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DOE OSTI2024

Blueprints for Training Information Bottlenecks for Collider Analyses

Dimensionality reduction is a crucial aspect of data analysis in high energy physics, even if accompanied by information loss. Several methods, including histogram- and kernel-based analyses, are only computationally feasible for low-dimensional data. Furthermore, simulation models used in HEP can often only be validated for low-dimensional data. We provide several blueprints for using machine learning to create low-dimensional data representations (continuous event variables and discrete classification labels) for use in signal discovery and parameter estimation tasks. We also describe how to design the learned representation to facilitate a) searches with unknown model parameters and b) validation of simulation models in data control regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

How deep is your soil? Quantifying and spatially analyzing understudied deep soil in the United States

Deep soil is largely understudied and important in understanding biogeochemical processes in soil. Here, understudied soil is defined as the difference between soil studied to a known depth and the estimated bedrock depth. To understand more about deep soil, the understudied soil in the US was quantified and spatially analyzed using soil survey data and model estimates of bedrock depth. An equation was derived to find understudied soil using the dataset parameters “max lower depth studied”, “depth to bedrock”, and “likelihood of bedrock in the top 200 cm”. The survey data and bedrock model revealed that soil has been studied to an average depth of 1-2 meters, and the average depth to bedrock is 20 meters. Soil data density in the soil surveys was greatest in the West Coast, Midwest, and areas historically managed for agricultural, while the non-contiguous US and interior West were underrepresented. The soil had been studied deeper than the estimated soil depth in 455 out of 56,889 observation points concentrated in Alaska, California, Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. To understand the diversity and any taxonomic bias of the global soil data available, soil order was compared to US-based National Resource Conservation Service percentages and it was found that Oxisols, Alfisols, Ultisols, Andisols, and Histosols were overrepresented while Gelisols, Aridisols, Vertisols, Entisols, and Spodosols are underrepresented. Soil depth is important in exploring the complexity of biogeochemical processes that take place in soil.

Bedrock↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Parameter Estimator for Engineering Systems

This software model generates vehicle parameter sets for downstream modeling applications using real-world data. Value to users is provided through improvements to modeling activities as a result of decreases in time taken during model development and validation. Currently configured for transportation modeling activities, the software provides initial estimates for multiple fundamental vehicle parameters including mass, coefficient of drag, and tire rolling resistance using real-world drive and duty cycle information as inputs.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty quantification in ToxCast high throughput screening

High throughput screening (HTS) projects like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s ToxCast program are required to address the large and rapidly increasing number of chemicals for which we have little to no toxicity measurements. Concentration-response parameters such as potency and efficacy are extracted from HTS data using nonlinear regression, and models and analyses built from these parameters are used to predict in vivo and in vitro toxicity of thousands of chemicals. How these predictions are impacted by uncertainties that stem from parameter estimation and propagated through the models and analyses has not been well explored. While data size and complexity makes uncertainty quantification computationally expensive for HTS datasets, continued advancements in computational resources have allowed these computational challenges to be met. This study uses nonparametric bootstrap resampling to calculate uncertainties in concentration-response parameters from a variety of HTS assays. Using the ToxCast estrogen receptor model for bioactivity as a case study, we highlight how these uncertainties can be propagated through models to quantify the uncertainty in model outputs. Uncertainty quantification in model outputs is used to identify potential false positives and false negatives and to determine the distribution of model values around semi-arbitrary activity cutoffs, increasing confidence in model predictions. At the individual chemical-assay level, curves with high variability are flagged for manual inspection or retesting, focusing subject-matter-expert time on results that need further input. This work improves the confidence of predictions made using HTS data, increasing the ability to use this data in risk assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Community Data Mining Approach for Surface Complexation Database Development

This paper presents a comprehensive data-to-model workflow, including a findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable (FAIR) community sorption database (newly developed LLNL Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange (L-SCIE) database) along with a data fitting workflow to efficiently optimize surface complexation reaction constants with multiple surface complexation model (SCM) constructs. This workflow serves as a universal framework to mine, compile, and analyze large numbers of published sorption data as well as to estimate reaction constants for parameterizing reactive transport models. Here the framework includes (1) data digitization from published papers, (2) data unification including unit conversions, and (3) data-model integration and reaction constant estimation using geochemical software PHREEQC coupled with the universal parameter estimation code PEST. We demonstrate our approach using an analysis of U(VI) sorption to quartz based on a first L-SCIE implementation, concluding that a multisite SCM construct with carbonate surface species yielded the best fit to community data. Surface complexation reaction constants extracted from this approach captured all available sorption data available in the literature and provided insight into previously published reaction constants and surface complexation model constructs. The L-SCIE sorption database presented herein allows for automating this approach across a wide range of metals and minerals and implementing novel machine learning approaches to reactive transport in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probabalistic Modeling of Minibangs and Megabands (Final Report)

