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2018-2019 Mid-Term Credibility Plan Review

This presentation summarizes the Interagency Modeling and Analysis Group (IMAG) / Multiscale Modeling (MSM)'s Committee on Credible Practice in Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare's (CPMS) mid-term review of each MSM U01 project's progress toward fulfilling their Model Credibility plan. Generally, the model credibility reporting and update process utilized several pieces of information formatted to communicate to the uninformed reviewer/user an assessment of steps taken toward model credibility with respect to the intended use of each U01 model, as well as communicate where the more interested reviewer/user can go to find more information. The reviewers, consisting of the members of the CPMS Executive Committee, focused on the documentation and communication of each PI's credibility efforts and did not perform an assessment of the implemented credible practice given the evolving nature of the projects. In this inaugural activity, the CPMS members sought insight on how PIs may view the importance of communicating credibility, as well as how PIs interpret establishing evidence for credibility within the scope of CPMS Tens simple rules. To that end, reviewers provided feedback on documentation and communication adequacy, and, only in few rare cases, on the credible practice itself.

Myers, Jerry

Multiscale Analysis of Structurally-Graded Microstructures Using Molecular Dynamics, Discrete Dislocation Dynamics and Continuum Crystal Plasticity

A multiscale modeling methodology is developed for structurally-graded material microstructures. Molecular dynamic (MD) simulations are performed at the nanoscale to determine fundamental failure mechanisms and quantify material constitutive parameters. These parameters are used to calibrate material processes at the mesoscale using discrete dislocation dynamics (DD). Different grain boundary interactions with dislocations are analyzed using DD to predict grain-size dependent stress-strain behavior. These relationships are mapped into crystal plasticity (CP) parameters to develop a computationally efficient finite element-based DD/CP model for continuum-level simulations and complete the multiscale analysis by predicting the behavior of macroscopic physical specimens. The present analysis is focused on simulating the behavior of a graded microstructure in which grain sizes are on the order of nanometers in the exterior region and transition to larger, multi-micron size in the interior domain. This microstructural configuration has been shown to offer improved mechanical properties over homogeneous coarse-grained materials by increasing yield stress while maintaining ductility. Various mesoscopic polycrystal models of structurally-graded microstructures are generated, analyzed and used as a benchmark for comparison between multiscale DD/CP model and DD predictions. A final series of simulations utilize the DD/CP analysis method exclusively to study macroscopic models that cannot be analyzed by MD or DD methods alone due to the model size.

Saether, Erik

Multiscale Cloud System Modeling

The central theme of this paper is to describe how cloud system resolving models (CRMs) of grid spacing approximately 1 km have been applied to various important problems in atmospheric science across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and how these applications relate to other modeling approaches. A long-standing problem concerns the representation of organized precipitating convective cloud systems in weather and climate models. Since CRMs resolve the mesoscale to large scales of motion (i.e., 10 km to global) they explicitly address the cloud system problem. By explicitly representing organized convection, CRMs bypass restrictive assumptions associated with convective parameterization such as the scale gap between cumulus and large-scale motion. Dynamical models provide insight into the physical mechanisms involved with scale interaction and convective organization. Multiscale CRMs simulate convective cloud systems in computational domains up to global and have been applied in place of contemporary convective parameterizations in global models. Multiscale CRMs pose a new challenge for model validation, which is met in an integrated approach involving CRMs, operational prediction systems, observational measurements, and dynamical models in a new international project: the Year of Tropical Convection, which has an emphasis on organized tropical convection and its global effects.

Tao, Wei-Kuo

Revisiting of Multiscale Static Analysis of Notched Laminates Using the Generalized Method of Cells

Composite material systems generally exhibit a range of behavior on different length scales (from constituent level to macro); therefore, a multiscale framework is beneficial for the design and engineering of these material systems. The complex nature of the observed composite failure during experiments suggests the need for a three-dimensional (3D) multiscale model to attain a reliable prediction. However, the size of a multiscale three-dimensional finite element model can become prohibitively large and computationally costly. Two-dimensional (2D) models are preferred due to computational efficiency, especially if many different configurations have to be analyzed for an in-depth damage tolerance and durability design study. In this study, various 2D and 3D multiscale analyses will be employed to conduct a detailed investigation into the tensile failure of a given multidirectional, notched carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminate. Threedimensional finite element analysis is typically considered more accurate than a 2D finite element model, as compared with experiments. Nevertheless, in the absence of adequate mesh refinement, large differences may be observed between a 2D and 3D analysis, especially for a shear-dominated layup. This observed difference has not been widely addressed in previous literature and is the main focus of this paper.

