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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1984

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology that has both performance and durability benefits. In order to achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Prediction of the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry is examined. The plasma sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor depositon (EB-PVD) process by Temescal.

Strangman, T. E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of non-equilibrium ionization and excitation on radiation absorption in plasma plumes induced by ablation of metal targets with nanosecond laser pulses

Ionization and radiation absorption in nanosecond laser-induced plasma plumes are routinely modeled using the Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium ionization model (EQM). However, the equilibrium assumption can be inaccurate during the laser pulse when non-equilibrium effects significantly impact radiation absorption. In the present work, the EQM and non-equilibrium collisional-radiative model (CRM) are compared to reveal the effect of plasma non-equilibrium on radiation absorption in non-homogeneous plumes and degree of plasma shielding. Simulations of plume expansion induced by irradiation of a copper target in 1 atm argon background gas with a 10 ns Gaussian pulse at a fluence from 8 Jcm −2 to 14 Jcm −2 are performed with a hybrid computational model that couples a lumped particle direct simulation Monte Carlo method with either CRM or EQM. The simulations show that the EQM strongly underestimates the effects of ionization and radiation absorption compared to CRM and, contrary to the CRM, predict strong ionization of the background gas. The differences between the models are explained by the qualitatively different coupling between plume expansion and dynamics of ionization and exitation processes in the CRM and EQM under conditions when the characteristic times for most radiation- and electron-induced processes are longer than the pulse duration. The CRM-based predictions are also found to agree much better with available experimental data. In conclusion, these results indicate that the model of Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium cannot be used for reliable prediction of the degree of plasma shielding in plumes induced by nanosecond laser pulses or for processing results of spectroscopic measurements at early stages of expansion of such plumes.

Physics - Plasma physics↗
NASA NTRS2001

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Buoyancy Driven Convection During PDAMNA Thin Film Growth

This paper presents results from numerical simulations as well as laboratory experiments of buoyancy driven convection in an ampoule under varying heating and gravitational acceleration loadings. The modeling effort in this work resolves the large scale natural convective motion that occurs in the fluid during photodeposition of polydiacetelene films which is due to energy absorbed by the growth solution from a UV source. Consequently, the growth kinetics of the film are ignored in the model discussed here, and also a much simplified ampoule geometry is considered. The objective of this work is to validate the numerical prediction on the strength and structure of buoyancy driven convection that could occur under terrestrial conditions during nonlinear optical film growth. The validation is used to enable a reliable predictive capability on the nature and strength of the convective motion under low gravity conditions. The ampoule geometry is in the form of a parallelepiped with rectangular faces. The numerical results obtained from the solution to the Boussinesq equations show that natural convection will occur regardless of the orientation of the UV source with respect to the gravity vector. The least strong convective motion occurred with the UV beam directed at the top face of the parallelepiped. The strength of the convective motion was found to be almost linearly proportional to the total power of the UV source. Also, it was found that the strength of the convective motion decreased linearly with the gravity due to acceleration. The pattern of the convective flow on the other hand, depended on the source location.

Antar, Basil N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting antimicrobial resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa with machine learning-enabled molecular diagnostics

Limited therapy options due to antibiotic resistance underscore the need for optimization of current diagnostics. In some bacterial species, antimicrobial resistance can be unambiguously predicted based on their genome sequence. In this study, we sequenced the genomes and transcriptomes of 414 drug-resistant clinical Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates. By training machine learning classifiers on information about the presence or absence of genes, their sequence variation, and expression profiles, we generated predictive models and identified biomarkers of resistance to four commonly administered antimicrobial drugs. Using these data types alone or in combination resulted in high (0.8–0.9) or very high (> 0.9) sensitivity and predictive values. For all drugs except for ciprofloxacin, gene expression information improved diagnostic performance. Our results pave the way for the development of a molecular resistance profiling tool that reliably predicts antimicrobial susceptibility based on genomic and transcriptomic markers. Finally, the implementation of a molecular susceptibility test system in routine microbiology diagnostics holds promise to provide earlier and more detailed information on antibiotic resistance profiles of bacterial pathogens and thus could change how physicians treat bacterial infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for LBNF Beam Diagnostics

This paper focuses on developing a machine learning model for predicting initial beam parameters for the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) beamline using downstream muon monitor data. Parameters such as proton beam position on target, sigma on target, focusing horn current, and focusing horn tilt are parameters we anticipate to be predictable based on the muon monitors. Uncertainty in initial beam condition measurements are a major contributor to uncertainty in downstream flux, and over operation time beam misalignment can occur [1]. A machine learning model has promise to detect anomalies along the beamline based on discrepancies between predicted configurations and measured configurations, and thus can expedite error detection and handling. A PyTorch neural network is defined, trained, and tested. The developed model currently does not provide reliable predictions, with the lowest loss being 0.09.. Further steps to improve the model’s accuracy are discussed, as well as future plans to detect anomalous beam conditions using a digital twin.

