Examining the Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange Using a Multiscale Atmospheric Modeling Approach.
Abstract not provided.
Wagman, Benjamin Moore↗
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A Bis(arenesulfonyl) Peroxide, an Ambient-Stable Oxidant, Is a Strong p-Dopant for Organic Semiconductors
Strong p-dopants are required to dope high-ionization energy organic semiconductors for a variety of potential applications, but strong, simple one-electron oxidants are typically sensitive to reduction by atmospheric moisture and thus challenging to store or handle. Here we show that bis(3,5-bis(trifluoromethyl)benzenesulfonyl) peroxide─a dimer formed by two highly oxidizing radicals─can function as a water-stable yet powerful oxidant, cleanly reacting with some organic semiconductors to form two radical cations and two 3,5-bis-(trifluoromethyl)benzenesulfonate anions, although in other cases sulfonylation reactions can also occur. Notably, this peroxide is capable of p-doping the high-ionization energy polymer poly[(9,9-dioctylfluorene-2,7-diyl)- alt -(benzo[2,1,3]thiadiazol-4,7-diyl)] (F8BT) to afford electrical conductivities of up to 0.03 S cm –1 , while its use with electron-rich poly(3,4-dialkoxythiophene-2,5-diyl) derivatives can afford values up to 100 S cm –1 . Quantum-chemical calculations reveal the peroxide oxidant behaves in a fashion mirroring that of relatively oxygen-stable, but highly reducing, n-dopants that have been developed based on dimers of organic radicals or organometallic sandwich compounds.
doping↗
Fermi-Based Kinetic Model for the Sabatier Reaction: Sabatier Principle and Beyond It
The CO 2 methanation reaction (aka the Sabatier reaction) is one of the important carbon utilization technologies to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, kinetic modeling of the Sabatier reaction proceeding via the CO route has been presented by considering weak and strong chemisorption concepts rooted in electronic theory. Based on the single-route mechanism of the Sabatier reaction, the dependence of the reaction rate on the position of the catalyst Fermi level with respect to the antibonding states of the reagent (CO 2 ) and the product (CH 4 ), is demonstrated with the classic Sabatier volcano-shape. Furthermore, the model was applied to explain experimental results of reaction rates for Ni- and Ru-based catalytic systems and to understand origin of enhancement of turnover frequencies established for dynamic catalysis.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium
Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.
Tejedor, E.↗
General relativistic pulsations of ultra-massive ZZ Ceti stars
ABSTRACT Ultra-massive white dwarf stars are currently being discovered at a considerable rate, thanks to surveys such as the Gaia space mission. These dense and compact stellar remnants likely play a major role in Type Ia supernova explosions. It is possible to probe the interiors of ultra-massive white dwarfs through asteroseismology. In the case of the most massive white dwarfs, general relativity could affect their structure and pulsations substantially. In this work, we present results of relativistic pulsation calculations employing relativistic ultra-massive ONe-core white dwarf models with hydrogen-rich atmospheres and masses ranging from 1.29 to $1.369 \ \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ with the aim of assessing the impact of general relativity on the adiabatic gravity (g)-mode period spectrum of very high mass ZZ Ceti stars. Employing the relativistic Cowling approximation for the pulsation analysis, we find that the critical buoyancy (Brunt–Väisälä) and acoustic (Lamb) frequencies are larger for the relativistic case, compared to the Newtonian case, due to the relativistic white dwarf models having smaller radii and higher gravities for a fixed stellar mass. In addition, the g-mode periods are shorter in the relativistic case than those in the Newtonian computations, with relative differences of up to ∼$50$ per cent for the highest mass models ($1.369 \ \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$) and for effective temperatures typical of the ZZ Ceti instability strip. Hence, the effects of general relativity on the structure, evolution, and pulsations of white dwarfs with masses larger than ∼$1.29 \ \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ cannot be ignored in the asteroseismological analysis of ultra-massive ZZ Ceti stars.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Topographic effects on reflected acoustic waves from the OSIRIS-REx reentry observed from stratospheric balloons
During long-distance sound propagation in planetary atmospheres, acoustic waves may reflect off the air/surface interface one or more times. For low sound frequencies and flat interfaces, the incident and reflected wave tend to be nearly identical. However, this may not be the case when the downgoing acoustic wave encounters topography. Here, we describe a set of direct and reflected acoustic signals recorded on free-flying balloons during the hypersonic entry of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule (SRC). In two of the three cases presented here, an impulsive reflected arrival similar in form to the direct sonic boom of the SRC is observed, followed by a diffuse coda. In contrast, one of the floating stations lacked an impulsive reflection entirely, with only the coda present. We use full waveform modeling to show how reflection in the presence of complex topography can explain coda seen in all three examples as well as the lack of impulsive arrival on the third. Our results indicate that the complex signals often observed in long range acoustic propagation could be due, in part, to interactions with topography during transmission.
