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DOE OSTI2026

Security Constrained Economic Optimization of Photovoltaic and Other Distributed Assets

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), especially photovoltaic (PV) systems, has introduced new complexities in maintaining grid reliability, stability, and cost-effective operation. This project addresses these challenges by developing and demonstrating a scalable GridOS Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS) that enables secure, real-time optimization and control of DERs at the distribution feeder level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

An integrated in-situ coordination strategy enabling high-performance layered cathodes for sodium-ion batteries

O3-type layered transition metal oxide cathodes hold tremendous potential in sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) due to their low cost and high energy density. However, the structure instability associated with detrimental phase transitions and severe interface parasitic reactions exacerbate the material's electrochemical performance degradation. Herein, we develop an integrated in-situ coordination strategy via heteroatomic modulation inducing coherent epitaxial layer to collaboratively enhance the overall framework robustness from surface to bulk. The theoretical calculation and multiple in/ex-situ characterizations demonstrate the charge density around oxygen is redistributed, which promotes the electron localization, thus widening the NaO 2 lattice space and accelerating the Na + transport dynamics. Furthermore, the formed strengthened oxygen bond energy effectively distributes the long-range coordination of Mn 3+ O 6 octahedron, thereby alleviating Jahn-Teller distortion and local stress. Importantly, the in-situ formed conformal buffer layer dramatically relieves the adverse interface side reactions, facilitating the construction of robust cathode-electrolyte interface, which ameliorate the whole structure stability of designed materials. Consequently, the optimized NFMZ@NZO-1.0 exhibits the excellent cycling stability with 80.2% capacity retention after 300 cycles at 1C, and delivers a high discharge capacity of 107.1 mAh g −1 at 10C. In conclusion, this distinctive coupling strategy provides valuable insights for developing high-performance layered cathode materials in SIBs.

Coherent epitaxial layer↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interaction of Soil pH and Mineralogy Controls Soil Organic Matter Persistence through Changes in the Composition and Amount of Microbial Necromass

Microbial necromass–mineral associations are key to long-term soil organic matter (SOM) persistence. However, how soil pH and mineralogy interact to regulate SOM stability remains poorly understood. Here, we used artificial soils to test how three clay minerals (bentonite, kaolinite, and goethite), adjusted to four pH levels (5–8), affect microbial activity (respiration), microbial physiology (carbon use efficiency, CUE), microbial-derived residue material (necromass), and the formation and stability of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM). Artificial soils were inoculated with a rhizosphere-derived microbial community cultured under the same pH conditions and on two representative simulated exudate types (organic acids and carbohydrates) and incubated for 6 weeks. In two complementary experiments, we added necromass from known microbial taxa to the same minerals across pH levels to isolate the role of necromass chemistry and loading. We found that soil pH shaped MAOM chemistry by altering microbial activity and necromass composition. In interaction with mineral type, pH also controlled MAOM thermal stability. Higher necromass loading weakened mineral-organic bonding, reducing MAOM stability, consistent with zonal mineral–organic interaction models. Our results demonstrate that microbial activity, rather than carbon use efficiency, better predicts MAOM formation and that pH-dependent necromass composition and loading govern MAOM persistence. These findings advance mechanistic understanding of SOM stabilization and have implications for predicting soil carbon dynamics under shifting environmental conditions.

carbon use efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2023

Photoelectrochemical materials for solar energy conversion

Research and development on semiconductors for applications in solar energy conversion has witnessed rapid growth over the past several decades. With the aim of producing chemical fuels from sunlight, intense research efforts have focused on the discovery of semiconductors with crystalline structures and chemical compositions that have the potential to satisfy the complex set of required photoelectrochemical properties. This chapter focuses on the foundational structure-property relationships of selected oxide and nitride semiconductors relevant to their uses as n-/p-type photoelectrodes and as photocatalysts. Their solid-state structures and compositions are described, with a special emphasis on strategies proven effective at targeting suitable band gaps with strong visible-light absorption, efficient charge separation and diffusion of charge carriers, and optimal band edge energies for driving surface redox reactions for water splitting.