O'Brien, Bridget [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can a simple topological-constraints-based model predict the initial dissolution rate of borosilicate and aluminosilicate glasses?

Tuning glass composition to obtain targeted properties generally relies on empirical approaches. However, a deep understanding of the physical and chemical mechanisms linking glass composition to its structure and properties would enable developing reliable predictive models. Indeed, although empirical models are usually able to interpolate composition–property relationships within a given compositional envelope, they often fail at extrapolating predictions far from their training domain. Here, as an alternative route to empirical models, we show that a structural descriptor based on the number of topological constraints per atom can be used to predict the initial dissolution rate of aluminosilicate and borosilicate glasses after being parameterized on different families of glasses (specific series of borosilicate glasses). Sixteen glasses belonging to these families were studied and their initial dissolution rates were determined at 90 °C and pH 90 °C = 9, covering rates spanning over 5 orders of magnitude. The model based on topological constraints was trained based on seven select borosilicate glasses (R 2 = 0.997) and used to predict the dissolution rate of nine additional borosilicate and aluminosilicate glasses. We show that, provided that corrections are made for high alkali content glasses that dissolve incongruently (preferential release of Na), the model gives reasonable predictions, even far from its training domain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved scaling law for the prediction of deuterium retention in beryllium co-deposits

Hydrogen isotope co-deposition with Be eroded from the first wall is expected to be the main fusion fuel retention mechanism in ITER. Since good fuel accounting is crucial for economic and safety reasons, reliable predictions of hydrogen isotope retention are needed. Furthermore, this study builds upon the well-established empirical De Temmerman scaling law that predicts D/Be ratios in co-deposited layers based on deposition temperature, deposition rate, and deuterium particle energy. Expanding the data used in the original development of the scaling law with an additional dataset obtained with more recent measurements using a different technique to the original De Temmerman approach, allows us to obtain new values for free parameters and improve the prediction capabilities of the new scaling law. In an effort to improve the model even further, scaling with D 2 background pressure was included and a new two-term model derived, describing D retention in low- and high-energy traps separately.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1996

ACTS Propagation Measurements in Maryland and Virginia

Rapid growth in new satellite services incorporating very small aperture terminals (VSAT) and ultra small aperture terminals (USAT) is expected in the coming years. Small size terminals allow for widespread use of satellite services in small business and domestic applications. Due to congestion of lower frequency bands such as C and Ku, most of these services will use Ka-band (2/20 GHz) frequencies. Propagation impairments produced by the troposphere is a limiting factor for the effective use of the 20/30 GHz band and the use of smaller Earth terminals makes it difficult to provide sufficient link margins for propagation related outages. In this context, reliable prediction of propagation impairments for low margin systems becomes important. Due to the complexity of propagation phenomena propagation modeling is mainly attempted on an empirical basis. As such, the availability of reliable measured data that extend to probability levels well in excess of the traditional limit of 1 percent is of great importance in the development, validation, and refinement of propagation models. The beacon payload on the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) together with the propagation measurement terminals developed under the NASA ACTS propagation program provide an excellent opportunity to collect such data on a long-term basis. This paper presents the results of ACTS propagation measurements conducted in the Washington, DC metropolitan area by COMSAT Laboratories.

