphene all have a different response at high field, while at small field, the difference is small except for graphene|bilayer CrI3|graphene. The authors conclude with discussion of some ongoing work and work planned in the near future, with the inclusion of further method development and applications.

Cheng, Hai-Ping (ORCID:0000000159901725)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