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NASA NTRS1987

An analytical study of the effects of transverse shear deformation and anisotropy on buckling loads of laminated cylinders

Buckling loads of thick-walled orthotropic and anisotropic simply supported circular cylinders are predicted using a higher-order transverse-shear deformation theory. A comparison of buckling loads predicted by the conventional first-order transverse-shear deformation theory and the higher-order theory show that the additional allowance for transverse shear deformation has a negligible effect on the predicted buckling loads of medium-thick metallic isotropic cylinders. However, the higher-order theory predicts buckling loads which are significantly lower than those predicted by the first-order transverse-shear deformation theory for certain short, thick-walled cylinders which have low through-the-thickness shear moduli. A parametric study of the effects of ply orientation on the buckling load of axially compressed cylinders indicates that laminates containing 45 degree plies are most sensitive to transverse-shear deformation effects. Interaction curves for buckling loads of cylinders subjected to axial compressive and external pressure loadings indicate that buckling loads due to external pressure loadings are as sensitive to transverse-shear deformation effects as buckling loads due to axial compressive loadings. The effects of anisotropy are important over a much wider range of cylinder geometries than the effects of transverse shear deformation.

Jegley, Dawn C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Evaluation of a strain-gage load calibration on a low-aspect-ratio wing structure at elevated temperature

The environmental aspect of elevated temperature and its relationship to the science of strain gage calibrations of aircraft structures are addressed. A section of a wing designed for a high-speed aircraft structure was used to study this problem. This structure was instrumented with strain gages calibrated at both elevated and room temperatures. Load equations derived from a high-temperature load calibration were compared with equations derived from an identical load calibration at room temperature. The implications of the high temperature load calibration were studied from the viewpoint of applicability and necessity. Load equations derived from the room temperature load calibration resulted in generally lower equation standard errors than equations derived from the elevated temperature load calibration. A distributed load was applied to the structure at elevated temperature and strain gage outputs were measured. This applied load was then calculated using equations derived from both the room temperature and elevated temperature calibration data. It was found that no significant differences between the two equation systems existed in terms of computing this applied distributed load, as long as the thermal shifts resulting from thermal stresses could be identified. This identification requires a heating of the structure. Therefore, it is concluded that for this structure, a high temperature load calibration is not required. However, a heating of the structure is required to determine thermal shifts.

Reardon, Lawrence F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

The work performed to develop composite load spectra (CLS) for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) using probabilistic methods. The three methods were implemented to be the engine system influence model. RASCAL was chosen to be the principal method as most component load models were implemented with the method. Validation of RASCAL was performed. High accuracy comparable to the Monte Carlo method can be obtained if a large enough bin size is used. Generic probabilistic models were developed and implemented for load calculations using the probabilistic methods discussed above. Each engine mission, either a real fighter or a test, has three mission phases: the engine start transient phase, the steady state phase, and the engine cut off transient phase. Power level and engine operating inlet conditions change during a mission. The load calculation module provides the steady-state and quasi-steady state calculation procedures with duty-cycle-data option. The quasi-steady state procedure is for engine transient phase calculations. In addition, a few generic probabilistic load models were also developed for specific conditions. These include the fixed transient spike model, the poison arrival transient spike model, and the rare event model. These generic probabilistic load models provide sufficient latitude for simulating loads with specific conditions. For SSME components, turbine blades, transfer ducts, LOX post, and the high pressure oxidizer turbopump (HPOTP) discharge duct were selected for application of the CLS program. They include static pressure loads and dynamic pressure loads for all four components, centrifugal force for the turbine blade, temperatures of thermal loads for all four components, and structural vibration loads for the ducts and LOX posts.

Newell, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic load simulation: Code development status

The objective of the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) project is to develop generic load models to simulate the composite load spectra that are included in space propulsion system components. The probabilistic loads thus generated are part of the probabilistic design analysis (PDA) of a space propulsion system that also includes probabilistic structural analyses, reliability, and risk evaluations. Probabilistic load simulation for space propulsion systems demands sophisticated probabilistic methodology and requires large amounts of load information and engineering data. The CLS approach is to implement a knowledge based system coupled with a probabilistic load simulation module. The knowledge base manages and furnishes load information and expertise and sets up the simulation runs. The load simulation module performs the numerical computation to generate the probabilistic loads with load information supplied from the CLS knowledge base.

