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At least 181 records · Page 10

Mesh-Sequenced Realizations for Evaluation of Subgrid-Scale Models for Turbulent Combustion

This paper develops a new approach for analysis of subgrid closures for turbulent combustion as modeled using direct quadrature (finite-rate chemistry) techniques. The approach, termed multiresolution analysis through mesh-sequenced realizations (MRA-MSR), conducts simultaneous, constrained large-eddy simulations on a set of hierarchically coarsened meshes. Furthermore, the availability of underlying fine-mesh (subgrid) data corresponding to coarse-mesh locations allows a clearer assessment of the effects of unresolved fluctuations on apparent reactivity. A key to MRA-MSR is the correlation of eddy structures at coarser mesh levels, which is facilitated by the transfer of filtered fine-mesh velocity information. A seven-mesh MRA-MSR hierarchy using three resolution levels is applied to one of the Sydney bluff-body stabilized methane–hydrogen flames. Analysis of the simultaneously evolved data at different resolution levels reveals several interesting trends. First, at high Damköhler numbers, there is clear evidence of attenuation of apparent reactivity due to the effects of unresolved fluctuations. Secondly, single-point, single-time filtered density functions of a normalized subgrid Damköhler number show a characteristic beta probability density function (PDF) form and display evidence of scale similarity. Interrogation of the MRA-MSR database also shows that the recently-proposed least-squares minimization (LSM) turbulence–chemistry interaction model can account for the observed diminishment in reactivity at high Damköhler numbers but cannot reduce scatter significantly. A new form of the LSM model, which makes use of the normalized subgrid Damköhler number beta PDF distribution, performs slightly better than the original model, illustrating the potential of MRA-MSR both in assessing existing closure concepts and in developing new ones.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An ensemble of 48 physically perturbed model estimates of the 1/8° terrestrial water budget over the conterminous United States, 1980–2015

Terrestrial water budget (TWB) data over large domains are of high interest for various hydrological applications. Spatiotemporally continuous and physically consistent estimations of TWB rely on land surface models (LSMs). As an augmentation of the operational North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) four-LSM ensemble, this paper describes a dataset simulated from an ensemble of 48 physics configurations of the Noah LSM with multi-physics options (Noah-MP). The 48 Noah-MP physics configurations are selected to give a representative cross-section of commonly used LSMs for parameterizing runoff, atmospheric surface layer turbulence, soil moisture limitation on photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance. The dataset spans from 1980 to 2015 over the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a monthly temporal resolution and a 1/8° spatial resolution. The dataset variables include total evapotranspiration and its constituents (canopy evaporation, soil evaporation, and transpiration), runoff (the surface and subsurface components), as well as terrestrial water storage (snow water equivalent, four-layer soil water content from the surface down to 2 m, and the groundwater storage anomaly). The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7109816. Evaluations carried out in this study and previous investigations show that the ensemble per forms well in reproducing the observed terrestrial water storage, snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff. Noah-MP complements the NLDAS models well, and adding Noah-MP consistently improves the NLDAS es timations of the above variables in most areas of CONUS. Besides, the perturbed-physics ensemble facilitates the identification of model deficiencies. The parameterizations of shallow snow, spatially varying groundwater dynamics, and near-surface atmospheric turbulence should be improved in future model versions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the predictability of land surface fluxes from meteorological variables

Previous research has demonstrated that land surface models (LSMs) are performing poorly when compared with relatively simple empirical models over a wide range of metrics and environments. Atmospheric driving data appear toprovide information about land surface fluxes that LSMs are not fully utilising. Here, we further quantify the information available in the meteorological forcing data that are used by LSMs for predicting land surface fluxes, by interrogating FLUXNET data, and extending the benchmarking methodology used in previous experiments. We show that substantial performance improvement is possible for empirical models using meteorological data alone, with no explicit vegetation or soil properties, thus setting lower bounds on a priori expectations on LSM performance. The process also identifies key meteorological variables that provide predictive power. We provide an ensemble of empirical benchmarks that are simple to reproduce and provide a range of behaviours and predictive performance, acting as a baseline benchmark set for future studies. We reanalyse previously published LSM simulations and show that there is more diversity between LSMs than previously indicated, although it remains unclear why LSMs are broadly performing so much worse than simple empirical models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Land surface model parameter optimisation using in situ flux data: comparison of gradient-based versus random search algorithms (a case study using ORCHIDEE v1.9.5.2)

