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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Defense Resilience Technical Assistance Options - Initial Overview

The Defense Resilience Technical Assistance (TA) project, a collaboration between the DOE Grid Deployment Office and the DoD, aims to enhance energy infrastructure at military installations and utilities and the surrounding community. It focuses on improving energy system performance, addressing power infrastructure inadequacies, enhancing power quality, reducing cyber sabotage impacts, and strengthening digital supply chains. Defense Resilience Technical Assistance Options - Initial Overview. Intend to tailor to the pilot installation.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Monitoring of African Micro-Grids: Good Practices and Operational Data

This report investigates the current understanding and use of performance monitoring in the micro-grid sector by developers. It highlights the importance of performance monitoring by providing key performance monitoring indicators and suggesting performance monitoring activities that improve projects and programs. This report also presents the analysis of the performance data of 36 micro-grids currently operating in Africa, in one of the largest such assessments conducted to date within the sector and concludes by recommending potential next steps towards integrating performance monitoring into the micro-grid sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Missing Wedge Completion via Unsupervised Learning with Coordinate Networks

Cryogenic electron tomography (cryoET) is a powerful tool in structural biology, enabling detailed 3D imaging of biological specimens at a resolution of nanometers. Despite its potential, cryoET faces challenges such as the missing wedge problem, which limits reconstruction quality due to incomplete data collection angles. Recently, supervised deep learning methods leveraging convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have considerably addressed this issue; however, their pretraining requirements render them susceptible to inaccuracies and artifacts, particularly when representative training data is scarce. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a proof-of-concept unsupervised learning approach using coordinate networks (CNs) that optimizes network weights directly against input projections. This eliminates the need for pretraining, reducing reconstruction runtime by 3–20× compared to supervised methods. Our in silico results show improved shape completion and reduction of missing wedge artifacts, assessed through several voxel-based image quality metrics in real space and a novel directional Fourier Shell Correlation (FSC) metric. Our study illuminates benefits and considerations of both supervised and unsupervised approaches, guiding the development of improved reconstruction strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benefits of using multiple Raman laser wavelengths for characterizing defects in a UO 2 matrix

Abstract Raman spectroscopy is one of the most useful techniques for studying the structure of UO 2 and changes due to specific defects caused by doping, changes in stoichiometry, irradiation, or heating under oxidizing conditions. In this paper, we illustrate several aspects of the application of Raman techniques to the study of UO 2 , including the use of wavelength‐dependent excitation (455, 532, and 785 nm) to assess the effects of doping (Nd, Th, and Zr), ion irradiation, and in situ heating and oxidation (UO 2 to U 3 O 8 ). Additionally, we show examples of how correlative microscopy is possible using electron backscatter diffraction combined with Raman maps of specific vibration bands or of laser‐induced luminescence generated by rare‐earth dopants in the matrix. For each of these applications, we suggest optimal excitation wavelengths that vary depending on the desired data. Blue (455 nm) excitation tends to promote oxidation even at low powers, but because Raman spectra change little with doping, irradiation‐induced changes are easier to observe. Green (532 nm) excitation is optimal for observing electron–phonon resonance effects in UO 2 and offers a good compromise for high‐temperature oxidation experiments, delivering high‐quality spectra for both UO 2 and U 3 O 8 . Infrared (785 nm) excitation is best for observing “defect” bands associated with doping in UO 2 , as changes with irradiation are small. Raman spectroscopy is particularly suited for studying the stability of UO 2 towards oxidation in the presence of dopants simulating fission products, where electron–phonon resonant effects, dopant ion luminescence, and mapping can be used together to investigate structural rearrangement as a function of temperature. These techniques can offer insight into microstructural changes in UO 2 fuels at higher burnups envisioned in future reactors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source scaling comparison and validation in Central Italy: data intensive direct S waves versus the sparse data coda envelope methodology

