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Results for “Reliability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Demand response of loads having thermal reserves

Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.

Ren, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Numerical Modeling Approaches on Damped Behavior of Flexible Beams: Preprint

Composites structures are widely used in aerospace and wind energy applications for their excellent stiffness and strength-to-weight properties. In these structures, structural damping is critical to predict vibration amplitudes, performance, and reliability. Structural damping is of particular interest for slender wings, rotorcraft blades, and wind turbine blades that can exhibit complex vibration phenomena and are frequently modeled with geometrically exact beam theory (GEBT). Standard approaches of stiffness proportional or modal damping merely assign user defined values and cannot predict damping behavior. This work compares stiffness proportional damping to two more advanced damping approaches: modal strain energy and Prony series. The modal strain energy approach uses a sectional analysis tool to calculate the beam stiffness and postprocess internal stresses from GEBT simulations. The internal stresses are then used to calculate modal damping factors. The Prony series is implemented within GEBT to directly model viscoelastic behavior of the composites. These approaches are compared by modeling the evolution of the damping factors of a realistic flexible wind turbine blade with varying rotational speed. Discrepancies between the approaches suggest areas for future modeling development, but differences in nonlinear damping values are less than current uncertainties about the magnitude of structural damping.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synchronous Machine Governor Upgrade

Conventional generation sources play a critical role in the stability and reliability of the electrical grid, particularly as we transition towards more renewable energy sources. To understand and accurately emulate their behavior for optimizing grid operations and ensuring seamless integration with renewable technologies, it is essential to better emulate the grid- and plant-level impacts of conventional generation sources, such as natural gas (NG) driven heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) and combustion turbines (CTs). Therefore, a governor model is developed in a programmable logic controller (PLC) to investigate the performance of the conventional generator under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify the impact on grid stability in a controlled environment. The governor model aims to enable the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based emulation of these conventional generation sources using the existing 2 MVA synchronous machine/generator that is driven by a flexible 2.5 MW variable speed drive. This setup will allow us to replicate the dynamic characteristics and response behaviors of NG-driven HRSGs and CTs. The controls for the emulated conventional plants follow the industry standard and are adjustable, ensuring they accurately reflect the operational capabilities and limitations of real-world systems. These controls include load-following capabilities, ramp rates, startup and shutdown sequences, and emissions characteristics. By incorporating these adjustable controls, we aim to capture the nuanced impacts of conventional generation, such as their ability to provide ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve. In this report, we simulate two types of dynamic operations: grid-connected and islanding. For each dynamic operation, representative starting sequences are tested, including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramping up, generator excitation and synchronizing, and breaker close. The HIL based tests provides insights for field deployment, specifically the high-fidelity governor model provides results to predict the potential stability and reliability risk and suggest possible integration measures (e.g., generation and load balancing, tuning of governor control parameters). Ultimately, this enhanced emulation capability will be integrated into our Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), enabling us to conduct comprehensive studies on the interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources. By better understanding these interactions, we can develop strategies to optimize the overall performance and reliability of the grid. This will support the deployment of advanced grid management techniques, such as demand response, grid-forming inverters, and energy storage systems. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (1) This report introduces a PLC-based governor model for gas turbines. This model accurately simulates the dynamic behavior of conventional generation sources under various operational scenarios; (2) The model is integrated with an HIL testbed that includes a 2.5 MW variable speed drive and a 2 MVA synchronous machine. This setup enables realistic, real-time emulation of conventional power plants, particularly NG driven HRSGs and CTs; (3) The developed model is adaptable to various gas turbine configurations and allows for precise control over parameters such as MW ramp rates. This flexibility makes it a valuable tool for future research and industry collaboration; and (4) By incorporating the model into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems, the report lays the groundwork for future studies on interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources, enhancing the ability to develop advanced grid management strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the factors influencing accuracy, interpretability, and reproducibility in the use of machine learning classifiers in biology to enable standardization

