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DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multirange Vehicle Speed Prediction With Application to Model Predictive Control-Based Integrated Power and Thermal Management of Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Abstract Connectivity and automated driving technologies have opened up new research directions in the energy management of vehicles which exploit look-ahead preview and enhance the situational awareness. Despite this advancement, the vehicle speed preview that can be obtained from vehicle-to-vehicle/infrastructure (V2V/I) communications is often limited to a relatively short time-horizon. The vehicular energy systems, specifically those of the electrified vehicles, consist of multiple interacting power and thermal subsystems that respond over different time-scales. Consequently, their optimal energy management can greatly benefit from long-term speed prediction beyond that available through V2V/I communications. Accurately extending the look-ahead preview, on the other hand, is fundamentally challenging due to the dynamic nature of the traffic environment. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven multirange vehicle speed prediction strategy for arterial corridors with signalized intersections, providing the vehicle speed preview for three different ranges, i.e., short-, medium-, and long-range. The short-range preview is obtained by V2V/I communications. The medium-range preview is realized using a neural network (NN), while the long-range preview is predicted based on a Bayesian network (BN). The predictions are updated in real-time based on the current state of traffic and incorporated into a multihorizon model predictive control (MH-MPC) for integrated power and thermal management (iPTM) of connected vehicles. The results of design and evaluation of the performance of the proposed data-informed MH-MPC for iPTM of connected hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) using traffic data for real-world city driving are reported.

Automation & Control Systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Workshop on Ultra-Precision Control for Ultra-Efficient Devices (Workshop Report)

On April 21–23, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) within the office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) held the second in a series of workshops on different topics related to semiconductor research and development (R&D) to increase energy efficiency. This workshop focused on ultra-energy-efficient devices and the ultra-precision manufacturing (UPM) processes and next-generation control and metrology technologies needed to manufacture these devices. In addition to the industry needs and RDD&D opportunities, AMO’s new goal on greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction was addressed. The output of this workshop will inform AMO’s future R&D portfolio investments; provide perspectives on trends, drivers, and challenges for ultra-energy-efficient devices and enabling technologies; and help the stakeholder community understand the opportunities on the horizon.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sand-Based Thermal Storage for Building Heating Applications: A District Energy Case Study

Buildings account for 40% of global energy consumption and contribute to 30% of global carbon emissions. As energy from renewable sources increases in availability and building designers push for increased electrification, thermal energy storage (TES) systems will play a crucial role in extending the usable time horizon of renewable energy. While water, molten salt, and phase change materials are typically used for building TES heating applications, silica-sand has emerged as an alternative medium for concentrated solar power applications due to its low cost, wide availability, and comparable system efficiency. This paper proposes a new silica-sand particle-based TES system for building heating applications. In this work, a novel steam plant for district heating applications is first designed to utilize silica-sand TES, which can be used for different district energy systems. To demonstrate the silica-sand TES plant performance, the design is modelled in Modelica based on a case study on the University of Colorado Boulder’s campus. The simulation results show that the sand TES plant is more costly to operate than a gas-boiler based plant due to the low cost of natural gas, while the site EUI and carbon intensity can be improved. This novel system shows initial promise as a low-carbon alternative to conventional natural gas steam boilers but will require further modelling and follow-up research to improve its energy efficiency. An eventual rise in natural gas prices, and reduction of electricity prices, could improve the economic viability of this system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Holomorphic waves of black hole microstructure

We obtain the largest families constructed to date of $$ \frac{1}{8} $$ 1 8 -BPS solutions of type IIB supergravity. They have the same charges and mass as supersymmetric D1-D5-P black holes, but they cap off smoothly with no horizon. Their construction relies on the structure of superstratum states, but allows the momentum wave to have an arbitrary shape. Each family is based on an arbitrary holomorphic function of one variable. More broadly, we show that the most general solution is described by two arbitrary holomorphic functions of three variables. After exhibiting several new families of such “holomorphic superstrata,” we reformulate the BPS backgrounds and equations in holomorphic form and show how this simplifies their structure. The holomorphic formulation is thus both a fundamental part of superstrata as well as an effective tool for their construction. In addition, we demonstrate that holomorphy provides a powerful tool in establishing the smoothness of our solutions without constraining the underlying functions. We also exhibit new families of solutions in which the momentum waves of the superstrata are highly localized at infinity but diffuse and spread into the infra-red limit in the core of the superstratum. Our work also leads to some results that can be tested within the dual CFT.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 IV: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman alpha forest

We present the measurement of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) from the Lyman-α(Lyα) forest of high-redshift quasars with the first-year dataset of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Our analysis uses over 420 000 Lyα forest spectra and their correlation with the spatial distribution of more than 700 000 quasars. An essential facet of this work is the development of a new analysis methodology on a blinded dataset. We conducted rigorous tests using synthetic data to ensure the reliability of our methodology and findings before unblinding. Additionally, we conducted multiple data splits to assess the consistency of the results and scrutinized various analysis approaches to confirm their robustness. For a given value of the sound horizon (r d ), we measure the expansion at z eff = 2.33 with 2% precision, H(z eff ) = (239.2 ± 4.8) (147.09 Mpc /r d ) km/s/Mpc. Similarly, we present a 2.4% measurement of the transverse comoving distance to the same redshift, DM(z eff ) = (5.84 ± 0.14) (r d /147.09 Mpc) Gpc. Together with other DESI BAO measurements at lower redshifts, these results are used in a companion paper to constrain cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geometric entropies and their Hamiltonian flows

