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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract The effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biogeochemical Equilibrium Responses to Maximal Productivity in High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll Regions

Whether ocean iron fertilization in high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions is a practical geoengineering strategy to combat climate warming has been debated because the fate of absorbed carbon by the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use an optimized oceanic biogeochemical inverse model to explore the equilibrium responses to increased productivity in major HNLC regions. We find that an overall downward shift of nutrients and carbon from the surface and intermediate to the deep waters with maximal productivity in the HNLC Southern Ocean (SO), North Pacific (NP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EP). The efficiency of soft tissue pump is increased by 37.8%, 2.7% and 5.4% in the SO, EP and NP simulation while atmospheric CO 2 concentration is drawn down by 45.1, 3.4 and 6.7 ppm, respectively. Meanwhile, global mean oxygen is decreased by 21.1%, 1.3% and 2.4% in the SO, EP and NP simulation, accompanied by an expansion of oxygen minimum zones by 400%, 26% and 63%, respectively. Our study indicates that iron fertilization has the potential to be an effective geoengineering approach to mitigate climate warming but also has a strong impact on the development of ocean hypoxia.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A 3-Year Sample of Almost 1,600 Elves Recorded Above South America by the Pierre Auger Cosmic-Ray Observatory

Elves are a class of transient luminous events, with a radial extent typically greater than 250 km, that occur in the lower ionosphere above strong electrical storms. We report the observation of 1,598 elves, from 2014 to 2016, recorded with unprecedented time resolution (100 ns) using the fluorescence detector (FD) of the Pierre Auger Cosmic-Ray Observatory. The Auger Observatory is located in the Mendoza province of Argentina with a viewing footprint for elve observations of 3∙10sup>6 km ₂, reaching areas above the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the Córdoba region, which is known for severe convective thunderstorms. Primarily designed for ultrahigh energy cosmic-ray observations, the Auger FD turns out to be very sensitive to the ultraviolet emission in elves. The detector features modified Schmidt optics with large apertures resulting in a field of view that spans the horizon, and year-round operation on dark nights with low moonlight background, when the local weather is favorable. The measured light profiles of 18% of the elve events have more than one peak, compatible with intracloud activity. Within the 3-year sample, 72% of the elves correlate with the far-field radiation measurements of the World Wide Lightning Location Network. The Auger Observatory plans to continue operations until at least 2025, including elve observations and analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this observatory is the only facility on Earth that measures elves with year-round operation and full horizon coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems

Abstract Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state‐of‐the‐art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

Abstract The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi‐model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA‐2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-campaign ship and aircraft observations of marine cloud condensation nuclei and droplet concentrations

In situ marine cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and CCN proxies, based on particle sizes and optical properties, are accumulated from seven field campaigns: ACTIVATE; NAAMES; CAMP 2 EX; ORACLES; SOCRATES; MARCUS; and CAPRICORN2. Each campaign involves aircraft measurements, ship-based measurements, or both. Measurements collected over the North and Central Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Southern Oceans, represent a range of clean to polluted conditions in various climate regimes. With the extensive range of environmental conditions sampled, this data collection is ideal for testing satellite remote detection methods of CDNC and CCN in marine environments. Remote measurement methods are vital to expanding the available data in these difficult-to-reach regions of the Earth and improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions. The data collection includes particle composition and continental tracers to identify potential contributing CCN sources. Several of these campaigns include High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and polarimetric imaging measurements and retrievals that will be the basis for the next generation of space-based remote sensors and, thus, can be utilized as satellite surrogates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Worldwide Population Genomics Reveal Long-Term Stability of the Mitochondrial Genome Architecture in a Keystone Marine Plant

Mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) of flowering plants are composed of multiple chromosomes. Recombination within and between the mitochondrial chromosomes may generate diverse DNA molecules termed isoforms. The isoform copy number and composition can be dynamic within and among individual plants due to uneven replication and homologous recombination. Nonetheless, despite their functional importance, the level of mitogenome conservation within species remains understudied. Whether the ontogenetic variation translates to evolution of mitogenome composition over generations is currently unknown. Here we show that the mitogenome composition of the seagrass Zostera marina is conserved among worldwide populations that diverged ca. 350,000 years ago. Using long-read sequencing, we characterized the Z. marina mitochondrial genome and inferred the repertoire of recombination-induced configurations. To characterize the mitochondrial genome architecture worldwide and study its evolution, we examined the mitogenome in Z. marina meristematic region sampled in 16 populations from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Our results reveal a striking similarity in the isoform relative copy number, indicating a high conservation of the mitogenome composition among distantly related populations and within the plant germline, despite a notable variability during individual ontogenesis. Our study supplies a link between observations of dynamic mitogenomes at the level of plant individuals and long-term mitochondrial evolution.

(sub)stoichiometric shifting↗

The Globally Coherent Pattern of Autumn Monsoon Precipitation

Over most tropical land areas, the annual peak in precipitation occurs during summer, associated with the local monsoon circulation. However, in some coastal regions in the tropics the bulk of annual precipitation occurs in autumn, after the low-level summer monsoon westerlies have abated. Examples include the Nordeste region of Brazil, southeastern India and Sri Lanka, and coastal Tanzania. Unlike equatorial regions, they receive little rainfall during local spring. Such regions are present along the eastern coasts of nearly all continents, suggesting that they comprise a coherent yet previously unrecognized global phenomenon. In this study, we identify eight tropical locations that experience an “autumn monsoon” and show that this unusual seasonal cycle is generated by similar mechanisms in all of these. When these regions receive their peak rainfall, they lie poleward of the ITCZ in easterly low-level winds. The spatial structure of precipitation in these regions can be explained by their placement to the east of mountain ranges that organize moist convection on their windward sides. However, orographic forcing alone cannot explain their unique seasonal cycle: despite similarities in wind direction, surface humidity, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between autumn and spring, these regions receive significantly more rainfall in autumn than in spring. Here, we show that this is due to differences in the large-scale atmospheric stability between the equinoctial seasons, which can be captured by a relative SST metric and is influenced by SSTs in the remote eastern upwelling zones of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaffolded and annotated nuclear and organelle genomes of the North American brown alga Saccharina latissima

Increasing the genomic resources of emerging aquaculture crop targets can expedite breeding processes as seen in molecular breeding advances in agriculture. High quality annotated reference genomes are essential to implement this relatively new molecular breeding scheme and benefit research areas such as population genetics, gene discovery, and gene mechanics by providing a tool for standard comparison. The brown macroalga Saccharina latissima (sugar kelp) is an ecologically and economically important kelp that is found in both the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Cultivation of Saccharina latissima for human consumption has increased significantly this century in both North America and Europe, and its single blade morphology allows for dense seeding practices used in the cultivation of its Asian sister species, Saccharina japonica. While Saccharina latissima has potential as a human food crop, insufficient information from genetic resources has limited molecular breeding in sugar kelp aquaculture. We present scaffolded and annotated Saccharina latissima nuclear and organelle genomes from a female gametophyte collected from Black Ledge, Groton, Connecticut. This Saccharina latissima genome compares well with other published kelp genomes and contains 218 scaffolds with a scaffold N50 of 1.35 Mb, a GC content of 49.84%, and 25,012 predicted genes. We also validated this genome by comparing the synteny and completeness of this Saccharina latissima genome to other kelp genomes. Our team has successfully performed initial genomic selection trials with sugar kelp using a draft version of this genome. This Saccharina latissima genome expands the genetic toolkit for the economically and ecologically important sugar kelp and will be a fundamental resource for future foundational science, breeding, and conservation efforts.

