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At least 181 records · Page 10

Crop diversification improves water-use efficiency and regional water sustainability

As global water scarcity intensifies, identifying agricultural practices that enhance sustainable water management is critical. Temporal crop diversification-rotating multiple species over time-has been proposed to improve soil health and water retention based on field-scale experiments. However, widespread adoption remains limited on farms, in part due to unverified benefits at larger scales. Here, we assess the influence of crop diversification on agricultural water-use efficiency (WUE, ratio of gross primary productivity to evapotranspiration) along a spectrum of monoculture to complex species rotations in California. Leveraging new high-resolution remote sensing datasets, we show that crop diversification is a key driver of agricultural WUE, and increasing the number of species planted in the previous 6 years from two to four increases WUE by ∼20% after accounting for differences between crops. Our results provide spatially explicit, large-scale quantification of crop diversification’s improvements to WUE, with direct implications for climate adaptation. More broadly, our framework offers a tool to evaluate other sustainable practices and guide policy and farm-scale decision-making.

climate-resilient agriculture↗

Policy for Robust Space-based Earth Science, Technology and Applications

Satellite remote sensing technology has contributed to the transformation of multiple earth science domains, putting space observations at the forefront of innovation in earth science. With new satellite missions being launched every year, new types of earth science data are being incorporated into science models and decision-making systems in a broad array of organizations. Policy guidance can influence the degree to which user needs influence mission design and when, and ensure that satellite missions serve both the scientific and user communities without becoming unfocused and overly expensive. By considering the needs of the user community early on in the mission-design process, agencies can ensure that satellites meet the needs of multiple constituencies. This paper describes the mission development process in NASA and ESA and compares and contrasts the successes and challenges faced by these agencies as they try to balance science and applications within their missions.

Space-based↗

Introduction to our COSPAR-Sponsored Session: Space-Observation Contributions Supporting Climate Action

• The challenge for us at COSPAR in putting this program together was that we are primarily a scientifically oriented organization. “Climate Action,” as it is often expressed publicly, tends to be the domain of “activists.” As scientists, on the other hand, to retain our credibility – and for the contributions we make to continue carrying the weight of scientific truth – it is critical that we remain even-handed in our analysis and our reporting of results. • COSPAR is the Committee on Space Research, and fortunately, much of what we observe from space bears objectively on the attributes of the Earth System and how it is evolving. We can measure from space changes in the cryosphere, in the oceans, the land surface and the atmosphere, frequently, on a global scale, to a degree that is generally not possible any other way. And we have been making such observations, in increasing detail, scope, and precision, for about 60 years. • These data help us characterize the current state and identify patterns of change in the Earth System that allow us to infer processes and to improve climate models. With modeling we can test and refine our inferences, and make some predictions. The results can then inform policy and decision-makers, the public in general, as well as those taking direct action. • So, for today’s session we have invited 7 15-minute presentations spanning a broad range of climate-related topics, covering observations from space that can inform climate-related decision-making – from sea-ice extent and sea-level rise, to land surface properties and land-based water resources, to interactions between land or water surfaces and the atmosphere, to severe events in the atmosphere itself. • We begin with an overview of the observations contributed by one of the premier space agencies, given by NASA Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor Dr. Kate Calvin, which will be followed by talks on what we are learning about specific attributes of the Earth System from space-based measurements that can inform climate-related policy and action.

Ralph Kahn↗

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Method for optimizing resource allocation in a government organization