The complexity and variability of biological data has promoted the increased use of machine learning methods to understand processes and predict outcomes. These same features complicate reliable, reproducible, interpretable, and responsible use of such methods, resulting in questionable relevance of the derived. outcomes. Here we systematically explore challenges associated with applying machine learning to predict and understand biological processes using a well- characterized in vitro experimental system. We evaluated factors that vary while applying machine learning classifers: (1) type of biochemical signature (transcripts vs. proteins), (2) data curation methods (pre- and post-processing), and (3) choice of machine learning classifier. Using accuracy, generalizability, interpretability, and reproducibility as metrics, we found that the above factors significantly mod- ulate outcomes even within a simple model system. Our results caution against the unregulated use of machine learning methods in the biological sciences, and strongly advocate the need for data standards and validation tool-kits for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Redox Noninnocence of Metallocorroles: Exploring K-Edge X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Spectroscopy with a Multiconfigurational Wave Function Approach

X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) is an advanced technique for probing the local electronic structure of catalysts, effectively identifying the noninnocent nature of ligands in transition-metal complexes. Metallocorroles with noninnocent corrole rings exhibit unusual electronic structures that challenge traditional density functional theory (DFT) methods, necessitating more rigorous approaches to describe electron correlation accurately. We explored K-edge XANES spectra of Fe, Mn, and Co metallocorroles using TDDFT and wave function-based methods. This is the first investigation employing multireference methods, specifically RASSCF, RASPT2, and MC-PDFT, to analyze the redox noninnocent nature of metallocorroles reflected in their XANES spectra. We quantified the noninnocent character of the corrole and the oxidation states of the metals, capturing more than singly excited excitations responsible for the pre-edge peak. Our findings demonstrate the importance of these advanced computational techniques for accurately predicting XANES spectra, providing a reliable understanding of the electronic properties of such complexes. In conclusion, this study offers a new strategy for investigating ligand redox noninnocence via integrated experimental and computational XANES.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermally induced PtOx interfacial layer enhances stability of Pt/β-Ga2O3 vertical Schottky diodes

This study investigates the long-term stability of Pt/β-Ga2O3 field-plated Schottky barrier diodes at high temperatures, with extended thermal cycling and soaking stress. The device characteristics reveal a strong dependence on operating temperature, leading to an ON/OFF current ratio of ∼10× at ±3 V and 600 °C. Extensive thermal cycling (25 cycles over 100 h) between room temperature and 350 °C shows that leakage currents stabilize after the initial ten cycles. This stabilization is likely due to the formation of a thin PtOx layer at the Pt/β-Ga2O3 interface, as confirmed by high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy. Further exposure to a constant 350 °C environment for 10 h reveals a slight increase in the leakage current from 10−7 to 10−6 A at −5 V and degradation of the forward current, due to potential thermodynamic instability of the Ohmic contacts. This study provides insights into the changes in the Pt/β-Ga2O3 diode performance with thermal stress, offering a basis for predicting the device’s operational reliability at high temperatures for sensing and power applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for warm dense matter physics

This roadmap presents the state-of-the-art, current challenges and near future developments anticipated in the thriving field of warm dense matter (WDM) physics. Originating from strongly coupled plasma physics, high pressure physics and high energy density science, the WDM physics community has recently taken a giant leap forward. This is due to spectacular developments in laser technology, diagnostic capabilities, and computer simulation techniques. Only in the last decade has it become possible to perform accurate enough simulations & experiments to truly verify theoretical results as well as to reliably design experiments based on predictions. Consequently, this roadmap discusses recent developments of and contemporary challenges for theoretical methods and experimental techniques needed to describe, create and diagnose WDM. A large part of this roadmap is dedicated to specific WDM systems and applications in astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion and novel material synthesis.

dense astrophysical objects↗
DOE OSTI2025

Roadmap for warm dense matter physics

This roadmap presents the state-of-the-art, current challenges and near future developments anticipated in the thriving field of warm dense matter physics. Originating from strongly coupled plasma physics, high pressure physics and high energy density science, the warm dense matter physics community has recently taken a giant leap forward. This is due to spectacular developments in laser technology, diagnostic capabilities, and computer simulation techniques. Only in the last decade has it become possible to perform accurate enough simulations \& experiments to truly verify theoretical results as well as to reliably design experiments based on predictions. Consequently, this roadmap discusses recent developments and contemporary challenges that are faced by theoretical methods, and experimental techniques needed to create and diagnose warm dense matter. A large part of this roadmap is dedicated to specific warm dense matter systems and applications in astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion and novel material synthesis.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