Land surface models (LSMs), which form the land component of earth system models, rely on numerous processes for describing carbon, water and energy budgets, often associated with highly uncertain parameters. Data assimilation (DA) is a useful approach for optimising the most critical parameters in order to improve model accuracy and refine future climate predictions. In this study, we compare two different DA methods for optimising the parameters of seven plant functional types (PFTs) of the ORCHIDEE LSM using daily averaged eddy-covariance observations of net ecosystem exchange and latent heat flux at 78 sites across the globe. We perform a technical investigation of two classes of minimisation methods – local gradient-based (the L-BFGS-B algorithm, limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm with bound constraints) and global random search (the genetic algorithm) – by evaluating their relative performance in terms of the model–data fit and the difference in retrieved parameter values. We examine the performance of each method for two cases: when optimising parameters at each site independently (“single-site” approach) and when simultaneously optimising the model at all sites for a given PFT using a common set of parameters (“multi-site” approach). We find that for the single site case the random search algorithm results in lower values of the cost function (i.e. lower model–data root mean square differences) than the gradient-based method; the difference between the two methods is smaller for the multi-site optimisation due to a smoothing of the cost function shape with a greater number of observations. The spread of the cost function, when performing the same tests with 16 random first-guess parameters, is much larger with the gradient-based method, due to the higher likelihood of being trapped in local minima. When using pseudo-observation tests, the genetic algorithm results in a closer approximation of the true posterior parameter value in the L-BFGS-B algorithm. We demonstrate the advantages and challenges of different DA techniques and provide some advice on using it for the LSM parameter optimisation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A variable conductance heat pipe/radiator for the lunar surface magnetometer.

The device was developed to supplement the existing cooling system of the Apollo 16 Lunar Surface Magnetometer (LSM). Analysis and tests showed that two such devices, inserted by an astronaut into receptacles on opposite sides of the electronics package, would reduce the diurnal temperature variation by about 40% and thereby would considerably increase the reliability of 50,000 welded connections. The LSM design constraints, selection of a variable conductance technique, heat pipe/radiator design features, and thermal performance are discussed.

Kirkpatrick, J. P.↗

Polarized electromagnetic response of the moon

The strong anisotropy in Apollo 15 Lunar Surface Magnetometer (LSM) signals resulting from electromagnetic induction in the moon, forced by fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field, is shown to result from intense polarization of the induced field. Arguments are given to show that the anisotropy cannot be explained wholly by asymmetric lunar induction in the presence of the diamagnetic cavity, but must be related to a regional influence. The weaker Apollo 12 anisotropy may also be associated with a regional influence. The site of Apollo 15 LSM at the edge of the Imbrium Basin suggests a preliminary model for calculations based on the possibility that Imbrium and perhaps Serenitatis are sources of the regional effect. Lastly, since the very low frequency induction seems free of the anisotropy, our earlier estimate of deep conductivity remains unchanged.

Sonett, C. P.↗

Theoretical design and analysis of the layered synthetic microstructure optic for the dual path X-ray telescope

A ray tracing analysis was performed for several configurations for the inner channel of the dual path X-ray telescope, which is proposed to use the second mirror of the Stanford/MSFC Wolter-Schwarzchild telescope and a normal incident layered synthetic microstructure (LSM) mirror to form a secondary image near the front of the telescope. The LSM mirror shapes considered were spherical, ellipsoid, hyperboloid, and constant optical path length (OPL) aspheric. Only the constant OPL case gave good axial resolution. All cases had poor off axis resolution as judged by the RMS blur circle radius.

Shealy, D. L.↗

Space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies: Algorithm development and simulated observation experiments

Lidar Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Simulation Models (LSM) were developed to evaluate the potential impact of global wind observations on the basic understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and on the predictive skills of current forecast models (GCM and regional scale). Fully integrated top to bottom LAWS Simulation Models for global and regional scale simulations were developed. The algorithm development incorporated the effects of aerosols, water vapor, clouds, terrain, and atmospheric turbulence into the models. Other additions include a new satellite orbiter, signal processor, line of sight uncertainty model, new Multi-Paired Algorithm and wind error analysis code. An atmospheric wind field library containing control fields, meteorological fields, phenomena fields, and new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data was also added. The LSM was used to address some key LAWS issues and trades such as accuracy and interpretation of LAWS information, data density, signal strength, cloud obscuration, and temporal data resolution.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

Validation of the Land-Surface Energy Budget and Planetary Boundary Layer for Several Intensive field Experiments

