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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

Experimental and theoretical investigation into the high pressure deflagration products of 2,6-diamino-3,5-dinitropyrazine-1-oxide (LLM-105)

Diamond anvil cell (DAC) laser ignition experiments and reactive ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations were performed on the high explosive (HE) LLM-105 to investigate its high pressure (HP) deflagration chemistry. Raman and optical spectroscopy measurements reveal LLM-105 reacts into an opaque carbonaceous product at 4–25 GPa. At pressures >~ 27 GPa, the reaction product consists of an amorphous optically transparent solid and nitrogen (N 2 ) in the solid phase. While not a one-to-one comparison due to the small time and length scales, the HP AIMD simulations show that some of the product is molecular N 2 , in qualitative agreement with experiment, while above 20 GPa most of the product consists of large amorphous C x H y N z O k clusters. Clustering is enhanced with pressure and reduces with temperature. In the experiments with initial sample pressure >~ 25 GPa, the pressure within the DAC decreases with minimal change in DAC cavity area. At initial sample pressures of 43.9 GPa, when quenched to 0 K, simulations predict a product experiencing a lower pressure consistent with the experimental measurement at lower load pressures. In conclusion, the results are important for understanding the HP deflagration chemistry of LLM-105.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Dual blockade of IL-10 and PD-1 leads to control of SIV viral rebound following analytical treatment interruption

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) persistence during antiretroviral therapy (ART) is associated with heightened plasma interleukin-10 (IL-10) levels and PD-1 expression. We hypothesized that IL-10 and PD-1 blockade would lead to control of viral rebound following analytical treatment interruption (ATI). Twenty-eight ART-treated, simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)mac 239 -infected rhesus macaques (RMs) were treated with anti-IL-10, anti-IL-10 plus anti-PD-1 (combo) or vehicle. ART was interrupted 12 weeks after introduction of immunotherapy. Durable control of viral rebound was observed in nine out of ten combo-treated RMs for >24 weeks post-ATI. Induction of inflammatory cytokines, proliferation of effector CD8 + T cells in lymph nodes and reduced expression of BCL-2 in CD4 + T cells pre-ATI predicted control of viral rebound. Twenty-four weeks post-ATI, lower viral load was associated with higher frequencies of memory T cells expressing TCF-1 and of SIV-specific CD4 + and CD8 + T cells in blood and lymph nodes of combo-treated RMs. These results map a path to achieve long-lasting control of HIV and/or SIV following discontinuation of ART.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Elastic deformation as a tool to investigate watershed storage connectivity

Storage-discharge relationships and dynamic changes in storage connectivity remain key unknowns in understanding and predicting watershed behavior. In this study, we use Global Positioning System measurements of load-induced Earth surface displacement as a proxy for total water storage change in four climatologically diverse mountain watersheds in the western United States. Comparing total water storage estimates with stream-connected storage derived from hydrograph analysis, we find that each of the investigated watersheds exhibits a characteristic seasonal pattern of connection and disconnection between total and stream-connected storage. We investigate how the degree and timing of watershed-scale connectivity is related to the timing of precipitation and seasonal changes in dominant hydrologic processes. Our results show that elastic deformation of the Earth due to water loading is a powerful new tool for elucidating dynamic storage connectivity and watershed discharge response across scales in space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DEVAP-EDDR-TES (Simulation framework for a desiccant assisted air conditioning system with heat pump regeneration and energy storage) [SWR-24-66]

This software is a simulation framework that models a load flexible air conditioner system. The system consists of an evaporatively cooled liquid desiccant air conditioner (eLD-AC) subsystem, an electrically driven desiccant regenerator (EDDR) subsystem, and a stratified liquid desiccant storage (SLDS) subsystem. The software can be used to 1) predict the steady-state performance of the system given user-specified convergence criteria; 2) predict the dynamic performance of the entire system over a typical drive cycle operation subjected to user-specified building thermal loads and desired electrical load profile; 3) evaluate the synergy of all three subsystems operating altogether and improve the energy storage control strategy.

Huang, Ransisi↗

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A generalizable machine learning-assisted fast Fourier transform algorithm to simulate the large strain phenomena in polycrystalline materials