The managers in Federal agencies are challenged to control the extensive activities in government and still provide high-quality products and services to the American taxpayers. Considering today's complex social and economic environment and the $3.8 billion daily cost of operating the Federal Government, it is evident that there is a need to develop decision-making tools for accurate resource allocation and total quality management. The goal of this thesis is to provide a methodical process that will aid managers in Federal Government to make budgetary decisions based on the cost of services, the agency's objectives, and the customers' perception of the agency's product. A general resource allocation procedure was developed in this study that can be applied to any government organization. A government organization, hereafter the 'organization,' is assumed to be a multidivision enterprise. This procedure was applied to a small organization for the proof of the concept. This organization is the Technical Services Directorate (TSD) at the NASA Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. As part of the procedure, a nonlinear programming model was developed to account for the resources of the organization, the outputs produced by the organization, the decision-maker's views, and the customers' satisfaction with the organization. The information on the resources of the organization was acquired from current budget levels of the organization and the human resources assigned to the divisions. The outputs of the organization were defined and measured by identifying metrics that assess the outputs, the most challenging task in this study. The decision-maker's views are represented in the model as weights assigned to the various outputs and were quantified by using the analytic hierarchy process. The customer's opinions regarding the outputs of the organization were collected through questionnaires that were designed for each division individually. Following the philosophy of total quality management, information on customers' satisfaction is presented in the model as the quality of output. The model is a nonlinear one whose objective is to maximize customers' satisfaction such that the total cost of operation does not exceed the organization's budget. This model represents a structured approach or policy mechanism, at the agency level, to make capital investment decisions based on the priorities of the agency and the quality of outputs. This procedure applied to TSD resulted in a resources allocation scheme that was reasonable and acceptable to the decision-makers and, as expected, dependent on the assumptions and accuracy of the data used in the model.

Afarin, James↗

Collaborative Design of Robust Adaptation Pathways for Urban Flooding Resilience in Baltimore

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by changes in climate and rainfall, increased impervious area, aging infrastructure, and severe social inequity. Adaptations to urban flooding should strengthen community-scale resilience while navigating the uncertainties associated with future actions. However, the highly uncertain future climate and conflicting stakeholder objectives complicate the selection of effective and socially acceptable strategies. This study addresses these challenges through a community-informed Multi Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) process, coupled with Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP). Community stakeholders are engaged on a large scale through community partnerships, including priority identification sessions, focus groups, and metric identification workshops. The combination of community partnership, MORDM, and DAPP will create an original set of adaptation pathways which are aligned with community goals and values, and furthermore are adjustable under changing future constraints and conditions. This framework will enhance the city's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood conditions while accounting for diverse stakeholder interests and will provide guidance for addressing both the immediate and long-term challenges of urban flooding in Baltimore.

BSEC↗

EVA operational enhancements and ASEM

The major tasks planned for Assembly of Station by EVA Methods (ASEM) are reviewed, and operational analogies between ASEM and SSF are discussed. It is concluded that preparation for ASEM makes it possible to establish the protocol, policies, and procedures needed to perform these tasks safely, both for ASEM and the SSF. STS-49 will provide flight crew, ground crew, and SSF developers with vital first-hand knowledge and experience which cannot be gained any other way.

Armstrong, Karen R.↗

Terminal Area Productivity Program: Dynamic Spacing Human Factors

Dynamic spacing human factors deals with the following human factors issues: define controller limits to incorporating dynamic changes in separation standards; identify timing, planning, and coordination strategies; and consider consistency with current practices, policies, and regulations. The AVOSS technologies will make it possible to reduce separation standards in the terminal area under certain meteorological conditions. This paper contains the following sections: Dynamic space human factors overview, Preliminary tests, and current research status & plans.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗

Landsat-7 Mission and Early Results

The Landsat-7 mission has the goal of acquiring annual data sets of reflective band digital imagery of the landmass of the Earth at a spatial resolution of 30 meters for a period of five years using the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imager on the Landsat-7 satellite. The satellite was launched on April 15, 1999. The mission builds on the 27-year continuous archive of thematic images of the Earth from previous Landsat satellites. This paper will describe the ETM+ instrument, the spacecraft, and the ground processing system in place to accomplish the mission. Results from the first few months in orbit will be given, with emphasis on performance parameters that affect image quality, quantity, and availability. There will also be a discussion of the Landsat Data Policy and the user interface designed to make contents of the archive readily available, expedite ordering, and distribute the data quickly. Landsat-7, established by a Presidential Directive and a Public Law, is a joint program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Science Enterprise and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observing System (EROS) Data Center.

Dolan, S. Kenneth↗

Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making

This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.

