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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Superconductivity in CH 4 and BH – 4 containing compounds derived from the high-pressure superhydrides

Inspired by the synthesis of the high-pressure Fm3m LaH 10 superconducting superhydride, systematic density functional theory (DFT) calculations are performed to study ternaries that could be derived from it by replacing two of the hydrogen atoms with boron or carbon and varying the identity of the electropositive element. Though many of the resulting alkali-metal and alkaline-earth MC 2 H 8 phases are predicted to be dynamically stable at mild pressures, their superconducting critical temperatures (T c s) are low because their metallicity results from the filling of an electride-like band. Substitution with a trivalent element leads to phases with substantial metal d- character at the Fermi level whose T c s are typically above 40 K. Here, among the MB 2 H 8 phases examined, KB 2 H 8 , RbB 2 H 8 and CsB 2 H 8 are predicted to be dynamically stable at very mild pressures, and their stability is rationalized by a DFT-Chemical Pressure analysis that elucidates the role of the M atom size. Quantum anharmonic effects strongly affect the properties of KB 2 H 8 , the highest predicted T c compound, near 10 GPa, but molecular dynamics simulations reveal it would decompose below its T c at this pressure. Nonetheless, at ca. 50 GPa KB 2 H 8 is predicted to be thermally stable with a superconducting figure of merit surpassing that of the recently synthesized LaBeH 8 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial Interpolation of Air Pollutant and Meteorological Variables in Central Amazonia

The Amazon Rainforest is highlighted by the global community both for its extensive vegetation cover that constantly suffers the effects of anthropic action and for its substantial biodiversity. This dataset presents data of meteorological variables from the Amazon Rainforest region with a spatial resolution of 0.001° in latitude and longitude, resulting from an interpolation process. The original data were obtained from the GoAmazon 2014/5 project, in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) repository, and then processed through mathematical and statistical methods. The dataset presented here can be used in experiments in the field of Data Science, such as training models for predicting climate variables or modeling the distribution of species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning-Based Hardness Prediction of Novel Refractory High-Entropy Alloys with Experimental Validation

Hardness is an essential property in the design of refractory high entropy alloys (RHEAs). This study shows how a neural network (NN) model can be used to predict the hardness of a RHEA, for the first time. We predicted the hardness of several alloys, including the novel C0.1Cr3Mo11.9Nb20Re15Ta30W20 using the NN model. The hardness predicted from the NN model was consistent with the available experimental results. The NN model prediction of C0.1Cr3Mo11.9Nb20Re15Ta30W20 was verified by experimentally synthesizing and investigating its microstructure properties and hardness. This model provides an alternative route to determine the Vickers hardness of RHEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s

Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tandem repeats in giant archaeal Borg elements undergo rapid evolution and create new intrinsically disordered regions in proteins

Borgs are huge, linear extrachromosomal elements associated with anaerobic methane-oxidizing archaea. Striking features of Borg genomes are pervasive tandem direct repeat (TR) regions. Here, we present six new Borg genomes and investigate the characteristics of TRs in all ten complete Borg genomes. We find that TR regions are rapidly evolving, recently formed, arise independently, and are virtually absent in host Methanoperedens genomes. Flanking partial repeats and A-enriched character constrain the TR formation mechanism. TRs can be in intergenic regions, where they might serve as regulatory RNAs, or in open reading frames (ORFs). TRs in ORFs are under very strong selective pressure, leading to perfect amino acid TRs (aaTRs) that are commonly intrinsically disordered regions. Proteins with aaTRs are often extracellular or membrane proteins, and functionally similar or homologous proteins often have aaTRs composed of the same amino acids. We propose that Borg aaTR-proteins functionally diversify Methanoperedens and all TRs are crucial for specific Borg–host associations and possibly cospeciation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) (2021 Workshop Report)

In October 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) welcomed participants to the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) Workshop, hosted by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER)—Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR). The workshop is part of BER-ASCR’s ambition to more radically and aggressively advance prediction capabilities in the climate, Earth, and environmental sciences through the use of modern data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI). Advances in these capabilities are needed to improve predictions of climate change and extreme events that provide actionable information for planning and building resilience to their impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ARM Aerial Instrument Workshop Report

