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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions From Aviation Soot Emissions

Current models estimate global aviation contributes approximately 5% to the total anthropogenic climate forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions having the greatest effect. However, radiative forcing estimates from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions remain undetermined. There is an expected significant increase in aircraft emissions with aviation demand expected to rise by over 4% per year. Soot may play an important role in the ice nucleation of aircraft-induced cirrus formation due to a high emission rate, but the ice nucleating properties are poorly constrained. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial for the reliable parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models due to their impact on precipitation and cloud radiative properties. Ice nucleation of aircraft-emitted soot is potentially affected by particle morphology with condensation of supercooled water occurring in pores followed by ice nucleation. However, soot has heterogeneous properties and undergoes atmospheric aging and oxidation that could change surface properties and contribute to complex ice nucleation processes. Further, this review synthesizes current knowledge of ice nucleation catalyzed by aviation in the cirrus regime and its effects on global radiative forcing. Further research is required to determine the ice nucleation and microphysical processes of cirrus cloud formation from aviation emissions in both controlled laboratory and field investigations to inform models for more accurate climate predictions and to provide efficient mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic machine learning for battery health diagnostics and prognostics—review and perspectives

Abstract Diagnosing lithium-ion battery health and predicting future degradation is essential for driving design improvements in the laboratory and ensuring safe and reliable operation over a product’s expected lifetime. However, accurate battery health diagnostics and prognostics is challenging due to the unavoidable influence of cell-to-cell manufacturing variability and time-varying operating circumstances experienced in the field. Machine learning approaches informed by simulation, experiment, and field data show enormous promise to predict the evolution of battery health with use; however, until recently, the research community has focused on deterministic modeling methods, largely ignoring the cell-to-cell performance and aging variability inherent to all batteries. To truly make informed decisions regarding battery design in the lab or control strategies for the field, it is critical to characterize the uncertainty in a model’s predictions. After providing an overview of lithium-ion battery degradation, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning models for health diagnostics and prognostics. Details of the various methods, their advantages, and limitations are discussed in detail with a primary focus on probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification. Last, future trends and opportunities for research and development are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Ponderomotive Effects of Narrow-band, Superconducting Resonators in Open and Closed Loop

In this work, we present measurements of ponderomotive instabilities in narrow-band, coaxial resonators in open and closed control loop systems. We show an analytical scheme we will use in future studies to examine the dependency of open loop stability on mechanical parameters. Analytical and simulation models are used to predict the onset of the oscillatory instability in half wave resonators with active disturbance rejection control for amplitude and phase stabilization. We demonstrate that for high amplitude controller bandwidths, ponderomotive oscillations can couple with the controller frequency response via higher harmonics and lower the threshold for the oscillatory instability. We reaffirm the superiority of in-phase/quadrature $(I/Q)$ component control in regards to preventing the oscillatory instability, and show how the phase controller can amplify the crosstalk of disturbances in amplitude and phase control. In cases with large disturbances, this effect can lead to instabilities not present in $I/Q$ control.

Brown, Jacob [Michigan State U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2025

Operator learning for energy-efficient building ventilation control with computational fluid dynamics simulation of a real-world classroom

Energy-efficient ventilation control plays an important role in reducing building energy consumption while ensuring occupant health and comfort. While Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations provide detailed and physically accurate representations of indoor airflow, their high computational cost limits their use in real-time building control. In this work, we present a neural operator learning framework that combines the physical accuracy of CFD with the computational efficiency of machine learning to enable building ventilation control with the high-fidelity fluid dynamics models. Our method jointly optimizes the airflow supply rates and vent angles to reduce energy use and adhere to air quality constraints. We train an ensemble of neural operator transformer models to learn the mapping from building control actions to airflow fields using high-resolution CFD data. This learned neural operator is then embedded in an optimization-based control framework for building ventilation control. Experimental results show that our approach achieves significant energy savings compared to maximum airflow rate control, rule-based control, as well as data-driven control methods using spatially averaged CO 2 prediction and deep learning–based reduced-order models, while consistently maintaining safe indoor air quality. These results highlight the practicality and scalability of our method in maintaining energy efficiency and indoor air quality in real-world buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrinsic kinetics of water-inhibited ultra-lean methane oxidation over PtPd-Mg/ θ -Al 2 O 3 catalyst

