Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “LSTM modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

An LSTM Deep Learning Network for ¿Background Radiation Prediction

Determination of appropriate background radiation is important in any measurement application. Environmental radiation monitors and monitors used to assess dose to individuals outside of controlled areas are particularly susceptible to changes in readings due to fluctuations in the environmental conditions. These fluctuations (e.g. radon progeny concentrations) lead to changes in the detector response in the actual radiation environment, and they need to be taken into account when extracting the net operational doses. Work has been ongoing to apply advances in Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence to account for changes in detector responses based on environmental parameters; in particular, a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning architecture has been utilized to incorporate time-series data into a prediction model. In this work, we present the current status of the project to predict radiation measurements based on meteorological conditions and air packet trajectories extracted using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT4) model.

Degtiarenko, Pavel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Predict Perovskite Solar Cell Electrical Metastability from Operando Photoluminescence Images in Accelerated Stress Testing

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells exhibit a metastable response to bias governed by coupled ionic–electronic processes, complicating the conventional reciprocity relation between luminescence intensity and device open-circuit voltage (V oc ). This limits the use of luminescence as a diagnostic for device screening or accelerated stress testing, motivating new approaches that can interpret photoluminescence (PL) signals under nonequilibrium conditions. From the artificial intelligence perspective, we develop an explainable deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, and an attention mechanism to learn spatiotemporal features from operando photoluminescence PL image sequences. The model achieves a mean absolute error of ±0.027 V in predicting open-circuit voltage transients and reduces extreme-tail errors by up to 78% compared to physics-based reciprocity calculations. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) provides interpretability by highlighting physically meaningful regions such as electrode edges and emergent defect features. From the engineering application perspective, this framework enables accurate, contactless prediction of device V oc and identification of degradation-relevant features during accelerated aging of perovskite solar cells. This approach demonstrates how explainable AI can enhance operando diagnostics and reliability analysis in photovoltaic devices under nonequilibrium conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long–short-term memory encoder–decoder with regularized hidden dynamics for fault detection in industrial processes

The ability of recurrent neural networks (RNN) to model nonlinear dynamics of high dimensional process data has enabled data-driven RNN-based fault detection algorithms. Previous studies have focused on detecting faults by identifying the discrepancies in data distribution between the faulty and normal data, as reflected in prediction errors generated by RNN models. However, in industrial processes, variations in data distribution can also result from changes in normal control setpoints and compensatory control adjustments in response to disturbances, making it hard to differentiate between normal and faulty conditions. This paper proposes a fault detection method utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder–decoder structure with regularized hidden dynamics and reversible instance normalization (RevIN) to compactly represent high-dimensional measurements for effective monitoring. During training, the hidden states of the model are regularized to form a low-dimensional latent space representation of the original multivariate time series data. As a result, the prediction errors of the latent states can be used to monitor the abnormal dynamic variations, while the reconstruction errors of the measured variables are used to monitor the abnormal static variations. Furthermore, the proposed indices can reflect operating conditions, even when the distribution of test data changes, which helps distinguish faults from normal adjustments and disturbances that controllers can settle. Here, data from numerical simulation and the Tennessee Eastman process are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

GrainNN: A neighbor-aware long short-term memory network for predicting microstructure evolution during polycrystalline grain formation

High fidelity simulations of grain formation in alloys are an indispensable tool for process-to-mechanical-properties characterization. Such simulations, however, can be computationally expensive as they require fine spatial and temporal discretizations. Their cost becomes an obstacle to parametric studies and ensemble runs and ultimately makes downstream tasks like optimal control and uncertainty quantification challenging. To enable such downstream tasks, we introduce GrainNN, an efficient and accurate reduced-order model for epitaxial grain growth in additive manufacturing conditions. GrainNN is a sequence-to-sequence long-short-term-memory (LSTM) deep neural network that evolves the dynamics of manually crafted features. Its innovations are (1) an attention mechanism with grain-microstructure-specific transformer architecture; and (2) an overlapping combination of several clones of the network to generalize to grain configurations that are different from those used for training. This design enables GrainNN to predict grain formation for unseen physical parameters, grain number, domain size and geometry. Furthermore, GrainNN not only reconstructs the quantities of interest but also can be pointwise accurate. In our numerical experiments, we use a polycrystalline phase field method to both generate the training data and assess GrainNN. For multiparametric, ensemble simulations with many grains, GrainNN can be orders of magnitude faster than phase field simulations, while delivering 5%–15% pointwise error. Additionally, this speedup includes the cost of the phase field simulations for generating training data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Deep Learning Modeling Framework to Capture Mixing Patterns in Reactive-Transport Systems