Newell, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1954

A study of the application of power-spectral methods of generalized harmonic analysis to gust loads on airplanes

The applicability of some results from the theory of generalized harmonic analysis (or power-spectral analysis) to the analysis of gust loads on airplanes in continuous rough air is examined. The general relations for linear systems between power spectrums of a random input disturbance and an output response are used to relate the spectrum of airplane load in rough air to the spectrum of atmospheric gust velocity. The power spectrum of loads is shown to provide a measure of the load intensity in terms of the standard deviation (root mean square) of the load distribution for an airplane in flight through continuous rough air. For the case of a load output having a normal distribution, which appears from experimental evidence to apply to homogeneous rough air, the standard deviation is shown to describe the probability distribution of loads or the proportion of total time that the load has given values. Thus, for airplane in flight through homogeneous rough air, the probability distribution of loads may be determined from a power-spectral analysis. In order to illustrate the application of power-spectral analysis to gust-load analysis and to obtain an insight into the relations between loads and airplane gust-response characteristics, two selected series of calculations are presented. The results indicate that both methods of analysis yield results that are consistent to a first approximation.

Press, Harry↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mechanically fastened composite laminates subjected to combined bearing-bypass and shear loading

Bolts and rivets provide a means of load transfer in the construction of aircraft. However, they give rise to stress concentrations and are often the source and location of static and fatigue failures. Furthermore, fastener holes are prone to cracks during take-off and landing. These cracks present the most common origin of structural failures in aircraft. Therefore, accurate determination of the contact stresses associated with such loaded holes in mechanically fastened joints is essential to reliable strength evaluation and failure prediction. As the laminate is subjected to loading, the contact region, whose extent is not known, develops between the fastener and the hole boundary through this contact region, which consists of slip and no-slip zones due to friction. The presence of the unknown contact stress distribution over the contact region between the pin and the composite laminate, material anisotropy, friction between the pin and the laminate, pin-hole clearance, combined bearing-bypass and shear loading, and finite geometry of the laminate result in a complex non-linear problem. In the case of bearing-bypass loading in compression, this non-linear problem is further complicated by the presence of dual contact regions. Previous research concerning the analysis of mechanical joints subjected to combined bearing-bypass and shear loading is non-existent. In the case of bearing-bypass loading only, except for the study conducted by Naik and Crews (1991), others employed the concept of superposition which is not valid for this non-linear problem. Naik and Crews applied a linear finite element analysis with conditions along the pin-hole contact region specified as displacement constraint equations. The major shortcoming of this method is that the variation of the contract region as a function of the applied load should be known a priori. Also, their analysis is limited to symmetric geometry and material systems, and frictionless boundary conditions. Since the contact stress distribution and the contact region are not known a priori, they did not directly impose the boundary conditions appropriate for modelling the contact and on-contact regions between the fastener and the hole. Furthermore, finite element analysis is not suitable for iterative design calculations for optimizing laminate construction in the presence of fasteners under complex loading conditions. In this study, the solution method developed by Madenci and Ileri (1992a,b) has been extended to determine the contact stresses in mechanical joints under combined bearing-bypass and shear loading, and bearing-bypass loading in compression resulting in dual contact regions.

Madenci, Erdogan↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Methodology for Flight-Time Identification of Helicopter-Slung Load Frequency Response Characteristics Using CIFER