Lees, Jonathan M. [University of North Carolina, C↗
Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill
The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over large portions of the central United States. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3–6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999–2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influences, especially those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, we discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Using Deep Learning to Develop a High Resolution Planetary Boundary Layer Model for Infrasound Propagation
Infrasound, with frequencies less than 20 Hz, is generated by both natural and anthropogenic sources. When one of these sources exerts a force on the atmosphere, infrasonic waves are generated. The propagation of these waves largely depends on temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Previous work has used deep learning to accurately predict atmospheric specifications to altitudes of ~40 km. However, this model breaks down for local distances because it is too low resolution. Here we use a high-resolution meteorological dataset collected in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA to develop a deep learning model that can predict temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Predictions are compared to ground truth observations to show that the model performs well at predicting temperature and wind direction but struggles with prediction wind speed. Model limitations and improvements are also discussed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Five Year Comparison of Mixing Height Determinations at the Savannah River Site
Air quality dispersion modeling is performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) to demonstrate compliance with applicable regulations. The AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) modeling system is an EPA recommended model for air quality applications with a data preprocessor (AERMET) to incorporate meteorological data collected on site. AERMET parameterizes or calculates meteorological variables that are not directly measured onsite. One of the parameters estimated by AERMET is the atmospheric mixing height. While the mixing height is not currently a measurement input into AERMET, SRS has the capability to measure the local mixing height. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) operates a Vaisala CL31 Lidar Ceilometer which estimates mixing height from aerosol backscatter. This study compares the parameterized mixing height from AERMET to the ceilometer estimated mixing height for the current regulatory period at SRS incorporating data from 2015-2019. Results from this study showed the average daily minimum values (morning) from AERMET were an order of magnitude lower than the commonly used Holzworth (1972) method and the ceilometer estimated mixing heights. Additionally, on average, the ceilometer exhibited a daily maximum mixing height value that occurred 1-3 hours later than the AERMET estimated maximum. This difference is likely due to the nighttime atmospheric mixing height assumptions and calculations used by AERMET. The AERMET algorithm cuts off mixing height growth at sunset while the ceilometer data show ongoing evening convection typical of the southeastern United States. These results suggest that the AERMET parametrization scheme assumptions may not be representative of a forested landscape and evening convection which could account for more mixing overnight. The results obtained in this study are significant for air dispersion modeling applications for regulatory purposes and worker safety. Mixing height can impact model estimated pollutant concentrations. A greater mixing height will provide more volume for pollutant dispersion. This report documents efforts to quantify the dependence of mixing height inputs toward a conservative estimated pollutant concentration.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Measurements of sound propagation in Mars' lower atmosphere
Acoustics has become extraterrestrial and Mars provides a new natural laboratory for testing sound propagation models compared to those ones on Earth. Owing to the unique combination of a microphone and two sound sources, the Ingenuity helicopter and the SuperCam laser-induced sparks, the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover payload enables the in situ characterization of unique sound propagation properties of the low-pressure CO 2 -dominated Mars atmosphere. In this study, we show that atmospheric turbulence is responsible for a large variability in the sound amplitudes from laser-induced sparks. This variability follows the diurnal pattern of turbulence. In addition, acoustic measurements acquired over one Martian year reveal a variation of the sound intensity by a factor of 1.8 from a constant source due to the seasonal cycle of pressure and temperature that significantly modifies the acoustic impedance and shock-wave formation. Finally, we show that the evolution of the Ingenuity tones and laser spark amplitudes with distance is consistent with one of the existing sound absorption models, which is a key parameter for numerical simulations applied to geophysical experiments on CO 2 -rich atmospheres. Overall, these results demonstrate the potential of sound propagation to interrogate the Mars environment and will therefore help in the design of future acoustic-based experiments for Mars or other planetary atmospheres such as Venus and Titan.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Emulating aerosol optics with randomly generated neural networks
Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have a substantial impact on climate and remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. Accurate representation of their direct radiative effects is a crucial component of modern climate models. However, direct computation of the radiative properties of aerosol populations is far too computationally expensive to perform in a climate model, so optical properties are typically approximated using a parameterization. This work develops artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of replacing the current aerosol optics parameterization used in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A large training dataset is generated by using Mie code to directly compute the optical properties of a range of atmospheric aerosol populations given a large variety of particle sizes, wavelengths, and refractive indices. Optimal neural architectures for shortwave and longwave bands are identified by evaluating ANNs with randomly generated wirings. Randomly generated deep ANNs are able to outperform conventional multilayer-perceptron-style architectures with comparable parameter counts. Finally, the ANN-based parameterization produces significantly more accurate bulk aerosol optical properties than the current parameterization when compared with direct Mie calculations using mean absolute error. The success of this approach makes possible the future inclusion of much more sophisticated representations of aerosol optics in climate models that cannot be captured by extension of the existing parameterization scheme and also demonstrates the potential of random-wiring-based neural architecture search in future applications in the Earth sciences.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Unimolecular Reactions of E -Glycolaldehyde Oxide and Its Reactions with One and Two Water Molecules
The kinetics of Criegee intermediates are important for atmospheric modeling. However, the quantitative kinetics of Criegee intermediates are still very limited, especially for those with hydroxy groups. Here, we calculate rate constants for the unimolecular reaction of E-glycolaldehyde oxide [E-hydroxyethanal oxide, E-(CH 2 OH)CHOO], for its reactions with H 2 O and (H 2 O) 2 , and for the reaction of the E-(CH 2 OH)CHOO…H 2 O complex with H 2 O. For the highest level of electronic structure, we use W3X-L//CCSD(T)-F12a/cc-pVDZ-F12 for the unimolecular reaction and the reaction with water and W3X-L//DF-CCSD(T)-F12b/jun-cc-pVDZ for the reaction with 2 water molecules. For the dynamics, we use a dual-level strategy that combines conventional transition state theory with the highest level of electronic structure and multistructural canonical variational transition state theory with small-curvature tunneling with a validated density functional for the electronic structure. This dynamical treatment includes high-frequency anharmonicity, torsional anharmonicity, recrossing effects, and tunneling. We find that the unimolecular reaction of E-(CH 2 OH)CHOO depends on both temperature and pressure. The calculated results show that E-(CH 2 OH)CHOO…H 2 O + H 2 O is the dominant entrance channel, while previous investigations only considered Criegee intermediates + (H 2 O) 2 . In addition, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of E-(CH 2 OH)CHOO with respect to 2 water molecules is particularly short with a value of 1.71 × 10 –6 s at 0 km, which is about 2 orders of magnitude shorter than those usually assumed for Criegee intermediate reactions with water dimer. We also find that the OH group in E-(CH 2 OH)CHOO enhances its reactivity.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
CO2 Capture Using Amines Bound to Silica
One of the main culprits of global warming is the increased amount of carbon dioxide, or CO2, in the atmosphere. NASA's global climate reports a 13% increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2000 to present. Adsorptive CO2 capture by nitrogen groups of amine-containing solvents is one of the most mature technologies deployed in petrochemical and natural gas processing plants to purify industrial gases. However, key challenges in widespread application include solvent induced reactor corrosion, amine degradation, and high regeneration energy for repeated cycling. An alternative approach is to immobilize amines on solid supports. Key performance metrics of solid amine-based CO2 adsorbents include the CO2 adsorption capacity and stability to degradation over hundreds of thousands of regeneration cycles. Our research aims to develop descriptors for CO2 capture capacity and stability against oxygen-induced degradation for amines bound to porous silica supports using experimental and computational techniques. We experimentally measure the change in CO2-uptake using solid amine adsorbents with varying chemical compositions and exposure to varying gas streams and use high-performance computers to simulate the nature and strength of CO2-adsorption and oxidative degradation reaction mechanisms. Insights from our work can facilitate the development of stable solid amine adsorbents for large-scale CO2 capture processes.