Materials Engineering

Geometric Requirements for Modeling Polycrystalline Representative Volume Elements Using the Generalized Method of Cells

To accurately predict the mechanical response of advanced metallic parts, the grain structure of the metal must be considered and coupled to the macroscale in a multiscale model. The size of the microscale representative volume element must be sufficiently large, and the grid used to discretize the microscale must be adequately refined, in order to ensure an accurate and converged solution. The generalized method of cells is used to predict the mechanical properties of polycrystalline representative volume elements of copper containing randomly oriented grains with the properties of a single face-centered-cubic crystal. Moreover, the results of a parametric study are used to conclude the geometric requirements for an objective microscale model, with respect to the elastic stiffness.

Multiscale Modeling

A MPET 2 -mPBPK model for subcutaneous injection of biotherapeutics with different molecular weights: From local scale to whole-body scale

Subcutaneous injection of biotherapeutics has attracted considerable attention in the pharmaceutical industry. However, there is limited understanding of the mechanisms underlying the absorption of drugs with different molecular weights and the delivery of drugs from the injection site to the targeted tissue. Here, we propose the MPET 2 -mPBPK model to address this issue. This multiscale model couples the MPET 2 model, which describes subcutaneous injection at the local tissue scale from a biomechanical view, with a post-injection absorption model at injection site and a minimal physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) model at whole-body scale. Utilizing the principles of tissue biomechanics and fluid dynamics, the local MPET 2 model provides solutions that account for tissue deformation and drug absorption in local blood vessels and initial lymphatic vessels during injection. Additionally, we introduce a model accounting for the molecular weight effect on the absorption by blood vessels, and a nonlinear model accounting for the absorption in lymphatic vessels. The post-injection model predicts drug absorption in local blood vessels and initial lymphatic vessels, which are integrated into the whole-body mPBPK model to describe the pharmacokinetic behaviors of the absorbed drug in the circulatory and lymphatic system. We establish a numerical model which links the biomechanical process of subcutaneous injection at local tissue scale and the pharmacokinetic behaviors of injected biotherapeutics at whole-body scale. With the help of the model, we propose an explicit relationship between the reflection coefficient and the molecular weight and predict the bioavalibility of biotherapeutics with varying molecular weights via subcutaneous injection. The considered drug absorption mechanisms enable us to study the differences in local drug absorption and whole-body drug distribution with varying molecular weights. This model enhances the understanding of drug absorption mechanisms and transport routes in the circulatory system for drugs of different molecular weights, and holds the potential to facilitate the application of computational modeling to drug formulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

A Technique for Mapping Characteristic Lengths to Preserve Energy Dissipated via Strain Softening in a Multiscale Analysis

It is often advantageous to account for the microstructure of the material directly using multiscale modeling. For computational tractability, an idealized repeating unit cell (RUC) is used to capture all of the pertinent features of the microstructure. Typically, the RUC is dimensionless and depends only on the relative volume fractions of the different phases in the material. This works well for non-linear and inelastic behavior exhibiting a positive-definite constitutive response. Although, once the material exhibits strain softening, or localization, a mesh objective failure theories, such as smeared fracture theories, nodal and element enrichment theories (XFEM), cohesive elements or virtual crack closure technique (VCCT), can be utilized at the microscale, but the dimensions of the RUC must then be defined. One major challenge in multiscale progressive damage modeling is relating the characteristic lengths across the scales in order to preserve the energy that is dissipated via localization at the microscale. If there is no effort to relate the size of the macroscale element to the microscale RUC, then the energy that is dissipated will remain mesh dependent at the macroscale, even if it is regularized at the microscale. Here, a technique for mapping characteristic lengths across the scales is proposed. The RUC will be modeled using the generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics theory, and local failure in the matrix constituent subcells will be modeled using the crack band theory. The subcell characteristic lengths used in the crack band calculations will be mapped to the macroscale finite element in order to regularize the local energy in a manner consistent with the global length scale. Examples will be provided with and without the regularization, and they will be compared to a baseline case where the size and shape of the element and RUC are coincident (ensuring energy is preserved across the scales).