Helicopter slung load operations are common in both military and civil contexts. The slung load adds load rigid body modes, sling stretching, and load aerodynamics to the system dynamics, which can degrade system stability and handling qualities, and reduce the operating envelope of the combined system below that of the helicopter alone. Further, the effects of the load on system dynamics vary significantly among the large range of loads, slings, and flight conditions that a utility helicopter will encounter in its operating life. In this context, military helicopters and loads are often qualified for slung load operations via flight tests which can be time consuming and expensive. One way to reduce the cost and time required to carry out these tests and generate quantitative data more readily is to provide an efficient method for analysis during the flight, so that numerous test points can be evaluated in a single flight test, with evaluations performed in near real time following each test point and prior to clearing the aircraft to the next point. Methodology for this was implemented at Ames and demonstrated in slung load flight tests in 1997 and was improved for additional flight tests in 1999. The parameters of interest for the slung load tests are aircraft handling qualities parameters (bandwidth and phase delay), stability margins (gain and phase margin), and load pendulum roots (damping and natural frequency). A procedure for the identification of these parameters from frequency sweep data was defined using the CIFER software package. CIFER is a comprehensive interactive package of utilities for frequency domain analysis previously developed at Ames for aeronautical flight test applications. It has been widely used in the US on a variety of aircraft, including some primitive flight time analysis applications.

Sahai, Ranjana↗

NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Loads for the Ares I-X Test Flight Vehicle

In trajectory-based loads, the structural engineer treats each point on the trajectory as a load case. Distributed aero, inertial, and propulsion forces are developed for the structural model which are equivalent to the integrated values of the trajectory model. Free-body diagrams are then used to solve for the internal forces, or loads, that keep the applied aero, inertial, and propulsion forces in dynamic equilibrium. There are several advantages to using trajectory-based loads. First, consistency is maintained between the integrated equilibrium equations of the trajectory analysis and the distributed equilibrium equations of the structural analysis. Second, the structural loads equations are tied to the uncertainty model for the trajectory systems analysis model. Atmosphere, aero, propulsion, mass property, and controls uncertainty models all feed into the dispersions that are generated for the trajectory systems analysis model. Changes in any of these input models will affect structural loads response. The trajectory systems model manages these inputs as well as the output from the structural model over thousands of dispersed cases. Large structural models with hundreds of thousands of degrees of freedom would execute too slowly to be an efficient part of several thousand system analyses. Trajectory-based loads provide a means for the structures discipline to be included in the integrated systems analysis. Successful applications of trajectory-based loads methods for the Ares I-X vehicle are covered in this paper. Preliminary design loads were based on 2000 trajectories using Monte Carlo dispersions. Range safety loads were tied to 8423 malfunction turn trajectories. In addition, active control system loads were based on 2000 preflight trajectories using Monte Carlo dispersions.

Vause, Roland F.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Environmental Effects on Long Term Displacement Data of Woven Fabric Webbings Under Constant Load for Inflatable Structures

An experimental study of the effects of environmental temperature and humidity conditions on long-term creep displacement data of high strength Kevlar and VectranTM woven fabric webbings under constant load for inflatable structures is presented. The restraint layer of an inflatable structure for long-duration space exploration missions is designed to bear load and consists of an assembly of high strength webbings. Long-term creep displacement data of webbings can be utilized by designers to validate service life parameters of restraint layers of inflatable structures. Five groups of high-strength webbings were researched over a two year period. Each group had a unique webbing length, load rating, applied load, and test period. The five groups consisted of 1.) 6K Vectran webbings loaded to 49% ultimate tensile strength (UTS), 2.) 6K Vectran webbings loaded to 55% UTS, 3.) 12.5K Vectran webbings loaded to 22% UTS, 4.) 6K Kevlar webbings loaded to 40% and 43% UTS, and 5.) 6K Kevlar webbings loaded to 48% UTS. Results show that all webbing groups exhibit the initial two stages of three of a typical creep curve of an elastic material. Results also show that webbings exhibit unique local wave patterns over the duration of the test period. Data indicate that the local pattern is primarily generated by daily variations in relative humidity values within the test facility. Data indicate that after a three to six month period, where webbings reach a steady-state creep condition, an annual sinusoidal displacement pattern is exhibited, primarily due to variations in annual mean temperature values. Data indicates that variations in daily temperature values and annual mean humidity values have limited secondary effects on creep displacement behavior. Results show that webbings in groups 2 and 5 do not exhibit well defined annual displacement patterns because the magnitude of the applied loads cause large deformations, and data indicate that material yielding within a webbing tends to neutralize the annual sinusoidal displacement pattern. Study indicates that applied load, environmental effects, mechanical strength, coefficient of thermal expansion, and hygroscopic properties of webbings are fundamental requirements for quantifying accurate creep displacements and behaviors over multiple year time periods. Results from a study of the environmental effects on long-term creep displacement data of Kevlar and Vectran woven webbings are presented to increase the knowledge base of webbing materials and to enhance designs of inflatable space structures for long-duration space missions.