O’Donnell, Shaun↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the role of local tunnel variations in early-stage lithiation of α-MnO₂ nanowires via in situ TEM

Understanding lithium-ion transport in tunnel-structured manganese oxides is essential for designing high-performance lithium-ion battery electrode materials. Here, we elucidate the early-stage lithiation mechanism of potassium-stabilized α-MnO 2 nanowires using in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) coupled with electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), high-resolution TEM (HRTEM), and geometric phase analysis (GPA). Real-time TEM imaging reveals clear volume expansion at the reaction front, while EELS analysis uncovers lithium-ion diffusion far beyond this region, where no visible expansion is observed, indicating fast, defect-assisted transport. GPA and HRTEM analyses show that localized tensile and compressive strain fields, originating from pre-existing local tunnel structural variations, persist after lithiation. The tensile-strained regions enable lithium-ion insertion with minimal lattice distortion, offering additional free volume that facilitates rapid lithium-ion accommodation ahead of the structural transformation. Our results demonstrate a local tunnel variation-mediated fast diffusion pathway that precedes bulk reaction, underscoring the critical role of local strain in enabling early-stage lithium transport. Given the structural versatility of MnO 2 and its ability to accommodate diverse atomic arrangements beyond the well-known tunnel phases (β-, γ-, δ-, λ-, R-phases), our findings highlight the importance of understanding and engineering local structural environments. This work provides fundamental insights into the interplay between defects, strain, and ion dynamics, and presents defect engineering as a promising approach to enhance both rate performance and structural stability in manganese-based cathodes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Development of Kinetic and Radiation Hydrodynamics Modeling of Thermonuclear Burn Propagation in Isochoric p - 11 B Through the Support of the INFUSE Program

The report summarizes DOE INFUSE-supported work between HB11 Energy and the University of Rochester’s TriForce Institute to improve computational modeling of advanced fusion fuels, especially proton–boron-11 (p- 11 B). The project extended the TriForce particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collision code to include physics needed for dense, high-temperature p- 11 B burn studies, including p- 11 B fusion reactions, three-alpha-particle reaction products, relativistic Coulomb collisions, large-angle nuclear scattering, bremsstrahlung radiation, inverse bremsstrahlung absorption, and photon transport. The upgraded models were verified against focused physics tests and against known deuterium–tritium burn behavior. The study then used one-dimensional spherical simulations to estimate the conditions required for thermonuclear burn propagation in isochoric p- 11 B fuel. The calculations found that burn propagation is possible in the model, but only under very extreme hot-spot conditions, such as about 7000 g/cm 3 at 500 keV or 9000 g/cm 3 at 300 keV for a 20-micron hot spot. These conditions are much more demanding than current demonstrated inertial confinement fusion hot spots. The report concludes that the INFUSE collaboration successfully advanced kinetic and radiation modeling capabilities for p- 11 B fusion and provided useful estimates of ignition requirements. However, the simulated fuel gains remain below what would be needed for practical inertial fusion energy, and further work is needed to reconcile differences among kinetic, radiation-hydrodynamic, and analytic models and to identify more achievable target designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Full-Induction Magnetohydrodynamics Solver for Liquid Metal Fusion Blankets in Vertex-CFD

Multiphysics modeling of liquid metal fusion blankets, which produce tritium and convert energy of neutrons created via fusion reactions into heat, is crucial for predicting performance, ensuring structural integrity, and optimizing energy production. While traditional blanket modeling of liquid metal flows during normal steady operating conditions commonly employs the inductionless approximation of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, transient scenarios, when the plasma-confining magnetic field varies on millisecond time scales, require a full-induction MHD approach that dynamically evolves the magnetic field via the time-dependent induction equation. This paper presents the formulation, implementation, and initial verification of a full-induction MHD solver integrated within the open-source Vertex-CFD framework, which aims to achieve tight multiphysics coupling, a flexible software design enabling easy extension and addition of physics models, and performance portability across computing platforms. The solver utilizes finite element spatial discretization, implicit Runge–Kutta time integration, and an inexact Newton method to solve the resulting discrete nonlinear system, leveraging Trilinos packages for efficient computation. Verification against selected benchmark problems demonstrates accuracy and robustness of the solver. Furthermore, when the solver is applied to an idealized blanket model in 2.5D and full 3D, results obtained with Vertex-CFD are in good agreement with recently published quasi-2D simulations. These findings establish a computational foundation for future simulations of transient MHD phenomena in liquid metal blankets with Vertex-CFD, and open avenues for future extensions and performance optimizations.