Mason, Keith J.↗

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Air Quality Study Using Satellites - Current Capability and Future Plans

Satellite instruments have had great success in monitoring the stratospheric ozone and in understanding the processes that control its daily to decadal scale variations. This field is now reaching its zenith with a number of satellite instruments from the US, Europe and Canada capping several decades of active research in this field. The primary public policy imperative of this research was to make reliable prediction of increases in biologically active surface UV radiation due to human activity. By contrast retrieval from satellite data of atmospheric constituents and photo-chemically active radiation that affect air quality is a new and growing field that is presenting us with unique challenges in measurement and data interpretation. A key distinction compared to stratospheric sensors is the greatly enhanced role of clouds, aerosols, and surfaces (CAS) in determining the quality and quantity of useful data that is available for air quality research. In our presentation we will use data from several sensors that are currently flying on the A-train satellite constellation, including OMI, MODIS, CLOUDSAT, and CALIPSO, to highlight that CAS can have both positive and negative effects on the information content of satellite measurements. This is in sharp contrast to other fields of remote sensing where CAS are usually considered an interference except in those cases when they are the primary subject of study. Our analysis has revealed that in the reflected wavelengths one often sees much further down into the atmosphere, through most cirrus, than one does in the emitted wavelengths. The lower level clouds provide a nice background against which one can track long-range transport of trace gases and aerosols. In addition, differences in trace gas columns estimated over cloudy and adjacent clear pixels can be used to measure boundary layer trace gases. However, in order to take full advantage of these features it will be necessary to greatly advance our understanding of how CAS affect the radiation at wavelengths that are used to derive the atmospheric constituents that affect air quality as well as the radiation that controls the photolysis of chemically active trace gases. We will discuss how we are using these new insights to design future satellite missions to study air quality.

Bhartia, Pawan K.↗

Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Water Security

River basins for which transboundary coordination and governance is a factor are of concern to US national security, yet there is often a lack of sufficient data-driven information available at the needed time horizons to inform transboundary water decision-making for the intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. To address this need, a two-day workshop entitled Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Global Water Security was held in August 2017 in Maryland. The committee that organized and convened the workshop (the Organizing Committee) included representatives from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and the US Air Force. The primary goal of the workshop was to advance knowledge on the current US Government and partners' technical information needs and gaps to support national security interests in relation to transboundary water. The workshop also aimed to identify avenues for greater communication and collaboration among the scientific, intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. The discussion around transboundary water was considered in the context of the greater global water challenges facing US national security.

Hakimdavar, Raha↗

A review of United States energy-only generator interconnection service policy and considerations for reform

Grid interconnection has emerged as a significant obstacle to the development of new electricity resources. There is growing interest in energy-only interconnection, which is an interconnection service option meant to allow the interconnection of new generators without ensuring their energy deliverability during all hours through the transmission system to customers. This approach potentially avoids upfront congestion-related transmission upgrades but could increase curtailment risk. Interest in energy-only interconnection is shaped by incomplete understanding of how interconnection policy functions in different jurisdictions, a knowledge gap that makes it difficult to determine how energy-only interconnection might be better used or re-designed. In this paper, we provide a regulatory review of energy-only interconnection in U.S. interconnection policy and practice, identifying jurisdictions in which rules are close to -or farther from-the theoretical concept of energy-only interconnection service. We find substantial jurisdictional differences in how energy-only interconnection is implemented, driven by differences in resource adequacy frameworks, real-time transmission operations, and state-level procurement practices. U.S. regulators have preferred local jurisdictional flexibility over federal prescription of interconnection study methods and procedures, which also contributes to differences among regions. Such findings raise fundamental questions about whether competition policies in electricity markets should extend beyond spot energy markets and into more prescriptive guidelines around interconnection rules and market entry. This paper sheds light on tensions that energy-only interconnection raises in allowing generators to access the transmission system on an as available basis and discusses how controlling thresholds for congestion-related network upgrades may be a barrier to electricity market entry.

Gorman, Will↗

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Developing a NASA Lead-Free Policy for Electronics - Lessons Learned

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is not required by United States or international law to use lead-free (Pb-free) electronic systems but international pressure in the world market is making it increasingly important that NASA have a Pb-free policy. In fact, given the international nature of the electronics market, all organizations need a Pb-free policy. This paper describes the factors which must be taken into account in formulating the policy, the tools to aid in structuring the policy and the unanticipated and difficult challenges encountered. NASA is participating in a number of forums and teams trying to develop effective approaches to controlling Pb-free adoption in high reliability systems. The activities and status of the work being done by these teams will be described. NASA also continues to gather information on metal whiskers, particularly tin based, and some recent examples will be shared. The current lack of a policy is resulting in "surprises" and the need to disposition undesirable conditions on a case-by-case basis. This is inefficient, costly and can result in sub-optimum outcomes.

Sampson, Michael J.↗