In holographic theories, the Hubeny-Rangamani-Takayanagi (HRT) area operator plays a key role in our understanding of the emergence of semiclassical Einstein-Hilbert gravity. When higher derivative corrections are included, the role of the area is instead played by a more general functional known as the geometric entropy. It is thus of interest to understand the flow generated by the geometric entropy on the classical phase space. In particular, the fact that the associated flow in Einstein-Hilbert or Jackiw-Teitelboim (JT) gravity induces a relative boost between the left and right entanglement wedges is deeply related to the fact that gravitational dressing promotes the von Neumann algebra of local fields in each wedge to type II. This relative boost is known as a boundary-condition-preserving (BCP) kink-transformation. In a general theory of gravity (with arbitrary higher-derivative terms), it is straightforward to show that the flow continues to take the above geometric form when acting on a spacetime where the HRT surface is the bifurcation surface of a Killing horizon. However, the form of the flow on other spacetimes is less clear. In this paper, we use the manifestly-covariant Peierls bracket to explore such flows in two-dimensional theories of JT gravity coupled to matter fields with higher derivative interactions. The results no longer take a purely geometric form and, instead, demonstrate new features that should be expected of such flows in general higher derivative theories. We also show how to obtain the above flows using Poisson brackets.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pattern of perturbations from a coherent quantum inflationary horizon

It is proposed that if quantum states of space-time are coherent on null surfaces, holographic Planck-scale fluctuations of inflationary horizons dominate the formation of primordial scalar curvature perturbations. It is shown that the reduction of quantum states on nearly-spherical emergent horizon surfaces around each observer creates a distinctive pattern whose correlations in the angular domain differ from the standard quantum theory of inflation. Causal constraints are used in a semiclassical model to formulate candidate directional symmetries. It is suggested that this hypothesis could provide a physical explanation for several well known anomalies measured in CMB anisotropy. New exact symmetries are predicted, such as a vanishing temperature correlation function at 90 degrees angular separation, that can be tested with current data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the significantly enhanced (u,v) coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The integration of the 12−m Kitt Peak Telescope (USA) and NOEMA (France) stations into the array introduces two critical intermediate-length baselines to SMT (USA) and IRAM 30−m (Spain), providing sensitivity to emission structures at spatial scales of ∼250 μas and ∼2500 μas (∼ 0.02 pc and ∼ 0.02 pc). Without these new baselines, previous EHT observations of the source in 2017 and 2018 lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a “missing flux” of order ∼1 Jy is expected to reside. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases–robust against station-based gain calibration errors–and model the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian component offset from the compact ring emission at spatial separations > 100 μas. Our analysis revealed a Gaussian feature centered at (ΔRA ≈ 320 μ as, ΔDec. ≈ 60 μ as), projected separation of ≈ 5500 AU, with an estimated flux density of only ∼60 mJy, implying that most of the missing flux identified in previous EHT studies had to originate from different, larger scales. Brighter emission at the relevant spatial scales is firmly ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred position of the large-scale jet and is therefore physically consistent with the emission of the jet base. While our findings point to detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, the limited coverage provided by only two intermediate baselines limits our ability to robustly reconstruct its morphology. Consequently, we treated the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component with higher precision.

accretion, accretion disks↗

DOE OSTI2021

Higher-order topology induced by structural buckling

Abstract Higher-order topological insulator (HOTI) states, such as two-dimension (2D) HOTI featured with topologically protected corner modes at the intersection of two gapped crystalline boundaries, have attracted much recent interest. However, the physical mechanism underlying the formation of HOTI states is not fully understood, which has hindered our fundamental understanding and discovery of HOTI materials. Here we propose a mechanistic approach to induce higher-order topological phases via structural buckling of 2D topological crystalline insulators (TCIs). While in-plane mirror symmetry is broken by structural buckling, which destroys the TCI state, the combination of mirror and rotation symmetry is preserved in the buckled system, which gives rise to the HOTI state. We demonstrate that this approach is generally applicable to various 2D lattices with different symmetries and buckling patterns, opening a horizon of possible materials to realize 2D HOTIs. The HOTIs so generated are also shown to be robust against buckling height fluctuation and in-plane displacement. A concrete example is given for the buckled $\beta $-Sb monolayer from first-principles calculations. Our finding not only enriches our fundamental understanding of higher-order topology, but also opens a new route to discovering HOTI materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Readying for a Color-Mixed Future Luminous Efficacy on the Horizon

If history repeats itself, lighting 20 years from now will be substantially different than what it is today. Twenty years ago, LEDs were a novelty, not quite ready for use in architectural lighting systems. A little more than 20 years before that, rare-earth tri-phosphor T8 fluorescent lamps were beginning to replace broadband halophosphate T12 fluorescent lamps, which themselves became the predominant source of lumens in the United States around the middle of the last century. At each step in this evolution, new lighting metrics have been developed to address differences in performance, and they in turn guided technology development. For example, in the 1960s, it was CRI and CCT, and more recently it has been LM-79 and TM-30.

