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At least 181 records · Page 10

A mesoscale sixth-order numerical modelling system

A numerical simulation system is currently under development for NASA which is intended to improve the modeling of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development and atmospheric transport processes. The model utilizes a standard hydrostatic sigma-p coordinate primitive equation set, with x,y-space differencing accurate to eighth order. A three-step dynamic initialization procedure is employed between the analysis of real-time data and grid interpolation. Results of an 18-hour simulation during which synoptic scale cyclogenesis, subsynoptic scale jet streak adjustments, mesoscale convergence zones and tornadic storms were observed have shown the present model to have the potential for simulating the fine-scale structure of features associated with cyclogenesis and intense squall-line development. The mesoscale model was also found to produce less truncation than the NWS LFM model, although a frictionless version of the mesoscale model somewhat overdeepens and overaccelerates features.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

Kocin, P. J.↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data fiom the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo- China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the lowlevel temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation.

Wang, Yansen↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet sreak and planetary boundary layer adjustments in organizing an apparently isolated convective complex

A mesoscale atmospheric simulation system is described that is being developed in order to improve the simulation of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development, and significant atmospheric transport processes. Present emphasis in model development is in the parameterization of physical processes, time-dependent boundary conditions, sophisticated initialization and analysis procedures, nested grid solutions, and applications software development. Basic characteristics of the system as of March 1982 are listed. In a case study, the Grand Island tornado outbreak of 3 June 1980 is considered in substantial detail. Results of simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system indicate that over the high plains subtle interactions between existing jet streaks and deep well mixed boundary layers can lead to well organized patterns of mesoscale divergence and pressure falls. The amplitude and positioning of these mesoscale features is a function of the subtle nonlinear interaction between the pre-existing jet-streak and deep well mixed boundary layers. Model results for the case study indicate that the model has the potential for forecasting the precursor mesoscale convective environment.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

The new Mars-GRAM auxiliary profile capability, using data from TES observations, mesoscale model output, or other sources, allows a potentially higher fidelity representation of the atmosphere, and a more accurate way of estimating inherent uncertainty in atmospheric density and winds. Figure 3 indicates that, with nominal value rpscale=1, Mars-GRAM perturbations would tend to overestimate observed or mesoscale-modeled variability. To better represent TES and mesoscale model density perturbations, rpscale values as low as about 0.4 could be used. Some trajectory model implementations of Mars-GRAM allow the user to dynamically change rpscale and rwscale values with altitude. Figure 4 shows that an mscale value of about 1.2 would better replicate wind standard deviations from MRAMS or MMM5 simulations at the Gale, Terby, or Melas sites. By adjusting the rpscale and rwscale values in Mars-GRAM based on figures such as Figure 3 and 4, we can provide more accurate end-to-end simulations for EDL at the candidate MSL landing sites.

Justh, H. L.↗

Meso-beta scale numerical simulation studies of terrain-induced jet streak mass/momentum perturbations

An in-depth analysis of observed gravity waves and their relationship to precipitation bands over the Montana mesonetwork during the 1981 CCOPE case study indicates that there were two episodes of coherent internal gravity waves. One of the fundamental unanswered questions from this research, however, concerns the dynamical processes which generated the observed waves, all of which originated from the region encompassing the borders of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming. While geostrophic adjustment, shearing instability, and terrain where all implicated separately or in concert as possible wave generation mechanisms, the lack of upper-air data within the wave genesis region made it difficult to rigorously define the genesis processes from observations alone. In this report we employ a mesoscale numerical model to help diagnose the intricate early wave generation mechanisms during the first observed wave episode.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗

The microscopic state of the solar wind: Links between composition, velocity distributions, waves and turbulence