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program is to “support transformative science and scientific user facilities to achieve a predictive understanding of complex biological, earth, and environmental systems for energy and infrastructure security, independence, and prosperity.” (https://science.osti.gov/ber) Aligned with the BER central mission, the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) plays a vital role in supporting the fundamental research to understand and predict Earth’s climate and environmental systems, and is also in a unique position to inform the development of sustainable solutions to the nation’s energy and environmental challenges. Specifically, EESSD manages two scientific user facilities: the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility and the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL). These facilities provide the broader scientific community with scientific expertise, technical capabilities, and unique data sets to facilitate science in areas of importance to DOE. As a multi-platform scientific user facility, ARM aims to fulfill the needs predominantly within the EESSD Atmospheric System Research (ASR) and the Earth and Environmental System Modeling (EESM) mission areas, and provide the critical measurements required to improve understanding of aerosol and cloud life cycles and their interactions, and their coupling with the Earth’s surface. Over the years, ARM has carried out piloted and unmanned aircraft campaigns under different organizational and operational paradigms (Schmid et al. 2014, 2016). Building on its success, the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) continues to complement the ground-based observations with airborne in situ cloud, aerosol, and trace gas observations as well as measurements of atmospheric state and atmospheric radiation. During the past three years, ARM has managed field campaigns using unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) at Oliktok Point in Alaska to improve understanding of atmospheric processes in the Arctic. In 2019, following a careful evaluation of scientific community needs, ARM acquired a Bombardier Challenger 850 regional jet to replace the vintage Grumman Gulfstream-159 turboprop aircraft previously used by AAF. With this new “laboratory in the sky”, AAF is evaluating its current and future aerial observation capabilities to continue satisfying the needs of the research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection in Materials Digital Twins with Multiscale ICME for Additive Manufacturing

Detecting anomaly in fatigue and fracture experimental materials science is an interesting yet challenging topic. The reasons are threefold. First, the anomalous microstructure feature that gives rise to structural failure is small, sometimes in the order of 10 -7 of the interrogated volume. This, in turn, results in a highly imbalanced classification problem in machine learning (ML). Second, the consequence is high, in the sense that the test specimen is destructed in such case. Third, the convolution between microstructure stochasticity and the small probability of void nucleation, growth, and coalescence makes failure and fracture a hard-to-predict and challenging problem in materials science due to its irreproducibility, even experimentally. In this paper, we developed a materials digital twin and applied anomaly detection methods to detect voids and anomaly in additive manufacturing (AM). The materials digital twin is driven by two integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models, which are kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) and crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). In conclusion, we demonstrated that by using anomaly detection, it is possible to detect voids and other defects in materials digital twin, which paves way for future research in integrating materials digital twin with its physical counterpart.

ICME↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Codesign for Earth System Predictability

Abstract Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper. Significance Statement This study aims to provide perspectives on AI architectures and codesign approaches for Earth system predictability. Such visionary perspectives are essential because AI-enabled model-data integration has shown promise in improving predictions associated with climate change, perturbations, and extreme events. Our forward-looking ideas guide what is next in codesign to enhance Earth system models, observations, and theory using state-of-the-art and futuristic computational infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Future of LANSCE [Slides]

LANSCE is a NNSA Center for Materials and Nuclear Research. An aging stockpile presents unique challenges in materials and nuclear science. The grand challenge of a predictive materials capability includes design to manufacture and born certified. This requires capability to study manufacture to structure relationships and capability to study structure to performance relationships. LANSCE has the capabilities needed for this mission. We leverage our capability to provide broader benefit to the Nation including production of medical isotopes, industrial irradiation facility for electronics certification, and fundamental materials and physics research. The LANSCE linear accelerator is nearly 50 years old. The severity of maintenance issues is increasing. We must reinvest in LANSCE to ensure mission delivery into the future. We must develop new capability to be responsive to changing mission needs. Ultimately this will require a Dynamic Mesoscale Materials Science Capability. Now we must develop a pathway to MaRIE that ensures continued operation of LANSCE.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Implicit Approach to Phase Field Modeling of Solidification for Additively Manufactured Alloys [Slides]

We are leveraging modern algorithms and computational science to provide a route to predictive simulation of microstructure evolution on emerging exascale architectures. We are utilizing the fastest supercomputers in the world for modeling and simulation of microstructure evolution for generation of data under AM conditions. Solidification conditions in AM can be tailored for the reliable design of materials to specific performance requirements. Developing computational tools to further characterize alloys and correlate the processing-structure-properties-performance (PSPP) relationship.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