This project was original proposed as a fundamental advance in the treatment of probabilistic modeling as it applies to nuclear fission calculations of nuclear database inputs and produced particle distributions in heavy-ion collisions. However, funding decisions made within LLNL and the DOE Office of Science led to the project proceeding through three distinct stages. The first two, probabilistic calculations of the fission and jet energy loss relate follow directly from the proposed research. The fission task led to the development of a proof-of-principle Gaussian Process Emulator for time-dependent generator coordinate method (TDGCM) calculation for the fission of Pu-240. To study energy loss in heavy-ion collisions with a probabilistic model, we generated a training data set using the Pythia event generator superimposed on a heavy-ion background with a single quench-factor parameter. We then used kernel density estimation (KDE) to recover the distribution of quench-factors for a calibration data set. In the third stage, we proceeded to work through collaborations, collecting new data within the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and further developing bayesian methodology within the Jet Energy-loss Tomography with a Statistically and Computationally Advanced Program Envelope (JETSCAPE) Collaboration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Skewing the CMB×LSS: a fast method for bispectrum analysis

Upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements and tomographic galaxy surveys are expected to provide us with high-precision data sets in the coming years, thus paving the way for fruitful cross-correlation analyses. Here, in this paper we study the information content of the weighted skew-spectrum, a nearly-optimal estimator of the angular bispectrum amplitude, as a means to extract non-Gaussian information on both bias and cosmological parameters from the bispectra of galaxies cross-correlated with CMB lensing, while gaining significantly on speed. Our results show that for the combination of the Planck satellite and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), the difference in the constraints on bias and cosmological parameters from the skew-spectrum and the bispectrum is at most 17%. We further compare and find agreement between our theoretical skew-spectra and those estimated from N-body simulations, for which it is important to include gravitational non-linearities beyond perturbation theory and the post-Born effect for CMB lensing. We define an algorithm to apply the skew-spectrum estimator to the data and, as a preliminary step, we use the skew-spectra to constrain bias parameters and the amplitude of shot noise from the simulations through a Markov chain Monte Carlo likelihood analysis, finding that it may be possible to reach percent-level estimates for the linear bias parameter b 1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Continuous and discrete modeling of HIV-1 decline on therapy

Mathematical models have shed light on the dynamics of HIV- 1 infection in vivo. In this paper, we generalize continuous mathematical models of drug therapy for HIV-1 by Perelson et al. (Science 271:1582–1586, 1996) and Perelson and Nelson (SIAM Rev 41:3–44, 1999) on time scales, i.e., a nonempty closed subset of real numbers in order to derive new discrete models that predict the total concentration of plasma virus as a function of time. Here, one of our main goals is to compare discrete mathematical models with the continuous model in Perelson et al. (1996) where HIV infected patients were given protease inhibitors and sampled frequently thereafter. For the comparison, we use experimental data collected in Perelson et al. (1996) and estimate the parameters such as the virion clearance rate and the rate of loss of infected cells by fitting the total concentration of plasma virus to this data set. Our results show that discrete systems describe the best fit. In the previous models of this study, the efficacy of protease inhibitor is assumed to be perfect. Motivated by Perelson and Nelson (1999), we end the paper with a mathematical model of imperfect protease inhibitor and reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitor combination therapy of HIV-1 infection on time scales with its stability analysis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Film condensation with high heat fluxes and scaled experiments using pure steam for reactor containment cooling

Condensation tests were performed using a newly developed test facility for scaling the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) to a small modular reactor (SMR). The PCCS of the SMR plays a pivotal role in ensuring greater safety, reliability, and compactness than what is afforded by traditional reactors. Therefore, a well-designed PCCS is essential to SMRs. However, previous studies and test data were unsuitable for scaling, due to high variation in the test geometry and operating conditions. This study intends to close this research gap by using a novel designed scaled test facility consisting of vertical condensing test sections featuring 1-, 2-, and 4-inch-diameter condensing tubes with annular water cooling, and by applying superheated and saturated steam with different steam mass flow ranges of 5–25 g/s. Further, the primary test data, including axial temperatures, mass flow rates, and pressures, were used in conjunction with a standard data reduction method to estimate critical parameters such as heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients, and condensation rates. These scaled test data would support improving empirical correlations and validating condensation models to identify scaling distortion for SMR PCCSs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