Here, this study develops intrinsic methane oxidation kinetics for ultra-lean methane conditions in the presence of water over a highly active and stable PtPd–Mg/θ-Al 2 O 3 catalyst. Comprehensive laboratory experiments were conducted over a wide range of methane concentrations (150–1200 ppm CH 4 ), water contents (1–5% H 2 O), and industrially relevant space velocities (80,000 ≤ GHSV ≤ 160,000 h -1 ). These systematic experiments informed a two-dimensional, axisymmetric, multiscale reactor model that was used to develop and validate methane oxidation kinetics under practically relevant conditions, including non-isothermal operation and high conversion regimes. Combined experimental and modeling results revealed significant intraparticle diffusion resistance and transport-induced reaction exotherm at elevated temperatures, which limited catalyst utilization despite high intrinsic activity. These transport effects were explicitly incorporated into the reactor model, enabling accurate estimation of intrinsic kinetic parameters without reliance on conventional effectiveness-factor corrections. The resulting kinetic model successfully captured both kinetically controlled and mass-transfer-limited regimes and reliably predicted CH 4 conversion across broad ranges of temperature, methane concentration, and water content

Heat and mass transfer limitations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning for In-Spill Optimization of the Mu2e Resonant Extraction: Compensating Non-Stationarity

We present design considerations and challenges for the fast machine learning component of a third-order resonant beam extraction regulation system being commissioned to deliver steady beam rates to the mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Dedicated quadrupoles drive the tune toward the 29/3 resonance each spill, extracting beam at kV multiwire septa. The overall Spill Regulation System consists of (1) a “slow” process using ~100-spill averages to adjust the base quad ramp infrequently, (2) a feedforward harmonic content compensator, and (3) the “fast” ML agent reacting during each ongoing spill with on-the-fly additive corrections to the sum of (1) and (2). We have demonstrated improved beam-rate steadying for a fast ML agent compared to a PID controller using a quasi-physical spill simulation, and demonstrated distillation of that simulation into a predictive surrogate model. Current work includes a data-and-training pipeline to generate data-aware surrogates with real-world dynamics, even as the dynamics shift unpredictably. The surrogates are to act as RL environments against which to train our fast ML control agents before deploying them on FPGA in the live system. Further current efforts focus on modeling and controlling beam loss around the storage ring, understanding additional available hardware inputs to the model, and the interplay of these with beam-steadying performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low latency optical-based mode tracking with machine learning deployed on FPGAs on a tokamak

Active feedback control in magnetic confinement fusion devices is desirable to mitigate plasma instabilities and enable robust operation. Optical high-speed cameras provide a powerful, non-invasive diagnostic and can be suitable for these applications. Here, in this study, we process high-speed camera data, at rates exceeding 100 kfps, on in situ field-programmable gate array (FPGA) hardware to track magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode evolution and generate control signals in real time. Our system utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) model, which predicts the n = 1 MHD mode amplitude and phase using camera images with better accuracy than other tested non-deep-learning-based methods. By implementing this model directly within the standard FPGA readout hardware of the high-speed camera diagnostic, our mode tracking system achieves a total trigger-to-output latency of 17.6 μs and a throughput of up to 120 kfps. This study at the High Beta Tokamak-Extended Pulse (HBT-EP) experiment demonstrates an FPGA-based high-speed camera data acquisition and processing system, enabling application in real-time machine-learning-based tokamak diagnostic and control as well as potential applications in other scientific domains.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cryogenic thermal modeling of microwave high density signaling

Superconducting quantum computers require microwave control lines running from room temperature to the mixing chamber of a dilution refrigerator. Adding more lines without preliminary thermal modeling to make predictions risks overwhelming the cooling power at each thermal stage. In this paper, we investigate the thermal load of SC-086/50-SCN-CN semi-rigid coaxial cable, which is commonly used for the control and readout lines of a superconducting quantum computer, as we increase the number of lines to a quantum processor. We investigate the makeup of the coaxial cables, verify the materials and dimensions, and experimentally measure the total thermal conductivity of a single cable as a function of the temperature from cryogenic to room temperature values. We also measure the cryogenic DC electrical resistance of the inner conductor as a function of temperature, allowing for the calculation of active thermal loads due to Ohmic heating. Fitting this data produces a numerical thermal conductivity function used to calculate the static heat loads due to thermal transfer within the wires resulting from a temperature gradient. The resistivity data is used to calculate active heat loads, and we use these fits in a cryogenic model of a superconducting quantum processor in a typical Bluefors XLD1000-SL dilution refrigerator, investigating how the thermal load increases with processor sizes ranging from 100 to 225 qubits. We conclude that the theoretical upper limit of the described architecture is approximately 200 qubits. However, including an engineering margin in the cooling power and the available space for microwave readout circuitry at the mixing chamber, the practical limit is approximately 140 qubits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Modeling Archive

