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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Learning generative neural networks with physics knowledge

Deep generative neural networks have enabled modeling complex distributions, but incorporating physics knowledge into the neural networks is still challenging and is at the core of current physics-based machine learning research. To this end, we propose a physics generative neural network (PhysGNN), a new class of generative neural networks for learning unknown distributions in a physical system described by partial differential equations (PDE). PhysGNN couples PDE systems with generative neural networks. It is a fully differentiable model that allows back-propagation of gradients through both numerical PDE solvers and generative neural networks, and is trained by minimizing the discrete Wasserstein distance between generated and observed probability distributions of the PDE outputs using the stochastic gradient descent method. Moreover, PhysGNN does not require adversarial training like standard generative neural networks, which offers better stability than adversarial training. We show that PhysGNN can learn complex distributions in stochastic inverse problems, where conventional methods such as maximum likelihood estimation and momentum matching methods may be inapplicable when little knowledge is known about the form of unknown distributions or the physical model is too complex. Furthermore, our method allows physics-based generative neural network training for learning complex distributions in the context of differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correlated $\ n-γ$ angular distributions from the $\ Q$ = 4.4398 MeV 12 C ($\ n, n' γ$) reaction for incident neutron energies from 6.5 MeV to 16.5 MeV

Neutron scattering cross sections and angular distributions represent one of the most glaring sources of uncertainty in calculations of nuclear systems. Even simple nuclei like 12 C show indications of errors in nuclear databases for scattering reactions. Measurements of inelastic neutron scattering have historically measured either the scattered neutrons or the nuclear deexcitation $\ γ$ emission. Only a very small number of experiments attempted correlated measurements of both the neutron and $\ γ$ data simultaneously, even though these $\ n-γ$ correlations could be essential for understanding particle transport in nuclear systems. In this work we describe a measurement of the $\ n, γ$, and correlated $\ n-γ$ angular distributions from the $\ Q$ = 4.4398 MeV 12 C ($\ n, n'γ$) reaction in a single experiment using an EJ-309 liquid scintillator detector array with wide angular coverage, and with a continuous incident neutron energy range from 6.5 to 16.5 MeV. We also provide a thorough covariance description of these results, including normalization of the probability distribution. While the measured n distributions agree well with the relatively large number of available literature measurements, there are comparatively very few measurements of the γ distributions from this reaction. However, our data support the presence of a nonzero α 4 Legendre polynomial component of the γ angular distribution suggested in past measurements, which is currently not incorporated in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library despite the use of these same literature data for evaluation of the 12 C ($\ n, n'γ$) cross section. The correlated $\ n-γ$ distribution measurements are limited to three measurements at incident neutron energies near 14 MeV. Our results do not generally agree with any of these literature measurements. We observe clear indications of significant changes in the $\ n$ distribution for specific $\ γ$-detection angles and vice versa especially near thresholds for other reaction channels, which shows the potential for significant bias in experiments that, for example, tag on inelastic scattering using a single or small number of $\ γ$ -detection angles and could impact particle transport calculations.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Many Elements Matter?

Some studies of stars' multielement abundance distributions suggest at least 5–7 significant dimensions, but others show that many elemental abundances can be predicted to high accuracy from [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] (or [Fe/H] and age) alone. We show that both propositions can be, and are, simultaneously true. We adopt a machine-learning technique known as normalizing flow to reconstruct the probability distribution of Milky Way disk stars in the space of 15 elemental abundances measured by APOGEE. Conditioning on T eff and $\mathrm{log}\,g$ minimizes the differential systematics. After further conditioning on [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe], the residual scatter for most abundances is σ [X/H] ≲ 0.02 dex, consistent with APOGEE's reported statistical uncertainties of ~0.01–0.015 dex and intrinsic scatter of 0.01–0.02 dex. Despite the small scatter, residual abundances display clear correlations between elements, which we show are too large to be explained by measurement uncertainties or by the finite sampling noise. We must condition on at least seven elements to reduce the correlations to a level consistent with the observational uncertainties. Our results demonstrate that cross-element correlations are a much more sensitive probe of a hidden structure than dispersion, and they can be measured precisely in a large sample even if the star-by-star measurement noise is comparable to the intrinsic scatter. We conclude that many elements have an independent story to tell, even for the mundane disk stars and elements produced by the core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae. The only way to learn these lessons is to measure the abundances directly, and not merely infer them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

NO PLIF flow visualization and time-resolved temperature distributions in laser induced breakdown plumes