Royer, Michael P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Black hole complementarity and ER/EPR

In this paper, we demonstrate that wormholes must be entangled regardless of asymptotic boundary conditions. By assuming black hole complementarity, we argue that traversable wormholes instantiate entanglement-assisted quantum channels and that this entanglement must be present between the stretched horizons as an initial condition prior to traversability. In conclusion, this result demonstrates the forward direction of the ER/EPR conjectures.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Framework for Patient-Centered Pathways of Care for Radiopharmaceutical Therapy: An ASTRO Consensus Document

Radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT) is an area of projected growth and importance with several agents in clinical use, new agents in late-phase clinical trials, and many others under testing and development. This article proposes a framework for developing pathways of care that can be broadly applied to all RPTs, representing the current status of RPT. It suggests foundational elements for many pathways of care for patients with cancer and concludes with areas in active development and the future horizon for RPT treatment centers. Developing a framework for patient-centered pathways of care is a critical step in establishing RPT as standard therapy for patients with a diverse spectrum of cancers. This expected increase in RPT treatment options will affect a much larger population of patients with complex cancer. It will also require enhanced coordination and collaboration among appropriately qualified personnel with diverse expertise in image acquisition, image interpretation, quantitative imaging, dosimetry calculation, radiation quality assurance and safety as well as oncology care and RPT-induced sequelae and response assessment. The essential role of this evolving RPT care team within multidisciplinary oncology care is a cornerstone of this framework for a patient-centered pathway of care for RPT. Given the status of current RPT practice and the horizon for future applications, this patient-centered pathway of care guidance is timely and should help inform future clinical RPT practice paradigms. A task force was recruited from the Theranostic Working Group of the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) in May 2019 with equal representation from the nuclear medicine community. The task force expanded on a framework that was originally conceived by the Working Group for patient-centered care. This framework was developed to incorporate the strengths of both radiation oncologists and nuclear medicine physicians. The manuscript was then developed by the task force and posted on the ASTRO website for a 6-week public comment period ending in July 2020. Comments were adjudicated, and the draft was sent to external organizations for potential endorsement. This document was sent to the ASTRO Board of Directors in October 2020 for approval.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Metagenome-assembled genome distribution and key functionality highlight importance of aerobic metabolism in Svalbard permafrost

Permafrost underlies a large portion of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. It is proposed to be an extreme habitat and home for cold-adaptive microbial communities. Upon thaw permafrost is predicted to exacerbate increasing global temperature trend, where awakening microbes decompose millennia old carbon stocks. Yet our knowledge on composition, functional potential and variance of permafrost microbiome remains limited. In this study, we conducted a deep comparative metagenomic analysis through a 2 m permafrost core from Svalbard, Norway to determine key permafrost microbiome in this climate sensitive island ecosystem. To do so, we developed comparative metagenomics methods on metagenomic-assembled genomes (MAG). We found that community composition in Svalbard soil horizons shifted markedly with depth: the dominant phylum switched from Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria in top soils (active layer) to Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria in permafrost layers. Key metabolic potential propagated through permafrost depths revealed aerobic respiration and soil organic matter decomposition as key metabolic traits. We also found that Svalbard MAGs were enriched in genes involved in regulation of ammonium, sulfur and phosphate. Here, we provide a new perspective on how permafrost microbiome is shaped to acquire resources in competitive and limited resource conditions of deep Svalbard soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Memory-based parameterization with differentiable solver: Application to Lorenz ’96

Physical parameterizations (or closures) are used as representations of unresolved subgrid processes within weather and global climate models or coarse-scale turbulent models, whose resolutions are too coarse to resolve small-scale processes. These parameterizations are typically grounded on physically based, yet empirical, representations of the underlying small-scale processes. Machine learning-based parameterizations have recently been proposed as an alternative solution and have shown great promise to reduce uncertainties associated with the parameterization of small-scale processes. Yet, those approaches still show some important mismatches that are often attributed to the stochasticity of the considered process. This stochasticity can be due to coarse temporal resolution, unresolved variables, or simply to the inherent chaotic nature of the process. To address these issues, we propose a new type of parameterization (closure), which is built using memory-based neural networks, to account for the non-instantaneous response of the closure and to enhance its stability and prediction accuracy. We apply the proposed memory-based parameterization, with differentiable solver, to the Lorenz ’96 model in the presence of a coarse temporal resolution and show its capacity to predict skillful forecasts over a long time horizon of the resolved variables compared to instantaneous parameterizations. This approach paves the way for the use of memory-based parameterizations for closure problems.

Mathematics↗