softening

The Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool: an Enabling Platform for Achieving Vision 2040

Vision 2040 is a community-driven consensus document, written in 2018, aimed at defining the potential 25-year future state required for performing integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems for future aerospace and aeronautical applications. Nine Vision Key Elements (KEs) were defined along with associated technical gaps. This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). This paper will specifically focus on NASMAT’s ability to address gaps in three of the nine Vision 2040 KEs: 1) Models and Methods, 2) Multiscale Measurements and Characterization Tools and Methods, and 6) Data, Informatics, and Visualization. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials. NASMAT offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. NASMAT can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. The paper will include a recent application of NASMAT to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed in on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate NASMAT’s ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on developing multiscale data visualization tools will also be addressed along with the challenges associated with and proposed solutions for sifting through large amounts of data. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Vision 2040

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional singlecolumn models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from Merent geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloudscale model (termed a super-parameterization or multiscale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameteridon NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production nms will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Tao, Wei-Kuo

On the Evaluation of Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Models at Coastal/Orographic Sites

Sea-salt aerosol global models are typically evaluated against concentration observations at coastal stations that are unaffected by local surf conditions and thus considered representative of open ocean conditions. Despite recent improvements in sea-salt source functions, studies still show significant model errors in specific regions. Using a multiscale model, we investigated the effect of high model resolution (0.1deg x 0.1deg vs. 1deg x 1.4deg) upon sea-salt patterns in four stations from the University of Miami Network: Baring Head, Chatam Island, and Invercargill in New Zealand, and Marion Island in the sub-antarctic Indian Ocean. Normalized biases improved from +63.7% to +3.3% and correlation increased from 0.52 to 0.84. The representation of sea/land interfaces, mesoscale circulations, and precipitation with the higher resolution model played a major role in the simulation of annual concentration trends. Our results recommend caution when comparing or constraining global models using surface concentration observations from coastal stations.

sea-salt aerosol

Unravelling the radiation-induced redox chemistry of plutonium ions in aqueous solution

Plutonium plays a critical role in nuclear fuel cycle technologies, but our understanding of its fundamental radiation-induced redox chemistry is limited. Changes in oxidation states affect the speciation and transport of plutonium ions in solution. For example, solvent extraction techniques used to separate and recover plutonium from used nuclear fuel rely on the selective formation, maintenance, and complexation of specific plutonium oxidation states. However, radiolytically generated radicals, ions, and molecules can drive the oxidation state distribution of plutonium ions far from equilibrium, ultimately changing the physical and chemical properties of the bulk system. These radiation-induced processes are inevitable due to the ionizing radiation fields generated by the radioactive decay of plutonium and its daughter nuclides. Therefore, mechanistically understanding how plutonium's various oxidation states respond to ionizing radiation is essential for predicting its behavior in solution. Here, we present significant advances in our understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry by using time-resolved (electron pulse) and dose accumulation (alpha and gamma) irradiation techniques, along with quantitative multiscale modeling methods.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA

Documentation, assessment, and improvements of fission gas modeling capabilities in BISON

Fission gas behavior critically affects nuclear fuel performance, influencing thermal conductivity, microstructure, swelling, and fuel-cladding interactions. The Simple Integrated Fission Gas Release and Swelling (Sifgrs) model, implemented within the BISON fuel performance code, provides advanced capabilities for modeling these phenomena. This manuscript reviews and assesses Sifgrs’ modular structure and submodels describing intragranular, intergranular, and release mechanisms. The modular implementation enables rapid improvements as our understanding advances and new fuel forms emerge. After an overview of capabilities, we present a comprehensive validation suite, comparing predictions to experimental data from tests under normal and transient conditions, including reproduction of the Vitanza curve. Results demonstrate Sifgrs’ accuracy, robustness, and applicability. Current limitations and ongoing efforts are discussed, including mechanistic, multiscale modeling, uncertainty quantification, and validation within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, supporting the safe and efficient use of nuclear fuels.