Machine learning methods have shown initial promise in constitutive modeling for single crystals or homogenized polycrystals, delivering notable computational efficiency. However, existing machine learning-based constitutive models often lack generalizability, limiting their application across diverse boundary value problems. This study introduces a thermodynamics-informed artificial neural network model to accelerate rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform simulations for cross-scale deformation behaviors of polycrystals under complex loading. Our model integrates microstructural variability and local interactions effectively. To address local effects in each grain, we employ K-means clustering to group Gauss points within the microstructure into clusters assumed to be in similar mechanical states. This approach, based on self-clustering analysis, extends model scope from macroscopic stress response to the granular level, capturing mechanical responses and orientation evolution across grains. This reduces the number of nonlinear problems to solve, with cluster responses propagated throughout each group. The thermodynamics-based artificial neural network-extracted features are further processed using local material state clusters to account for history-dependent deformation and evolving microstructures. Additionally, representative volume element simulations with rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform provide reliable datasets for model training. The proposed model demonstrates high efficiency, accuracy, self-consistency, and enhanced generalizability in predicting strain–stress responses and orientation evolution at both individual grain and aggregate scales under complex loading conditions, such as biaxial tension and arbitrary loading scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predictive model using artificial neural network to design phase change material-based ocean thermal energy harvesting systems for powering uncrewed underwater vehicles

Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are a major beneficiary of the phase change material (PCM)-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology for their mission needs. However, this technology relies on different parameters and energy conversion steps that could be critical to the general energy generation efficiency. Sea trials showed that the design performed lower than their laboratory design specifications. This underperformance results from different factors, mainly the UUV’s trajectory, travel time, underwater ocean currents, temperature fluctuations, and biofouling on the heat exchanger due to long term underwater operations. Therefore, there exists a need to continuously monitor the ambient energy harvesting system and predict system performance, for mission planning purposes. Two major parameters influencing the energy harvesting system include the final pressure inside the hydraulic energy storage vessel or accumulator, and the electrical load value. Here, this work focuses on the hydraulic to electric energy conversion system. Therefore, a combination of numerical model and experimental testing is used to develop a predictive model using artificial neural network using MATLAB. After validation with experimental testing, 1000 data samples obtained from the numerical model are used to train the ANN. Compared to the experimental results, the developed ANN model can predict in less than a second the designed benchtop system’s total efficiency with less than 15 percent maximum error range. This predictive model development represents a cost-effective way for optimization and a computational energy efficient mode aboard UUVs for mission planning for deployed UUVs using PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Interplay of intercalation dynamics and lithium plating in monolithic and architectured graphite anodes during fast charging

Fast charging of high-capacity anodes is challenging due to lithium plating reactions, which lead to poor cycling performance and safety concerns. Thus, accurate predictions of plating onset and an understanding of this electrochemical process are crucial for robust battery design. However, the most commonly used models, based on porous electrode theory (e.g., the pseudo-2D model), are notoriously difficult to calibrate due to their complexity, limiting their predictive power. This work studies the process of lithium plating during fast charging of (small-particle) graphite half-cells by measuring local reaction progression and plating behavior using optical operando techniques. These experiments employ a realistic 1D graphite electrode geometry with commercially-relevant mass loading charged at fast charge rates. It is demonstrated that the local reaction progression and plating onset can not only be predicted accurately with a p2D numerical model, but that these processes follow a simple scaling law. Remarkably, the entire reaction histories of different electrodes charged at different rates (e.g., 160 μm thickness at 0.5C, 111 μm at 1C or 66 μm at 4C) were observed to have self-similar intercalation profiles. It is demonstrated that plating onset is in turn governed by the reaction profile which explains why both processes exhibit the same scaling behavior. Finally, operando measurements of local reaction dynamics are conducted for the first time in electrodes with channeled architectures, quantitatively determining how channels affect reaction uniformity and plating onset. Together, these results reveal underlying simplicity in the complex electrochemical environment of fast charging and lithium plating, improving understanding of this process. These fundamental insights are broadly applicable for design processes, modeling and experimental evaluation of lithium ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Predicting Multicomponent Aqueous Phase Adsorption Equilibria of Organic Acids Using the Generalized Brunauer–Emmett–Teller Isotherm Model

Here, to support process development of adsorptive separation of organic acids, this work presents a thermodynamic modeling methodology to predict multicomponent aqueous phase organic acid adsorption equilibria from single-component adsorption isotherms using the generalized Brunauer–Emmett–Teller isotherm model (gBET). With the organic acid fugacities rigorously accounting for the aqueous phase organic acid solution chemistry and solution nonideality, gBET precisely represents the single-component adsorption isotherms and accurately predicts the binary and ternary mixed-acid adsorption equilibria for the ranges of initial pH (∼3–7), acid concentration (100–400 mmol/L), and temperature (298.15–328.15 K) with less than 10% average absolute relative deviation. In addition, gBET with pH-independent parameters provides insights into the underlying adsorption phenomena, including the adsorbate loadings and compositions in the monolayer and subsequent layers under varying initial pH, temperature, concentration, and composition. The gBET model predictions outperform the predictions from the overloading model and the Ideal Dilute Solution Theory.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effects of PLA/PHB Blend Ratio and Wood Flour Loading on the Melt Rheology and Thermomechanical Properties of Biobased Polymer Composites

