Results for “Predictive Value of Tests” — Page 10

NASA NTRS2012

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using specially designed test hardware enabling measurement of heat transferred through a simulated Stirling cycle. The overall effort and results are discussed.

Wilson, Scott D.↗

NASA NTRS1959

Maximum Mean Lift Coefficient Characteristics at Low Tip Mach Numbers of a Hovering Helicopter Rotor Having an NACA 64(1)A012 Airfoil Section

An investigation has been conducted on the Langley helicopter test tower to determine experimentally the maximum mean lift-coefficient characteristics at low tip Mach number and a limited amount of drag- divergence data at high tip Mach number of a helicopter rotor having an NACA 64(1)AO12 airfoil section and 8 deg of linear washout. Data are presented for blade tip Mach numbers M(t) of 0.29 to 0.74 with corresponding values 6 6 of tip Reynolds number of 2.59 x 10(exp 6) and 6.58 x 10(exp 6). Comparisons are made between the data from the present rotor with results previously obtained from two other rotors: one having NACA 0012 airfoil sections and the other having an NACA 0009 airfoil tip section. At low tip Mach numbers, the maximum mean lift coefficient for the blade having the NACA 64(1)AO12 section was about 0.08 less than that obtained with the blade having the NACA 0009 tip section and 0.21 less than the value obtained with the blade having the NACA 0012 tip section. Blade maximum mean lift coefficient values were not obtained for Mach number values greater than 0.47 because of a blade failure encountered during the tests. The effective mean lift-curve slope required for predicting rotor thrust varied from 5.8 for the tip Mach nuniber range of 0.29 to 0.55 to a value of 6.65 for a tip Mach number of 0.71. The blade pitching-moment coefficients were small and relatively unaffected by changes in thrust coefficient and Mach number. In the instances in which stall was reached, the break in the blade pitching-moment curve was in a stable direction. The efficiency of the rotor decreased with an increase in tip speed. Expressed as figure of merit, at a tip Mach number of 0.29 the maximum value was about 0.74. Similar measurements made on another rotor having an NACA 0012 airfoil and with a rotor having an NACA 0009 tip section, showed a value of 0.75. Synthesized section lift and profile-drag characteristics for the rotor-blade airfoil section are presented as an aid in predicting the high-tip-speed performance of rotors having similar airfoils.

Powell, Robert D., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS1987

High-resolution heat-transfer-coefficient maps applicable to compound-curve surfaces using liquid crystals in a transient wind tunnel

Tests were performed in a transient heat transfer tunnel in which the model under test was preheated prior to allowing room temperature air to be suddenly drawn over the model. The resulting movement of isothermal contours on the model is revealed using a surface coating of thermochromic liquid crystals that display distinctive colors at particular temperatures. A video record is obtained of a temperature and time data pair for all points on the model during a single test. Experiments on a duct model are reported in which the model was preheated using a hot air stream. A manner in which initial model temperature nonuniformities could be taken into account was investigated. The duct model was also tested with a steady-state measurement technique and results were compared with the transient measurements, but recognizing that differences existed between the upstream thermal boundary conditions. The steady-state and transient measurements were shown to be consistent with predicted values. The main advantage of this transient heat transfer technique using liquid crystals is that since the test model need not be actively heated, high-resolution measurements on surfaces with complex shapes may be obtained.

Jones, T. V.↗

NASA NTRS1988

High-resolution heat-transfer-coefficient maps applicable to compound-curve surfaces using liquid crystals in a transient wind tunnel

Tests were performed in a transient heat transfer tunnel in which the model under test was preheated prior to allowing room temperature air to be suddenly drawn over the model. The resulting movement of isothermal contours on the model is revealed using a surface coating of thermochromic liquid crystals that display distinctive colors at particular temperatures. A video record is obtained of a temperature and time data pair for all points on the model during a single test. Experiments on a duct model are reported in which the model was preheated using a hot air stream. A manner in which initial model temperature nonuniformities could be taken into account was investigated. The duct model was also tested with a steady-state measurement technique and results were compared with the transient measurements, but recognizing that differences existed between the upstream thermal boundary conditions. The steady-state and transient measurements were shown to be consistent with predicted values. The main advantage of this transient heat transfer technique using liquid crystals is that since the test model need not be actively heated, high-resolution measurements on surfaces with complex shapes may be obtained.