amines↗
Constraining Mornings and Evenings on Distant Worlds: A new Semianalytical Approach and Prospects with Transmission Spectroscopy
The technique of transmission spectroscopy—the variation of a planetary radius with wavelength due to opacity sources in the planet’s terminator region—has been one of the most successful in the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres to date, providing key insights into the composition and structure of these distant worlds. A common assumption made when using this technique, however, is that the variations are the same in the entire terminator region. In reality, the morning and evening terminators might have distinct temperature, pressure, and thus compositional profiles due to the inherent 3D nature of the planet, which would, in turn, give rise to different spectra on each side of it. Constraining those might be fundamental for our understanding of not only the weather patterns in these distant worlds but also the planetary formation signatures that might only be possible to extract once these features are well understood. Motivated by this physical picture, in this work, we perform a detailed study of the observational prospects of detecting this effect. We present an open-source semianalytical framework with which this information can be extracted directly from transit light curves and perform a detailed study of the prospects of detecting the effect with current missions, such as TESS, and upcoming ones, such as JWST. Our results show that these missions show great promise for the detection of this effect. Transmission spectroscopy studies with JWST, in particular, could provide spectra of each of the limbs, allowing us to convey 3D information previously accessible only via phase curves.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Interpreting and Stabilizing Machine-Learning Parametrizations of Convection
Neural networks are a promising technique for parameterizing subgrid-scale physics (e.g., moist atmospheric convection) in coarse-resolution climate models, but their lack of interpretability and reliability prevents widespread adoption. For instance, it is not fully understood why neural network parameterizations often cause dramatic instability when coupled to atmospheric fluid dynamics. This paper introduces tools for interpreting their behavior that are customized to the parameterization task. First, we assess the nonlinear sensitivity of a neural network to lower-tropospheric stability and the midtropospheric moisture, two widely studied controls of moist convection. Second, we couple the linearized response functions of these neural networks to simplified gravity wave dynamics, and analytically diagnose the corresponding phase speeds, growth rates, wavelengths, and spatial structures. To demonstrate their versatility, these techniques are tested on two sets of neural networks, one trained with a super-parameterized version of the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the second with a near-global cloud-resolving model (GCRM). Additionally, even though the SPCAM simulation has a warmer climate than the cloud-resolving model, both neural networks predict stronger heating/drying in moist and unstable environments, which is consistent with observations. Moreover, the spectral analysis can predict that instability occurs when GCMs are coupled to networks that support gravity waves that are unstable and have phase speeds larger than 5 m s -1 . In contrast, standing unstable modes do not cause catastrophic instability. Using these tools, differences between the SPCAM-trained versus GCRM-trained neural networks are analyzed, and strategies to incrementally improve both of their coupled online performance unveiled.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Targeted Chemical Looping Materials Discovery by an Inverse Design
Chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) materials is actively sought for combustion of carbonaceous materials to achieve complete conversion and capture of carbon dioxide. These materials may play a vital role in reducing atmospheric carbon via negative carbon output. However, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all approach as different operating conditions and feedstocks may require different CLOU materials. As a result, the exploration and discovery of high‐performance CLOU materials can be a slow process. To address this challenge, a high‐throughput inverse machine learning workflow that identifies optimum materials from perovskite oxides for a given set of targets is developed—temperature and Gibbs free energy of oxygen formation. The model is trained on high‐throughput density functional theory calculations of CLOU materials and inverts the materials design process using a genetic algorithm to produce realistic substituted SrFeO 3‐δ compositions as output. Using the inverse model, it is able to identify several interesting new families of CLOU materials: Sr 1‐ x A x Fe 1‐ y B y O 3‐δ (e.g., A = Ca or K; B = Mg, Bi, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, or Zn). These materials have shown promising properties, and some of them even outperform the benchmark material in terms of oxygen release kinetics under relevant CLOU operating conditions.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI
Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A database of global storm surge reconstructions
Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