Prediction and control of chemical mixing are vital for many scientific areas such as subsurface reactive transport, climate modeling, combustion, epidemiology, and pharmacology. Due to the complex nature of mixing in heterogeneous and anisotropic media, the mathematical models related to this phenomenon are not analytically tractable. Numerical simulations often provide a viable route to predict chemical mixing accurately. However, contemporary modeling approaches for mixing cannot utilize available spatial-temporal data to improve the accuracy of the future prediction and can be compute-intensive, especially when the spatial domain is large and for long-term temporal predictions. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we will present in this paper a deep learning (DL) modeling framework applied to predict the progress of chemical mixing under fast bimolecular reactions. This framework uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for capturing spatial patterns and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting temporal variations in mixing. By careful design of the framework—placement of non-negative constraint on the weights of the CNN and the selection of activation function, the framework ensures non-negativity of the chemical species at all spatial points and for all times. Our DL-based framework is fast, accurate, and requires minimal data for training. The time needed to obtain a forecast using the model is a fraction (≈ O(-6)) of the time needed to obtain the result using a high-fidelity simulation. To achieve an error of 10% (measured using the infinity norm) for capturing local-scale mixing features such as interfacial mixing, only 24% to 32% of the sequence data for model training is required. To achieve the same level of accuracy for capturing global-scale mixing features, the sequence data required for model training is 64% to 70% of the total spatial-temporal data. Hence, the proposed approach—a fast and accurate way to forecast long-time spatial-temporal mixing patterns in heterogeneous and anisotropic media—will be a valuable tool for modeling reactive-transport in a wide range of applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Electricity Market under Cyber Attacks

Information and communication technologies have been widely used in smart grid for efficient operation. However, these technologies are vulnerable to malicious cyber attacks, which may lead to severe reliability and economic issues. Recently, a variety of data-driven anomaly detection approaches have been explored to detect potential cyber attacks in smart grids. In this paper, we researched on the electricity market data aiming to identify anomalies from the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and provide a new indicator for potential cyber attacks in power grids. Specifically, a novel data-driven probabilistic anomaly detection framework is proposed for electricity market, which consists of three major components: long short-term memory (LSTM) based deterministic electricity price forecasting, probabilistic electricity price forecasting and anomaly detection. This framework is tested on a model-based electricity market simulator under two types of cyber attacks, i.e., load redistribution attack (LRA) and price responsive attack (PRA). Numerical results on the simulated LMPs show that the proposed framework is capable of detecting data anomalies over these attacks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long short-term memory embedded nudging schemes for nonlinear data assimilation of geophysical flows

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging approaches are still attractive due to their simplicity of implementation when more complex methods need to be avoided. However, optimal estimate of nudging gain matrix might be cumbersome. In this paper, we put forth a fully nonintrusive recurrent neural network approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding architecture to estimate the nudging term, which plays a role not only to force the state trajectories to the observations but also acts as a stabilizer. Furthermore, our approach relies on the power of archival data and the trained model can be retrained effectively due to power of transfer learning in any neural network applications. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, we perform twin experiments using Lorenz 96 system. Our results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM nudging approach yields more accurate estimates than both extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) when only sparse observations are available. With the availability of emerging AI-friendly and modular hardware technologies and heterogeneous computing platforms, we articulate that our simplistic nudging framework turns out to be computationally more efficient than either the EKF or EnKF approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting for a Residential Household in Alaska

Accurate short-term load forecasting at a fine scale is essential for demand response programs, peak shaving, and load-shedding strategies [1]. While traditionally, only aggregate short-term consumption data was available, advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) now provides data at the individual consumer level [1]. There is increasing interest in utilizing this data for short-term load forecasting (from an hour to a few days) to optimize grid operations. Electricity consumption in individual households is highly influenced by residents’ personal behaviors [2]. As a result, unlike aggregate loads, electrical power usage in single households often shows significant volatility, making meter-level load forecasting for individual users particularly challenging [3], [4]. Deep learning methods, with their strong ability to model nonlinear data, have become popular for improving the accuracy of household electricity consumption forecasting [4]. Notably, the Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) has attracted significant attention [5], [6].

