NASA NTRS2000
NASA has set goals to increase safety by one hundred times while reducing cost tenfold over the next decade. This dramatic increase in safety will come by departing from a past emphasis on cost and performance to a new paradigm of safety and reliability, which, in turn, will drive down cost. To accomplish this, vehicle systems must be inherently reliable, functionally redundant wherever practical and designed to minimize or eliminate catastrophic failure modes. Over the next twenty-five years, NASA has set goals to increase safety ten thousand times while reducing cost one hundred fold. Safety will increase towards today's airline safety and the low price per flight has the potential to enable a 15-fold increase in the size of the current projected space launch market. This level of improvement is comparable to the developments in the 1970s in the computer microprocessor when microchips went from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands of dollars - hailing the era of the personal computer. In order to achieve such ambitious cost goals, today's partial and fully expendable rockets must be replaced by fully reusable systems. A RLV can eliminate assembly and checkout of the large number of complex interfaces on today's Space Shuttle. Full reusability will eliminate the necessity to throw away expensive hardware and the need for on-going production. Systems in ten years will have to accommodate 50 to 100 missions per year and could be commercially certified for hundreds of flights. In twenty-five years, the number of flights per year could jump to over 1,000, which will require certification for thousands of flights. The large increase in flights per year will demand that current operations and maintenance procedures be revolutionized. Unlike the current shuttle, which requires several thousand personnel over five months to process, the next generation system must be turned around in one week with less than one hundred personnel. In contrast to the rigorous disassembly and inspections required for the Space Shuttle's subsystems, the next generation vehicle's on-board health monitoring systems will could tell the ground crews which systems need replacement before landing. In twenty-five years, vehicles will be re-flown within one with crews numbering less than one hundred. Fully automated ground processing systems must require only a handful of personnel to launch the vehicle. Due to the increased intelligence of on-board systems, only cursory walk-around inspections would be required between flights An assessment of the progress in breakthrough technologies toward these goals by the NASA Advanced Space Transportation Program is presented. These breakthrough technologies include combined rocket and air breathing propulsion, high strength lightweight structures, high temperature materials, vehicle health management, and flight operations.