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NASA NTRS1981

Evidence for wavelike anomalies with short meridional and large zonal scales in the lower stratospheric temperature field

Global microwave brightness temperature measurements are analyzed to investigate the range of meridional wavelengths 2000-3000 km where spectral studies reveal larger than expected variance. The data, from the TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit, are sensitive to lower stratospheric temperatures (30-150 mb). The results reveal striking temperature anomalies with short meridional wavelengths (2000-3000 km) and long zonal wavelengths (zonal wavenumbers 1-4). The anomalies, with amplitudes approximately 1-2 K, extend from the equatorial region to at least as high as 70 deg N and 70 deg S during January 1979. The features exhibit slow eastward movement or else are nearly stationary for several days. In the Northern Hemisphere, comparison with NMC data reveals that the strongest features tend to be associated with major jet streams.

Stanford, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Cabin ozone and tropopause definition

A method to estimate ozone profiles is based on knowing the total ozone which may come from any observational system available such as Dobson photometers that are available from NMC forecasts and used operationally in flight planning. From this an ozone profile at selected pressure levels is obtained. The technique was based on five years of ozonesonde data. So far, models have been developed for winter, spring, and fall.

Belmont, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Numerical prediction of the Mid-Atlantic states cyclone of 18-19 February 1979

A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLAS model, and to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the cyclogenesis. The GLAS model correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. Repeated without surface heat and moisture fluxes, the model failed to predict any cyclone development. An extended range forecast, a forecast from the NMC analysis interpolated to the GLAS grid, and a forecast from the GLAS analysis with the surface moisture flux excluded predicted weak coastal low development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper level divergence in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Influence of surface-albedo in subtropical regions on July circulation

A simulation study to examine the influence of surface-albedo on July circulation in subtropical regions is presented. The results are based on two 47-day integrations. In the first integration, called the control run, surface albedos were normally prescribed, whereas in the second integration, called the anomaly run, the surface albedo was modified in four regions: the Sahel in Africa, the Great Plains in the United States, the Thar Desert border in the Indian subcontinent, and Brazil in South America. Each run was started from observed initial conditions for June 15, 1979 based on NMC analysis. The surface albedo in each of the regions was arbitrarily made 30%.

Sud, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A further study of spectral energetics in the winter atmosphere

The contributions of standing (time-mean) and transient (time-departure) waves to the atmospheric spectral energetics are analyzed using the NMC (National Meteorological Center) data of winter 1976-1977. It is found that the standing long waves are responsible for the major horizontal sensible heat transport and also for the significant horizontal momentum transport. Furthermore, the major contents of eddy available energy and eddy kinetic energy of standing waves are in the long-wave regime. However, the spectral energetics analysis indicates that the standing long waves are energetically less efficient than the transient long and short waves. It is suggested that the lower efficiency of the standing long waves in the atmospheric energetics may be one of the physical factors causing the underforecast of the standing long waves in the numerical weather prediction models.

Chen, T.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The Contribution of Wide Range of Space and Time Scales to the Northward Flux of Westerly Momentum

The contribution of a wide range of time scales to the long time average of atmospheric variances and covariances, and in particular on the contribution of the annual cycle is discussed. The interannual variability of seasonally averaged fluxes is analyzed in the same context. For definiteness, numerical results will be shown for the eddy momentum flux at 200 mb as obtained from seven years of NMC analyses (March 8, 1970 - March 10, 1977). The role of the seasonal cycle is considered.

Straus, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Spectral study of wintertime kinetic energy of the Northern Hemisphere in the troposphere

Characteristics of the kinetic energy of wind fields at various pressure levels were analyzed, and significant wavenumbers in the wavenumber-frequency domain were identified. The nonlinear interaction terms of the kinetic energy equation were examined, and the distribution of the kinetic energy at the 850 mb, 500 mb, and 200 mb levels was calculated. A 5 deg latitude-longitude square grid was used, with NMC data for the 1975-1976 winter in the 20-60 deg N at 500 mb and 20-85 deg N for the 200 mb and 850 mb levels. The kinetic energy distribution was determined to be geography-dependent, with wavenumbers 6-9 westerly waves in the midfrequency range contributing significantly to kinetic energy maxima over the North Pacific and the east coast of North America. The contribution of the nonlinear interactions of these waves, which correspond to the longitudinal convergence of the kinetic energy flux, was found to be larger than the meridional convergence of the kinetic energy flux, and to occur mainly between 30-50 deg N. The nonlinear interactions were a negative contribution over the North Pacific at the 200 mb level.

Lee, H. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of soundings, analyses and model forecasts derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellite data

TIROS-N and NOAA-6 temperature soundings over North America during three days in January 1980, and synoptic analyses and numerical-model forecasts derived from them, are compared with conventional data and analyses from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). The collocated sounding comparison revealed significant errors, especially near the surface and the tropopause. Satellite-derived thermal gradients were found to be weak, and thickness-analysis difference fields to propagate eastward, suggesting that sounding errors are correlated with synoptic patterns. The same pattern of anomalies is seen in the model forecasts. More detailed determinations of the correlation detected here could be used to optimize the assimilation of satellite soundings to conventional data.