Dissanayake, Asoka↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural Engineering and Accelerated Test Method Development to Achieve Low Cost, High Performance Solutions for Hydrogen Storage and Delivery

This project made advancements in developing lower cost steel alloys with novel microstructural design for use in hydrogen refueling infrastructure such as storage, compressors, and dispensing components, and utilizing accelerated test methods to efficiently evaluate variations in alloy and microstructure design. The project specifically sought to design alloys with lower nickel contents to reduce alloy cost, which was accomplished through substituting manganese for nickel along with other alloy additions to control deformation characteristics known to be important for hydrogen embrittlement resistance. Through Mn substitutions for nickel, austenitic and duplex austenite-ferrite steels were successfully developed with lower cost than currently available commercial stainless steel products that are employed for hydrogen refueling infrastructure. The steels were processed to achieve comparable strength and toughness in hydrogen environments as the commercially available steels containing high Ni contents. To evaluate mechanical performance in hydrogen, a testing methodology was employed to compare ubiquitous laboratory testing using electrochemical hydrogen charging in a liquid electrolyte to less accessible high pressure gaseous testing. While the application of these steels is in high pressure gaseous environments, the electrochemical hydrogen charging tests produced comparable results. Additionally, the Los Alamos Neutron Scatting Center enabled characterization of deformation mechanisms of the steel alloys in the presence of hydrogen, which has been associated with steel alloy characteristics associated with hydrogen embrittlement. Finally, a fracture mechanics based test bed model was developed to predict the influence of hydrogen gas pressure and fatigue conditions on fatigue lifetimes of pressure vessel steels. Together, these developments can be employed to enable lower cost hydrogen fueling infrastructure and more reliable prediction of steel alloy components in hydrogen service conditions. In particular, the newly alloys have the potential to replace stainless steels, having demonstrated comparable performance at substantially reduced cost.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1985

Overview of helicopter wake and airloads technology

An overview of helicopter aerodynamics technology is presented with emphasis on rotor wake and airloads methodology developed at the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC). The evolution over the past twenty years of various levels of computerized wake geometry models at UTRC, such as undistorted wake, prescribed empirical wake, predicted distorted wake, and generalized wake models for the hover and forward flight regimes, is reviewed. The requirement for accurate wake modeling for flow field and airload prediction is demonstrated by comparisons of theoretical and experimental results. These results include blade pressure distributions predicted from a recently developed procedure for including the rotor wake influence in a full potential flow analysis. Predictions of the interactional aerodynamics of various helicopter components (rotor, fuselage, and tail) are also presented. It is concluded that, with advanced computers and the rapidly progressing computational aerodynamics technology, significant progress toward reliable prediction of helicopter airloads is forseeable in the near future.

Landgrebe, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) Assessment Results Based On Sludge Batch 10 Projections from December 2021, February 2022 and August 2022

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently preparing to initiate processing of Sludge Batch 10 (SB10), which is comprised of material from Tanks 11H, 13H, 15H, and 26F, Alternate Feed Stock-2 and Sodium Reactor Experiment material from H-Canyon. Frit 473 (8B 2 O 3 -8Li 2 O-5Na 2 O-79SiO 2 , in weight percent) was recommended for sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) based on previous assessments of SB10 projections with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) glass property models and their associated Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) constraints. Due to the lower processing rate of Sludge Batch 9 (SB9), the heel in Tank 40 is anticipated to be greater than 40 inches at the projected start of SB10 processing to meet the upcoming Accelerated Basin Deinventory addition dates in Tank 51 for Sludge Batch 11. In December 2021 and February 2022, Savannah River Remediation System Planning provided updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projections based on heels of 74 inches, 84 inches, 94 inches and 103.4 inches. Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) subsequently pursued Wash Cycle Y to further reduce the total sulfur in the sludge batch and increase processing flexibility at DWPF. In August 2022, SRMC System Planning provided an updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projection with a 76 inch-heel representing Decant Y2 and 60 kilogallons of bearing water inleakage that is anticipated during the Tank 51 to Tank 40 transfer. The objectives of this task were to: • Determine the impact on the operating windows for SO and coupled processing • Determine whether any composition gaps exist between the already completed SB10 variability study and the reprojected SB10 glass composition region • Compare the SB10 reprojected glass composition region to the DWPF PCCS model development and validation ranges to ensure that compositional gaps do not exist between the data sets. This report documents the results of these evaluations. Calculation-based frit assessments were performed using the DWPF PCCS glass property models and their associated MAR constraints. Evaluated parameters for coupled processing included the following transfer volumes per Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank batch: 5700 gallons of Tank 40 sludge, 2400-4500 gallons of the SWPF monosodium titanate (MST) and sludge solids stream, and 15,000 gallons of strip effluent. Based on these MAR assessment results, Frit 473 remains viable for SB10 processing. A target waste loading (WL) of 36% is possible for SO operation and single strike (0.4 g/L MST) coupled processing up to 600 mg/L of SB9 insoluble sludge solids at a nominal transfer volume of ~2800 gallons. Increasing the single strike transfer volume to 4500 gallons may reduce the maximum WL below 40%. Operating windows are 12 percentage points for SO processing and 14-16 percentage points for coupled processing. Frit 625 allows for a target WL of 36% and is acceptable for use during the SB9 to SB10 transition to deplete remaining inventory as needed. Operating windows are 8 percentage points for SO processing and 12-14 percentage points for coupled processing. Predictive PCCS evaluations performed at DWPF will provide insight into batch-specific acceptability at desired WLs for compositions having expected oxide ratios during processing versus the extreme vertices (corner points) evaluated in this study. The reprojected SB10 glass composition region generally overlaps the previously evaluated SB10 variability study composition region. Thus, the minor composition shift of these updated SB10 projections indicates that no additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate acceptability relative to the chemical durability of the Environmental Assessment benchmark glass and predictability using the current PCCS models for durability. Based on a comparison of the PCCS model development and validation data to the reprojected SB10 glass composition region, the viscosity and liquidus temperature models will reliably predict SB10 compositions. No additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate predictability of these models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2026