BISON

Radiation-Induced Plutonium Redox Chemistry

Plutonium plays a key role in global actinide research and nuclear fuel cycle technologies, and yet, our fundamental understanding of its inherent radiation-induced chemical behavior is limited. These radiation-induced processes cannot simply be switched off, as they are as fundamentally inherent to plutonium as the impact of relativistic effects on its f-electrons. In less chemically complex actinide systems, such as aqueous solutions of neptunium and americium, , radiolysis products play a significant role in the redox cycling of their oxidation states. However, plutonium's multiple, coexisting, and chemically active oxidation states, which comprise of bare ions and dioxo cations, provide additional redox pathways that complicate radiation-induced processes. Oxidation state control is critical for the manipulation of plutonium, especially in used nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies, where oxidation specific states are successfully extracted, and others rejected. Consequently, mechanistically understanding the behavior of plutonium’s multiple oxidation states in the presence of intense ionizing radiation fields is essential for predicting the behavior of this element under multiple conditions that support the development and innovation of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Here, we present recent advances in our understanding of plutonium radiation chemistry, including the first-ever multiscale model for predicting gamma radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry, and new chemical kinetics for the reaction of plutonium and its complexes of tributyl phosphate (TBP), N,N-di-(2-ethylhexyl)butyramide (DEHBA), and N,N-di-(2-ethylhexyl)isobutyramide (DEHiBA) with transients radiolysis products, a measured using electron pulse radiolysis.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA

Software Architecture and Hierarchy of the Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool

The NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) serves as a state-of-the-art, “plug and play,” software package which utilizes multiscale recursive micromechanics as a platform for massively multiscale modeling for hierarchical materials and structures subjected to thermomechanical loads on high performance computing systems. This paper is intended to give an overview of the design of NASMAT and how the design supports modularity, upgradability and maintainability, interoperability, and utility. First, the software architecture and hierarchy will be explored. Details on each of the 11 NASMAT procedures and the arrangement of NASMAT data will be presented. Finally, application program interfaces (APIs) that were developed to facilitate the communication of NASMAT with other programs will be described.

multiscale modeling

Rapid Design of Cost-Effective Refractory High Entropy Alloys Strengthened by Precipitation

Funded by the ARPA-E ULTIMATE program, this project aims to develop cost-effective refractory high entropy alloys (RHEAs) for gas turbine blades applications at 1300 degree Celsius and above. The alloy design focuses on carbides precipitation strengthening in a strong and ductile solid solution BCC matrix. The goal is to achieve balanced mechanical properties including room temperature ductility & fracture toughness and high temperature strength and creep resistance, while maintaining comparable oxidation resistance and densities to Ni-base superalloys. To accelerate alloy design, multiscale modeling including CALPHAD and first-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations and machine learning are performed. Specifically, high throughput phase diagram calculations and screening are carried out using CALPHAD; DFT calculations are performed to predict intrinsic ductility, grain boundary strengthening potential, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and temperature-dependent elastic constants. Temperature dependent yield stress, creep strain and CTE are also predicted using machine learning. Down-selected alloys are synthesized in small buttons of about 250g using arc melting for rapid evaluation on microstructure and mechanical properties before employing plasma arc melting and additive manufacturing for producing large ingots. Preliminary computational and experimental results of this project will be presented and future direction in RHEA development will be discussed.

high temperature materials

MATEY: multiscale adaptive transformer models for spatiotemporal physical systems

Accurate representation of the multiscale features in spatiotemporal physical systems using vision transformer architectures requires extremely long, computationally prohibitive token sequences. To address this issue, we propose two novel adaptive tokenization schemes that dynamically adjust patch sizes based on local features: one ensures convergent behavior to uniform patch refinement, while the other offers better computational efficiency. Moreover, we present a set of spatiotemporal attention schemes, where the temporal or axial spatial dimensions are decoupled, to evaluate their baseline computational and data efficiencies and to determine whether adaptive tokenization can improve this performance. We assess the performance of the proposed multiscale adaptive model, MATEY, in a sequence of experiments. Compared to a full spatiotemporal attention scheme or a scheme that decouples only the temporal dimension, we find that fully decoupled axial attention is less efficient and expressive, requiring more training time and model parameters to achieve the same accuracy. The experiments on the adaptive tokenization schemes show that, compared to a uniformly refined model, the proposed schemes achieve comparable or improved accuracy at a much lower cost in the tested two-dimensional settings. While the asymptotic analysis suggests the potential for favorable scaling, empirical validation at substantially longer sequence lengths remains to be performed in future work. Finally, we demonstrate in two fine-tuning tasks featuring different physics that models pretrained on PDEBench data outperform the ones trained from scratch, especially in the low data regime with frozen attention.

adaptive tokenization