An overview is given of the microscopic state of the solar wind with emphasis on recent Ulysses high-latitude observations and previous Helios in-ecliptic observations. The possible links between composition, ionization state. velocity distribution functions of electrons, protons and heavy ions. kinetic plasma waves and MHD-scale turbulence are elaborated. Emphasis is placed on a connection of interplanetary kinetic-scale phenomena with their generating microscopic processes in the corona. The fast streams seem to consist of mesoscale pressure-balanced plasma filaments and magnetic flux tubes, reminiscent of the supergranular-size structures building the open corona, from which copious Alfven waves emanate. The wind from the magnetically structured and active corona shows developed compressive turbulence and considerable abundance and ionization state variations. Some modelling attempts to explain the observed element fractionation are briefly reviewed. The causes of the nonthermal particle features. such as proton-ion differential streaming, ion beams. temperature anisotropies, and skewed distributions associated with collisionless heat conduction, are ultimately to be searched in the fact, that the corona is never quiescent but fundamentally variable in space and time. Consequently, the radial evolution of the internal state of the wind resembles at all latitudes a complicated relaxation process, in the course of which the free (in comparison with LTE conditions) particle kinetic energy is converted into plasma waves and MHD turbulence on a wide range of scales. This leads to intermittent wave-particle interactions and unsteady anomalous transport, mixed with the weak effects of the rare Coulomb collisions. Spherical expansion and large-scale inhomogeneity forces the wind to attain microscopically a complex internal state of dynamic statistical equilibrium.

Marsch, E.↗

A Parameterization for the Triggering of Landscape Generated Moist Convection

A set of relatively high resolution three-dimensional (3D) simulations were produced to investigate the triggering of moist convection by landscape generated mesoscale circulations. The local accumulated rainfall varied monotonically (linearly) with the size of individual landscape patches, demonstrating the need to develop a trigger function that is sensitive to the size of individual patches. A new triggering function that includes the effect of landscapes generated mesoscale circulations over patches of different sizes consists of a parcel's perturbation in vertical velocity (nu(sub 0)), temperature (theta(sub 0)), and moisture (q(sub 0)). Each variable in the triggering function was also sensitive to soil moisture gradients, atmospheric initial conditions, and moist processes. The parcel's vertical velocity, temperature, and moisture perturbation were partitioned into mesoscale and turbulent components. Budget equations were derived for theta(sub 0) and q(sub 0). Of the many terms in this set of budget equations, the turbulent, vertical flux of the mesoscale temperature and moisture contributed most to the triggering of moist convection through the impact of these fluxes on the parcel's temperature and moisture profile. These fluxes needed to be parameterized to obtain theta(sub 0) and q(sub 0). The mesoscale vertical velocity also affected the profile of nu(sub 0). We used similarity theory to parameterize these fluxes as well as the parcel's mesoscale vertical velocity.

Lynn, Barry H.↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗

Understanding Ice Supersaturation, Particle Growth, and Number Concentration in Cirrus Clouds

Many factors control the ice supersaturation and microphysical properties in cirrus clouds. We explore the effects of dynamic forcing, ice nucleation mechanisms, and ice crystal growth rate on the evolution and distribution of water vapor and cloud properties in nighttime cirrus clouds using a one-dimensional cloud model with bin microphysics and remote sensing measurements obtained at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility located near Lamont, OK. We forced the model using both large-scale vertical ascent and, for the first time, mean mesoscale velocity derived from radar Doppler velocity measurements. Both heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation processes are explored, where a classical theory heterogeneous scheme is compared with empirical representations. We evaluated model simulations by examining both bulk cloud properties and distributions of measured radar reflectivity, lidar extinction, and water vapor profiles, as well as retrieved cloud microphysical properties. Our results suggest that mesoscale variability is the primary mechanism needed to reproduce observed quantities. Model sensitivity to the ice growth rate is also investigated. The most realistic simulations as compared with observations are forced using mesoscale waves, include fast ice crystal growth, and initiate ice by either homogeneous or heterogeneous nucleation. Simulated ice crystal number concentrations (tens to hundreds particles per liter) are typically two orders of magnitude smaller than previously published results based on aircraft measurements in cirrus clouds, although higher concentrations are possible in isolated pockets within the nucleation zone.

Comstock, Jennifer M.↗

High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, ground processing, and weather advisories, watches, and warnings at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally-driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the local forecasters. Surface winds during the transition seasons (spring and fall) pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned local data assimilation (DA) and forecast model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. To accomplish this, a number of sensitivity tests were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to determine the best DA/model configuration for operational use at each of the space launch ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. A set of Perl scripts to run the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/WRF in real-time were provided by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). The GSI can analyze many types of observational data including satellite, radar, and conventional data. The GSI/WRF scripts use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