Mechanical Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Exposed to Cryogenic Conditions and Space Radiation via Simulation and Testing

As NASA missions extend beyond low Earth orbit, increasing reliance is placed on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites for spacecraft structures where mass efficiency, durability, and long-term reliability are critical. In service, these materials are subjected to a combination of ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, ionizing radiation, atomic oxygen, and extreme thermal excursions under sustained mechanical loading. Flight systems such as the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon employ external composite structures that will experience these environments for extended durations. Although prior spaceflight and ground studies have reported limited changes in bulk mechanical properties, the synergistic effects of these environments on composite microstructure, particularly at the fiber matrix interphase, remain insufficiently characterized and represent a potential qualification and reliability risk. This study investigates the effects of short-term cryogenic exposure on a radiation shielding carbon epoxy composite, SC2020, as a ground-based analog for space relevant thermal extremes. The SC2020 material system has previously flown on the International Space Station under the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) program. Composite specimens were exposed to liquid nitrogen for 6 and 24 hours and evaluated using a multiscale characterization framework that combined ASTM D3039 tensile testing, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) based interphase analysis, and helium gas permeability measurements. Tensile testing showed no statistically significant or permanent degradation in global strength or modulus following cryogenic exposure. In contrast, AFM measurements revealed reductions in interphase modulus, weakened adhesion, and increased nanoscale heterogeneity, indicating localized degradation mechanisms not captured by conventional bulk testing. Gas permeability measurements showed a progressive increase in helium diffusion with exposure duration, consistent with micro-void formation or partial interfacial debonding. The results indicate that cryogenic exposure initiates degradation at the fiber matrix interphase while leaving global mechanical properties largely unchanged over short durations. These findings underscore the importance of multiscale diagnostics for identifying early-stage damage mechanisms that may influence long term performance and qualification margins for spaceflight composite structures. The data presented establish a cryogenic baseline for comparison with forthcoming MISSE flight exposure results and support ongoing NASA Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) efforts aimed at improving composite qualification methodologies, risk assessment, and reliability prediction for space environments.

composite reliability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simplified Green-Ampt Model, Imbibition-Based Estimates of Permeability, and Implications for Leak-off in Hydraulic Fracturing

Predicting water imbibition into porous materials is important in a wide variety of fields, and hydraulic fracturing of low permeability hydrocarbon reservoirs has emerged as an application that is imposing a large water footprint. Furthermore, reliable predictions of imbibition are needed to better manage water use, yet are challenging because of uncertainties in both the permeability and capillary pressure driving force. Here, this uncertainty is reduced through evaluating correlations between the permeability and the effective capillary pressure associated with the wetting front, P c,f . These correlations allow elimination of P c,f from the Green and Ampt equation and concentrate all uncertainties in fluxes on the effective permeability k . Over a wide range of k and porosities n , imbibition scales approximately with k 1/3 . Although Leverett k 1/4 scaling for predicting P c,f is shown to be inferior when tested with data spanning a wide range of n , it nevertheless predicted imbibition fairly well. From simple imbibition measurements, both the empirical and Leverett scaling approaches allow estimates of k that have root-mean-square deviations of about one order of magnitude relative to measurements that ranged over 10 orders of magnitude in k .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storage cell

Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low Earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storge cell

Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