Kenner, WInfred S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Universal Tare Load Prediction Algorithm for Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis

An algorithm is discussed that may be used to estimate tare loads of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm was originally developed by R. Galway of IAR/NRC Canada and has been described in the literature for the iterative analysis technique. Basic ideas of Galway's algorithm, however, are universally applicable and work for both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique. A recent modification of Galway's algorithm is presented that improves the convergence behavior of the tare load prediction process if it is used in combination with the non-iterative analysis technique. The modified algorithm allows an analyst to use an alternate method for the calculation of intermediate non-linear tare load estimates whenever Galway's original approach does not lead to a convergence of the tare load iterations. It is also shown in detail how Galway's algorithm may be applied to the non-iterative analysis technique. Hand load data from the calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the original and modified tare load prediction method. During the analysis of the data both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique were applied. Overall, predicted tare loads for combinations of the two tare load prediction methods and the two balance data analysis techniques showed excellent agreement as long as the tare load iterations converged. The modified algorithm, however, appears to have an advantage over the original algorithm when absolute voltage measurements of gage outputs are processed using the non-iterative analysis technique. In these situations only the modified algorithm converged because it uses an exact solution of the intermediate non-linear tare load estimate for the tare load iteration.

balance calibration analysis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Wing Load Calibration and Sensing Methods Using Conventional Strain Gages and a Fiber Optic Sensing System Installed on a Straight Tapered Wing

State-of-the-art instrumentation techniques have provided an opportunity to obtain greater insight into structural wing loads during flight. An investigation was undertaken to research new wing instrumentation and load sensing techniques for measuring accurate in-flight spanwise load distributions on wing structures. A straight tapered wing was instrumented with both conventional foil strain gages at five spanwise wing stations and fiber optic strain sensors at every half inch along the entire wing span. Thirty-nine unique load cases were applied to the wing lower surface using hydraulic actuators to obtain various shear, bending moment, and torque load distributions on the wing. This paper will highlight three load calibration approaches. Conventional linear regression calibration methods were applied to foil strain gages providing a single wing station vertical shear, bending moment, and torque load. Linear regression methods were applied to a fiber optic sensing system to provide bending moment and torque spanwise load distributions. A load sensing scheme using strain derived wing shape information derived from a single load case provided vertical shear and bending moment spanwise load distribution information. Aspects of the three different approaches will be compared and contrasted to inform the reader of the benefits or disadvantages of each. Instrument installation, sensor characteristics, test execution aspects, and recommended calibration techniques will be discussed.

structural mechanics↗

NASA NTRS2019

Operation of a Heat Pipe with Multiple Heat Loads Under Reflux Mode

"Heat pipes are being used on many spacecraft to acquire heat dissipated by the payload and transport the heat to a remote radiator. In instrument-level or spacecraft-level ground testing, many heat pipes are placed in a gravity-driven reflux mode where the condenser is well above the evaporator, resulting in the formation of a liquid pool at the bottom of the heat pipe. If a head load is applied to a site that is in contact with the liquid pool, the generated vapor will flow upward to the condenser and the condensate will fall back to the evaporator due the influence of gravity. Hence, the heat pipe can operate steadily under reflux mode because the heated site always has sufficient liquid supply to sustain the fluid flow. In contrast, when a heat load is applied to a site remote from the liquid pool, the heat pipe will be unable to transfer heat through liquid evaporation unless the heated site has a chance to be in contact with liquid. This can be accomplished by applying an additional heat load to the liquid pool to establish a reflux flow so that the remote site can capture the falling condensate. An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effect of gravity on the thermal performance of a heat pipe under reflux mode with multiple heat loads. An aluminum ammonia heat pipe with internal axial grooves was placed in a vertical position. Cooling was provided to the top of the heat pipe, and heat was applied to three sites below the condenser with various heat distributions. One of the heated sites was above the liquid pool, and two were in direct contact with the liquid pool. Test results showed that when a heat load was applied to either one or both of the lower sites, the heat pipe could run steadily under reflux mode. After a reflux flow had been established, a heat load could be applied to the upper site. If the upper site could capture sufficient liquid falling from the condenser to handle its heat load solely by liquid evaporation, the heat pipe could reach steady operation. Otherwise, the temperature of the upper site would oscillate due to its intermittent contact with the falling liquid. For a given heat load to the upper site, the amplitude of temperature oscillation decreased with an increasing heat load to the lower sites because there was more falling condensate available for the upper site to capture. Moreover, the temperature oscillation disappeared completely when the total heat loads to lower sites exceeded a threshold power, and the threshold power increased with an increasing heat load to the upper site."