Jones, Terry V.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Labyrinth seal testing for lift fan engines

An abradable buffered labyrinth seal for the control of turbine gas path leakage in a tip-turbine driven lift fan was designed, tested, and analyzed. The seal configuration was not designed to operate in any specific location but was sized to be evaluated in an existing test rig. The final sealing diameter selected was 28 inches. Results of testing indicate that the flow equations predicted seal air flows consistent with measured values. Excellent sealing characteristics of the abradable coating on the stator land were demonstrated when a substantial seal penetration of .030 inch into the land surface was encountered without appreciable wear on the labyrinth knife edges.

Dobek, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Ride quality evaluation. IV - Models of subjective reaction to aircraft motion

The paper examines models of human reaction to the motions typically experienced on short-haul aircraft flights. Data are taken on the regularly scheduled flights of four commercial airlines - three airplanes and one helicopter. The data base consists of: (1) a series of motion recordings distributed over each flight, each including all six degrees of freedom of motion; temperature, pressure, and noise are also recorded; (2) ratings of perceived comfort and satisfaction from the passengers on each flight; (3) moment-by-moment comfort ratings from a test subject assigned to each airplane; and (4) overall comfort ratings for each flight from the test subjects. Regression models are obtained for prediction of rated comfort from rms values for six degrees of freedom of motion. It is shown that the model C = 2.1 + 17.1 T + 17.2 V (T = transverse acceleration, V = vertical acceleration) gives a good fit to the airplane data but is less acceptable for the helicopter data.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Increased capabilities of the 30-cm diameter Hg ion thruster

A 30-cm-diam mercury ion thruster, using two or three grid ion accelerating systems, is operated at increased values of beam current. Comparisons with the SEP (Solar Electric Propulsion) and EPSEP (Extended Performance SEP) baseline thrusters are made with respect to performance and lifetime. It is found that when a third, or decelerator, grid is added to the conventional two-grid optics of a SEP-like thruster, the ion beam focusing properties are improved, as expected from theoretical considerations. The total thruster efficiency as a function of specific impulse, is increased for values of specific impulse in the range 1200-2800 sec. Lifetime test results predict a thruster lifetime, under space conditions, not less than that of the baseline SEP thruster.

Rawlin, V. K.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Modelling of the 10-micrometer natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

The NLTE radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00 deg 1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-IR solar heating rate.

Deming, D.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Modeling of the 10-micron natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

The NLTE radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00 deg 1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-IR solar heating rate.

Deming, D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Coolant passage heat transfer with rotation

Although the effects of the coriolis and buoyancy forces due to rotation on coolant-side heat transfer are generally not included in the design methods for blades, the influence of these forces could be large. Comparisons of nonrotating heat transfer data and extrapolations of available correlation for the average heat transfer coefficients with radial outflow of cooling air showed that neglecting rotation at gas turbine engine conditions result in variations in the heat transfer coefficient by as much as 45 percent. This, in effect, results in blade metal temperatures running as much as 100 F different from predicted values. This also may explain why rotating blade metal temperatures in engine tests are often higher than expected from results obtained in nonrotating cascade tests.

Rohde, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

Wilson, Scott D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of three-point-bend test for materials with unequal tension and compression properties

An analysis capability is described for the three-point-bend test applicable to materials of linear but unequal tensile and compressive stress-strain relations. The capability consists of numerous equations of simple form and their graphical representation. Procedures are described to examine the local stress concentrations and failure modes initiation. Examples are given to illustrate the usefulness and ease of application of the capability. Comparisons are made with materials which have equal tensile and compressive properties. The results indicate possible underestimates for flexural modulus or strength ranging from 25 to 50 percent greater than values predicted when accounting for unequal properties. The capability can also be used to reduce test data from three-point-bending tests, extract material properties useful in design from these test data, select test specimen dimensions, and size structural members.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Performance Evaluation of Intravehicular Activity Spacesuit Without the Use of a Liquid Cooling Garment

The Orion Crew Survival Systems (OCSS) suit is equipped with safety technology that protects the crew during launch and re-entry and Intravehicular Activities (IVA). It was designed to be used with a Liquid Cooling Garment (LCG), an undergarment with tubes that circulate water to remove excess heat from a crew member. The objective of this study is to determine if the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES), which has very similar material, assembly, and pressure characteristics as the OCSS suit, can be used without the LCG to maintain the crew within their heat storage requirements where exceedances can lead to cognitive and physiological impairment. Testing was completed for both hot and cold environments where test subjects wore varying configurations of the MACES suit ensemble without the LCG. The tests were conducted in a temperature and humidity-controlled chamber with four test subjects ranging from extra small to large. Target metabolic rates were reached using an arm ergometer. To represent the different suit configurations seen in the concept of operations, the suit was tested with visor-down, visor-up, and without helmet and gloves. The test data was analyzed to determine how the environment, test subject size, metabolic rate, and suit configuration affected heat storage. Furthermore, the test data was used to correlate the METMAN model, a transient metabolic man program that simulates the heat transfer within a crew member’s body and from a crew member to the surrounding environment. The METMAN correlation showed good agreement between predicted heat storage and test data at the end of the test duration, with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) value of 0.8999 for visor-down cases and R 2 of 0.8902 for visor-up and helmet off cases. A correlated METMAN model allows for the analysis and prediction of IVA suit performance without an LCG in additional scenarios.