Endeve, Eirik [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000312519507)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Process control-enabled mitigation of microstructural and plastic heterogeneities in additively manufactured Grade 91 steel

Synergizing wire arc-directed energy deposition (WA-DED) additive manufacturing (AM) with particle-strengthened creep strength-enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels enables fabrication and repair of critical power-plant components. Investigations focused on fusion-welded particle-strengthened CSEF steels, such as Grade 91 steel, have linked microstructurally heterogeneous regions—forming due to heat affected zones (HAZ)—with premature failure during elevated temperature service. Fusion-based AM, including WA-DED, likewise generates microstructurally and plastically heterogeneous regions due to spatiotemporally varying thermokinetics during deposition. However, works investigating such microstructural heterogeneities, their implications for mechanical behavior, and strategies to mitigate their formation remain scarce. This work identifies microstructurally and plastically heterogeneous regions within the WA-DED-processed Grade 91 steel. Spatial microhardness variations in the as-fabricated specimen correlate with the variation in the attributes of grain, martensitic microstructure, and precipitates across the fusion zone and HAZ. Digital image correlation-enabled tensile tests performed at 500 °C revealed pronounced deformation localization and a wave-like strain distribution, with wavelength close to the melt pool depth, indicating susceptibility of the as-fabricated components to premature creep failure. Such heterogeneity in microstructural and mechanical behavior was attributed to recurring solid-state phase transformations. Subsequently, an interlayer temperature control strategy was implemented, wherein maintaining interlayer temperature above the martensitic start temperature mitigated the heterogeneous microstructural and plastic response in the as-fabricated condition. Findings open pathways to achieving deformation-localization- and creep-resistant microstructures in WA-DED fabricated particle-strengthened CSEF steel components, reducing reliance on post-welding heat treatments—conventionally required to enhance creep resistance—and enabling on-demand, short lead-time fabrication of next-generation power-plant components.

Heat affected zones↗

DOE OSTI2026

Kinetic control of phase evolution and defect-mediated recombination in AACVD-grown copper antimony sulphide thin films

Copper antimony sulphide (CAS) is a multinary chalcogenide semiconductor in which small deviations from stoichiometry can drive phase competition and strong defect-mediated modulation of optoelectronic properties. However, the systematic roles of copper precursor fraction and deposition time in governing phase evolution, off-stoichiometry, and recombination dynamics in aerosol-assisted chemical vapour deposition (AACVD)-grown undoped CAS thin films remain insufficiently understood. In this work, undoped CAS thin films were deposited by AACVD using Cu(dedtc)2 and Sb(dedtc)3 single-source precursors at 550 °C and a carrier gas flow rate of 150 sccm, while the Cu(dedtc)2 mole fraction (x = 0.15 – 0.55) and deposition time (1 – 2 hours) were systematically varied to probe how growth kinetics influence phase composition, microstructure, and defect-mediated optical properties without post-deposition annealing or extrinsic doping. Increasing copper precursor content drives phase evolution toward tetrahedrite-dominant CAS films at intermediate Cu(dedtc)2 mole fractions, with the film deposited at x = 0.35 exhibiting the strongest tetrahedrite character within the parameter space examined. The films are also copper-rich, antimony-poor, and sulphur-deficient, consistent with off-stoichiometric growth and intrinsic defect formation, plausibly including copper interstitials, Cu-on-Sb antisites, and sulphur vacancies. These growth-dependent compositional deviations are accompanied by tunable indirect optical bandgaps of approximately 1.60 – 2.18 eV and weak visible photoluminescence governed by defect-mediated recombination. Time-resolved photoluminescence reveals bi-exponential decay behaviour with lifetimes of approximately 0.1 – 3.6 ns, with emission dominated by slower donor–acceptor pair recombination and a smaller contribution from faster trap-assisted pathways. Collectively, these results establish an explicit kinetic process–structure–defect–property relationship for AACVD-grown CAS thin films and provide a growth–structure–property framework relevant to future optimization of CAS-based optoelectronic and energy materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI1988

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 29, No. 3, July-September 1988]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 259 Fifteenth Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting by E. G. Silver; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 284 Reliability Technology to Improve and/or Maintain Emergency Diesel Generator Performance by S. Karimian and J. H. Taylor, 293 A Noise Diagnostics System for Operator Advice by G. Hessel, P. Liewers, P. Schumann, W. Schmitt, and F.-P. Weiss; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 307 A Passive Containment System for Advanced Light-Water Reactors by O. B. Falls, Jr., and F. W. Kleimola; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 318 Data Base Construction for a Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System by L. M. Hively, J. E. Nyquist, J. L. Bledsoe, and A. L. Sjoreen, 326 Erratum to "Radiation Hormesis and Nuclear Safety," Vol. 29, No. 1; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 327 Operational Safety Experience and Passive Safety Testing at the Fast Flux Text Facility by Q. L. Baird, J. L. Rathbun, D. D. Stepnewski, R. L. Stover, and A. E. Waltar, 344 Backfilling of Independent Residual Heat Removal Systems in West Germany and Switzerland by G. Eckert and Y. Salomon, 353 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 356 Selected Safety-Related Events Compiled by G. A. Murphy, 363 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 384 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E. G. Silver, 390 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 395 Status of Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Licensing Review Compiled by E. G. Silver, 400 Proposed Rule Changes as of Mar. 31,1988; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 283 International ENS/ANS Conference on Thermal Reactor Safety "NUCSAFE 88", 317 Northwestern University Short Course on Radiation Safety, 407 Second International Seminar on Small- and Medium-Sized Nuclear Reactors, 407 International Workshop on New Developments in Occupational Dose Control and ALARA Implementation at Nuclear Power Plants and Similar Facilities, 408 Fourth International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-4), 404 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mild-Annealed Molecular Layer Deposition (MLD) Tincone Thin Film as Photoelectrochemically Stable and Efficient Electron Transport Layer for Si Photocathodes