SUMMARY Robustness of source parameter estimates is a fundamental issue in understanding the relationships between small and large events; however, it is difficult to assess how much of the variability of the source parameters can be attributed to the physical source characteristics or to the uncertainties of the methods and data used to estimate the values. In this study, we apply the coda method by Mayeda et al. using the coda calibration tool (CCT), a freely available Java-based code (https://github.com/LLNL/coda-calibration-tool) to obtain a regional calibration for Central Italy for estimating stable source parameters. We demonstrate the power of the coda technique in this region and show that it provides the same robustness in source parameter estimation as a data-driven methodology [generalized inversion technique (GIT)], but with much fewer calibration events and stations. The Central Italy region is ideal for both GIT and coda approaches as it is characterized by high-quality data, including recent well-recorded seismic sequences such as L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice–Norcia–Visso (2016–2017). This allows us to apply data-driven methods such as GIT and coda-based methods that require few, but high-quality data. The data set for GIT analysis includes ∼5000 earthquakes and more than 600 stations, while for coda analysis we used a small subset of 39 events spanning 3.5 < Mw < 6.33 and 14 well-distributed broad-band stations. For the common calibration events, as well as an additional 247 events (∼1.7 < Mw < ∼5.0) not used in either calibration, we find excellent agreement between GIT-derived and CCT-derived source spectra. This confirms the ability of the coda approach to obtain stable source parameters even with few calibration events and stations. Even reducing the coda calibration data set by 75 per cent, we found no appreciable degradation in performance. This validation of the coda calibration approach over a broad range of event size demonstrates that this procedure, once extended to other regions, represents a powerful tool for future routine applications to homogeneously evaluate robust source parameters on a national scale. Furthermore, the coda calibration procedure can homogenize the Mw estimates for small and large events without the necessity of introducing any conversion scale between narrow-band measures such as local magnitude (ML) and Mw, which has been shown to introduce significant bias.

Morasca, Paola (ORCID:0000000265254867)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flash electropolishing for TEM: Reducing FIB‐induced defects in tungsten with protocols for new materials

Focused ion beam (FIB) milling has become the dominant approach for site-specific transmission electron microscopy (TEM) specimen preparation; however, FIB damage remains a critical limitation for reliable microstructural characterisation, particularly in radiation effects studies. Tungsten is especially susceptible to FIB damage due to its high nuclear stopping power, which promotes the formation and strong diffraction contrast of FIB-induced ‘black spot’ defects that are indistinguishable from very fine irradiation-induced loops/defects resulting from low to intermediate temperature neutron irradiation. In this work, flash electropolishing is systematically evaluated as a post-FIB treatment for minimising preparation-induced artefacts for TEM analysis of tungsten-based alloys. Using a range of non-, ion-, and neutron-irradiated tungsten materials, the effectiveness of flash electropolishing has been assessed through direct comparison with conventional FIB and plasma-FIB preparation including low-energy Ga, Ar, Xe ion cleaning. The results demonstrate that flash electropolishing effectively removes FIB-damaged layers and ‘black spot’ defects, thereby enabling reliable observation of irradiation-induced dislocation structures. Key processing parameters governing flash electropolishing quality – including lamella thickness, applied voltage, polishing duration, electrolyte chemistry, and cathode geometry – have been systematically evaluated, and clear criteria were established for determining when flash electropolishing is required to ensure reliable microstructural analysis. This work also provides practical guidance for implementing flash electropolishing as an artefact-controlled specimen-preparation approach for TEM characterisation of FIB-produced specimens. The systematic protocol can be extended to other, non-tungsten materials.

TEM sample preparation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics and Variability of the Nearshore Wave Resource on the U.S. West Coast

Characterizing the nearshore wave resource at a regional scale poses a great challenge because high-quality wave data are required. This paper presents a detailed analysis of nearshore wave climate and resource characterization on the U.S. West Coast based on a 32-year, regional wave hindcast. Resource characterization closely followed the International Electrotechnical Commission standards. The wave hindcast data were generated from an unstructured-grid SWAN model with approximately 300 m grid resolution in the nearshore region. Statistics of six IEC wave resource parameters at the 50 m water depth were calculated for four sub-regions along the coast, including Washington, Oregon, and Northern and Southern California. Results indicate that the Washington and Oregon coast has a similar nearshore wave resource. The wave resource in Southern California is significantly less than that of the Washington and Oregon coast. Alongshore and cross-shore variabilities of wave power were assessed. Temporal variability, at seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales were analyzed. Overall, strong seasonal variation is observed; high wave energy occurs in the winter months and calm seas in the summer. Finally, extreme environmental conditions, i.e., the 100-year extreme environmental contours, for different locations along the West Coast were investigated.

wave resource characterization, nearshore, west co↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deployment of the HFIRCON transport and depletion tool for plutonium-238 production studies