Land-surface processes in a data assimilation system influence the lower troposphere and must be properly represented. With the recent incorporation of the Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM) into the GEOS Data Assimilation System (DAS), the detailed land-surface processes require strict validation. While global data sources can identify large-scale systematic biases at the monthly timescale, the diurnal cycle is difficult to validate. Moreover, global data sets rarely include variables such as evaporation, sensible heat and soil water. Intensive field experiments, on the other hand, can provide high temporal resolution energy budget and vertical profile data for sufficiently long periods, without global coverage. Here, we evaluate the GEOS DAS against several intensive field experiments. The field experiments are First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE, Kansas, summer 1987), Cabauw (as used in PILPS, Netherlands, summer 1987), Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM, Southern Great Plains, winter and summer 1998) and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA, Arctic ice sheet, winter and summer 1998). The sites provide complete surface energy budget data for periods of at least one year, and some periods of vertical profiles. This comparison provides a detailed validation of the Mosaic LSM within the GEOS DAS for a variety of climatologic and geographic conditions.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

The Effect of Errors in Snow Assimilation on Land Surface Modeling

The accurate portrayal of the hydrological cycle is extremely important in land surface modeling. Central to this effort is the treatment of snow, as errors in the representation of this quantity can impact practically all other modeled quantities through alterations in the water and energy balances. Although land surface model (LSM) simulations can benefit from the assimilation of snow cover and snow depth observations, they can be negatively impacted if such observations contain errors or if a model bias exists in the simulation of surface or soil temperatures. Both cases may lead to excessive melting or growth of snow packs, and to large alterations in both the energy and water balances. Such problems in the snow assimilation process, made evident by the repeated melting and replenishing of snow pack over significant areas of the United States, exists in the Eta Data Assimilation System and is a product of the EDAS system's direct insertion assimilation of snow data. Occurring on a 24 hour cycle, the repeated melting infuses the soil column with a large quantity of water that upsets the hydrological cycle. In an effort to quantify the impacts of such errors in snow assimilation on water and energy budgets, a series of Mosaic LSM simulations were performed over the 12 month period covering October 1998 to October 1999.

Cosgrove, Brian A.↗

Tropospheric Wind Observations with Doppler Lidars

Simpson Weather Associates has continued its efforts on the tools which operate the DLSM's s line-of-sight output products file. Due to the long model run times which were revealed in last month's benchmark tests, four model options for the LSM's atmospheric inputs are now included in the LSM. The user can choose to either spatially and/or temporally interpolate the inputs or use inputs closest to the DWL shot. A problem in the terrain assignment from the GADS was corrected. A database conversion tool was added to convert DWL line-of-sight ASCII files into database format for the graphic display models. Efforts have continued in simulating DWL horizontal wind components using the DAO ficcm Nature Run. Experiments 2 and 3 (40 days worth) were completed and sent to the DAO for their use in bracketing OSSE experiments. In addition, in order to investigate differences in the way regional (MM5) and global scale (ECMWF T213) models treat features such as clouds and subgrid scale variability, a gridded Mesoscale Atmospheric Data Set (MADS) was created and ready to be incorporated into simulation experiments.

Source record↗

AGCM Biases in Evaporation Regime: Impacts on Soil Moisture Memory and Land-Atmosphere Feedback

Because precipitation and net radiation in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are typically biased relative to observations, the simulated evaporative regime of a region may be biased, with consequent negative effects on the AGCM s ability to translate an initialized soil moisture anomaly into an improved seasonal prediction. These potential problems are investigated through extensive offline analyses with the Mosaic land surface model (LSM). We first forced the LSM globally with a 15-year observations-based dataset. We then repeated the simulation after imposing a representative set of GCM climate biases onto the forcings - the observational forcings were scaled so that their mean seasonal cycles matched those simulated by the NSIPP-1 (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) AGCM over the same period-The AGCM s climate biases do indeed lead to significant biases in evaporative regime in certain regions, with the expected impacts on soil moisture memory timescales. Furthermore, the offline simulations suggest that the biased forcing in the AGCM should contribute to overestimated feedback in certain parts of North America - parts already identified in previous studies as having excessive feedback. The present study thus supports the notion that the reduction of climate biases in the AGCM will lead to more appropriate translations of soil moisture initialization into seasonal prediction skill.

Mahanama, Sarith P. P.↗

Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U. S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The co-evolution of these variables and the convective PBL is sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in NWP models remains largely undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with observations during the summers of 2006/7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which enables a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. This coupling is one component of a larger project to develop a NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system. A range of diagnostics exploring the feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the. diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of 200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). Portions of the Northern Plains states experienced substantial increases in convective available potential energy as a result of the higher SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. These differences produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for this event.

Bell, Jordan R.↗