Meteorological Conditions During an Ozone Episode in Dallas‐Fort Worth, Texas, and Impact of Their Modeling Uncertainties on Air Quality Prediction
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Xiao‐Ming Hu↗
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Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia
The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.
Nikolay Balashov↗
A pilot modeling technique for handling-qualities research
A brief survey of the more dominant analysis techniques used in closed-loop handling-qualities research is presented. These techniques are shown to rely on so-called classical and modern analytical models of the human pilot which have their foundation in the analysis and design principles of feedback control. The optimal control model of the human pilot is discussed in some detail and a novel approach to the a priori selection of pertinent model parameters is discussed. Frequency domain and tracking performance data from 10 pilot-in-the-loop simulation experiments involving 3 different tasks are used to demonstrate the parameter selection technique. Finally, the utility of this modeling approach in handling-qualities research is discussed.
Hess, R. A.↗
Watershed Modeling with Remotely Sensed Big Data: MODIS Leaf Area Index Improves Hydrology and Water Quality Predictions
Traditional watershed modeling often overlooks the role of vegetation dynamics. There is also little quantitative evidence to suggest that increased physical realism of vegetation dynamics in process-based models improves hydrology and water quality predictions simultaneously. In this study, we applied a modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantify the extent of improvements that the assimilation of remotely sensed Leaf Area Index (LAI) would convey to streamflow, soil moisture, and nitrate load simulations across a 16,860 km2 agricultural watershedin the midwestern United States. We modified the SWAT source code to automatically override the model’s built-in semiempirical LAI with spatially distributed and temporally continuous estimates from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Compared to a “basic” traditional model with limited spatial information, our LAI assimilation model (i) significantly improved daily streamflow simulations during medium-to-low flow conditions, (ii) provided realistic spatial distributions of growing season soil moisture, and (iii) substantially reproduced the long-term observed variability of daily nitrate loads. Further analysis revealed that the overestimation or underestimation of LAI imparted a proportional cascading effect on how the model partitions hydrologic fluxes and nutrient pools. As such, assimilation of MODIS LAI data corrected the model’sLAI overestimation tendency, which led to a proportionally increased rootzone soil moisture and decreased plant nitrogen uptake. With these new findings, our study fills the existing knowledge gap regarding vegetation dynamics in watershed modeling and confirms that assimilation of MODIS LAI data in watershed models can effectively improve both hydrology and water quality predictions.
Adnan Rajib↗
Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research
Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.
Luthcke, Scott↗
The NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM): Recent Updates and Applications
Improvements to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) and its application to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system are presented. The LNOM analyzes Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and National Lightning Detection Network(tm) (NLDN) data to estimate the raw (i.e., unmixed and otherwise environmentally unmodified) vertical profile of lightning NOx (= NO + NO2). Lightning channel length distributions and lightning 10-m segment altitude distributions are also provided. In addition to NOx production from lightning return strokes, the LNOM now includes non-return stroke lightning NOx production due to: hot core stepped and dart leaders, stepped leader corona sheath, K-changes, continuing currents, and M-components. The impact of including LNOM-estimates of lightning NOx for an August 2006 run of CMAQ is discussed.
Koshak, William↗
Comparison of chemical lateral boundary conditions for air quality predictions over the contiguous United States during pollutant intrusion events
The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operated in U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational forecast guidance for ozone and fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) over the contiguous 48 U.S. states (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The existing NAQFC uses climatological chemical lateral boundary conditions ( CLBCs), which cannot capture pollutant intrusion events originating outside of the model domain. In this study, we developed a model framework to use dynamic CLBCs from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS) to drive NAQFC. A mapping of the GEOS chemical species to the CMAQ’s Carbon Bond 5 (CB05)-Aero6 species was developed. The utilization of the GEOS dynamic CLBCs in NAQFC showed the best overall performance in simulating the surface observations during the Saharan dust intrusion and Canadian wildfire events in summer 2015.The simulated PM2.5 was improved from 0.18 to 0.37 and the mean bias was reduced from -6.74 μg/m3 to -2.96 μg/m3 over CONUS. Although the effect of CLBCs on the PM2.5 correlation was mainly near the inflow boundary, its impact on the background concentrations reached further inside the domain. The CLBCs could affect background ozone concentrations through the inflows of ozone itself and its precursors, such as CO. It was further found that the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from satellite retrievals correlated well with the column CO and elemental carbon from GEOS. The satellite-derived AOT CLBCs generally improved the model performance for the wildfire intrusion events during a summer 2018 case study, and demonstrated how satellite observations of atmospheric composition could be used as an alternative method to capture the air quality effects of intrusions when the global model CLBCs, such as GEOS CLBCs, are not available.
Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model↗
Analysis of air quality management with emphasis on transportation sources
The current environment and practices of air quality management were examined for three regions: Denver, Phoenix, and the South Coast Air Basin of California. These regions were chosen because the majority of their air pollution emissions are related to mobile sources. The impact of auto exhaust on the air quality management process is characterized and assessed. An examination of the uncertainties in air pollutant measurements, emission inventories, meteorological parameters, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality simulation models is performed. The implications of these uncertainties to current air quality management practices is discussed. A set of corrective actions are recommended to reduce these uncertainties.
English, T. D.↗
Modeling of vortex generated sound in solid propellant rocket motors
There is considerable evidence based on both full scale firings and cold flow simulations that hydrodynamically unstable shear flows in solid propellant rocket motors can lead to acoustic pressure fluctuations of significant amplitude. Although a comprehensive theoretical understanding of this problem does not yet exist, procedures were explored for generating useful analytical models describing the vortex shedding phenomenon and the mechanisms of coupling to the acoustic field in a rocket combustion chamber. Since combustion stability prediction procedures cannot be successful without incorporation of all acoustic gains and losses, it is clear that a vortex driving model comparable in quality to the analytical models currently employed to represent linear combustion instability must be formulated.
Flandro, G. A.↗
Characterization of the Heat Extraction Capability of a Compliant, Sliding, Thermal Interface for Use in a High Temperature, Vacuum Microgravity Furnace
Much of the material science gained in microgravity research requires processing a sample in a high performance furnace. One such furnace currently being designed is the Quench Module Insert (QMI). The Principle Investigators, for whom the furnace is proposed, require high temperature gradients in their cylindrical samples to achieve the science objectives. One of the components critical to achieving high sample axial temperature gradients in the Quench Module Insert is a high performance cold zone to extract the heat from the sample. This cold zone employs a compliant, sliding thermal interface based on a Vel-Therm felt. This felt provides a conductive path between the Sample Cartridge Assembly (SCA) exterior surface and the interior surface of the water cooled chill block while allowing movement of the sample relative to the chill block. The Vel-Therm felt is composed of long polymer-based fibers affixed to a thin flexible substrate layer. The fibers are oriented perpendicular to this substrate giving the felt the appearance of a velvet fabric. The Vel-Therm felt heat extraction capability was quantified in earlier tests performed in an inert gas environment. The current activity, described in this paper, is intended to characterize the extraction capability of Vel-Therm felt in a vacuum environment similar to the QMI environment. This testing is necessary to quantify the thermal performance of the Vel-Therm felt and the sensitivity of that performance to key variables. The data derived from these tests will be incorporated into the current thermal models to improve the quality of the models and reduce uncertainty of the analytical results. In addition, the data will be used to help select the appropriate Vel-Therm felt and set proper operating limits as well as assess the performance range of the furnace. The objective of this test is to measure the heat extraction rate of the Vel-Therm felt as specified by the effective heat transfer coefficient. Therefore, the test setup was designed to force the bulk of the heat transfer through the area where the Vel-Therm felt was applied. A heat source, consisting of a ceramic heating element encased in a Copper (Cu) housing is mounted on four isolated support rods. A 6-layer molybdenum radiation shield is used to insulate against heat loss from the heater and prevent heat exchange between the hot and cold sides of the test apparatus. The Vel-Therm felt is affixed to the surface of the cold sink, a water-cooled Cu chill block. An adjustable plate supports and isolates the cold sink from above and is used to control the amount of the deflection of the Vel- Therm when in contact with the Cu heating element housing. The primary means of establishing the power being conducted through the felt is to measure the energy being transferred to the water passing through the chill block. Analysis was performed to support the assumption that the source and sink surfaces were approximately isothermal under the specific test conditions. As a check on the amount of power passing through the felt, the power supplied to the heater was also measured. Thermocouples were strategically located throughout the test apparatus for measurement purposes. A bell jar was lowered over the assembly to impose vacuum conditions. Currently, variables tested have been fiber compression and fiber type and surface temperatures (both the hot and cold side temperatures are hypothesized to be important to the performance of the Vel-Therm.) Selected runs were repeated to ensure consistency and repeatability. Results obtained thus far reveal that Vel-Therm performance is significantly degraded by fibers being exposed to high compression. It also shows that performance is somewhat negatively impacted by previous compression, thereby, raising the question of repeatability. In addition, early results show a significant dependence on temperature. A computer aided mathematical analysis of the test setup is ongoing. The results will be correlated to actual results. The correlation will examine such details as parasitic loses, conduction down the power leads and many other concerns.
