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This is a briefing to provide an overview of the contents of the Annex H of the Specific Operation Risk Assessment (SORA) document. This annex focuses on the application of UTM to SORA methodology.
An analysis is presented for the Congress of the relationships between an institutionalized assessment function and legislative information gathering and decisionmaking needs. The study was directed to the following topics: (1) the positing of a hypothetical technology assessment component for legislative support; (2) the posing of a number of questions relating to the operational context of this assessment component including the organization/operational framework, general operational problems, access to relevant information, and the utilization of assessment data and analyses; and (3) some selected comments relevant to the questions posed.
The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.
The Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program is developing a second-generation reusable launch vehicle. The program goals include lowering the risk of loss of crew to 1 in 10,000 and reducing annual operations cost to one third of the cost of the Space Shuttle. The SLI missions include NASA, military and commercial satellite launches and crew and cargo launches to the space station. The SLI operations analyses provide an assessment of the operational support and infrastructure needed to operate candidate system architectures. Measures of the operability are estimated (i.e. system dependability, responsiveness, and efficiency). Operations analysis is used to determine the impact of specific technologies on operations. A conceptual path to reducing annual operations costs by two thirds is based on key design characteristics, such as reusability, and improved processes lowering labor costs. New operations risks can be expected to emerge. They can be mitigated with effective risk management with careful identification, assignment, tracking, and closure. SLI design characteristics such as nearly full reusability, high reliability, advanced automation, and lowered maintenance and servicing coupled with improved processes are contributors to operability and large operating cost reductions.
Simplified Aircraft-based Parallel Approach (SAPA) is an advanced concept proposed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to support dependent parallel approach operations to runways with lateral spacing closer than 2500 ft. At the request of the FAA, NASA performed an initial assessment of the potential performance and feasibility of the SAPA concept, including developing and assessing an operational implementation of the concept and conducting a Monte Carlo wake simulation study to examine the longitudinal spacing requirements. The SAPA concept was shown to have significant operational advantages in supporting the pairing of aircraft with dissimilar final approach speeds. The wake simulation study showed that support for dissimilar final approach speeds could be significantly enhanced through the use of a two-phased altitudebased longitudinal positioning requirement, with larger longitudinal positioning allowed for higher altitudes out of ground effect and tighter longitudinal positioning defined for altitudes near and in ground effect. While this assessment is preliminary and there are a number of operational issues still to be examined, it has shown the basic SAPA concept to be technically and operationally feasible.
The Kennedy launch site capability for accommodating spacelab payload operations was assessed. Anomalies between facility accommodations and requirements for the Spacelab III (Strawman), OA Mission 83-2, Dedicated Life Sciences, and Combined Astronomy missions are noted. Recommendations for revision of the accommodations handbook are summarized.
For most of the history of space exploration, human and robotic programs have been independent, and have responded to distinct requirements. The NASA Vision for Space Exploration calls for the return of humans to the Moon, and the eventual human exploration of Mars; the complexity of this range of missions will require an unprecedented use of automation and robotics in support of human crews. The challenges of human Mars missions, including roundtrip communications time delays of 6 to 40 minutes, interplanetary transit times of many months, and the need to manage lifecycle costs, will require the evolution of a new mission operations paradigm far less dependent on real-time monitoring and response by an Earthbound operations team. Robotic systems and automation will augment human capability, increase human safety by providing means to perform many tasks without requiring immediate human presence, and enable the transfer of traditional mission control tasks from the ground to crews. Developing and validating the new paradigm and its associated infrastructure may place requirements on operations design for nearer-term lunar missions. The authors, representing both the human and robotic mission operations communities, assess human lunar and Mars mission challenges, and consider how human-robot operations may be integrated to enable efficient joint operations, with the eventual emergence of a unified exploration operations culture.