Watson, Leela R.↗

The Diurnal Cycle in TOGA-COARE: Regional Scale Model Simulations

The diurnal variation of precipitation processes over the tropics is a well-known phenomenon and has been studied using surface rainfall data, radar reflectivity data, and satellite-derived cloudiness and precipitation. Recently, analyzed observations from Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the tropical western Pacific ocean to study the relevant mechanisms producing diurnal variation of precipitation. They found that the diurnal Sea surface temperature (SST) cycle is important for afternoon showers in the undisturbed periods and diurnal radiative processes for nocturnal rainfall. Cloud resolving models (CRMS) have been used to determine the mechanisms associated with diurnal variation of precipitating processes. CRMs allow explicit cloud-radiation and air-sea interactive processes. However, CRMs can be only used for idealized simulations (i.e., no feedback between clouds and their embedded large-scale environments; cyclic lateral boundary conditions and idealized initial conditions). In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (covers the TOGA COARE LSA/IFA with a 54 km grid and can nest down to 18, 6 and possibly even 2 km) will be adopted for studying the diurnal variations of rainfall. We will examine precipitation processes over open ocean and over land. We will also perform sensitivity tests to determine how the radiative forcing and diurnal SST cycle affects the development of convection.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS)

This effort involves development of a calibrated, pulsed coherent CO2 Doppler lidar, followed by a carefully-planned and -executed program of multi-dimensional wind velocity and aerosol backscatter measurements from the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. The lidar, designated as the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS), will be applicable to two research areas. First, MACAWS will enable specialized measurements of atmospheric dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer and free troposphere in geographic locations and over scales of motion not routinely or easily accessible to conventional sensors. The proposed observations will contribute fundamentally to a greater understanding of the role of the mesoscale, helping to improve predictive capabilities for mesoscale phenomena and to provide insights into improving model parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes within large-scale circulation models. As such, it has the potential to contribute uniquely to major, multi-institutional field programs planned for the mid 1990's. Second, MACAWS measurements can be used to reduce the degree of uncertainty in performance assessments and algorithm development for NASA's prospective Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS), which has no space-based instrument heritage. Ground-based lidar measurements alone are insufficient to address all of the key issues. To minimize costs, MACAWS is being developed cooperatively by the lidar remote sensing groups of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NOAA Wave Propagation Laboratory, and MSFC using existing lidar hardware and manpower resources. Several lidar components have already been exercised in previous airborne lidar programs (for example, MSFC Airborne Doppler Lidar System (ADLS) used in 1981,4 Severe Storms Wind Measurement Program; JPL Airborne Backscatter Lidar Experiment (ABLE) used in 1989,90 Global Backscatter Experiment Survey Missions). MSFC has been given responsibility for directing the overall program of instrument development and scientific measurement. The focus of current research and plans for next year are presented.

Rhothermel, Jeffry↗

Rain scavenging of solid rocket exhaust clouds

An explicit model for cloud microphysics was developed for application to the problem of co-condensation/vaporization of HCl and H2O in the presence of Al2O3 particulate nuclei. Validity of the explicit model relative to the implicit model, which has been customarily applied to atmospheric cloud studies, was demonstrated by parallel computations of H2O condensation upon (NH4)2 SO4 nuclei. A mesoscale predictive model designed to account for the impact of wet processes on atmospheric dynamics is also under development. Input data specifying the equilibrium state of HC1 and H2O vapors in contact with aqueous HC1 solutions were found to be limited, particularly in respect to temperature range.

Dingle, A. N.↗

Analysis and modeling of summertime convective cloud and precipitation structure over the Southeastern United States

A summary of an investigation of deep convective cloud systems that typify the summertime subtropical environment of northern Alabama is presented. The major portion of the research effort included analysis of data acquired during the 1986 Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX), which consisted of the joint programs Satellite Precipitation and Cloud Experiment (SPACE) under NASA direction, the Microburst and Service Thunderstorm (MIST) Program under NSF sponsorship, and the FAA-Lincoln Laboratory Weather Study (FLOWS). This work relates closely to the SPACE component of COHMEX, one of the general goals of which was to further the understanding of kinematic and precipitation structure of convective cloud systems. The special observational plateforms that were available under the SPACE/COHMEX Program are shown. The original objectives included studies of both isolated deep convection and of (small) mesoscale convection systems that are observed in the Southeast environment. In addition, it was proposed to include both observational and comparative numerical modeling studies of these characteristic cloud systems. Changes in scope were made during the course of this investigation to better accommodate both the manpower available and the data that was acquired. A greater emphasis was placed on determination of the internal structure of small mesoscale convective systems, and the relationship of internal dynamical and microphysical processes to the observed cloud top behavior as inferred from GOES IR (30 min) data. The major accomplishments of this investigation are presented.

Knupp, Kevin R.↗