The dataset is a model output used in a study that examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing hillslope-scale coupled surface and sub-surface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems. The dataset contain ecosys model outputs used in a study: Article Title - Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. It includes the data files (ten *.csv files) used in creating figures in the publication and three *.pdf files (user guide and two Supplementary Information documents).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput and data-driven search for stable optoelectronic AMSe 3 materials

The rapid advancement in emerging optoelectronic technologies demands highly efficient, affordable, and ecofriendly materials. In this context, ternary chalcogenides, especially ternary selenides, show early promise as a material class due to their stability and remarkable electronic, optical, and transport properties. In this work, we integrate first-principles-based high-throughput computations with machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the thermodynamic stability and optoelectronic properties of 920 valency-satisfied selenide compounds. Through investigating polymorphism, our study reveals the edge-sharing orthorhombic Pnma phase (NH 4 CdCl 3 -type) as the most stable structure for most ternary selenides. High-fidelity supervised ML models are trained and tested to accelerate stability and band gap predictions. These data-driven models pin down the most influential features that dominantly control key material characteristics. The multistep high-throughput computations identify the ternary selenides with optimal direct band gaps, light carrier masses, and strong optical absorption edges. The extensive materials screening considering phase stability, toxicity, and defect tolerance, finally identifies the seven most suitable candidates for photovoltaic applications. Two of these final compounds, SrZrSe 3 and SrHfSe 3 , have already been synthesized in a single-phase form, with the latter showing an optically suitable band gap, aligning well with our findings. The non-adiabatic molecular dynamics reveal sufficiently long photoexcited charge carrier lifetimes (on the order of nanoseconds) in some of these selected selenide materials, indicating their exciting characteristics. Overall, our study suggests a robust in silico framework that can be extended to screen large datasets of various material classes for identifying promising photoactive candidates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flavor as an Incomplete Structure: Conceptual Questions and the Role of DUNE

Flavor remains one of the most successful yet least understood structures of the Standard Model. The discovery of the Higgs boson completed the electroweak account of mass generation, but did not explain the origin of fermion families, mass hierarchies, or mixing patterns. In this sense, flavor can be regarded as an empirically successful but conceptually incomplete structure. Neutrinos occupy a particularly sensitive place within this problem: their masses are tiny, their mixing is large, and their mass-generation mechanism may differ from that of charged fermions. In this article, we discuss flavor as an open conceptual problem and argue that DUNE, as a phased program spanning precision oscillation measurements and sensitivity to BSM and dark-sector phenomena, provides a powerful framework for testing the self-consistency and possible limits of the present three-flavor description. In particular, the complementarity between the long-baseline program and the Phase I near-detector complex, together with the DUNE-PRISM strategy for controlling interaction-model systematics and enabling data-driven near-to-far predictions, makes DUNE especially well-suited to search for small, correlated departures from the minimal flavor framework.

Montanari, Claudio S. [Fermilab; INFN, Pavia] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope for energy and peak-demand reduction

Buildings consume large amounts of energy for heating and cooling, while peak electricity demand places significant stress on the power grid. This paper presents a reduced-order co-simulation framework and load-oriented supervisory control strategy for a geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope with a ground loop (TABE+GL). In TABE+GL, a hydronic loop embedded in the building envelope is directly coupled with a geothermal ground loop, allowing for bidirectional heat exchange between the envelope, the ground, and the indoor environment. A hybrid co-simulation framework was established by coupling a reduced-order resistor–capacitor (RC) thermal network model with EnergyPlus augmented with GHEDesigner modules. The RC model generated feasible heat flux options under three operating modes, and EnergyPlus predicted sensible loads, energy use, and pump energy demand. At each simulation step, a supervisory control algorithm selected the optimal loop configuration and duty factor that maximizes useful TABE geothermal utilization without exceeding the predicted sensible load, thereby avoiding overheating or cooling. Case studies were conducted for Los Angeles, California, Charleston, South Carolina, and Denver, Colorado. Results showed that the proposed framework reduced HVAC electricity consumption by 43%–67%, natural gas use for space heating by 11%–38%, and peak electricity demand by 43%–88%. These results highlight the potential of combining reduced-order envelope modeling, direct geothermal coupling, and load-oriented supervisory control to improve whole building energy performance and reduce peak demand across diverse weather conditions.

Howard, Daniel [Southern Adventist University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