The development of sustainable, biobased polymer composites is crucial for reducing supply chain dependence on fossil fuels. A major challenge lies in understanding and predicting the processability of these sustainable material alternatives, which directly impacts large-scale manufacturing. Here, this study systematically investigates the effect of poly(lactic acid) (PLA)/polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) blend ratios and wood flour (WF) loadings on the thermal, rheological, and mechanical properties of the composites. Composites were prepared via melt compounding and characterized by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), oscillatory shear melt rheology, tensile testing, and scanning electron microscopy. Results showed that increasing the PHB content lowered the glass transition temperature, while higher PHB and WF loadings decreased thermal stability. Complex viscosity decreased with increasing PHB in 0 and 10% WF, whereas it increased in 20% and 30% WF for PHB-rich blends (80/20 and 70/30 PLA/PHB) due to stronger filler interactions with flexible PHB chains. At 30% WF, PHB-containing composites also showed elastic dominance with G′ higher than G″. This behavior was confirmed by van Gurp–Palmen plots, where the phase angle decreased with increasing PHB and WF loadings. WF addition also shifted Cole–Cole plots away from semicircular terminal relaxation, while time–temperature superposition validity was maintained, confirming that polymer chain dynamics continue to dominate melt behavior. Young’s modulus increased with WF loading, while tensile strength and toughness decreased due to weaker interfacial adhesion between the matrix and the filler. Interestingly, 10% WF systems containing PHB exhibited the highest toughness among all of the filled systems, indicating synergistic reinforcement from WF fillers and PHB-induced ductility. Overall, melt rheology effectively captured the internal structure and stiffness of the composites as the formulation changed, reinforcing the concept that the PLA/PHB ratio and WF content can be tuned to adjust melt elasticity and balance mechanical property trade-offs for targeted applications.

melt rheology↗

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sub-Ambient Performance of Potassium Sarcosinate for Direct Air Capture Applications: CO 2 Flux and Viscosity Measurements

Absorption based direct air capture (DAC) technologies have garnered significant interest in recent years due to their scalability, competitive regeneration energy requirements, and low susceptibility to degradation. One of the key advantages of DAC lies in its flexible siting options and the potential to utilize low-value land. However, most of the research in this field has been focused on ambient climate zones (T > 20 °C), overlooking sub-ambient (–30 °C < T < 20 °C) regions, which comprise approximately 70 % of the Earth’s surface. To fully realize the potential of DAC, it is essential to understand how DAC solvents perform in these sub-ambient conditions before any large-scale deployment can be considered. Among DAC solvents of interest, potassium sarcosinate (K-SAR) has emerged as a promising candidate due to its high CO 2 capacity, fast uptake kinetics, compatibility with contactor packing materials, low volatility, good thermal and oxidative stability, and competitive regeneration energy requirements compared to current industry standards. This paper characterizes the CO 2 flux and viscosity of K-SAR at sub-ambient conditions and explores the potential of using ethylene glycol and triethylene glycol as additives to prevent solvent freezing in DAC applications. For 1 M K-SAR, the CO 2 flux ranges between 1.3 × 10 -5 and 8.0 × 10 -5 mol m –2 s –1 across a temperature range of –5 °C to 45 °C. Ethylene glycol is shown to effectively suppress the freezing point of K-SAR below –30 °C with volumetric loadings of the additive as low as 0.1. Here, a reaction model was developed to predict the CO 2 flux for 1 M K-SAR at different temperatures, demonstrating good agreement between experimental and theoretical fluxes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interpreting dynamic-compression experiments to uncover the time dependence of freezing: Application to gallium

Using pulsed-power magnetic field sources to compress gallium to gigapascal pressures on nanosecond timescales, we report here experiments on shockless dynamic compression of a liquid metal. Time-resolved velocimetry data reveal signatures of rapid freezing from a metastable liquid state, and we demonstrate that the kinetics of this nonequilibrium solidification can be accurately simulated with a computational modeling framework we have developed in previous studies, where classical nucleation theory is coupled with hydrodynamics. Notably, velocity traces in some of our experiments show evidence of a phase transition, while others do not, even though other types of evidence suggest that solidification may be occurring in all of them. We explain how predictions made by our models regarding the presence or absence of these phase-transition signatures motivated additional experiments that later confirmed the theoretical predictions. Our analysis shows that due to the rapid, quasi-isentropic nature of the loading path, our experiments were able to compress liquid gallium to metastable states that are undercooled below the equilibrium melt temperature by more than 300 K and exhibit pressures that approach five times the equilibrium melt pressure. The understanding gained in this study should form the basis for future dynamic-compression experiments aimed at interrogating melt curves at high pressures.

gallium↗

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. Here, in this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m -2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m -2 , the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m -2 . This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