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-series machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. Freno and Carlberg (2019) to dynamical systems. The proposed Time-Series Machine-Learning Error Modeling (T-MLEM) method constructs a regression model that maps features – which comprise error indicators that are derived from standard a posteriori error-quantification techniques – to a random variable for the approximate-solution error at each time instance. The proposed framework considers a wide range of candidate features, regression methods, and additive noise models. We consider primarily recursive regression techniques developed for time-series modeling, including both classical time-series models (e.g., autoregressive models) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), but also analyze standard non-recursive regression techniques (e.g., feed-forward neural networks) for comparative purposes. Finally, numerical experiments conducted on multiple benchmark problems illustrate that the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a type of RNN, outperforms other methods and yields substantial improvements in error predictions over traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Movement-Based Traffic Volume Prediction at Signalized Intersections

The traffic volume of each movement at signalized intersections can provide valuable information on real-time traffic conditions that enable traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuated traffic demands. Real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction is challenging due to various nonlinear spatial relationships at different locations/approaches and the complicated underlying temporal dependencies. In this study, a novel deep intersection spatial-temporal network (DISTN) is developed for real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections, which considers both spatial and temporal features by the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. In addition, the within-day, daily, and weekly periodic trends of traffic volume are also considered in the proposed model. This is the first time that a deep-learning method has been applied for movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections. In the numerical experiment, the proposed model is evaluated using real-world data and simulation data to demonstrate its effectiveness. The impacts of various structures of traffic networks on the proposed model are also discussed. Results show that the proposed model outperforms some of the state-of-the-art volume prediction methods currently in the literature.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Source Data Aggregation and Real-Time Anomaly Classification and Localization in Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a real-time anomaly location and classification framework for power distribution systems to simultaneously determine the type of anomaly (i.e., short-circuit fault, cyber attack, DER switching) and its location. The proposed framework employs the data aggregation module to collect the measurement data from multiple field devices operating at different sampling rates, such as protection relays and D-PMUs. The output of the data aggregation is then fed into a multi-task learning-based long-based short-term memory (MTL-LSTM) to classify the type of anomaly and the location in two separate tasks. The proposed MTL-LSTM approach can be utilized in real-time operation in order to distinguish between normal and several anomalous operations and locate the anomaly. The proposed framework is tested on a modified IEEE 33-bus test feeder benchmark that integrates solar generation and energy storage. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed framework can locate and classify anomalies for several operation conditions with more than 96% accuracy. Further experiments highlight the impact of aggregating multiple sources of data on the performance of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Risk-Aware Measurement Synchronization and Recovery for DSSE With Heterogeneous Data Sources

Power distribution systems are increasingly integrating heterogeneous sensors with varying data reporting rates and types, which pose challenges to achieving observability at the desired temporal resolution of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Multisensor failures caused by extreme events exacerbate these issues, introducing substantial uncertainties into DSSE. This article proposes a novel solution to these challenges by ensuring high-resolution system observability despite heterogeneous data sources and multisensor failures. First, a deep learning architecture combining long short-term memory (LSTM) and graph convolutional network (GCN) is employed to synchronize meters with different reporting rates, aiming to achieve system observability. A random-walk-model-based approach is introduced to generate pseudo-measurements while properly characterizing their uncertainties under multisensor failures. Finally, a disaster-risk-informed observability metric (RiOM) is defined to quantify the uncertainty associated with state estimation results. The proposed framework offers deeper insights into the system observability on the fly compared with conventional analysis. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated on an IEEE standard test case and a large-scale real-world distribution feeder in mid-Minnesota in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