Irradiation of {sup 237}Np-bearing targets in Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) results in the efficient production of {sup 238}Pu, which, in the form of heat source PuO{sub 2}, is used as a reliable power source for deep-space and planetary NASA missions. A technology demonstration subproject was initiated at ORNL in 2011 to develop and implement the technology required to establish a {sup 238}Pu supply chain. A systematic progression of NpO{sub 2}/Al cermet (20 vol.% NpO{sub 2}) activities to date has successfully demonstrated target fabrication, irradiation, and chemical recovery processes. Recent program tasks have included the development of the HFIRCON transport and depletion tool for efficient reactor physics analyses and the evaluation of increased NpO{sub 2} loadings (i.e., beyond 20 vol.%) and NpN-based targets. This paper documents the deployment of the HFIRCON code to assess various Np concentrations in NpO{sub 2}- and NpN-based targets in HFIR's inner small vertical experiment facilities. Results indicate that {sup 238}Pu production and quality can be enhanced with increased Np loadings; however, target conversion rates are reduced. The results recorded in this paper, thermal and material balance evaluations, and testing requirement planning will be used to determine whether increased NpO{sub 2} loadings or NpN-based targets will be further considered. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics Testbed Assessment

The following assessment evaluates the efficacy of the control script for carrying out a linear signal to generate a linear mechanical response of the system: the TRUST nonlinear dynamics (TRUSTND) testbed. The hardware has three main components: the controller (NI PXIe 8861) embedded in the National Instruments chassis (NI PXIe 1092), the signal amplifier (The Modal Shop Linear Power Amplifier 2050E09) to amplify the output of a custom LabVIEW script, and a shaker (The Modal Shop Electrodynamic Exciter 2075E) where wave spring specimens live and are tested within the attached aluminum testbed (center mass). Different kinds of signals (single-tone, swept frequency and white noise) were sent through this hardware in the E-1 lab space at TA-53. First, the linearity of the setup was tested by specifying a sine wave in the control script and checking the quality of the oscillations in a wave spring (McMaster-Carr 9714K19 [1]). When passing a sine wave through the amplifier was succeeded, the frequency response of the wave spring was tested with white noise for comparison to finite-element model predictions. The testbed outputs a repeatable, linear response to the input excitation when used with the wave spring. These measurements reduce the uncertainty associated with the testbed and test procedure to better characterize uncertainty associated with material behavior (SX358 foam samples) in future tests