DeWeese, Kelly↗

Meteorological drivers of the low-cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty

The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks between transient and long-term simulations, and past work shows that is primarily attributed to changes in the marine low-cloud radiative feedback. Here we use low cloud meteorological kernels to map out both the primary cloud controlling factors through which changing surface temperature patterns drive changes in low-cloud feedback, as well as the sources of model spread. We find that the pattern effect is almost entirely driven by changes in estimated inversion strength (EIS) in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the South East Pacific and Southern Ocean. In both past and future simulations, inter-model spread is primarily caused by model differences in the sensitivity of low clouds to the environmental conditions, rather than differences in the simulated evolution of environmental conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Prokaryotic responses to a warm temperature anomaly in northeast subarctic Pacific waters

Recent studies on marine heat waves describe water temperature anomalies causing changes in food web structure, bloom dynamics, biodiversity loss, and increased plant and animal mortality. However, little information is available on how water temperature anomalies impact prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) inhabiting ocean waters. This is a nontrivial omission given their integral roles in driving major biogeochemical fluxes that influence ocean productivity and the climate system. Here we present a time-resolved study on the impact of a large-scale warm water surface anomaly in the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean, colloquially known as the Blob, on prokaryotic community compositions. Multivariate statistical analyses identified significant depth- and season-dependent trends that were accentuated during the Blob. Moreover, network and indicator analyses identified shifts in specific prokaryotic assemblages from typically particle-associated before the Blob to taxa considered free-living and chemoautotrophic during the Blob, with potential implications for primary production and organic carbon conversion and export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Tropical Indo-Pacific Intraseasonal Precipitation

Surface latent heat fluxes help maintain tropical intraseasonal precipitation. We develop a latent heat flux diagnostic that depicts how latent heat fluxes vary with the near-surface specific humidity vertical gradient (Δq) and surface wind speed (|V|). Compared to fluxes estimated from |V| and Δq measured at tropical moorings and the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment 3.0 (COARE3.0) algorithm, tropical latent heat fluxes in the National Center for Atmospheric Research CEMS2 and Department of Energy E3SMv1 models are significantly overestimated at |V| and Δq extrema. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) sensitivity to surface flux algorithm is tested with offline and inline flux corrections. The offline correction adjusts model output fluxes toward mooring-estimated fluxes; the inline correction replaces the original bulk flux algorithm with the COARE3.0 algorithm in atmosphere-only simulations of each model. Both corrections indicate reduced latent heat flux feedback to intraseasonal precipitation, in better agreement with observations, suggesting that model-simulated fluxes are overly supportive for maintaining MJO convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking large-scale circulation patterns to low-cloud properties

Abstract. The North Pacific High (NPH) is a fundamental meteorological feature present during the boreal warm season. Marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, which are persistent in this oceanic region, are influenced directly by the NPH. In this study, we combine 11 years of reanalysis and an unsupervised machine learning technique to examine the gamut of 850 hPa synoptic-scale circulation patterns. This approach reveals two distinguishable regimes – a dominant NPH setup and a land-falling cyclone – and in between a spectrum of large-scale patterns. We then use satellite retrievals to elucidate for the first time the explicit dependence of MBL cloud properties (namely cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water path, and shortwave cloud radiative effect – CRESW) on 850 hPa circulation patterns over the northeast Pacific Ocean. We find that CRESW spans from −146.8 to −115.5 W m−2, indicating that the range of observed MBL cloud properties must be accounted for in global and regional climate models. Our results demonstrate the value of combining reanalysis and satellite retrievals to help clarify the relationship between synoptic-scale dynamics and cloud physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

Periods of water surplus and deficit in Northern California follow a pronounced quasi-decadal cycle. This cycle is largely driven by the frequency of atmospheric rivers (ARs), affecting the region’s wet and dry periods. Our analyses demonstrate that the quasi-decadal cycle of AR frequency relies on moisture transport associated with the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low. In observations, the Aleutian Low is shown to covary with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. A modeling experiment, which incorporates ocean observations from the equatorial Pacific into the fully coupled climate model, provides support that the quasi-decadal cycle of the Aleutian Low is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, the tropical Pacific modulates the wet season moisture transport toward California on decadal time scales, affecting AR frequency. These results provide metrics for improving interannual-to-decadal prediction of AR activity, which drives hydrological cycles in Northern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ResDesign: Resilient by Design Platform for CPS Assessment and Validation

ResDesign project has developed integrated capabilities to help cyber physical system modelers and analysts to evaluate vulnerabilities and resilience of such systems using co-simulation-based attack testbed, graph-based visualization and monitoring tool, and Bayesian optimization-based co-design capability. The project demonstrates a collection of attack scenarios and use cases in an integrated software environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