For most of the history of space exploration, human and robotic programs have been independent, and have responded to distinct requirements. The NASA Vision for Space Exploration calls for the return of humans to the Moon, and the eventual human exploration of Mars; the complexity of this range of missions will require an unprecedented use of automation and robotics in support of human crews. The challenges of human Mars missions, including roundtrip communications time delays of 6 to 40 minutes, interplanetary transit times of many months, and the need to manage lifecycle costs, will require the evolution of a new mission operations paradigm far less dependent on real-time monitoring and response by an Earthbound operations team. Robotic systems and automation will augment human capability, increase human safety by providing means to perform many tasks without requiring immediate human presence, and enable the transfer of traditional mission control tasks from the ground to crews. Developing and validating the new paradigm and its associated infrastructure may place requirements on operations design for nearer-term lunar missions. The authors, representing both the human and robotic mission operations communities, assess human lunar and Mars mission challenges, and consider how human-robot operations may be integrated to enable efficient joint operations, with the eventual emergence of a unified exploration operations culture.
For most of the history of space exploration, human and robotic programs have been independent, and have responded to distinct requirements. The NASA Vision for Space Exploration calls for the return of humans to the Moon, and the eventual human exploration of Mars; the complexity of this range of missions will require an unprecedented use of automation and robotics in support of human crews. The challenges of human Mars missions, including roundtrip communications time delays of 6 to 40 minutes, interplanetary transit times of many months, and the need to manage lifecycle costs, will require the evolution of a new mission operations paradigm far less dependent on real-time monitoring and response by an Earthbound operations team. Robotic systems and automation will augment human capability, increase human safety by providing means to perform many tasks without requiring immediate human presence, and enable the transfer of traditional mission control tasks from the ground to crews. Developing and validating the new paradigm and its associated infrastructure may place requirements on operations design for nearer-term lunar missions. The authors, representing both the human and robotic mission operations communities, assess human lunar and Mars mission challenges, and consider how human-robot operations may be integrated to enable efficient joint operations, with the eventual emergence of a unified exploration operations culture.
The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.
The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.
This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.
A conceptual vehicle design enabling fast outer solar system travel was produced predicated on a small aspect ratio spherical torus nuclear fusion reactor. Initial requirements were for a human mission to Saturn with a greater than 5% payload mass fraction and a one way trip time of less than one year. Analysis revealed that the vehicle could deliver a 108 mt crew habitat payload to Saturn rendezvous in 235 days, with an initial mass in low Earth orbit of 2,941 mt. Engineering conceptual design, analysis, and assessment was performed on all ma or systems including payload, central truss, nuclear reactor (including divertor and fuel injector), power conversion (including turbine, compressor, alternator, radiator, recuperator, and conditioning), magnetic nozzle, neutral beam injector, tankage, start/re-start reactor and battery, refrigeration, communications, reaction control, and in-space operations. Detailed assessment was done on reactor operations, including plasma characteristics, power balance, power utilization, and component design.
For conventional fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft a variety of modeling and simulation tools have been developed to provide designers the means to thoroughly investigate proposed designs and operational concepts. However, lighter-than-air (LTA) airships, hybrid air vehicles, and aerostats have some important aspects that are different from heavier-than-air (HTA) vehicles. In order to account for these differences, modifications are required to the standard design tools to fully characterize the LTA vehicle design and performance parameters.. To address these LTA design and operational factors, LTA development organizations have created unique proprietary modeling tools, often at their own expense. An expansion of this limited LTA tool set could be accomplished by leveraging existing modeling and simulation capabilities available in the National laboratories and public research centers. Development of an expanded set of publicly available LTA modeling and simulation tools for LTA developers would mitigate the reliance on proprietary LTA design tools in use today. A set of well researched, open source, high fidelity LTA design modeling and simulation tools would advance LTA vehicle development and also provide the analytical basis for accurate LTA operational cost assessments. This paper will present the modeling and analysis tool capabilities required for LTA vehicle design, analysis of operations, and full life-cycle support. A survey of the tools currently available will be assessed to identify the gaps between their capabilities and the LTA industry's needs. Options for development of new modeling and analysis capabilities to supplement contemporary tools will also be presented.