NO planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) is used to obtain images of laser-induced breakdown plasma plumes in NO-seeded nitrogen and dry air at near atmospheric pressure. Single-shot PLIF-images show that the plume development 5–50 μs after the breakdown pulse is fairly reproducible shot-to-shot, although the plume becomes increasingly stochastic on longer timescales, 100–500 μs. The stochastic behavior of the plume is quantified using probability distributions of the loci of the plume boundary. Analysis of the single-shot images indicates that the mixing of the plume with ambient gas on sub-ms time scale is insignificant. The induced flow velocity in the plume is fairly low, up to 30 m s –1 , suggesting that laser breakdowns are ineffective for mixing enhancement in high speed flows. The ensemble-averaged PLIF images indicate the evolution of the plume from an initially elongated shape to near-spherical to toroidal shape, with a subsequent radial expansion and formation of an axial jet in the center. Temperature distributions in the plume in air are obtained from the NO PLIF images, using two rotational transitions in the NO(X, v' = 0 → A, v'' = 0) band, J'' = 6.5 and 12.5 of the Q R 12 + Q 2 branch. The results indicate that the temperature in the plume remains high, above 1000 K, for approximately 100 μs, after which it decays gradually, to below 500 K at 500 μs. The residual NO fraction in the plume is ~0.1%, indicating that repetitive laser-assisted ignition may result in significant NO-generation. Furthermore, these measured temperature and velocity distributions can be used for detailed validation of kinetic models of laser-induced breakdown and assessment of their predictive capability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Sensitivity of GPz Estimates of Photo-z Posterior PDFs to Realistically Complex Training Set Imperfections

The accurate estimation of photometric redshifts is crucial to many upcoming galaxy surveys, for example, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Almost all Rubin extragalactic and cosmological science requires accurate and precise calculation of photometric redshifts; many diverse approaches to this problem are currently in the process of being developed, validated, and tested. In this work, we use the photometric redshift code GPz to examine two realistically complex training set imperfections scenarios for machine learning based photometric redshift calculation: (i) where the spectroscopic training set has a very different distribution in color–magnitude space to the test set, and (ii) where the effect of emission line confusion causes a fraction of the training spectroscopic sample to not have the true redshift. By evaluating the sensitivity of GPz to a range of increasingly severe imperfections, with a range of metrics (both of photo-z point estimates as well as posterior probability distribution functions, PDFs), we quantify the degree to which predictions get worse with higher degrees of degradation. In particular, we find that there is a substantial drop-off in photo-z quality when line-confusion goes above ~1%, and sample incompleteness below a redshift of 1.5, for an experimental setup using data from the Buzzard Flock synthetic sky catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reliability-Informed Life-Cycle Warranty Cost Analysis: A Case Study on a Transmission in Agricultural Equipment

In agricultural and industrial equipment, both new and remanufactured systems are often available for warranty coverage. In such cases, it may be challenging for equipment manufacturers to properly trade-off between the system reliability and the cost associated with a replacement option (e.g., replace with a new or remanufactured system). To address this problem, we present a reliability-informed life-cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis framework that enables equipment manufacturers to evaluate different warranty policies. These warranty policies differ in whether a new or remanufactured system is used for replacement in the case of product failure. The novelty of this LCWC analysis framework lies in its ability to incorporate real-world field reliability data into warranty policy assessment using probabilistic warranty cost models that consider multiple life cycles. First, the reliability functions for the new and remanufactured systems are built as the time-to-failure distributions that provide the best-fit to the field reliability data. Then, these reliability functions and their corresponding warranty policies are used to build the LCWC models according to the specific warranty terms. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate the time-to-failure uncertainty of each system, modeled by its reliability function, through each LCWC model to produce a probability distribution of the LCWC. The effectiveness of the proposed reliability-informed LCWC analysis framework is demonstrated with a real-world case study on a transmission used in some agricultural equipment.

agricultural equipment↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of pore size on water dynamics in mesoporous silica

Water confined in mesoporous silica plays a central role in its many uses ranging from gas sorption to nanoconfined chemical reactions. Here in this paper, the influence of pore diameter (2.5–5.4 nm) on water hydrogen bond (H-bond) dynamics in MCM41 and SBA15 mesoporous silicas is investigated using femtosecond infrared vibrational spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations on selenocyanate (SeCN-) anions dissolved in the pores. As shown recently, SeCN- spectral diffusion is a reliable probe of surrounding water H-bond structural motions. Additionally, the long CN stretch vibrational lifetime facilitates measurement of the full range of confined dynamics, which are much slower than in bulk water. The simulations shed light on quantitative details that are inaccessible from the spatially averaged observables. The dependence of SeCN- orientational relaxation and that of spectral diffusion on the distance from the silica interface are quantitatively described with an exponential decay and a smoothed step-function, respectively. The distance-dependence of both quantities is found to be independent of the diameter of the pores, and the spatial distribution of SeCN- is markedly non-uniform, reaching a maximum between the interface and the pore center. The results indicate that the commonly invoked two-state, or core–shell, model is a more appropriate description of spectral diffusion. Using these insights, we model the full time-dependence of the measured dynamics for all pore sizes and extract the “core” and “shell” dynamical correlation functions and SeCN- spatial probability distributions. The results are critically compared to those for water confined in reverse micelles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Probabilistic Voltage Risk Assessment of MiniWECC System with Uncertain PVs and Wind Generations using Realistic Data