Metalcone thin films, composed of inorganic–organic hybrids, are synthesized using molecular layer deposition (MLD) through reactions between organometallic precursors (e.g., Sn, Al, and Ti) and organic reactants (e.g., ethylene glycol and glycerol). Despite their unique properties, metalcones exhibit significant vulnerability to water due to their organic components, limiting their potential in electrochemical applications. This study focuses on enhancing the photoelectrochemical stability of tincone thin films in aqueous electrolyte while preserving their hybrid characteristics through mild annealing in air at 250 °C. As-deposited and vacuum-annealed tincone thin films exhibited significant degradation under these conditions, while high-temperature-annealed (500 °C) tincone thin films offered improved stability with a significant decline in charge transfer efficiency. In contrast, mild annealing in air maintained the C–O bond at half level and improved the stability and charge transport without compromising the unique characteristics of tincone. This was confirmed by ellipsometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Mild-annealed tincone deposited on a lightly doped p-type silicon (p-Si) photocathode produced a 20-fold increase in CO volume compared to high-temperature annealed tincone in a CO 2 -saturated potassium bicarbonate (KHCO 3 ) electrolyte with dispersed graphene oxide–cobalt phthalocyanine (GO-CoPc) under 1 sun illumination at 0.9 V vs reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE), while maintaining the faradaic efficiency for CO and H 2 . These results suggest that mild-annealed tincone thin films hold significant potential as protective charge transport layers on silicon photocathodes for the aqueous CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR).

Annealing (metallurgy)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Method of tuning physical properties of thermosets

Polymerization-induced phase separation enables fine control over thermoset network morphologies, yielding heterogeneous structures with domain sizes tunable over 1-100 nm. However, the controlled chain-growth polymerization techniques exclusively employed to regulate morphology at these length scales are unsuitable for most thermoset materials typically formed through step-growth mechanisms. By employing binary mixtures in place of the classic constituents of phase-separating thermosets—resin, curing agent, and secondary polymer—facile tunability over morphology can be achieved through a single compositional parameter. Indeed, this method yields morphologies spanning nano-scale to macro-scale, controlled by the relative reactivities and thermodynamic compatibility of the network components. Due to the connection between chain dynamics and microstructure in these materials, the tunable morphology enables exquisite control over glass transition and other physical and mechanical properties.

Jones, Brad Howard↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coercivity enhancement in hematite/permalloy heterostructures across the Morin transition

Interfacial effects between antiferromagnetic (AFM) and ferromagnetic (FM) materials have long been a center of magnetism studies. Aside from the exchange bias occurring at the AFM/FM interface, controlling the coercivity is another significant topic in magnetic recordings. The coercivity of FM materials is often determined through varying grain size, alloy composition, density of defects, etc., which is set during material growth and offers limited room for modification after growth. Hematite (α - Fe 2 O 3 ) is an AFM material that undergoes a temperature-controlled spin-flip transition, the so-called Morin transition. This transition gives an extra degree of freedom making hematite an intriguing component to study the exchange coupling when interfaced with an FM material. Here, in this work, changes in the magnetic properties of soft magnetic permalloy (Ni 81 Fe 19 , or Py) thin films grown on hematite were studied across the Morin transition. Surprisingly, these samples showed a remarkable change in coercivity during the Morin transition. We attribute this effect to the magnetic domain mixture of hematite during the Morin transition. Our findings present a novel method of controlling the coercivity of plain ferromagnetic thin films.