Koehler, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Ozone variations observed during the International Ozone Rocket Sonde Intercomparison

The International Ozone Rocket Sonde Intercomparison (IORI) conducted at Wallops Island during October 1979 provided a unique opportunity to observe ozone variations in great detail from several observing systems. The measurement period lasted 15 days during which time ozone observations were taken by ground-based, balloon, rocket, and satellite instruments. These data provided a unique opportunity for diagnosing regional stratospheric variability over a 2 week period. Examination of NMC analyses indicated that during this period the stratospheric polar vortex moved southeastward bringing air form high latitudes to Wallops Island above 10 mb. A concurrent change was observed in the upper stratosphere ozone fields observed by Nimbus-7 SBUV and in the ozone vertical distribution measured by the rocket soundings. In this study the satellite and rocket measurements are compared. The agreement is good, certainly within the errors of the measurements.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Simulation studies of proposed observing systems and their impact on numerical weather prediction

A series of realistic simulation studies is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observation systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. A special objective of this project is to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies.

Atlas, R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Observing system simulation experiments related to space-borne Lidar wind profiling. Part 1: Forecast impacts of highly idealized observing systems

Simulation experiments comparing the relative importance of an idealized LIDAR wind profiling system with idealized temperature and pressure sounding systems on 12 h forecasts are studied for three "nature' fields representing the true evolving atmospheric states. The three fields are obtained respectively from: (1) a long integration of the GLAS 4th Order Model (4 deg lat x 5 deg lon x 9 levels), (2) a continuous sequence of NMC operational analysis and, (3) a long integration of the ECMWF high resolution (1.875 deg 1 lat x 1.875 deg lon x 15 layers) operational forecast model. These fields are interpolated to the grid of the GLAS model and used for simulating the observed global analysed fields of winds, temperature, moisture and surface pressure. The same interpolated fields are also used for verification of forecast impact. The effects of clouds, aerosol concentrations, and instrument accuracies on the simulated observation will be discussed.

Halem, M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

FGGE data impact studies in the Southern Hemisphere

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of the FGGE SOS on the GLAS analyses and forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere, and to evaluate the relative importance of its components, and in particular, the impact of the loss of surface buoys. This discussion is limited to the forecast impact of the FGGE system upon a region between 28 deg S and 56 deg S, 50 deg W-80 W which includes essentially the southern cone of South America. Although forecast skill is verified against the NMC analysis, which used only VTPR but no TIROS-N data in the Southern Hemisphere, enough conventional data exists over this region to avoid biased verifications.

Kalnay, E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

SASS wind forecast impact studies using the GLAS and NEPRF systems: Preliminary conclusions

For this project, a version of the GLAS Analysis/Forecast System was developed that includes an objective dealiasing scheme as an integral part of the analysis cycle. With this system the (100 sq km) binned SASS wind data generated by S. Peteherych of AER, Canada corresponding of the period 0000 GMT 7 September 1978 to 1200 GMT 13 September 1978 was objectively dealiased. The dealiased wind fields have been requested and received by JPL, NMC and the British Meteorological Office. The first 3.5 days of objectively dealiased fields were subjectively enhanced on the McIDAS system. Approximately 20% of the wind directions were modified, and of these, about 70% were changed by less than 90 deg. Two SASS forecast impact studies, were performed using the dealiased fields, with the GLAS and the NEPRF (Navy Environmental Prediction Research Facility) analysis/forecast systems.

Kalnay, E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Druyan, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Interplanetary magnetic field and tropospheric circulation

The relation between interplanetary magnetic sector boundary crossings and areas of high vorticity in the troposphere that was reported during 1963-1973 cannot be investigated in the years after 1973 because of changes in the processing of the 500 mb height grids prepared by the National Meteorological Center. In particular, we cannot say that the effect disappeared. The same applies to vorticity computed from NMC winds grids. The Limited Area Fine Mesh grid has a large noise in computed vorticity after December 3, 1974. Therefore the interesting analysis of Larsen and Kelley cannot be extended. They had found that forecasts of Vorticity Area Index were significantly poorer after a sector boundary. Previously announced in STAR as N83-25251

Wilcox, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Stratospheric ozone changes during the first year of SBUV observations

Synoptic analyses of solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data have been performed on a daily basis for the first year of Nimbus 7 operation, November 1978 through October 1979, at the standard pressure levels: 30, 10, 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 mbar. By combining these data with the daily NMC meteorological analyses of temperature and geostrophic wind at the same levels, elements of the ozone-temperature relationship as well as the horizontal eddy transports are examined. In particular, the existence of an upper stratospheric high-latitude ozone minimum in winter is discussed, and the eddy fluxes are found to play a significant role in this feature, mainly associated with stratospheric warming pulses. At the same time, monthly average quantities are examined, and standing eddy components are related.

Nagatani, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

FGGE forecast impact studies in the Southern Hemisphere

Kalnay, E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of Optimum Interpolation and Cressman Analyses

The objective of this investigation is to develop a state-of-the-art optimum interpolation (O/I) objective analysis procedure for use in numerical weather prediction studies. A three-dimensional multivariate O/I analysis scheme has been developed. Some characteristics of the GLAS O/I compared with those of the NMC and ECMWF systems are summarized. Some recent enhancements of the GLAS scheme include a univariate analysis of water vapor mixing ratio, a geographically dependent model prediction error correlation function and a multivariate oceanic surface analysis.

Baker, W. E.↗