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

AGC-4 Experiment Irradiation Monitoring Data Qualification Final Report

The Graphite Technology Development Program ran a series of six experiments to quantify the effects of irradiation on nuclear grade graphite. This report focuses on the fourth experiment, Advanced Graphite Creep 4 (AGC 4). The Advanced Reactor Development (ARD) Technology Development Office (TDO) Program for research and development activities require documentation of qualified monitoring data to design and license the first high-temperature reactor nuclear plant. Qualified data meets the requirements for use as described in the experiment planning and quality assurance documents. Failed data do not meet the requirements and provide no useable information. Trend data may not meet all requirements but still provide some useable information. Use of Trend data requires assessment of how any deficiencies affect a particular use of the data. AGC-4 began with Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) Cycle 157D on May 30, 2015. After irradiating the graphite for two cycles, the capsule was removed from the reactor after ATR Cycle 158A, which ended on January 2, 2016, due to interference with another experiment. Irradiation was resumed with Cycle 162A on October 7, 2017 after the interfering experiment was removed from the reactor. AGC-4 irradiation completed by the end of Cycle 166B on January 10, 2020. Between Cycles 162A and 166B, AGC-4 capsule was removed from the reactor core during two Powered Axial Locator Mechanism (PALM) Cycles 163A and 165A to avoid overheating. All thermocouples (TCs) have functioned throughout the AGC-4 experiment. A total of 9,256,184 out of all 11,167,213 temperature records (or 82.9%) are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 1,911,029 missing values are Failed. Argon, helium, and total gas flow data were within expected ranges, except only eight out-of-range values occurred during outages. A total of 21,240,627 out of all 22,288,5103 gas flow rates (or 92.8%) are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 1,644,476 are Failed records mostly due to missing values. Discharge gas line moisture values were consistently low during full ATR power, except for 162B, when moisture content was increasing to more than 200 ppmv by the end of this cycle. During outages, moisture content reached as high as 700 ppmv. 1,089,941 out of a total of 1,107,331 moisture values (or 98.4%) are within the measurement range of the instrument and are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 17,390 missing moisture values are Failed. Graphite creep specimens were subjected to one of three loads: 393, 491, or 589 lbf. For a brief period during Cycle 157D between 12:19 on June 2, 2015, and 08:23 on June 11, 2015, the load cells were wired incorrectly, resulting in missing stack load data. Missing stack loads were estimated from measured ram pressures using regression equations developed from the existing data from Cycle 157D. Estimated stack loads during this period are considered to be an accurate representation of actual load applied to the stacks. These loads deviate slightly from the planned loads. This deviation does not prevent the data from being Qualified for use but must be taken into account when analyzing the effect of load on creep. 6,095,728 out of a total of 6,403,985 moisture values (or 95.2%) are within the measurement range of the instrument and are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 308,257 missing load values are Failed. Stack displacement increased consistently throughout the eight cycles, with total displacement reached highest value of 2.4 in by the end of irradiation. During ATR outages, a set of pneumatic rams raised the stacks of graphite creep specimens to ensure the specimens were not stuck within the test train. This stack raising was performed seven times throughout irradiation. All stacks were raised successfully each time. 4,744,974 out of a total of 6,094,513 displacement values (or 77.9%) are within the measurement range of the instrument and are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 1,349,539 displacement values are Failed mostly due to missing values. Analyses were conducted on correlations between TCs to look for trends and step changes that might indicate instrument degradation or failure. Correlation analysis was used to identify instances when TCs form short circuits, referred to as virtual junctions, which result in TCs reporting temperatures from some location in the capsule other than the location where they were intended to read. No evidence of virtual junctions was found. Analyses were also conducted on control charts of temperature differences of between two TCs, which are expected to behave consistently throughout the entire irradiation period. Upward or downward trend over time indicates at least one TC in the pair was drifted. Examining control charts for all 66 possible pairs out of twelve TCs installed in the AGC-4 capsules reveal no clear drift failures occurred, except unstable behavior of two TCs in Zone 3, TC-7 and TC-8, over irradiation time. In conclus

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Water Impacts on Interconnection-Scale Electricity System Planning

A growing literature emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change impacts into electricity system planning. Rising average temperatures can increase and shift electricity demand while reducing generator and transmission efficiency. Changes to water availability and quality can reduce the output of thermally cooled generators and hydropower. Electric power grids across the US and globally are undergoing transformational changes that present new opportunities and challenges to reliability assurance. However, electric utilities and system operators have limited internal capabilities to incorporate these effects into planning practices. This work addresses gaps in utility and system planner practices by integrating climate-water-electricity expertise from universities and U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratories with electricity system planners and stakeholders in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). Using a highly collaborative approach, global climate model data, high-resolution hydrology models, and long-term electric sector capacity expansion tools are employed to analyze a range of climate outcomes for future electricity scenarios aligned with recent WECC planning studies. Doing so allows WECC to expand its climate-agnostic planning assessments to consider how future temperature and precipitation patterns could influence generation and transmission planning. We explore how changes to climate-water conditions can affect power plant investment and operation, system economics, and environmental impacts, providing an expanded perspective on interconnection-wide decision making under climate uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting the Transition from Grid-Scale to Emerging Market Wave Energy Converter Design and Assessment

In the past decade there has been increasing interest in emerging markets for wave energy, both as a stepping stone for development and as a way to create new opportunities for offshore markets such as ocean observation or desalination. Developers who were once focused exclusively on grid-scale development have begun to engage with more unique markets. This has led researchers to begin examining means of assessing emerging-market devices. In this paper, we analyze the Technology Performance Level (TPL) Assessment for its potential use in the assessment of emerging market wave energy converters (EM-WECs). We use Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and a question-by-question analysis of the TPL assessment to determine the changes necessary for such an assessment to be applicable in emerging markets. We discuss how the primary differences between the markets could impact the viable development pathways for developers hoping to succeed in multiple markets. We determine that the different stakeholders and stakeholder requirements of some emerging markets compared to gridscale applications should be met with changes to cost-toperformance metrics, prototype testing processes, recovery planning, materials selection, optimization objectives, and public engagement.

blue economy↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