Management of aquatic weeds in complex watersheds and river systems present many challenges to assessment, planning and implementation of management practices for floating and submerged aquatic invasive plants. The Delta Region Areawide Aquatic Weed Project (DRAAWP), a USDA sponsored area-wide project, is working to enhance planning, decision-making and operational efficiency in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Satellite and airborne remote sensing are used map (area coverage and biomass density), direct operations, and assess management impacts on plant communities. Archived satellite records enable review of results following previous climate and management events and aide in developing long-term strategies. Examples of remote sensing aiding effectiveness of aquatic weed management will be discussed as well as areas for potential technological improvement. Modeling at local and watershed scales using the SWAT modeling tool provides insight into land-use effects on water quality (described by Zhang in same Symposium). Controlled environment growth studies have been conducted to quantify the growth response of invasive aquatic plants to water quality and other environmental factors. Environmental variability occurs across a range of time scales from long-term climate and seasonal trends to short-term water flow mediated variations. Response time for invasive species response are examined at time scales of weeks, day, and hours using a combination of study duration and growth assessment techniques to assess water quality, temperature (air and water), nitrogen, phosphorus, and light effects. These provide response parameters for plant growth models in response to the variation and interact with management and economic models associated with aquatic weed management. Plant growth models are to be informed by remote sensing and applied spatially across the Delta to balance location and type of aquatic plant, growth response to altered environments and phenology. Initial utilization of remote sensing tools developed for mapping of aquatic invasive plants improved operational efficiency in management practices. These assessment methods provide a comprehensive and quantitative view of aquatic invasive plants communities in the California Delta.
Management of aquatic weeds in complex watersheds and river systems present many challenges to assessment, planning and implementation of management practices for aquatic invasive plants. The Delta Region Areawide Aquatic Weed Project (DRAAWP), a USDA (U. S. Dept. of Agriculture)-sponsored area-wide project, is working to enhance planning, decision-making and operational efficiency of invasive plant management in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Satellite and airborne remote sensing are used to map area of plant coverage and estimate biomass density to aid operations and assess management impacts on plant communities. Modeling at local and watershed scales using the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling tool provides insight into land-use effects on water quality. Environmental variability in the Delta occurs across a range of time scales from long-term climate and seasonal trends to short-term water flow mediated variations. Controlled environment growth studies have been conducted to quantify the growth response of invasive aquatic plants to water quality and other environmental factors. Response time for invasive species response are examined at time scales of weeks, day, and hours using a combination of study duration and growth assessment techniques to assess water quality, temperature (air and water), and light effects. These provide response parameters for plant growth models in response to environmental variation and interact with management and economic models associated with aquatic weed management. Plant growth models are to be informed by remote sensing and applied spatially across the Delta to balance location and type of aquatic plant, growth response to altered environments and phenology. Initial utilization of remote sensing tools developed for mapping of aquatic invasive plants improved operational efficiency in management practices. These assessment methods provide a comprehensive and quantitative view of aquatic invasive plant communities in the California Delta.
This work assesses an adaptive approach to fault recovery in autonomous robotic space operations, which uses indicators of opportunity, such as physiological state measurements and observations of past human assistant performance, to inform future selections. We validated our reinforcement learning approach using data we collected from humans executing simulated mission scenarios. We present a method of structuring human-factors experiments that permits collection of relevant indicator of opportunity and assigned assistance task performance data, as well as evaluation of our adaptive approach, without requiring large numbers of test subjects. Application of our reinforcement learning algorithm to our experimental data shows that our adaptive assistant selection approach can achieve lower cumulative regret compared to existing non-adaptive baseline approaches when using real human data. Our work has applications beyond space robotics to any application where autonomy failures may occur that require external intervention.
The importance of planning the on-orbit operations inherent in the Space Station Freedom assembly sequence is discussed. Any solution to the assembly puzzle requires the simultaneous satisfaction of many diverse constraints, including: on-orbit assembly operations, NSTS (National Space Transportation System) payload bay constraints, NSTS performance capabilities, and provision of the requisite functionality for each on-orbit configuration. Because operations are in the critical path SSFP (Space Station Freedom Program) has chosen to carefully assess assembly operations as each launch manifest is developed and evaluated.