Ku, Jentung↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvements of the Load Schedule for the Machine Calibration of a Strain-Gage Balance

The load schedule for the calibration of a six-component force balance in a calibration machine was improved. Now, single-component loads are repeated in regular intervals during the calibration. This approach has several advantages. First, the number of single-component loads increases to about twenty-two percent of all loads and load combinations. Consequently, more accurate numerical estimates of the primary bridge sensitivities can be obtained if global regression is used for the analysis of the calibration data. In addition, single-component repeats make it possible to track the stability of the applied loads during the calibration process. Finally, interactions of single-component repeats can be compared with interactions that are observed during the application of manual loads to the balance. Machine calibration and manual data sets of two force balances are used to illustrate benefits of the new load schedule. It is shown in the examples how differences between the observed interactions of machine calibration and manual data can be quantified. The suggested improvements can also be implemented in the load schedule for the machine calibration of a moment or direct-read balance as long as single-component loads are included that are described in the design load format of the balance.

wind tunnel test↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Load Analysis Methods for NASAs GIII Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge Project

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC), and FlexSys Inc. (Ann Arbor, Michigan) have collaborated to flight test the Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge (ACTE) flaps. These flaps were installed on a Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (GAC) GIII aircraft and tested at AFRC at various deflection angles over a range of flight conditions. External aerodynamic and inertial load analyses were conducted with the intention to ensure that the change in wing loads due to the deployed ACTE flap did not overload the existing baseline GIII wing box structure. The objective of this paper was to substantiate the analysis tools used for predicting wing loads at AFRC. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models and distributed mass inertial models were developed for predicting the loads on the wing. The analysis tools included TRANAIR (full potential) and CMARC (panel) models. Aerodynamic pressure data from the analysis codes were validated against static pressure port data collected in-flight. Combined results from the CFD predictions and the inertial load analysis were used to predict the normal force, bending moment, and torque loads on the wing. Wing loads obtained from calibrated strain gages installed on the wing were used for substantiation of the load prediction tools. The load predictions exhibited good agreement compared to the flight load results obtained from calibrated strain gage measurements.

Aerodynamic Loads↗

NASA NTRS1946

Tank tests to determine the effect of varying design parameters of planing-tail hulls II : effect of varying depth of step, angle of after- body keel, length of afterbody chine, and gross load

The second part of a series of tests made in Langley tank no. 2 to determine the effect of varying design parameters of planing-tail hulls is presented. Results are given to show the effects on resistance characteristics of varying angle of afterbody keel, depth of step, and length of afterbody chine. The effect of varying the gross load is shown for one configuration. The resistance characteristics of planing-tail hulls are compared with those of a conventional flying-boat hull. The forces on the forebody and afterbody of one configuration are compared with the forces on a conventional hull. Increasing the angle of afterbody keel had small effect on hump resistance and no effect on high-speed resistance but increased free-to-trim resistance at intermediate speeds. Increasing the depth of step increased hump resistance, had little effect on high-speed resistance, and increased free-to-trim resistance at intermediate speeds. Omitting the chines on the forward 25 percent of the afterbody had no appreciable effect on resistance. Omitting 70 percent of the chine length had almost no effect on maximum resistance but broadened the hump and increased spray around the afterbody. Load-resistance ratio at the hump decreased more rapidly with increasing load coefficient for the planing-tail hull than for the representative conventional hull, although the load-resistance ratio at the hump was greater for the planing-tail hull than for the conventional hull throughout the range of loads tested. At speeds higher than hump speed, load-resistance ratio for the planing-tail hull was a maximum at a particular gross load and was slightly less at heavier and lighter gross loads. The planing-tail hull was found to have lower resistance than the conventional hull at both the hump and at high speeds, but at intermediate speeds there was little difference. The lower hump resistance of the planing-tail hull was attributed to the ability of the afterbody to carry a greater percentage of the total load while maintaining a higher value of load-resistance ratio.