LogPath: Log data based energy consumption analysis enabling electric vehicle path optimization

Vehicle navigation and path optimization require a more meticulous approach when it deals with EVs (electric vehicles) and SDVs (software-defined vehicles), due to lengthy charging times and the lack of charging infrastructure. Long-distance freight EV trucking needs path guidance with accurate energy consumption estimates to prevent charging-related failures. We developed a novel energy consumption estimation approach that only uses battery log data to extract major vehicle parameters to increase EV navigation accuracy without additional sensors. This is enabled by extracting multiple drive modes from the log data for analysis. The system provides 1) routes, 2) charge locations, 3) charging times, and 4) optimal vehicle speeds that guarantee the shortest travel time. Here we successfully validated the system using log data collected from an EV and Tesla's Supercharging map in the US and compared it with the commercially available navigation system, Tesla's trip planner, whose capabilities solely include charging time and routing.

EV (Electric vehicles) navigation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Spectral features and thermal resistance of 976-nm cw laser diodes with a power up to 15 W

The spectral characteristics of cw laser diodes with a maximum reliable power of 15 W mounted on F-mount heat sinks are studied. It is found that the spectrum envelopes have features at emission powers exceeding 5 – 7 W. A method for determining the maximum of a spectrum envelope under the conditions of its broadening and appearance of features is discussed. The thermal resistance of diodes is determined experimentally at pump currents from threshold to maximum (14 A) and is found to be 2.25 K W{sup -1} at a current of 10 A and 1.5 K W{sup -1} at a current of 4 A. The results obtained are compared with the literature data. The adequacy of using the thermal resistance parameter for comparing and estimating thermal characteristics of laser diodes is considered. (lasers)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation for incidence angle modifier models for photovoltaic modules

We present methods to estimate parameters for models for the incidence angle modifier for simulating irradiance on a photovoltaic array. The incidence angle modifier quantifies the fraction of direct irradiance that is reflected away at the array’s face, as a function of the direct irradiance’s angle of incidence. Parameters can be estimated from data and the fitting method can be used to convert between models. We show that the model conversion procedure results in models that produce similar annual insolation on a fixed plane.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

ldquants

1. Provide cleaned and filtered data stream from multiple ARM disdrometers; 2. Estimate commonly-used physical parameters of the Drop Size Distribution (DSD). 3. Calculate radar equivalent quantities such as the Radar Reflectivity Factor Z.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

vdisquants: Video Distrometer derived radar equivalent quantities. Retrievals from the VDIS instrument providing radar equivalent quantities, including dual polarization radar quantities (e.g., Z, Differential Reflectivity ZDR).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying shallow subsurface water and heat dynamics using coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical inversion

Improving our ability to estimate the parameters that control water and heat fluxes in the shallow subsurface is particularly important due to their strong control on recharge, evaporation and biogeochemical processes. The objectives of this study are to develop and test a new inversion scheme to simultaneously estimate subsurface hydrological, thermal and petrophysical parameters using hydrological, thermal and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. The inversion scheme – which is based on a nonisothermal, multiphase hydrological model – provides the desired subsurface property estimates in high spatiotemporal resolution. A particularly novel aspect of the inversion scheme is the explicit incorporation of the dependence of the subsurface electrical resistivity on both moisture and temperature. The scheme was applied to synthetic case studies, as well as to real datasets that were autonomously collected at a biogeochemical field study site in Rifle, Colorado. At the Rifle site, the coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical inversion approach well predicted the matric potential, temperature and apparent resistivity with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency criterion greater than 0.92. Synthetic studies found that neglecting the subsurface temperature variability, and its effect on the electrical resistivity in the hydrogeophysical inversion, may lead to an incorrect estimation of the hydrological parameters. The approach is expected to be especially useful for the increasing number of studies that are taking advantage of autonomously collected ERT and soil measurements to explore complex terrestrial system dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

PEES (Parameter Estimator for Engineering Systems) [SWR-16-38]

Miller, Eric↗