Human Thermal Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2026

Performance Evaluation of Intravehicular Activity Spacesuit Without the Use of a Liquid Cooling Garment

The Orion Crew Survival Systems (OCSS) suit is equipped with safety technology that protects the crew during launch and re-entry and Intravehicular Activities (IVA). It was designed to be used with a Liquid Cooling Garment (LCG), an undergarment with tubes that circulate water to remove excess heat from a crew member. The objective of this study is to determine if the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES), which has very similar material, assembly, and pressure characteristics as the OCSS suit, can be used without the LCG to maintain the crew within their heat storage requirements where exceedances can lead to cognitive and physiological impairment. Testing was completed for both hot and cold environments where test subjects wore varying configurations of the MACES suit ensemble without the LCG. The tests were conducted in a temperature and humidity-controlled chamber with four test subjects ranging from extra small to large. Target metabolic rates were reached using an arm ergometer. To represent the different suit configurations seen in the concept of operations, the suit was tested with visor-down, visor-up, and without helmet and gloves. The test data was analyzed to determine how the environment, test subject size, metabolic rate, and suit configuration affected heat storage. Furthermore, the test data was used to correlate the METMAN model, a transient metabolic man program that simulates the heat transfer within a crew member’s body and from a crew member to the surrounding environment. The METMAN correlation showed good agreement between predicted heat storage and test data at the end of the test duration, with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) value of 0.8999 for visor-down cases and R 2 of 0.8902 for visor-up and helmet off cases. A correlated METMAN model allows for the analysis and prediction of IVA suit performance without an LCG in additional scenarios.

Spacesuit↗

NASA NTRS2004

Model Update of a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) Flexible Wing Frame with Uncertainty Quantification

This paper describes a procedure to update parameters in the finite element model of a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) to improve displacement predictions under aerodynamics loads. Because of fabrication, materials, and geometric uncertainties, a statistical approach combined with Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) is used to modify key model parameters. Static test data collected using photogrammetry are used to correlate with model predictions. Results show significant improvements in model predictions after parameters are updated; however, computed probabilities values indicate low confidence in updated values and/or model structure errors. Lessons learned in the areas of wing design, test procedures, modeling approaches with geometric nonlinearities, and uncertainties quantification are all documented.

Reaves, Mercedes C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

NASA Structural Analysis Report on the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident - Local Analysis of the Right Rear Lug

A detailed finite element analysis of the right rear lug of the American Airlines Flight 587 - Airbus A300-600R was performed as part of the National Transportation Safety Board s failure investigation of the accident that occurred on November 12, 2001. The loads experienced by the right rear lug are evaluated using global models of the vertical tail, local models near the right rear lug, and a global-local analysis procedure. The right rear lug was analyzed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, solid-shell type modeling is used, and in the second approach, layered-shell type modeling is used. The solid-shell and the layered-shell modeling approaches were used in progressive failure analyses (PFA) to determine the load, mode, and location of failure in the right rear lug under loading representative of an Airbus certification test conducted in 1985 (the 1985-certification test). Both analyses were in excellent agreement with each other on the predicted failure loads, failure mode, and location of failure. The solid-shell type modeling was then used to analyze both a subcomponent test conducted by Airbus in 2003 (the 2003-subcomponent test) and the accident condition. Excellent agreement was observed between the analyses and the observed failures in both cases. From the analyses conducted and presented in this paper, the following conclusions were drawn. The moment, Mx (moment about the fuselage longitudinal axis), has significant effect on the failure load of the lugs. Higher absolute values of Mx give lower failure loads. The predicted load, mode, and location of the failure of the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident condition are in very good agreement. This agreement suggests that the 1985-certification and 2003- subcomponent tests represent the accident condition accurately. The failure mode of the right rear lug for the 1985-certification test, 2003-subcomponent test, and the accident load case is identified as a cleavage-type failure. For the accident case, the predicted failure load for the right rear lug from the PFA is greater than 1.98 times the limit load of the lugs. I.

Raju, Ivatury S↗

NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