Antiferromagnet↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final Report: Process Intensification of Hydrogen Production through Sorption-Enhanced Gasification of Biomass

The University of Utah, in partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), evaluated Sorption-Enhanced Gasification (SEG) as a transformative pathway for producing hydrogen with the potential for negative CO 2 emissions. SEG integrates gasification, water-gas shift, and in-situ carbon capture within a dual fluidized bed reactor to enable efficient clean hydrogen production. Key challenges related to biomass variability and process complexity were addressed through feedstock engineering, reaction optimization, and process validation. A co-pelletized biomass–limestone feedstock was developed to simplify feeding and introduction of makeup limestone. Kinetic and sorbent studies identified optimal operating conditions and confirmed the suitability of low-cost limestone, while catalysts were developed to reduce tar formation. Reactor modeling and techno-economic analysis indicated that SEG can achieve competitive hydrogen production costs, particularly when combined with carbon incentives, supporting its potential for scale-up and carbon-negative operation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI1978

Plant Engineers Solar Energy Handbook: Southern California Region

Discussed in order after the introduction are solar components and systems (collectors, storage, service hot water systems, space heating with liquid and air systems, space cooling, heat pumps and controls); computer programs for system optimization; local solar and weather data; a description of buildings and plants in Southern California applying solar technology; current Federal and California solar legislation; standards, codes and performance testing information; a listing of manufacturers, distributors, and professional services available in Southern California region; and information access. Finally, solar design check lists for those engineers who wish to design their own systems. The program for the Solar Workshop for the Plant Engineer, March 30, 1978, Los Angeles, California is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Throughput Uniformity and Defect Monitoring in Low-Temperature Electrolysis Porous Transport Layers Using X-Ray Radiography

Effective quality control (QC) for manufacturing proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) components is critical to enabling widespread adoption of the technology for hydrogen generation. This study investigates X-ray radiography as a novel, high-throughput, potentially in-line QC technique for detecting defects and assessing material property distributions in titanium-based porous transport layers (PTLs) which constitute a crucial component of low temperature PEMWE stacks. We obtain radiographs of a set of fifteen PTLs and model their absorbance of the broadband radiation as a second-order polynomial to account for the non-monoenergetic radiation source used in this study. The resulting model serves as a basis for predicting the areal density and porosity distributions of the PTLs. We find radiography successful in detecting multiple instances of defects, including holes/depressions, cracks, and excess material on the surface or in the pores of the material, demonstrating its potential as a robust in-line QC tool for PTL manufacturing.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Aliovalent gallium dopants remove Ti 3+ defects and improve photocatalytic and photoelectrochemical water oxidation properties of LaTiO 2 N

LaTiO 2 N is a promising semiconductor for the water splitting reaction due to its 2.1 eV band gap and stability against corrosion. However, its solar energy conversion is limited by Ti 3+ recombination defects introduced during ammonolysis. Here we show for the first time that Ti 3+ defects in LaTiO 2 N can be suppressed with incorporation of 2, 5, and 10% aliovalent gallium (Ga 3+ ) dopants during synthesis via the layered La 2 Ti 2 O 7 intermediate. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy on the solid powders confirms a reduction in the Ti 3+ donor density from 2.97 × 10 17 cm −3 for the non-doped material to ∼6.24 × 10 16 cm −3 for 5% Ga-doped LaTiO 2 N. The remaining Ti 3+ defects are concentrated near the LaTiO 2 N surface, according to X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The defect reduction shifts the optical absorption edge from 2.02 to 2.09 eV and eliminates a broad absorption band at 1050 nm from the optical absorption spectra. It also removes a 1.0–1.7 eV sub-band gap photovoltage signal from surface photovoltage spectra. This suggests that empty Ti 3+ d-orbitals are located 1.0–1.7 eV above the LaTiO 2 N valence band edge. Removing these recombination states with increasing Ga 3+ content enhances the photoconversion efficiency of LaTiO 2 N during water oxidation. The optimized 2 wt% CoO x -loaded 5% Ga-doped LaTi O2 N material has a 16% AQE (400 nm) for O 2 production from aqueous silver nitrate solution and a ∼2.1 mA cm −2 water oxidation photocurrent at 1.23 V under 100 mW cm −2 Xe arc lamp illumination. The water oxidation photocurrent is stable during a 50 min test, and the Faraday efficiency for O 2 generation is 97%, confirming short-term corrosion stability of LaTiO 2 N. Altogether, these results provide a better understanding of the distribution, concentration, and impact of Ti 3+ defects on the optical, photovoltage, and photoelectrochemical properties of LaTiO 2 N. In combination with other defect control strategies, aliovalent Ga 3+ doping can help bring the solar energy conversion efficiency of LaTiO 2 N closer to the theoretical limit.

Wang, Li [University of California, Davis, CA (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