FFTF HT9 Cladding Microstructure Characterization

The sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) is a promising candidate for next generation nuclear reactors, operating at extreme conditions which include high temperatures (>500?C core outlet temperature) and significant neutron damage. High-Cr martensitic HT9 steel is an excellent candidate for SFR cladding and duct material due to its compatibility with liquid sodium, good thermal conductivity, resistance to void swelling, and strong creep rupture strength [1-4].However, the harsh in-core environment of SFRs can cause complex microstructural changes and mechanical property degradation in HT-9. Ensuring the safe use of HT9 cladding for metallic fuel requires both a thorough understanding of its mechanical response to microstructure evolution as well as reliable microstructure-sensitive modeling predictions. Microstructure-sensitive modeling of high temperature creep behavior in HT9 cladding for SFR applications currently lack experimental data to model the phenomena accurately. To fill this need, methods to perform microstructural characterization have been developed and performed on HT9.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive turbulence-driven flux model of scrape-off layer widths across confinement regimes in tokamaks

Reliable scrape-off layer (SOL) profile decay lengths predictions are needed to design and operate future tokamaks. The present manuscript describes a new model based on turbulent transport that is able to predict SOL widths for both L-mode and H-mode plasmas. The model is based upon the sheared-spectral filament paradigm (Peret et al (WEST Team) 2022 Phys. Plasmas 29 072306), however, incorporating the effects of thermal transport in order to calculate the parallel heat fluxes. The effects of magnetic shear and ExB shear on the cross-field transport are crucial to explain the shorter SOL decay lengths found in H-mode. The model is validated against a database of thousands of DIII-D L-mode and H-mode SOL profiles. We also calculate SOL decay length predictions in terms of plasma and engineer control parameters, which are in agreement with the multi-machine empirical H-mode scaling (Eich et al (ASDEX Upgrade Team and JET EFDA Contributors) 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 093031), however, with an additional device geometry dependence. ITER SOL width predictions by the model are 3 times higher than the empirical scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

CrossMP: Enabling Cross-Modality Translation between Single-Cell RNA-Seq and Single-Cell ATAC-Seq through Web-Based Portal

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in profiling multiomic modalities within individual cells simultaneously. One such example is integrating combined single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data and single-cell transposase-accessible chromatin sequencing (scATAC-seq) data. Integrated analysis of diverse modalities has helped researchers make more accurate predictions and gain a more comprehensive understanding than with single-modality analysis. However, generating such multimodal data is technically challenging and expensive, leading to limited availability of single-cell co-assay data. Here, we propose a model for cross-modal prediction between the transcriptome and chromatin profiles in single cells. Our model is based on a deep neural network architecture that learns the latent representations from the source modality and then predicts the target modality. It demonstrates reliable performance in accurately translating between these modalities across multiple paired human scATAC-seq and scRNA-seq datasets. Additionally, we developed CrossMP, a web-based portal allowing researchers to upload their single-cell modality data through an interactive web interface and predict the other type of modality data, using high-performance computing resources plugged at the backend.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

OC6 Phase IV: Validation of CFD Models for Stiesdal TetraSpar Floating Offshore Wind Platform

ABSTRACT With only a few floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) farms deployed anywhere in the world, FOWT technology is still in its infancy, building on a modicum of real‐world experience to advance the nascent industry. To support further development, engineers rely heavily on modeling tools to accurately portray the behavior of these complex systems under realistic environmental conditions. This reliance creates a need for verification and validation of such tools to improve reliability of load and dynamic response prediction and analysis capabilities of FOWT systems. The Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was created under the framework of the International Energy Agency to address this need and considers a three‐sided verification and validation between engineering level models, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and experimental results. In this paper, a novel floating offshore wind platform, the Stiesdal TetraSpar, is simulated using CFD under the load conditions defined by Phase IV of the OC6 project. The comparison of these CFD results against the experimental results demonstrated the ability to predict the platform response to waves when imposing the measured wave signals as input. Although validation versus experiment was largely successful, the damping behavior was impacted by uncertainties likely originating from the mooring system and sensor umbilical cable. This extensive comparison effort with multiple CFD practitioners offers insight into best practices to achieve reliable results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