HULLS - RESISTANCE - TANK TESTS (NACA-#2)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of the 2nd Gen 3.7m HIAD Static Load Test

To support NASAs long term goal of landing humans on Mars, technologies which enable the landing of heavy payloads are being developed. Current entry, decent, and landing technologies are not practical for human class payloads due to geometric constraints dictated by current launch vehicle fairing limitations. Therefore, past and present technologies are now being explored to provide a mass and volume efficient solution to atmospheric entry, including Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIADs). In October of 2014, a 3.7m HIAD inflatable structure with an integrated flexible thermal protection sys-tem (F-TPS) was subjected to a static load test series to verify the designs structural performance. The 3.7m HIAD structure was constructed in a 70 deg sphere-cone stacked-toroid configuration using eight inflatable tori, which were joined together using adhesives and high strength textile webbing to help distribute the loads throughout the inflatable structure. The inflatable structure was fabricated using 2nd generation structural materials that permit an increase in use temperature to 400 C+ as compared to the 250 C limitation of the 1st generation materials. In addition to the temperature benefit, these materials also offer a 40 reduction in structure mass. The 3.7m F-TPS was fabricated using high performance materials to protect the inflatable structure from heat loads that would be seen during atmospheric entry. The F-TPS was constructed of 2nd generation TPS materials increasing its heating capability from 35W sq cm to over 100W sq cm. This test article is the first stacked-torus HIAD to be fabricated and tested with a 70 deg sphere-cone. All previous stacked-torus HIADs have employed a 60o sphere-cone. To perform the static load test series, a custom test fixture was constructed. The fixture consisted of a structural tub rim with enough height to allow for dis-placement of the inflatable structure as loads were applied. The tub rim was attached to the floor to provide an airtight seal. The center body of the inflatable structure was attached to a pedestal mount as seen in Figure 1. Using an impermeable membrane seal draped over the test article, partial vacuum was pulled beneath the HIAD, resulting in a uniform static pressure load applied to the outer surface. During the test series an extensive amount of instrumentation was used to characterize deformed shape, shoulder deflection, strap loads, and cord loads as a function of structural configuration and applied static load. In this overview, the 3.7m HIAD static load test series will be discussed in detail, including the 3.7m HIAD inflatable structure and flexible TPS design, test setup and execution, and finally results and conclusions from the test series.

HIAD↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

NASA NTRS1985

Estimation of dynamic rotor loads for the rotor systems research aircraft: Methodology development and validation

The Rotor Systems Research Aircraft uses load cells to isolate the rotor/transmission systm from the fuselage. A mathematical model relating applied rotor loads and inertial loads of the rotor/transmission system to the load cell response is required to allow the load cells to be used to estimate rotor loads from flight data. Such a model is derived analytically by applying a force and moment balance to the isolated rotor/transmission system. The model is tested by comparing its estimated values of applied rotor loads with measured values obtained from a ground based shake test. Discrepancies in the comparison are used to isolate sources of unmodeled external loads. Once the structure of the mathematical model has been validated by comparison with experimental data, the parameters must be identified. Since the parameters may vary with flight condition it is desirable to identify the parameters directly from the flight data. A Maximum Likelihood identification algorithm is derived for this purpose and tested using a computer simulation of load cell data. The identification is found to converge within 10 samples. The rapid convergence facilitates tracking of time varying parameters of the load cell model in flight.

Duval, R. W.↗