Bellomy-Ezell, Jenny↗
Flow Quality Measurements in an Aerodynamic Model of NASA Lewis' Icing Research Tunnel
As part of an ongoing effort to improve the aerodynamic flow characteristics of the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), a modular scale model of the facility was fabricated. This 1/10th-scale model was used to gain further understanding of the flow characteristics in the IRT. The model was outfitted with instrumentation and data acquisition systems to determine pressures, velocities, and flow angles in the settling chamber and test section. Parametric flow quality studies involving the insertion and removal of a model of the IRT's distinctive heat exchanger (cooler) and/or of a honeycomb in the settling chamber were performed. These experiments illustrate the resulting improvement or degradation in flow quality.
Canacci, Victor A.↗
Application of the model technique to a variable-stability helicopter for simulation of vtol handling qualities
Application of computer model technique to variable-stability helicopter for in-flight simulation of VTOL handling qualities
HELICOPTER↗
Aircraft model prototypes which have specified handling-quality time histories
Several techniques for obtaining linear constant-coefficient airplane models from specified handling-quality time histories are discussed. The pseudodata method solves the basic problem, yields specified eigenvalues, and accommodates state-variable transfer-function zero suppression. The algebraic equations to be solved are bilinear, at worst. The disadvantages are reduced generality and no assurance that the resulting model will be airplane like in detail. The method is fully illustrated for a fourth-order stability-axis small motion model with three lateral handling quality time histories specified. The FORTRAN program which obtains and verifies the model is included and fully documented.
Johnson, S. H.↗
Manufacturing Bms/Iso System Review
The Quality Management System (QMS) is one that recognizes the need to continuously change and improve an organization s products and services as determined by system feedback, and corresponding management decisions. The purpose of a Quality Management System is to minimize quality variability of an organization's products and services. The optimal Quality Management System balances the need for an organization to maintain flexibility in the products and services it provides with the need for providing the appropriate level of discipline and control over the processes used to provide them. The goal of a Quality Management System is to ensure the quality of the products and services while consistently (through minimizing quality variability) meeting or exceeding customer expectations. The GRC Business Management System (BMS) is the foundation of the Center's ISO 9001:2000 registered quality system. ISO 9001 is a quality system model developed by the International Organization for Standardization. BMS supports and promote the Glenn Research Center Quality Policy and wants to ensure the customer satisfaction while also meeting quality standards. My assignment during this summer is to examine the manufacturing processes used to develop research hardware, which in most cases are one of a kind hardware, made with non conventional equipment and materials. During this process of observation I will make a determination, based on my observations of the hardware development processes the best way to meet customer requirements and at the same time achieve the GRC quality standards. The purpose of my task is to review the manufacturing processes identifying opportunities in which to optimize the efficiency of the processes and establish a plan for implementation and continuous improvement.
Gomez, Yazmin↗
The Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM): Status and Recent Applications
Improvements to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) are discussed. Recent results from an August 2006 run of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system that employs LNOM lightning NOx (= NO + NO2) estimates are provided. The LNOM analyzes Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data to estimate the raw (i.e., unmixed and otherwise environmentally unmodified) vertical profile of lightning NOx. The latest LNOM estimates of (a) lightning channel length distributions, (b) lightning 1-m segment altitude distributions, and (c) the vertical profile of NOx are presented. The impact of including LNOM-estimates of lightning NOx on CMAQ output is discussed.
Koshak, William↗
Aircraft model prototypes which have specified handling-quality time histories
Several techniques for obtaining linear constant-coefficient airplane models from specified handling-quality time histories are discussed. One technique, the pseudodata method, solves the basic problem, yields specified eigenvalues, and accommodates state-variable transfer-function zero suppression. The method is fully illustrated for a fourth-order stability-axis small-motion model with three lateral handling-quality time histories specified. The FORTRAN program which obtains and verifies the model is included and fully documented.
Johnson, S. H.↗
Tenth-scale powered model test of a tilt-nacelle V/STOL airplane
Wind tunnel and ground static tests of a tenth scale powered model of a lift/cruise fan airplane have been conducted to define its low speed performances and handling qualities. The model was powered by three 5.5-in diameter turbopowered simulators; one located in the forebody while the remaining two were installed in tilting nacelles mounted on the aft body. Results are presented for static hover tests in ground effects with the model configured for VTOL operations and at forward speeds with the model configured for loiter, short takeoff, and VTOL operations.
Omar, M. E.↗
Program of research in severe storms
Two modeling areas, the development of a mesoscale chemistry-meteorology interaction model, and the development of a combined urban chemical kinetics-transport model are examined. The problems associated with developing a three dimensional combined meteorological-chemical kinetics computer program package are defined. A similar three dimensional hydrostatic real time model which solves the fundamental Navier-Stokes equations for nonviscous flow is described. An urban air quality simulation model, developed to predict the temporal and spatial distribution of reactive and nonreactive gases in and around an urban area and to support a remote sensor evaluation program is reported.
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