Here, it is found from actual data that due to generation dispatch and uncertain renewable generations and loads with complicated correlations, inferring the probabilistic distributions for uncertain inputs is challenging. Many probabilistic power flow approaches have been developed in the literature but their validations using realistic systems and data are lacking. This paper proposes a data-driven probabilistic analysis approach for system risk assessment of the miniWECC system using actual data. The sparse Gaussian process (SGP) is advocated to quantify the impacts of uncertain inputs on voltage security. SGP does not need the probability distribution function of uncertain inputs, can handle correlations and is highly computationally efficient. Results on the miniWECC system using realistic data show that SGP outperforms existing approaches and is able to quantify the voltage violation risks.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Noise Robustness and Experimental Demonstration of a Quantum Generative Adversarial Network for Continuous Distributions

Abstract The potential advantage of machine learning in quantum computers is a topic of intense discussion in the literature. Theoretical, numerical, and experimental explorations will most likely be required to understand its power. There have been different algorithms proposed to exploit the probabilistic nature of variational quantum circuits for generative modeling. In this paper, a hybrid architecture for quantum generative adversarial networks (QGANs) is employed and their robustness in the presence of noise is studied. A simple way of adding different types of noise to the quantum generator circuit is devised, and the noisy hybrid QGANs (HQGANs) are simulated numerically to learn continuous probability distributions, and to show that the performance of HQGANs remains unaffected. The effect of different parameters on the training time is also investigated to reduce the computational scaling of the algorithm and simplify its deployment on a quantum computer. The training on Rigetti's Aspen‐4‐2Q‐A quantum processing unit is then performed, and the results from the training are presented. The authors' results pave the way for experimental exploration of different quantum machine learning algorithms on noisy intermediate‐scale quantum devices.

Anand, Abhinav↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scrambling and quantum chaos indicators from long-time properties of operator distributions

Scrambling is a key concept in the analysis of nonequilibrium properties of quantum many-body systems. Most studies focus on its characterization via out-of-time-ordered correlation (OTOC) functions, particularly through the early-time decay of the OTOC. However, scrambling is a complex process which involves operator spreading and operator entanglement, and a full characterization requires one to access more refined information on the operator dynamics at several timescales. In this work we analyze operator scrambling by expanding the target operator in a complete basis and studying the structure of the expansion coefficients treated as a coarse-grained probability distribution in the space of operators. Here we study different features of this distribution, such as its mean, variance, and participation ratio, for the Ising model with longitudinal and transverse fields, kicked collective spin models, and random circuit models. We show that the long-time properties of the operator distribution display common features across these cases and discuss how these properties can be used as a proxy for the onset of quantum chaos. Finally, we discuss the connection with OTOCs and analyze the cost of probing the operator distribution experimentally using these correlation functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Large Distribution System with PVs using Deep Gaussian Process

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the voltage to uncertain power injection variations plays an important role for appropriate Volt-VAR optimization. This paper proposes a data-driven GSA method for large-scale distribution systems with a large number of uncertain sources. Specifically, the deep Gaussian process is used to identify the mapping relationship between uncertain power injections and voltages. This allows us to resort to the analysis of variance framework to calculate the Sobol indices for GSA. Unlike the existing polynomial chaos expansion and Gaussian process-based approaches, our proposed method has much better scalability. Test results on the EPRI 1747-node K1 circuit with a different number and different probability distributions of uncertain sources demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA under various conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

What Sets the Star Formation Rate of Molecular Clouds? The Density Distribution as a Fingerprint of Compression and Expansion Rates

We use a suite of 3D simulations of star-forming molecular clouds, with and without stellar feedback, magnetic fields, and driven turbulence, to study the compression and expansion rates of the gas as functions of density. We show that, around the mean density, supersonic turbulence promotes rough equilibrium between the amounts of compressing and expanding gas, consistent with continuous gas cycling between high- and low-density states. We find that the inclusion of protostellar jets produces rapidly expanding and compressing low-density gas. We find that the gas mass flux peaks at the transition between the lognormal and power-law forms of the density probability distribution function (PDF). This is consistent with the transition density tracking the post-shock density, which promotes an enhancement of mass at this density (i.e., shock compression and filament formation). At high densities, the gas dynamics are dominated by self-gravity: the compression rate in all of our runs matches the rate of the run with only gravity, suggesting that processes other than self-gravity have little effect at these densities. The net gas mass flux becomes constant at a density below the sink formation threshold, where it equals the star formation rate. The density at which the net gas mass flux equals the star formation rate is one order of magnitude lower than our sink threshold density, corresponds to the formation of the second power-law tail in the density PDF, and sets the overall star formation rates of these simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